Ukraine Invasion: Part 49

[MagicFox]

Welcome to our 49th thread with the usual thanks to all regular contributors and lurkers 🇺🇦

**
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I commented on this a bit upthread. I think that they’ve taken such an ass kicking from ATACMS in Crimea that they’re hoping to protect the bridge from the version with the unitary warhead, which is better suited to attacking fixed targets. Ukraine has been using the cluster munitions version to attack Russian air defense systems, which are more spread out.

Sorry, I was being a bit tongue in cheek, saying that they would give Ukraine something to aim for.

I see. I think my awful seasonal allergies are making me a bit fuzzy headed.

It is rather brave of the Russians to risk them. If they get taken out by ATACMS they’ll never sell any in the export market. If I was a Russian missile engineer I would be quite concerned for my safety.

I do hope high windows start to beckon, then.

Shades of grim: Scenarios for Ukraine and the Global Order (Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy)

csds.vub.be/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/122024-IDP-Simon-and-Boswinkel-Ukraine-Futures.pdf

The implication of Zelenskyy's phrasing is extra fighters, though ofc no firm detail.

That’s how I understand it.

Fighter squadrons sizes vary, personally I know on one that had 12 aircraft, another with about 20 plus ( variation there was down to that squadron’s exact role) - in most air-forces that’s your basic unit, probably the smallest size of unit that has enough critical mass to operate effectively over an extended period, usually comes with it’s own set of engineers and infrastructure

Stick two or three together and you get a wing.

Back in the Cold War days the UK for example had two squadrons of one sort of air defence fighter, six of another, umpteen ground attack squadrons,..

So as I see it all Z is saying is we are getting more aircraft, types may or may not vary.

Ukraine only has 20 pilots who are in advanced training to fly them, which doesn't sound many once a few pilots have been lost due to enemy action / accidents to me.

There simply are not the resources in any Air Force to train and then release big numbers of pilots for one aircraft type to the front line in one go.

Once upon a time the final course of fast jet training in the UK designed to produce a fighter pilot might only produce 5 or 6 pilots every three months, plus/minus. States side had more capacity but even so 20 is a big number….and of course the various nations training systems have their own pilots to train.

I suspect training for the Ukrainians will have been phased and arranged so that 20 is the size first batch can be declared ready for released for operational service as the first squadron are delivered.

Thank you!

There are rumours that Russia has pegged the rouble to the yuan rather than the dollar.

There are rumours that Russia has pegged the rouble to the yuan rather than the dollar.

Russia continues to slide into dependence on China, enlarging their sphere of influence.

I wonder what India and Pakistan make of that?

yes, I wonder what Putin is thinking? (or not). The US has its faults but being dependent on China is downright alarming.

There are rumours that Putin may soon visit North Korea, he sure does get around for a man with an international arrest warrant! 😡I wonder what dodgy weapons deals they'll be doing this time.

Putin making wild and threatening statements again, saying we are “close to the point of no return” and then minutes later saying he would be willing to work with European countries and NATO.

@Zlatti_71

Putin: Ukrainian troops must be completely withdrawn from new regions - from their entire territory, their administrative borders at the time of their entry into the Russian Federation

As soon as they announce this in Kyiv and make a promise not to join NATO, Moscow will give the order for a ceasefire and the start of negotiations.

And if you believe that, I've a squadron of pink porcines to sell you.

Thank you for the ‘Shades of Grim’ paper MagicFox, it’s a good read.

I think the fact that Russia has lost momentum on the battlefield, Ukraine is regularly striking targets inside Russia, Russian banks are in turmoil, and people can't access their funds has rather panicked Putin.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ China lobbying for its alternative peace plan https://kyivindependent.com/china-lobbying-for-its-alternative-peace-plan-ahead-of-ukraines-peace-summit-reuters-reports/ ahead of Ukraine's summit, Reuters reports. [and persuading other countries not to attend the Swiss one]

⚡️Military aid for Ukraine will allow https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-military-aid-for-ukraine-will-allow-for-operational-troop-rotations/ for troop rotations, Zelensky says.

⚡️ Pentagon has 'no announcements' on delivering additional Patriot https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-says-no-announcements-on-patriot/ to Ukraine.

