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Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

991 replies

MagicFox · 09/05/2024 13:25

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
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265
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 18/06/2024 19:24

They do now and the give broad warnings having said they don't usually predict the future, along the lines of "if the US aid package isn't passed, Russia's going to win".

Igotjelly · 18/06/2024 19:24

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 18/06/2024 19:23

The ISW ... short version; Good, accurate but not unbiased.

It's small (think they only have 5 permanent staff); sometimes conservative in their assessments, usually accurate, pro-Ukraine which has to be taken into account, fairly focussed on Russian milbloggers and the dance between them and the Kremlin; not given to predicting the future as a (occasionally broken) rule. They cover the broad trends of Russian politics, international politics and the military gains and losses of each side.

What they say seems to be confirmed accurate in almost all cases. Being war and sometimes confusion, occasionally they've made mistakes. The staff do take what they do very seriously, having listened to some of their stuff. The generally good quality of their stuff means they've gained a wider and higher profile since the Ukraine invasion.

Can't comment on their non-Ukraine stuff as Ukraine's my focus.

Very thoughtful longer assessment here including info on the founders and their connections to the political figures and industrial base in the US. https://www.quora.com/Is-the-institute-for-the-study-of-war-a-reliable-and-unbiased-source-on-current-conflicts

I think the Institute for War and Peace Reporting is a different thing than the ISW.

Igotjelly · 18/06/2024 19:25

Igotjelly · 18/06/2024 19:24

I think the Institute for War and Peace Reporting is a different thing than the ISW.

https://iwpr.net/

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 18/06/2024 20:00

Oh! doh. thanks @Igotjelly

blueshoes · 18/06/2024 22:54

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-17-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO may take steps to enhance NATO's nuclear deterrence, eliciting varying responses from senior Kremlin officials.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed four deputy defense ministers and replaced them with a β€œclose relative,” the son of a former Russian prime minister, and an economist on June 17 in an ongoing purge of officials in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
  • Tsivileva's, Fradkov's, and Gornin’s appointments support Putin’s recent efforts to introduce his relatives and the children of other senior Russian officials to the Russian public and to install economic advisors to the MoD to improve the wartime economy.
  • Russian milbloggers largely focused on celebrating the dismissal of Pankov, Tsalikov, Shevtsova, and Popov and largely overlooked the apparent nepotism that benefited two of the new deputy defense ministers.
  • A Russian state media outlet manipulated an interview with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi to blame Ukraine for strikes against the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in an attempt to legitimize Russia's illegal occupation of Ukraine.
  • Ukraine's Western partners continue efforts to train more Ukrainian pilots on Western-provided F-16 fighter jets.
  • The Kremlin confirmed on June 17 that Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit North Korea on an official state visit on June 18 and 19.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka.
  • Russia is reportedly experiencing issues with producing artillery shells and select artillery systems.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
MissConductUS · 19/06/2024 12:28

Here's a good article on how Ukrainian drone makers adapt their products to be less vulnerable to Russian EW measures. Near the end of the article, there's also a good video embedded on what steps are being taken to stop or slow the Russian imports of dual-use goods that go into their weapons production.

Drones in Ukraine Get Smarter to Dodge Russia’s Jamming Signals - Electronic warfare is rapidly evolving, pushing drone makers to swap out parts and make craft more autonomous; Western companies are watching closely

blueshoes · 19/06/2024 14:03

@MissConductUS great link. Feels exhausting just reading about drone/EW cat-and-mouse game and Red Queen's race.

My son is choosing courses at uni now and he might go for engineering. Was trying to push him towards drone warfare πŸ˜†. Not even sure what sort of engineering that is.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 19/06/2024 14:05

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️Russia expected to meddle https://kyivindependent.com/russia-expected-to-meddle-in-uk-election-us-senator-warner-says/ in UK election, US Senator Warner warns.
Russia's interference in the upcoming U.K. election will likely "ramp up dramatically" ahead of voting day on July 4, U.S. Senator Mark Warner told reporters on June 18.

⚑️⚑️Russia, North Korea sign strategic partnership https://kyivindependent.com/russia-north-korea-sign-agreement-on-strategic-partnership/ agreement. Under the treaty, the two countries pledge to provide aid to one another if either is attacked, Putin said at a press conference after the signing ceremony.

⚑️Axios: AI chatbots spread https://kyivindependent.com/axios-ai-chatbots-spread-russian-propaganda/ Russian propaganda.
According to the study, leading chatbots including ChatGPT-4 and Meta AI responded with Russian propaganda 32% of the time, citing fake news sites as if they were credible sources.

