Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

[MagicFox]

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers 🇺🇦

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Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Germany will buy three HIMARS multiple rocket launchers for Ukraine, the country's defense minister announced on May 9. Speaking during a trip to Washington, Boris Pistorius said they would be purchased from the U.S. and handed over to Kyiv. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-to-buy-3-himars-for-ukraine/

⚡️Bloomberg: The U.S. Pentagon is preventing the Russian military from using Starlink internet terminals operated on the battlefield in Ukraine, John Plumb, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy at the U.S. Department of Defense, said in an interview with Bloomberg on May 9. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-pentagon-blocks-russian-military-from-accessing-starlink-in-ukraine/

⚡️Czech president says first batch of shells to arrive in Ukraine in June. https://kyivindependent.com/czech-ammunition-arrive-june/ [On schedule then]

⚡️Zelensky: Ukraine will be able to blunt the Russian offensive if its allies increase weapons supplies, he said on May 9. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-will-regain-battlefield-initiative-if-more-weapons-arrive/

⚡️Source: Ukraine strikes https://kyivindependent.com/source-sbu-stikes-russian-oil-refinery-1-500-kilometers-away/ Russian oil refinery 1,500 kilometers from border.
A long-range drone operated by Ukraine's State Security Service (SBU) attacked an oil refinery, Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat, in Russia's Republic of Bashkortostan on May 9, an SBU source told the Kyiv Independent.

⚡️Bloomberg: Russian tycoons move assets home amid Western sanctions.
Some Russian billionaires have given up trying to keep their money in the West and are now resigned to bringing it back to Russia where it faces the ever-present risk of being seized by the Kremlin, Bloomberg reported on May 8. https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-rich-russians-face-inheritance-dilemma/

⚡️Zelensky congratulates newly elected North Macedonian president.

Sweden will allocate 28 million euros to several funds to support Ukraine's defense capabilities, the country's Defense Ministry announced on May 9. https://kyivindependent.com/sweden-to-allocate-28-million-euros-for-ukraines-defense/

⚡️Ukraine increases restrictions https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-increases-restrictions-on-energy-supply-for-business-industry-amid-power-shortage/ on energy supply for business, industry amid power shortage.

⚡️Kyiv city officials to limit street lighting to save electricity.
Kyiv city officials will begin reducing evening street lighting after Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy system caused major power shortages throughout the country, Serhii Popko, the head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, announced on May 9. https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-city-officials-to-limit-street-lighting-to-save-electricity/

⚡️Germany will provide Ukraine with 45 million euros for energy restoration. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-will-provide-ukraine-with-45-million-euros-for-energy-restoration/

⚡️Zelensky dismisses https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-dismisses-head-of-state-security-administration/ head of State Security Administration (UDO), Serhii Rud, according to a presidential decree published on May 9.

⚡️Zelensky signs laws on general mobilization, extension of martial law. kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-laws-on-mobilization-extension-of-martial-law/

The number of military-age men caught fleeing Ukraine and attempting to cross into Slovakia more than doubled in the first four months of 2024, compared with the same period of 2023, the Slovak border police said on May 9.
https://kyivindependent.com/slovakia-number-of-ukrainian-men-caught-fleeing-more-than-doubles-in-a-year/

⚡️Zelensky, von der Leyen discuss EU accession and peace summit. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-and-ec-president-discuss-eu-accession-and-peace-summit/

2030 is a very real date for Ukraine to join the European Union, Katarina Mathernova, the EU ambassador to Ukraine, said in an interview on May 9.

⚡️Court arrests deputy agriculture minister in theft case. https://kyivindependent.com/court-detains-of-deputy-minister-suspected-of-illegal-acquisition-of-state-owned-land/

⚡️Orban says he supports the Chinese peace plan.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he supports the "Chinese peace plan" during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Budapest on May 9.

