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Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

991 replies

MagicFox · 09/05/2024 13:25

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

**
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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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265
MagicFox · 11/05/2024 11:29

Good piece by Keir Giles via Chatham House: www.chathamhouse.org/2024/05/uk-should-not-rule-out-sending-troops-ukraine-despite-putins-nuclear-threats

OP posts:
WinterMorn · 11/05/2024 12:19

Great article, thank you. I think time will judge the West harshly for continually showing our hand early.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 11/05/2024 15:29

Ministry of Defence
@DefenceHQ

The UK is delivering its largest ever military aid package to Ukraine. Alongside Β£500m in military funding, the UK is providing vital equipment:4 million round of ammunitionMore than 1,600 missiles400 vehicles - including 160 Husky vehicles

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 11/05/2024 15:39

That's great news - I thought Cameron had said we had no more equipment left that we could give? Or is that after this delivery maybe.

notimagain · 11/05/2024 15:39

Love to know what’s the deal with the 1600 missiles….

I’m not sure Uk Forces had that many on a good day before all this started.

Igotjelly · 11/05/2024 15:45

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 11/05/2024 15:39

That's great news - I thought Cameron had said we had no more equipment left that we could give? Or is that after this delivery maybe.

Never know what you’ll find down the back of the couch! πŸ˜‚

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 11/05/2024 17:06

Bought in from other places?

MissConductUS · 11/05/2024 17:15

notimagain · 11/05/2024 15:39

Love to know what’s the deal with the 1600 missiles….

I’m not sure Uk Forces had that many on a good day before all this started.

Training rounds instead of war shots, possibly? Or 30 year old kit way past the expiration date is another possibility. I saw one report that about a third of the NLAWs the UK supplied wouldn't fire.

Or maybe it's maskirovka (strategic disinformation) meant to keep the Russians on the back foot and wondering the same thing.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 11/05/2024 17:57

I saw one report that about a third of the NLAWs the UK supplied wouldn't fire.

Bloody hell. Reliable report?

Natsku · 11/05/2024 19:22

MissConductUS · 11/05/2024 17:15

Training rounds instead of war shots, possibly? Or 30 year old kit way past the expiration date is another possibility. I saw one report that about a third of the NLAWs the UK supplied wouldn't fire.

Or maybe it's maskirovka (strategic disinformation) meant to keep the Russians on the back foot and wondering the same thing.

Those all sound like possibilities, though old kit sounds the most likely.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 11/05/2024 19:30

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, Syniehubov, reported that all Russian offensive attacks in the north of Kharkiv region had been repelled and that no territory had been lost. Residents of the territories adjacent to the border were urged to evacuate.

The critical phase of the war will come in the next two months, β€” the Commander of the Ukrainian ground forces.
The enemy is now looking for the most favorable direction for its offensive. Meanwhile, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing ten new brigades to fight back.
β€œRussia knows that if we get enough weapons within a month or two, the situation could turn against them,” said Oleksandr Pavliuk, commander of the Ukrainian ground forces.

The U.S. State Department has approved the emergency sale of three HIMARS missile launchers to the government of Ukraine for approximately $30 million.

According to Welt am Sonntag, the European Union has reached an agreement on security guarantees for Ukraine, encompassing political, military, and economic assistance. Journalists from the German publication have had access to the document agreed upon by EU ambassadors.
The draft agreement is currently undergoing finalization by the European External Action Service and the Ukrainian government. It is expected to come into effect before July and remain valid until Ukraine's accession to the European Union and NATO.
The agreement ensures that Kyiv will receive immediate consultations from the EU in the event of new attacks on Ukraine, provided such consultations are pre-approved by both parties. However, direct participation of European soldiers alongside the Ukrainian army in such attacks is indirectly excluded.
Brussels also pledges further deliveries of both lethal and non-lethal weapons, soldier training, assistance in security force reform, demining efforts, collaboration in countering hybrid threats and cyberattacks, and extensive support for infrastructure restoration in Ukraine.

Great Britain provides Ukraine with the largest military aid package in history β€” the Ministry of Defense.
The package will include 500 million pounds (about $626 million) for military needs, as well as:
▫️four million ammunition;
▫️more than 1,600 missiles;
▫️400 vehicles, including Husky armored vehicles.

As of May, Russia has deployed 52 Iskander missile launchers along the border with Ukraine, LIGA net reports, citing sources in the Security and Defense Forces.