⚑️'Deliberate delays' to F-16 training will mean more jets than pilots https://kyivindependent.com/delays-to-f-16-training-ukrainian-mp-says/ kyivindependent.com/delays-to-f-16-training-ukrainian-mp-says Ukrainian MP says.
The U.S. is "deliberately delaying" F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots, resulting in a situation where there will be "fewer trained pilots than fighter jets," Ukrainian MP Oleksandra Ustinova said to the Times in an article published on June 17. @notimagain [seems unlikely? is this desperation overtaking her common sense?]

⚑️European human rights court rules against https://kyivindependent.com/european-human-rights-court-rules-against-russian-undesirable-organizations-law/ Russian 'undesirable organizations' law.
A seven-judge panel ruled unanimously that the law violates the convention's articles regarding freedom of assembly and association and freedom of expression.

⚑️ Denmark announces new aid package https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-announces-new-aid-package-for-ukraine-focused-on-f-16s-defense-industry/ for Ukraine focused on F-16s, defense industry

⚑️Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade warns of Russian attempt to capture Borova https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-3rd-assault-brigade-warns-of-russian-attempt-to-capture-borova-kharkiv-oblast/ in Kharkiv Oblast.

️Rutte endorsed by Orban as next NATO Secretary General after Rutte said he supported Budapest opting out of NATO initiatives to support Ukraine, Orban announced on June 18. https://kyivindependent.com/orban-rutte-nato-sec-gen/

⚑️Russia turns to blackmail and big money in effort to recruit German spies https://kyivindependent.com/russia-turns-to-blackmail-and-big-money-in-effort-to-recruit-german-spies-berlin-officials-say/Berlin officials say.
Russia is "working hard" to counter the expulsion of diplomats from Germany by turning to blackmail and the lure of big payouts to recruit spies, Berlin officials said on June 18.

⚑️Media: More than 10,000 Russian soldiers https://kyivindependent.com/media-more-than-10-000-russian-soldiers-prosecuted-for-refusing-to-fight-in-ukraine/ prosecuted for refusing to fight in Ukraine.
Using online data from military courts, Mediazona documented 10,025 such cases since September 2022 when the Kremlin announced a first wave of mobilization.

⚑️ Patriot missiles intended for Switzerland to go to Ukraine, Swiss outlet reports https://kyivindependent.com/patriot-missiles-intended-for-switzerland-to-go-to-ukraine-media/
U.S.-made missiles for the Patriot air defense system manufactured for Switzerland are to be delivered to Ukraine despite contractual obligations, the Swiss outlet Blick reported on June 19, citing undisclosed sources.

⚑️Latvia budgets https://kyivindependent.com/latvia-border-budgets-10-million/ over $10 million to strengthen border with Russia, Belarus

⚑️Russian occupation of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant costs https://kyivindependent.com/zaporizhzhia-losses-over-5-billion/ Ukraine over $5 billion.

⚑️ After a 'long lull,' Ukraine reports intensified Russian attacks near Toretsk https://kyivindependent.com/after-a-lull-ukraine-reports-intensified-russian-attacks-near-toretsk-donetsk-oblast/ in Donetsk Oblast.

⚑️Poll: Only 11% of Russians say sanctions have personally affected https://kyivindependent.com/poll-only-11-of-russians-say-sanctions-have-personally-affected-them-or-their-family/ them or their family.

⚑️Russia has moved almost all ground forces https://kyivindependent.com/russia-has-moved-almost-all-forces-from-finlands-vicinity-to-ukraine-media-report/ from Finland's vicinity to Ukraine, media report.

⚑️Children being recruited by Russia via social media to set fire to military cars parked in cities, Ukraine's Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on June 18. https://kyivindependent.com/children-being-recruited-by-russia/* by*

⚑️ Polish attitudes toward Ukrainian refugees https://kyivindependent.com/polish-attitudes-toward-ukrainian-refugees-deteriorating-survey-says/ deteriorating, survey shows.

⚑️ US arms company to produce munitions https://kyivindependent.com/us-arms-company-to-build-munitions-in-ukraine/ in Ukraine.
Northrop Grumman, an American weapons manufacturer, plans to produce ammunition in Ukraine bankrolled by Ukrainian money, the Breaking Defense magazine reported on June 18, citing a company official.

⚑️Satellite images show Russian oil refinery ablaze https://kyivindependent.com/satellite-images-show-russian-oil-refinery-ablaze-after-ukrainian-drone-strike/ after Ukrainian drone strike.
According to RFE/RL's investigative project Schemes, the depot in the Russian city of Azov is run by Azovproduct which can store up to 30,000 tons of oil products.