⚡️US-Ukraine security agreement a bridge to NATO https://kyivindependent.com/draft-us-ukraine-sign-bilateral-security-agreement/ membership, Zelensky says.
The agreement signed on June 13 "clearly states that America supports Ukraine's efforts to win this war," President Volodymyr Zelensky said, describing the deal as a "bridge" to Ukraine's future NATO membership.

⚡️North Korea could send up to 5 million https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-could-send-about-5-million-shells-to-russia-seoul-says https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-could-send-about-5-million-shells-to-russia-seoul-says/ artillery shells to Russia, Seoul says.
Seoul spotted at least 10,000 containers being shipped from North Korea to Russia, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said. Pyongyang also sent dozens of ballistic missiles that Moscow troops launch against Ukraine, he added.

⚡️ Recent string of Crimea strikes can help 'dismantle' Russian air defenses https://kyivindependent.com/string-of-successful-crimea-strikes-can-dismantle-russian-air-defenses-before-arrival-of-f-16s-expert-says/ before F-16s arrive, said Federico Borsari, a Leonardo Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), in a comment for the Kyiv Independent on June 12.

Russia suffered "astronomical" losses while attempting to advance in Kharkiv Oblast, European Pravda reported on June 13, citing a NATO official who spoke on condition of anonymity during a NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels. https://kyivindependent.com/media-russia-suffered-astronomical-losses-on-kharkiv-front/

⚡️ US, UK, Canada warn https://kyivindependent.com/us-uk-canada-warn-russian-interference/ of Russian interference in Moldova's election.

⚡️ US signs long-awaited bilateral security agreement https://kyivindependent.com/draft-us-ukraine-sign-bilateral-security-agreement/ with Ukraine.

⚡️Japan, Ukraine sign https://kyivindependent.com/japan-ukraine-sign-bilateral-security-agreement/ bilateral security agreement.

⚡️Ukraine preparing 10 more bilateral security agreements https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-preparing-10-more-bilateral-security-agreements-zelensky-says/ Zelensky says.
Over 30 countries have joined the Group of Seven (G7) Joint Declaration of Support for Ukraine so far. The U.S. and Japan joined 15 other countries on June 13, including the U.K., Germany, and France, that have signed similar bilateral treaties to help Kyiv repel Russia's aggression.

⚡️ Ukraine's wheat exports to drop to 10-year low https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-wheat-exports-to-drop-to-10-year-low-us-agriculture-department-says/ US Agriculture Department says.
Ukraine's wheat exports in the marketing year 2024-2025 are expected to amount to 13 million metric tons, the lowest figure in the past decade, the U.S. Agriculture Department said in its June report.
The authors linked this development to a drop in production and to Russia's disruption of Black Sea shipping lanes, which have traditionally been Ukraine's key export routes.

⚡️ Canada unveils new aid package https://kyivindependent.com/canada-new-aid-package/ for Ukraine, including 2,300 decommissioned CRV7 rocket motors, 29 Nanuk remote weapons systems, and over 130,000 small arms rounds in the latest aid package, Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair said on June 13.

Ukraine and the Group of Seven (G7) nations must create a mechanism for confiscating $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 13 during a G7 summit in Italy. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-at-g7-summit-we-need-mechanism-to-confiscate-300-billion-of-russias-assets/

⚡️ Media: Slovenia secretly provided Ukraine with military supplies https://kyivindependent.com/media-slovenia-had-secretly-provided-ukraine-with-military-equipment-during-us-aid-delay/ during US aid delay.
While Kyiv was waiting for the approval of the U.S. aid bill, Slovenia sent 20 armored fighting vehicles armed with a 12.7 mm caliber weapon, six armored fighting vehicles armed with a 3x20 mm caliber weapon, three infantry fighting vehicles, and a shipment of drones to Ukraine, according to the outlet.

⚡️Several Kyrgyz banks https://kyivindependent.com/some-banks-in-kyrgyzstan-partially-suspended-operations-with-russia-media-says/ partially suspended operations with Russia, media report.
Mbank, Kompanion Bank, RKS Bank, Kyrgyz-Swiss Bank (KSB), Kyrgyzcommerzbank, and Keremet Bank have reportedly imposed various restrictions on transfers using Russian payment systems.

⚡️Ukraine's 68th Jaeger Brigade says https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-68th-jaeger-brigade-destroys-entire-russian-tank-company/ it 'destroyed entire Russian tank company.' According to a post on Facebook, eight Kremlin tanks and eight infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) were destroyed.