⚡️Russian attacks kill 2, injure 13 in Ukraine over past day.
⚡️Update: Russian attack on Nikopol kills 2, injures 8.
⚡️Russian attacks on Kharkiv Oblast injure 2.
⚡️Russian forces attack Sumy Oblast 302 times in one day.
⚡️Multiple explosions heard in Kharkiv, Mykolaiv Oblast.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-9-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin used his May 9 Victory Day speech to relitigate his belief that the West is attempting to erase the Soviet Union's contributions to defeating Nazi Germany during the Great Patriotic War (Second World War), a grievance that is at the core of Russia's adversarial perceptions of the West.
• Putin seized on a recent meeting with the commanders of several frontline Russian formations to portray himself as an informed and effective Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, aware of the intricacies of the frontline situation and involved in finding solutions to issues that plague Russian forces.
• Putin surrounded himself with a number of foreign officials at the Victory Day parade, likely in order to posture himself as an effective statesman capable of galvanizing an alternative coalition to the power structures of the collective West.
• Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed that the Moldovan government is engaged in a Nazi-like "genocide" in Moldova — a notable inflection in Kremlin officials' rhetoric about Moldova that is likely meant set conditions for a Russian effort to secure control over Moldova and not just some of its regions.
• The leaders of the pro-Kremlin Moldovan Victory opposition electoral bloc attended the Victory Day parade in Moscow, further indicating that the Kremlin intends to use these actors to destabilize all of Moldova and attack Moldova's democracy and EU accession process.
• Russian forces have markedly increased the rate of ground attacks in eastern Ukraine over the past month, likely reflecting current battlefield conditions and the intent of the Russian military command to secure gains before the arrival of Western military aid to the frontlines.
• Russian border guards are withdrawing from much of Armenia as Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan continues to face domestic backlash for decisions regarding Nagorno-Karabakh.
• The Kremlin may seek to capitalize on opposition outrage in Armenia to punish Pashinyan for increasingly pulling away from Russia.
• Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) conducted long-range drone strikes against Russian oil depots and refinery infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai and the Republic of Bashkortostan on May 9.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
• Russian forces continue to struggle with discipline in their ranks, with some Russian soldiers reportedly killing other members of their units.

Following

Thanks

Here's an interesting essay from a historian in the WSJ on why Trump, if elected, may not simply abandon Ukraine.

Trump Is Unlikely to Abandon Ukraine—and Might Dangerously Escalate the War - The former president admires Putin and sees the Ukraine war as a burden on the U.S. But if re-elected, he would have powerful reasons to prevent a Russian victory.

Trump sent Ukraine weapons, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, before the Russian invasion because he had political reasons to do so. I've heard Ukrainian leaders point to this as an indication that they don't think a Trump victory in the election would mean an end to American assistance.

Something big seems to be happening around Kharkiv area. Rumours of Russia undertaking a big push and claiming about 1km of territory in a bid to create a buffer zone.

Re Kharkiv - this from Jade McGlynn on Twitter:

We are going to hear a lot of disinformation today about new RU offensive in Kharkiv region. I only know three things:

1. they don’t have the men to take Kharkiv
2. nobody in Kharkiv is panicking
3. Russia is to blame but so is Western complacency to Ukrainian deaths

Kyiv Independent Telegram Update

Russian forces attempted a breakthrough of Ukraine's line of defense in Kharkiv Oblast at 5 a.m. local time, the Defense Ministry reported on May 10. https://kyivindependent.com/kharkiv-2/

⚡️Civilian casualties reported amid intense Russian attacks https://kyivindependent.com/civilian-casualties-kharkiv-oblast/ in Kharkiv Oblast.

⚡️ Media claim Russia captures 4 border villages https://kyivindependent.com/media-russia-captures-4-border-villages-in-kharkiv-oblast/ in Kharkiv Oblast, governor says no ground lost.

⚡️ Commander: 'Critical phase https://kyivindependent.com/commander/ in Russia's war to come in next 2 months.

⚡️US includes 37 Chinese entities to trade blacklist https://kyivindependent.com/us-includes-37-chinese-entities-to-trade-blacklist-due-to-national-security-concerns/ due to national security concerns.
Apart from 11 companies reportedly connected to the 2023 spy balloon incident, 22 were added to the list because they were linked to China's efforts to improve its quantum technology.

Belarus Weekly: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called on a meeting of the country’s special services to discuss alleged Russian and Belarusian infiltration of the Polish state apparatus. https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-weekly-tusk-calls-emergency-meeting-after-polish-judge-flees-to-belarus/

⚡️Source: Military intelligence drones strike oil refinery https://kyivindependent.com/source-military-intelligence-strikes-oil-refinery-with-drones-in-russias-kaluga-oblast/ in Russia's Kaluga Oblast.

⚡️Russian attack on Sumy Oblast kills 64-year-old injures her granddaughter.