⚑️Russian court sentences https://kyivindependent.com/russian-court-sentences-us-soldier-to-nearly-4-years-in-penal-colony-russian-media-reports/ US soldier to nearly 4 years in penal colony, Russian media reports.
A Russian court in Vladivostok has sentenced U.S. Staff Sergeant Gordon Black to three years and nine months in a Russian penal colony on charges of theft and uttering death threats, Russian state-controlled news agency RIA Novosti reported on June 19.

⚑️ POW allegedly beheaded by Russian troops https://kyivindependent.com/pow-allegedly-beheaded-by-russian-troops-identified-ukraine-says/ identified, Ukraine says

⚑️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 1, injure 9 over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

  • JUN 19, 2024

β–  Engagements stay above average, casualties at 7-day average
β–  Artillery, drones & air defence systems losses above average
β–  Increased strikes on both sides but the strike ratio improves

Axios: AI chatbots spread Russian propaganda

According to the study, the chatbots responded with Russian propaganda 32% of the time, citing fake news sites as if they were credible sources.

https://kyivindependent.com/axios-ai-chatbots-spread-russian-propaganda

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 19/06/2024 14:05

Oops

Also, the formatting is playing up badly on the Kyiv Independent info roundup, but arg.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
notimagain · 19/06/2024 14:15

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress

The U.S. is "deliberately delaying" F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots, resulting in a situation where there will be "fewer trained pilots than fighter jets," Ukrainian MP Oleksandra Ustinova said to the Times in an article published on June 17. @notimagain [seems unlikely? is this desperation overtaking her common sense?]

No sense at all, very unlikely, but I think understandable frustration is setting in - I get it, but as I think I’ve mentioned a few times 😬the whole training process is long winded and you can only get a limited number of pilots you can get through and out of the training pipeline in a hurry.

MissConductUS · 19/06/2024 14:17

blueshoes · 19/06/2024 14:03

@MissConductUS great link. Feels exhausting just reading about drone/EW cat-and-mouse game and Red Queen's race.

My son is choosing courses at uni now and he might go for engineering. Was trying to push him towards drone warfare πŸ˜†. Not even sure what sort of engineering that is.

Electrical, aeronautic or computer engineering would all find work in the drone sector.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 19/06/2024 14:20

@MissConductUS What do you make of U.S. Staff Sergeant Gordon Black's course of action and his imprisonment? As a staff sergeant, I imagine he has quite a bit of useful information to be squeezed out of him?

notimagain · 19/06/2024 14:21

MissConductUS · 19/06/2024 14:17

Electrical, aeronautic or computer engineering would all find work in the drone sector.

Yep, I’d steer anyone interested in autonomous flight towards one of those broader degrees, most especially aeronautical.

I’d be cautious of getting into anything too specialised - I’m sure somewhere fashionable in the UK will be trying to push a β€œdrone/UAV” degree any day now but you’d end up very specialised.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 19/06/2024 14:26

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

As its slogan during the presidency of the EU Council in the second half of 2024, Hungary chose the phrase "Make Europe Great Again" by analogy with Trump's slogan

On the agenda of the Hungarian presidency of the EU for the next six months, there is no item on support for Ukraine, according to DW, referencing a statement by Hungary's representative to the EU, Balint Odor.

Current Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, whose term ends on October 1, stated that NATO is close to agreeing on Rutte's candidacy for the post of the alliance's new Secretary General.
According to Bloomberg, Rutte lacks the support of only one NATO member state out of 32 β€” Romania.

The Russians have restored the ferry crossing in occupied Crimea after an attack by ATACMS missiles at the end of May, according to Navy Speaker Dmytro Pletenchuk.
Pletenchuk noted that the Russians are already actively using the ferry crossing to support their grouping of troops in the southern direction.

According to a report by the Swiss think tank Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, there is very little evidence that Western weapons supplied to Ukraine end up on the black market in Europe.
These findings undermine the Russian narrative that a fifth of Western weapons sent to Ukraine are being resold to terrorists on the black market.