Foreign Affairs reports that drone strikes on Russian refineries have proven more effective than Western sanctions, according to international experts.
The experts suggest that Ukraine should continue these attacks, as they have effectively shut down refineries, compelling Russia to export more crude oil. This, in turn, is expected to lead to a decrease in world oil prices rather than an increase, contrary to concerns from the United States.

President Zelenskyy extended a personal invitation to the president of Argentina for the peace summit. However, it remains unclear whether the invitation was accepted.

France is set to provide Ukraine with long-range SCALP missiles as part of the Chrysalis program, according to RFI. Expired missiles will be sent to French factories for refurbishment, with the aim of making them operational within three months.
It is anticipated that approximately 40 missiles could be made available to Ukraine through this process.

Latvia will transfer drones and radar defense systems of its own production to Ukraine, β€” Ukrainian Ambassador to the country Anatoly Kutsevol in an interview with Ukrainian media.
Kutsevol added that Ukraine and Latvia are also developing a coalition for the production of 155 mm shells. According to him, there are other areas of cooperation, but "from a security point of view, they cannot be named now.

The Security Service of Ukraine prevented terrorist attacks planned by the Russian GRU on May 9th in Kyiv, according to Artem Dekhtyarenko, spokesman for the Security Service.

Due to the use in Ukraine and Israel, there was a shortage of missiles for Patriot systems in the world, β€” the German publication NZZ.
... The volume of Patriot missile production does not currently meet demand.

Russia’s campaign to kidnap, indoctrinate, and militarize Ukrainian children reveals a strategy of weaponizing childhood itself, deliberately targeting the most vulnerable. https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/kidnap-brainwash-militarize-the-playbook-of-russias-war-on-ukrainian-children-246

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ This is what Ukraine will receive in the new aid package from the US for $400 million

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 11/05/2024 19:47

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

A military base is being built near the Belarusian city of Osipovichi, 190 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, where Russians can store nuclear weapons.
This was reported by The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/10/world/europe/russia-nuclear-weapons-belarus.html after it studied satellite images from Maxar. The images show a high-security area surrounded by a three-layer fence. The base has been covered by air defense since mid-2023, with one of the air defense systems deployed in a field about a kilometer and a half from the bunker. There is also a part of the base that houses Iskanders.

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡± Poland has started https://www.tvp.info/77469782/podlasie-spotkanie-premiera-z-zolnierzami-i-funkcjonariuszami-strazy-granicznej** building fortifications and strengthening its border with Belarus
These fortifications will be built along the country's eastern border.

Russian TV presenter Artyom Sheinin traveled to the town of Popasnaya (Lugansk oblast), captured by Russia at May 2022
He filmed that the town is completely destroyed. In 2 years Russia has not rebuilt anything there at all.
They just destroyed and abandoned this town. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/20838

A Ukrainian defender with the aurora borealis near the frontline

Russians have blown up another dam. This time in the Kharkiv Oblast

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 12/05/2024 11:20

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️Kharkiv governor: Heavy fighting ongoing but no threat of ground invasion of city. https://kyivindependent.com/kharkiv-governor-heavy-fighting-underway-but-no-threat-of-ground-invasion-of-city/

⚑️Russia claims capture of five villages in Ukraine's Kharkiv Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-capture-of-five-villages-in-ukraines-kharkiv-oblast/
In a briefing, the Russian Defense Ministry said Russian troops were now in control of Pletenivka, Ohirtseve, Borysivka, Pylna, and Strilecha, all within two kilometers of the border. The Kyiv Independent could not verify the Russian Defense Ministry's claims.

A military spokesperson said fighting was continuing in the Lyptsi and Vovchansk directions and Ukrainian forces were hunting down Russian troops he said were hidden in forested areas. https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-forces-in-kharkiv-oblast-contained-fighting-continues/

⚑️Tens of thousands rally in Tbilisi https://kyivindependent.com/thousands-rally-in-tbilisi-to-protest-georgias-foreign-agents-bill/ to protest Georgia's 'foreign agents' bill.
Around 50,000 protesters marched through Georgia's capital on May 11 in the latest of the series of demonstrations against the government's "foreign agents" bill, Deutsche Welle reported.

⚑️ Russian attacks against Vovchansk area kill 2 civilians, injure 2.
⚑️ Russian missile attack on Sumy outskirts kills woman.
⚑️Russia attacks 10 communities in Sumy Oblast.
⚑️Governor: Russian attacks on Kharkiv Oblast kill 3, injure 5 over past day.