While Xi tours Europe, China feeds Russia's war machine
As Chinese President Xi Jinping toured Europe this week to discuss Ukraine and trade, China remains Russia's leading source of sanctioned dual-use goods, fueling the ongoing war.
"Around 90% of the goods deemed high priority products by the Western countries... (was) supplied by China" as Chinese-made products or re-exported goods in 2023, a sharp rise from 30% in 2021, Nathaniel Sher, a senior research analyst at Carnegie China, told the Kyiv Independent. https://kyivindependent.com/china-russia-dual-use-goods/

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

5 EU countries have signed an agreement in Vilnius to strengthen monitoring of sanctions against Russia.
These are Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland. The Finnish customs announced the signing of the agreement. The agreement will strengthen and unify the EU's control over compliance with visa requirements for Russia.

The first €4 million of the Slovak civic initiative will be used to purchase 2,600 shells for Ukraine, — České noviny.
The agreement is scheduled to be signed this month, and the ammunition is to be delivered to Ukraine as soon as possible, but no later than the end of August.

Expansion plans in Europe for Roshel entail establishing plants and hubs in both Germany and Ukraine. According to Colby Bedvar, CEO of Roshel, the company already has repair hubs in Ukraine and is nearing completion of the localization process for production in the country.
Roshel, a Canadian company specializing in manufacturing armored vehicles of the MRAP class, has delivered over a thousand vehicles to Ukraine.

✈️🇨🇿 The Czech Republic handed over the first F-16 fighter simulator to one of its tactical aviation brigades; its main module is already being tested and prepared for operation by Ukrainian specialists.

Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová arrives in Kyiv on a visit.

Lviv neurosurgeons removed a mine fragment from the brain of a 9-year-old boy from Kherson.
On December 31, 2023, Mykhailo was injured in the head during a shelling of the city, while his 11-year-old friend was killed on the spot.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

At 5 a.m., Russian troops attempted to break through Ukrainian defense lines in Kharkiv oblast, the Defense Ministry said. As of now, these attacks have been repelled, and fighting of varying intensity continues. Reserve units were sent to strengthen the defense.
In the Vovchansk sector, the enemy is using aircraft to drop KABs.
▪️The DeepState analytical project, which has recently been cooperating with the Ministry of Defense, writes that the enemy is trying to enter and gain a foothold along the border, in particular in the villages of Strilecha, Krasne, Pylyna, and Borysivka. There are also attempts to enter the settlements of Hatyshche and Pletenivka.
The main enemy forces are currently infantry supported by artillery and aviation. Armored vehicles are coming in small numbers.
▪️Meanwhile, the population is being evacuated from the Vovchansk community, the head of the administration, Tamaz Gambarashvili, told Hromadske Radio. Most people are leaving by their transport.

🇸🇰 Almost 2.7 thousand artillery shells will be purchased https://www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/prvni-ctyri-miliony-eur-ze-slovenske-sbirky-pro-ukrajinu-pujdou-na-nakup-munice/2515865for the first 4 million euros raised by Slovaks for Ukraine - České noviny

Magura V5 naval drones have caused more than $500 million in damage to the Russian Black Sea Fleet

A clear example of why you can't touch anything in the de-occupied territories. Anything can be mined. [absolutely terrifying - a washing machine powder compartment - hand grenade would go off as you open it; a pull down oven door mined; https://t.me/liveukraine_media/20805 ]

An illustration of Russian propaganda today. Fantasies about bombing the Pentagon.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• MAY 10, 2024

■ Fewer engagements; casualties dip below 1,000 ■ Equipment losses well above average; notable MLRS losses ■ Air & artillery strike ratio combined due to GSUA reporting ■ Poternet: +199 🇷🇺 names added to database

Ukraine's next big package of military aid is being put together now. I'd expect the details to be public in a week or so.

By the way, the rate of Russian casualties tells me that the ammo shortage at the front lines is largely gone at this point. I also saw a report that Ukrainian artillery troops have received large numbers of 155mm shells in the last two weeks.

https://insightnews.media/the-us-prepares-a-new-defense-aid-package-for-ukraine/

Reckon this one will get through quicker given Johnson appears to have found his balls and MTG’s attempt to oust him failed miserably?

No action by Congress is required. When they approved the $61B in aid a few weeks ago, that should cover everything we can send the Ukrainians for the rest of the year. The total cost of the first tranche that has already gone out was only $1B or so.

Now it's just a question of logistics and availability of the supplies.

Ah right it’s part of the drawdown from that same packages

Correct. They'll need to start working on the next funding package in the fall. The point of doing a large one now was mostly to take it off the table as an election issue.