The Swiss Parliament has taken a step toward allowing the indirect export of arms to Ukraine, reported Blick.
The committee on security policy of the Swiss National Council voted for amendments to the law that limits the re-export of weapons. The vote took place a few days after the Peace Summit.
If the decision is supported by both houses of parliament, Germany, Denmark, and Spain will be able to transfer weapons containing Swiss components to Ukraine. [ if ]

[Re: Putin and Kim Jong-Un] It is expected that a number of agreements of both economic and military nature will be adopted during the negotiations between the two leaders. Analysts warn that some of the deals, particularly those involving the exchange of weapons and advanced missile and satellite technology, are likely to remain secret.
Kim Jong Un wants to bolster his authority as a significant world leader, while Putin aims to show that Russia still has allies and can travel abroad despite UN sanctions and international arrest warrants.
Experts predict that Kim will promise to provide Russia with more artillery shells in addition to the millions of rounds already sent to the front line in Ukraine. In return, Putin is expected to continue providing technological support to North Korea's nuclear, missile, and space projects.
Lim Eun-jung, an associate professor of international studies at South Korea's Konju National University, adds that Kim made a "strategic choice" to support Russia from the beginning of the Ukraine invasion to reduce dependence on China for political support.
"Last September, Kim visited the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East, and it seems likely that he obtained advanced Russian technology. I expect he will try to achieve the same at this meeting, and he may also seek firm military commitments from Putin. If he gets them in writing, it will put North Korea in a strong position," Lim said.
Putin is also likely to agree to provide the natural resources that North Korea desperately needs, including oil and gas. Meanwhile, Kim is expected to agree to send more workers to Russia to address labor shortages caused by conscription.
Despite the benefits of expanding the axis of authoritarian regimes, even China is beginning to worry about North Korea's closer ties with Russia.

Ukraine will receive 54 RCH 155 self-propelled guns, an increase from the 36 units announced in February this year, according to KDNS.
Nearly six months ago, the company announced the delivery of 36 units of these self-propelled guns to Ukraine as part of military aid from the German government. However, today the manufacturer announced a new figure of 54 units. The details of the delivery, as well as who will finance the additional 18 self-propelled guns, were not disclosed. The only downside is that deliveries are planned to be completed by 2027.

The scientific research institute in Lviv was damaged as a result of an enemy night attack, according to city mayor Andrii Sadovy.

Ukraine presented the new Bulava barrage drone at the Eurosatory 2024 international exhibition.
The kamikaze drone, featuring X-shaped plumage, is equipped with a communication module with an encrypted channel and a CRPA antenna, making it resistant to electronic warfare (EW). It is capable of operating both day and night, with machine vision and automatic target detection.
The drone can be flown by an operator or guided by satellite coordinates, and it is launched from a catapult.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 19/06/2024 14:34

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Ukraine reports over 12,000 civilians killed by Russian forces, with the real number likely much higher due to unreported cases in occupied areas
Law enforcement has documented nearly 130,000 war crimes, including 301 cases of sexual violence.

πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί Hungarian opposition politician PΓ©ter Magyar said https://www.politico.eu/article/european-peoples-party-hungary-weapons-war-in-ukraine-aid-peter-magyar/ he opposes sending weapons to Ukraine, but is ready to help in any other way.

The Russian publication Project has published https://www.proekt.media/guide/vertical-ramzan-kadyrov/ an extensive investigation into Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov
It describes Kadyrov's rise to power, corruption in Chechnya, and a series of high-profile murders. A part of the investigation is devoted to the personal life of the Chechen dictator: he has his harem, whose concubines are often underage girls.
Officially, Ramzan Kadyrov has one wife, 42-year-old Medni Kadyrova. She is called the mother of all 14 children of the Chechen leader, but this is a lie. Journalists write that Kadyrov simply takes children away from those of his concubines whose marriage he cannot officially recognize.
"Kadyrov prefers virginal young girls, schoolgirls, or first-year students. He has an assistant who keeps the contacts of many young Chechen women. Dozens, maybe hundreds," a friend of Kadyrov's told the investigators.
In 2006, 14-year-old Fatima Khazuyeva became one of Kadyrov's concubines, taking second place in a local beauty contest held specifically for the Chechen dictator. At the time of the contest, Fatima was already pregnant.
By the way, another 14-year-old girl, Zamira Dzhabrailova, won first place at this event. She gave birth to a son, Ramzan Kadyrov, a year and a half later.
The photo shows Fatima Khazuyeva and Zamira Dzhabrailova.

At a concert by a Ukrainian singer, a girl moved the audience with a story about the death of her best friend, who was killed by a Russian missile in Mariupol. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/21945

The BRICS Games are now being held in Russia. They were supposed to be an "alternative" to the Olympics
Russian media already report that Russian athletes won hundreds of medals. The secret: in many competitions, there is just one athlete competing.

European Fencing Championships in Basel: Ukrainian fencer Olena Kryvytska refused to shake hands with Russian-born fencer Maya Guchmazova after defeating her 15:9
Guchmazova responded with a profanity-laced outburst.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
Ukraine Invasion: Part 49
MissConductUS · 19/06/2024 14:37

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 19/06/2024 14:20

@MissConductUS What do you make of U.S. Staff Sergeant Gordon Black's course of action and his imprisonment? As a staff sergeant, I imagine he has quite a bit of useful information to be squeezed out of him?