⚑️ Russia claims 1 killed, 29 injured in Ukrainian attack against Belgorod Oblast.
An overnight drone attack caused a brief fire at an oil refinery in Russia's Volgograd region, Governor Andrey Bocharov reported on Telegram.

⚑️Over 300 people evacuated from border areas of Kharkiv Oblast https://kyivindependent.com/over-300-people-evacuated-from-border-areas-of-kharkiv-oblast-minister-says/ minister says.

⚑️Ukraine takes third place at Eurovision 2024 https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-takes-third-place-in-eurovision-2024/
Switzerland has won the 68th Eurovision Song Contest with the song "The Code" performed by Nemo.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

  • MAY 12, 2024
β–  Most engagements so far in 2024, 3rd highest since start β–  High casualties but equipment below 7-day average β–  More πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί strikes, fewer πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ ones β–  Oryx: 39 πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί 30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ added to records (net addition); 30-day ratio down to 2.5x
Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 12/05/2024 11:27

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

According to Yonhap, North Korea plans to supply Russia with its latest 240-mm Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) for use in the conflict against Ukraine.
The report indicates that Pyongyang is accelerating the development of ammunition for these systems, anticipating their deployment in actual combat in Ukraine before potentially targeting South Korea.
The updated MLRS boasts high mobility, concentrated firepower, and an automatic integrated fire control system. It is slated to be introduced into service with units of the Korean People's Army as replacement equipment between 2024 and 2026.

In Tbilisi, since the beginning of the protests, the most numerous action for the repeal of the law on "foreign agents" was held. More than a hundred thousand protesters took to the streets of the Georgian capital.
According to drone footage, between 169,000 and 200,000 people attended the rally on Europe Square in Tbilisi and nearby streets. [significantly different number claim from the Kyiv Independent's]

In Germany, NATO countries are being proposed to assist in shooting down drones over Ukraine to alleviate the burden on Ukrainian air defense, reports the German publication FAZ
Experts from the Munich Security Conference, including Niko Lange and former assistant NATO Secretary General Horst-Heinrich Braus, suggest that deploying air defense systems in Poland and Romania could create a secure zone up to 70 kilometers wide.

According to The Spectator, the military economy of the Russian Federation, engineered by Putin, remains under sanctions, and its collapse may be imminent, contingent upon actions taken by the West.
The article highlights China's growing dominance as Russia's primary trade partner and technology supplier since 2022, potentially surpassing the EU. Increased military spending has stimulated overall economic growth within Russia. Direct military expenditures as a percentage of GDP surged from 2.7% in 2021 to 6% in 2024.
However, this growth is fueled by government spending on military production, which drives consumer spending and tax revenues. Yet, the funding primarily stems from the export of oil and raw materials. Although the West initially attempted to curtail Russia's export revenues while maintaining the oil flow to Western markets, these efforts have been insufficient.
Russia has successfully redirected its sales to Asia, particularly to India and China, compensating for the loss in European markets. Nonetheless, this shift has resulted in increased costs and complexities in equipment procurement.
The high demand for labor and limited access to Western technologies have led to a decline in labor productivity by 3.6% in 2022, alongside reduced capital investments by companies, anticipating lower profits and higher taxes.
The article concludes that a potential drop in oil prices or further increases in sales costs may diminish state revenues and subsequently military expenditures, ultimately leading to the collapse of the military-driven economic model.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 12/05/2024 11:42

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Not much!