Thank you for the new thread @MagicFox and thank you to all the contributors and lurkers for still being here as the time goes on. 💙💛

Here for it 👍🇺🇦

Belated check-in, thanks to everyone who keeps the thread updated.

Welcome all and thanks for filling up the last thread @PerkingFaintly!

Russia has started a spring offensive and opened another front in Kharkiv

Earlier than expected :/ trying to get in before the US weopons arrive I suppose.

Damn you Mike Johnson.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-10-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces began an offensive operation along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of May 10 and made tactically significant gains. Russian forces are likely conducting the initial phase of an offensive operation north of Kharkiv City that has limited operational objectives but is meant to achieve the strategic effect of drawing Ukrainian manpower and materiel from other critical sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine.
• Russian forces will likely leverage their tactical foothold in northern Kharkiv Oblast in the coming days to intensify offensive operations and pursue the initial phase of an offensive effort likely intended to push back Ukrainian forces from the border with Belgorod Oblast and advance to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City.
• The limited efforts that Russian forces are currently conducting do not suggest that Russian forces are immediately pursuing a large-scale sweeping offensive operation to envelop, encircle, and seize Kharkiv City, however.
• Russian offensive operations along the Kharkiv international border likely have the strategic objective of drawing and fixing Ukrainian forces to this axis to enable Russian advances in other areas of eastern Ukraine.
• ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will likely struggle to seize Kharkiv City should they aim to do so.
• Russian forces likely decided to launch offensive operations along the international border area to take the best advantage of the relatively brief time left before Western aid arrives at the Ukrainian frontline at scale.
• Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk stated that the war in Ukraine will enter a critical phase in the next two months and commented on recent Russian advances around Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka.
• US President Joe Biden approved up to $400 million worth of military assistance for Ukraine as part of the Presidential Drawdown Authority Fund on May 10.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on the night of May 9 to 10 against an oil refinery in Kaluga Oblast that Ukrainian forces previously struck in March 2024.
• Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is retaining his position in the Russian government for Russian President Vladimir Putin's new term of office, and there have been speculations but no confirmations of changes to Putin's cabinet.
• US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb stated that US defense officials partnered with SpaceX to stop the Russian military's unauthorized use of Starlink internet terminals in frontline areas of Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• Russian and Belarusian authorities continue to illegally deport Ukrainian citizens, including children, to Russia and Belarus.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Big Kharkiv offensive by the Russians.

⚡️ Zelensky: Heavy fighting ongoing along front line more troops will be sent to Kharkiv sector.

⚡️General Staff reports Russian attacks in 8 areas of front line. https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-reports-russian-attacks-in-8-directions/

⚡️ Military: Russia unsuccessfully tries to break through in Donetsk, Luhansk oblasts.
Russian forces are unsuccessfully trying to break through near the Serebryanskyi forest and in the Lyman area in northeastern Ukraine, Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesperson of the Khortytsia group of forces, said on national television on May 10. https://kyivindependent.com/official-russian-forces-constantly-storming-settlements-in-donetsk-luhansk-oblasts/

Ukrainian defenders are fighting off Russian forces in the Lyptsi and Vovchansk directions in the north of Kharkiv Oblast as Moscow deploys infantry and heavy equipment.
There are ongoing battles for "gray zone" border settlements of Strilecha, Pylne, and Borysivka, as well as in the sectors of Oliinykove and Ohirtseve, the General Staff said. https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukraine-counterattacks-in-kharkiv-oblasts-lyptsi-vovchansk-sectors/

⚡️ Military: Russia's Kharkiv Oblast operation aims to divert Ukrainian forces from Donetsk Oblast. The uptick in Russia's activity at Kharkiv Oblast's border is part of a psychological operation aimed at pulling Ukrainian forces from hot areas in the east, Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesperson of the Khortytsia group of forces, told the Hromadske media outlet on May 10. https://kyivindependent.com/spokesperson-russias-activity-in-kharkiv-oblast-part-of-psychological-operation-to-divert-ukraines-forces/

⚡️Over 1,700 civilians evacuated from Kharkiv Oblast over past day. https://kyivindependent.com/over-1-700-civilians-evacuated-from-kharkiv-oblast/

⚡️ Update: Pentagon unveils content of $400 million aid https://kyivindependent.com/biden-approves-400-million-defense-aid-package-for-ukraine/ package for Ukraine: -
ammunition for Patriot and NASAMS air defenses,
Stinger anti-aircraft missiles,
HIMARS systems and ammunition,
155 mm and 105 mm artillery shells,
equipment to integrate Western launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukrainian systems.
It further contains Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, M113 armored personnel carriers, Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles, trailers, TOW missiles, Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank launchers, precision aerial munitions, High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs), and other equipment.