From what's been in the press, he's an infantryman, so not as much as you might think. The Russians already have a good understanding of US infantry doctrine and tactics. It would be different if he worked in signals or intelligence.

blueshoes · 19/06/2024 14:42

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-18-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin published an article in North Korean state-owned newspaper Rodong Sinmun praising Russian–North Korean cooperation on the eve of his visit to North Korea, likely to frame any future support that North Korea will lend to Russia as part of a common struggle against the West.
  • Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil depots in Rostov Oblast and Krasnodar Krai overnight on June 17 to 18, using domestically produced Neptune missiles against a ground target in Russia for the second time.
  • Ukrainian forces have now conducted two strikes with its own Neptune missiles against areas in Russian territory that are within range of US-provided ATACMS but that are also protected by US policy that has established a vast sanctuary in Russian territory.
  • The Russian government is charging Ukrainian servicemen and military officials with crimes in absentia as part of its efforts to enforce Russian federal law outside of its jurisdiction and insinuate that Ukraine should not exist as an independent state.
  • Founder of the Kremlin-linked Rybar Telegram Channel, Mikhail Zvinchuk, gave his second uncharacteristically public interview within a month in which he criticized the state of Russia's war effort in Ukraine and acknowledged that Western sanctions are negatively affecting Russia's industry and economy.
  • Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Vovchansk, Svatove, and Avdiivka
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin continues efforts to groom Russian military personnel for positions in the Russian government through the Kremlin's "Time of Heroes" program.
  • Russian occupation officials continue their efforts to militarize Ukrainian youth in occupied Ukraine.
Igotjelly · 19/06/2024 15:06

People on the election threads claiming Rishi called the election for July because that’s when Russia’s full scale invasion of Europe is planned for Confused Confused I’m not sure what’s more batshit, the thought that Putin’s army, that can’t defeat little old Ukraine, is about to invade the whole of Europe or that Rishi Sunak has the knowledge or competence to know that and plan an election around it.

MissConductUS · 19/06/2024 15:08

Igotjelly · 19/06/2024 15:06

People on the election threads claiming Rishi called the election for July because that’s when Russia’s full scale invasion of Europe is planned for Confused Confused I’m not sure what’s more batshit, the thought that Putin’s army, that can’t defeat little old Ukraine, is about to invade the whole of Europe or that Rishi Sunak has the knowledge or competence to know that and plan an election around it.

Exactly. Whose army are they going to invade Europe with?

WinterMorn · 19/06/2024 16:17

Igotjelly · 19/06/2024 15:06

People on the election threads claiming Rishi called the election for July because that’s when Russia’s full scale invasion of Europe is planned for Confused Confused I’m not sure what’s more batshit, the thought that Putin’s army, that can’t defeat little old Ukraine, is about to invade the whole of Europe or that Rishi Sunak has the knowledge or competence to know that and plan an election around it.

Not this AGAIN. Honestly, I am seriously struggling with some people’s lack of intelligence at the moment.

prettybird · 19/06/2024 16:27

Igotjelly · 19/06/2024 15:06

People on the election threads claiming Rishi called the election for July because that’s when Russia’s full scale invasion of Europe is planned for Confused Confused I’m not sure what’s more batshit, the thought that Putin’s army, that can’t defeat little old Ukraine, is about to invade the whole of Europe or that Rishi Sunak has the knowledge or competence to know that and plan an election around it.

To be fair on the long running election thread (at least, the one I contribute to Wink) one person suggested a full scale July invasion, without any additional information or supporting evidence Confused and was quite firmly rebutted by everyone else.

Igotjelly · 19/06/2024 16:53

prettybird · 19/06/2024 16:27

To be fair on the long running election thread (at least, the one I contribute to Wink) one person suggested a full scale July invasion, without any additional information or supporting evidence Confused and was quite firmly rebutted by everyone else.

But still, they walk among us.

prettybird · 19/06/2024 17:15

To be fair again Wink, we get doomsayers on these threads too: the important thing is that they were immediately shut down.

Not to say that the posters on that thread are complacent about Putin and his aspirations - but they are fully aware that it's a serious war of attrition and we (the countries in the West) need to up our game. They were more concerned that the Conservatives are leaving a booby trap for Labour - but I think the Conservatives are leaving booby traps everywhere Shock

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 20/06/2024 10:52

I keep thinking of the poor girls grabbed by Kadyrov. Christ, what a barbaric shit.

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