blueshoes · 12/05/2024 13:03

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-11-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian forces are conducting relatively limited offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast and continued to make tactically significant gains in likely less defended areas. The reported sizes of the Russian elements committed to these limited operations and of the Russian force grouping deployed along the border in northeastern Ukraine indicate that Russian forces are not pursuing a large-scale operation to envelop, encircle, or seize Kharkiv City at this time.
  • Russian forces reportedly launched offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast before they had completed bringing the Northern Grouping of Forces up to its reported planned end strength and have so far only committed a limited amount of combat power to offensive operations in the area.
  • ISW continues to assess that the Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast likely aim to draw Ukrainian forces from other sectors of the front while allowing Russian forces to advance to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command may be evaluating the risks, prospects, and timeline of offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast based on the assumption that Ukraine cannot and will not be able to liberate territory seized by Russian forces. Putin's and the Russian military command's calculus about the threat of Ukrainian territorial gains is likely shaping Russia's overall operational approach to seizing territory in Ukraine.
  • The limited Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast suggest that the resumption of US security assistance has not changed Putin's calculus or that he launched the Kharkiv effort without reassessing the operation's fundamental assumptions about Ukrainian capabilities in light of the resumption of aid.
  • The directions of Russian offensive operations in the international border area suggest that Russia may be attempting to create a "buffer zone" to protect Belgorod City, as Russian and Ukrainian officials have recently stated.
  • Russian forces appear to be attempting to quickly isolate the battlespace east of the Siverskyi Donets River and seize Vovchansk, a direction of advance that Russian forces may believe could threaten the Ukrainian grouping defending in the Kupyansk direction.
  • Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin reiterated a series of Kremlin narratives intended to justify Russia's invasion of Ukraine and attempted to flatter Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military during an interview in honor of the 10th anniversary of the DNR's founding, likely in an attempt to curry favor in the Kremlin.
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against a Russian oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast on the night of May 10 to 11.
  • Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin submitted proposals on the composition of the new Russian government to the State Duma on May 11.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast; near Svatove, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City; in western Zaporizhia Oblast; and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to highlight frontline Russian units fighting in Ukraine.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
blueshoes · 12/05/2024 14:18

Heartwarming FT article on the good work by brave volunteers from UK. Article is behind a paywall so I have posted extracts below.

https://www.ft.com/content/71253232-ebc3-4479-b7ba-5098a69005fc

On the road to Lviv with the β€˜donkeys of war’

A small band of volunteers driving donated pick-up trucks and 4x4s from Britain that the charity Pickups for Peace has supplied to Ukraine.

So why had we β€” a motley band of farmers, business people, ex-army officers and retirees from all over the UK β€” chosen to spend our weekend in Lviv?

They call them β€œdonkeys of war”. Or, more prosaically, small logistics. The vehicles that provide a fast and flexible link between the front line and the rear, that can ferry people and supplies quickly to where they are needed over any terrain. And* *carry casualties to field hospitals. Think the Willys Jeep in the second world war.

Mark Laird, a farmer from Angus in Scotland, the founder and chief executive of CPG, had an idea.

So was born Pickups for Peace, now a registered charity that to date has delivered nearly 350 second-hand pick-ups, 4x4s, vans and ambulances from the UK to Ukraine, all stuffed with medical supplies and other equipment. They are not shipped in car transporters or containers. They are all driven out by private individuals over the 2,000km to Lviv in convoys marshalled by P4P.

β€œWe’ll keep going until the war is over,” ... More than 550 volunteer drivers have joined its convoys to date.

Some donate and drive their own vehicles. Some buy their own and some raise funds for P4P to buy trucks on the second-hand market. The average paid is about Β£5,000.

β€œDonkeys of war” are hardly Patriot missiles, or F-16 fighter jets or other sophisticated military kit that could help the Ukrainians turn the conflict in their favour again. But perhaps, in its own small way, a group that grew out of the Angus glens, and its bashed-up old pick-ups, can make a difference in a brutal war being waged only a couple of days’ drive away against a people who just want to live like we do. That’s why we came.

[Article by Hugh Carnegy is an FT senior editor. He made the trip in a personal capacity]

notimagain · 12/05/2024 15:25

On that theme an ex-UK Forces guy who was doing supply runs into Ukraine started writing short accounts of his trips on an ex-mil forum….

Turns out he’s a bit of natural as a writer and his jottings turned into this:

https://www.amazon.fr/Next-Door-Journeys-Into-Ukraine/dp/1738497003#customerReviews

blueshoes · 12/05/2024 19:09

@notimagain thanks for signposting to the book. I have just bought the kindle edition of The War Next Door, My journeys into Ukraine, by Will Blackburn.

I saw one of the comments was "Beautifully written, often heart-breaking but ultimately restores your faith in humanity". We could all do with a bit of that.

Makes me feel a bit lame that my peace time skills aren't much use in a brutal war other than to raise funds.

notimagain · 12/05/2024 19:15

Just realised that link is to the French site so glad it worked.

WinterMorn · 12/05/2024 20:09

Just in

WinterMorn · 12/05/2024 20:10

Just in

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
MagicFox · 12/05/2024 20:17

Oh wow

OP posts:
WinterMorn · 12/05/2024 20:17

And Patrushev out!

MagicFox · 12/05/2024 20:18

@nicolegrajewski

Shoigu appointed to Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Patrushev dismissed... Peskov says Shoigu will also serve as Putin’s deputy in Russia’s Military-Industrial Commission

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