⚡️Former Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant employee receives 10-year sentence https://kyivindependent.com/former-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-employee-receives-10-year-sentence-for-collaborating-with-russia/ for collaborating with Russia.

⚡️Jailed US reporter Gershkovich to be tried https://kyivindependent.com/jailed-us-reporter-gershkovich-to-be-tried-for-espionage-in-russia/ for espionage in Russia.

⚡️Drones strike https://kyivindependent.com/russian-official-reports-attack-on-oil-refinery-in-voronezh-oblast/ oil refinery in Voronezh Oblast, Russian official says.

⚡️Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 1, injure 20 over past day.

⚡️Ukraine retrieves bodies of 254 fallen soldiers. Over 2,400 fallen soldiers have been repatriated to Ukraine in the last two years. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-retrieves-bodies-of-254-fallen-soldiers/

Personnel losses back up over 1000. The number of artillery systems reported and vehicles has also been huge over the last weeks.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• JUN 14, 2024

■ 2nd highest casualties of the last 7 days, engagements stay above average ■ Equipment losses above average, include 16 special equipment losses ■ More strikes on both sides, strike ratio improves somewhat

This was inevitable ever since the tide started to turn back against them on the battlefield and with the new US-Ukraine agreement being announced. I honestly wish the media would give less airtime to his rantings. Every time he causes fear by utilising the idea of nuclear weapons (even like here when he doesn't even name them) he wins a small victory.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The US will delay the supply of air defense to foreign buyers until Ukraine's needs are met, US President Joe Biden said at a joint press conference with President Zelenskyy.

Security measures for the Summit on Peace for Ukraine are robust, with 4,000 personnel dedicated to protecting the event. There will be a strong focus on cybersecurity and critical infrastructure protection throughout the Summit.

NATO plans to enhance its role in coordinating the supply of weapons to Ukraine, according to Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.
"Sometimes, NATO notes that commitments from some countries are delayed. NATO wants to address these management issues to communicate more effectively and have a legal mandate to intervene. This would allow NATO to inquire on behalf of its members about the status of military, technical, and financial assistance," Umerov explained.
If there are delays in providing assistance to Ukraine, NATO will use its capabilities to address the issues.

Russian war against Ukraine accelerates global climate catastrophe, — The Guardian.
According to a report by a group of climate experts, over 175 million tons of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane, and sulfur hexafluoride, were released into the atmosphere two years after the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This exceeds the annual figures of 175 countries.
About a third of all emissions are fuel used by combat vehicles. Another third is for the restoration of destroyed infrastructure, which requires a lot of concrete and steel. The rest of the emissions occur due to fires, changes in aircraft routes, strikes on energy facilities and the movement of people.

Barges and boom barriers have been installed in certain areas along the Crimean Bridge to protect it from surface drone attacks https://t.me/United24media/22687

The Ukrainian company A3tech conducted field tests of the DOK-ING MV-10 heavy demining machine, which was assembled and partially localized in Ukraine, according to the Government portal.
Once certified, the company will be able to start mass production and provide better service. A3tech has a preliminary order for eight machines and has the capacity to produce up to 60 machines per year.

Coca-Cola has re-registered its trademarks in Russia to preserve intellectual rights for the Coca-Cola, Fanta, and Sprite brands.

The Ukrainian national football team will be taken under special protection during the European Championship in Germany

Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán said that 31 out of 32 NATO member countries want to defeat the Russians, "but this is a mistake."
He said that Ukraine's victory was not necessary, but despite this, NATO was still "facilitating war, while Hungary is on the side of peace." [can't someone puncture that fat toad and pour the slime down the sewer?]

Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that Ukrainian troops must withdraw from Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions within their administrative borders. He added that the Russian Federation is ready to guarantee the safe withdrawal of Ukrainian units and formations from these areas.
Putin outlined the conditions for negotiations with Ukraine:
🤦‍♂️Ukrainian troops must completely withdraw from the DPR, LPR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
🤦‍♂️Once the withdrawal begins and Kyiv announces its plans to abandon NATO membership, Moscow will order an immediate ceasefire and start negotiations.
Russia guarantees the unhindered and safe withdrawal of Ukrainian forces. [deary me, wherever have we heard that before?]

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇺🇸 Since the US-Ukraine security agreement will not be ratified by Congress, any next US president will be able to withdraw from it if he or she wishes - WP.
If Trump wins the election, the future of the agreement remains unclear.