⚡️ Czechia places Russian GRU general Major General Andrey Averyanov linked to ammunition depot blasts on wanted list. https://kyivindependent.com/czechia-declares-russian-gru-officer-wanted-over-2014-ammunition-depots-blasts/
The country's investigators believe that Averyanov coordinated the supposed Russian sabotage operation in 2014 that led to ammunition depot explosions in the eastern Czech town of Vrbetice, killing two people and causing damages in tens of millions of dollars.

⚡️ Canada pledges $56 million https://kyivindependent.com/canada-pledges-56-million-to-boost-ukraines-air-defenses/ to German-led air defense initiative for Ukraine.

⚡️ Minister: Belgium to allocate nearly $10 million for Ukraine's energy infrastructure restoration https://kyivindependent.com/minister-belgium-to-allocate-nearly-10-million-for-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-restoration/

Ukraine received an emergency electricity supply from Poland, Romania, and Slovakia amid an ongoing power shortage following Russia's attacks on energy infrastructure, the Energy Ministry reported on May 11 https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-emergency-energy-supply-from-europe/

⚡️ Commander: Ukraine to create 10 new brigades to defend Kyiv, other areas. https://kyivindependent.com/commander-ukraine-to-create-10-new-brigades-to-defend-kyiv-among-other-settlements/

⚡️ PM Shmyhal: Ukraine allocates $179 million https://kyivindependent.com/shmyhal-government-allocates-179-million-to-restore-energy-system/ for energy system restoration.

⚡️Czechia provides Ukraine over $800,000 for forestry development. https://kyivindependent.com/czechia-provides-ukraine-over-800-000-for-forestry-development/

⚡️Defense Ministry: 9 Ukrainian robots have operated https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-9-ukrainian-robots-have-operated-on-battlefield-since-start-of-2024/ on battlefield since start of 2024.
Nine land-based Ukrainian robotic complexes have been put into operation since the beginning of the year, the Defense Ministry announced on May 10.
The robots perform a variety of battlefield functions, including combat with machine guns, demining, and evacuating wounded soldiers.

⚡️Partisans: Russian unit refuses https://kyivindependent.com/partisans-russian-unit-refuses-to-attack-kharkiv-oblast/ to attack Kharkiv Oblast.

⚡️Romanian police: 11,000 Ukrainian men have illegally crossed border into Romania since February 2022. https://kyivindependent.com/border-police-some-11-000-ukrainian-men-illegally-cross-border-into-romania-since-february-2022/

Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, the Archbishop of Constantinople and the most senior hierarch of the Eastern Orthodox Church, confirmed his participation in the upcoming peace summit in Switzerland, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 10. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ecumenical-patriarch-bartholomew-to-attend-switzerland-peace-summit/

Ukraine pins hopes on international pressure to conduct all-for-all prisoner exchange https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hopes-international-pressure-effects-all-for-all-prisoner-exchange/

The road from death to life: Medics evacuate wounded Ukrainian soldiers amid intensified fighting https://kyivindependent.com/medics-evacuate-wounded-ukrainian-soldiers-amid-intensified-fighting/
In two years, a sunflowers-painted bus, operated by the Hospitallers volunteer medical battalion evacuated more than 4,000 wounded service members.
In busy times, like the Ukrainian summer counteroffensive or battles of Bakhmut or Avdiivka, the bus makes two or three daily trips, each taking up to eight hours.

⚡️Military intelligence releases https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-releases-details-on-paratrooper-rescue-operation/ details on paratrooper rescue operation.

⚡️ Russian attacks on Donetsk Oblast kill 2, injure 2.
⚡️Update: 3 killed, 4 injured in Russian attacks against Kharkiv Oblast.
Russia attacks 9 communities in Sumy Oblast, killing 1, injuring 2.

⚡️Russian media: Attack on oil depot in occupied Luhansk Oblast kills 3, injures 7.
⚡️Drones strike Belgorod, Kursk oblasts, Russian officials say.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
■ Fewer engagements; casualties dip below 1,000
■ Equipment losses well above average; notable MLRS losses
■ Air & artillery strike ratio combined due to GSUA reporting
■ Poternet: +199 🇷🇺 names added to database

From the ISW, the frontline. This will be old; they delay info release for operational reasons.

Absolutely enormous numbers of dead and hardware destroyed today.