🇩🇪 The German government has unveiled https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992** a new military aid package for Ukraine. It will include, among other things, HIMARS and IRIS-T missile systems and Leopard tanks, the government's website says

Last night, drones attacked Russian territory en masse. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down 87 UAVs over Russia and the temporarily occupied Crimea
Most of them, 70 UAVs, came to Rostov Oblast. Locals heard explosions near the Morozovsk airfield. Several settlements were left without electricity. In Voronezh Oblast, several fuel tanks at an oil depot were damaged.

The US President said that there is currently support from 5 countries to provide Ukraine with Patriot systems.

🇺🇦🇮🇳 Volodymyr Zelensky met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
On the sidelines of the G7 summit, they discussed expanding trade, in particular through the Black Sea export corridor, as well as bilateral relations. A separate topic was preparations for the Global Peace Summit on Ukraine to be held in Switzerland. The Indian delegation will attend the summit. Modi said that his country "will be the voice of the Global South."

In Russia An-26 airplane crashed near the runway in Yamal @notimagain

Russian protesters in Moscow talk about nuclear bombing of Washington and the United States https://t.me/liveukraine_media/21804

60% of Ukrainians believe that Russia’s main goal in war is genocide and destruction of nation
The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology released https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=1415&page=1&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR2eNnUAsfAPzmeCSM-QPx0R1r3kuNMWVQpS0JGH6Cekz0Ui6tTfFtE2srQ_aem_AUugpC2u7s0_ObKST4X7Qwrl_jbtOQir5_BLJkmHv9tpjiqE6PxIFGkGZLjPqj6hWKax_DymSWjWQtWTRvfeKACo a poll showing that 60% of Ukrainians believe that Russia’s goal in the war in Ukraine is genocide and the destruction of the Ukrainian nation.
Since the beginning of the full-scale war, Russians have been shelling Ukrainian towns and villages every day with various types of weapons. Since February 2022, Russia has killed more than 10,582 Ukrainian civilians.
According to the polls, 6% of Ukrainians believe that Russia wants to occupy all the territories, although it wants to leave [Ukraine] some cultural autonomy within Russia.
According to 12% of Ukrainians, Russia seeks to change the government and create a puppet state that will obey Russia.
Only 7% of Ukrainians believe that the aggressor seeks to retain the already occupied territories and does not claim all or most of Ukraine’s territories
The institute interviewed 1,067 respondents aged 18 and older living in all regions of the government-controlled territory of Ukraine.

That video clip….what a bunch of headbangers!

Proper lemmings aren't they?

A nuclear attack on the US would certainly solve all of Russia's problems.

I expect that for many, it would be extremely quick and really quite painless.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-13-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukraine signed bilateral ten-year security agreements with the US and Japan on June 13 as other partner states reaffirmed their long-term support for Ukraine within the Group of 7 (G7) and Ramstein formats.
• The US finally sanctioned the Moscow Exchange, other significant Russian financial institutions, and Russian defense manufacturers 839 days into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
• The Russian government appears confident that these new sanctions will minimally impact the Russian financial system, and the delay in US and other Western countries sanctioning these entities has given the Russian financial system time to prepare and mitigate such sanctions.
• US President Joe Biden reiterated his opposition to allowing Ukrainian forces to strike military targets in Russia’s operational or deep rear areas in Russian territory with US-provided weapons.
• Sustained Ukrainian strikes against Russian military targets in occupied Crimea appear to be forcing the Russian military to commit additional air defense assets to Crimea in order to defend existing bases and logistics infrastructure, and further Ukrainian strikes against such air defense assets may render the peninsula untenable as a staging ground for the Russian military.
• The People's Republic of China (PRC) is reportedly using diplomatic channels to convince other countries to not support the upcoming June 15-16 Global Peace Summit in Switzerland.
• The US, United Kingdom (UK), and Canada released a joint statement on July 13 acknowledging and condemning Russian subversive activity and electoral interference efforts in Moldova, which is consistent with ISW's long-standing assessment of the Kremlin's ongoing hybrid campaign to destabilize Moldovan democracy.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Kharkiv City and Russian forces marginally advanced near Siversk and Avdiivka.
• Russian federal subjects (regions) continue to increase monetary incentives to recruit military personnel.

Putin can go fuck himself.