Thread 34 Sunak - the Circus is back in Westminster

[DuncinToffee]

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https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4947437-thread-33-sunak-sense-and-sunakability?page=40&reply=131395455

Really interesting set of graphs & commentary from John Burn-Murdoch. Explains a lot.

🧵

"NEW: The most important charts for understanding public opinion on immigration in the UK today

1. In the past, immigration worries rose in lockstep for all voters. But this year only hardline Conservatives seem to be concerned, suggesting it’s not actual numbers driving concern"

x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1735587037346922597?s=46&t=Uw4lJNwxFZFnX0Xs3doHYg

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/15/court-no-fault-evictions-rishi-sunak-christmas-children-homeless-tenants

🚨 || General Election Nowcast (15/12):

LAB: 425 (+229) - 43.3%
CON: 133 (-243) - 25.5%
LDM: 48 (+40) - 11.3%
SNP: 20 (-28) - 3.2%
PLC: 4 (+2) - 0.7%
GRN: 1 (=) - 6.4%
RFM: 0 (=) - 8.9%
Oth: 0 (=) - 0.8%

LAB Maj. of 200.

Changes w/ GE2019 notionals.
electionmaps.uk/nowcast

x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1735708707487465616?s=46&t=Uw4lJNwxFZFnX0Xs3doHYg

V gd article - if terrifying.

@Notonthestairs don't count your chickens yet. By the time of the election with lower inflation, perhaps lower energy prices, and just a thought of why bother to vote as it is a forgone conclusion, those and other factors will mean no more than 100 Tory losses I reckon.

I wasn't counting anyone's chickens & I'm well aware that the poll shows voting intention as at today's date.

The Tory party just need to make a law declaring themselves the winners of the election and I bet papers like the Daily Express wouldn't have a problem with that.

Poor piers Morgan. He doesn’t seem to be very happy with the judge’s ruling into phone hacking.

Anyone listen to Angela Rayner on the "Leading" podcast? I think she is inspirational. Enjoyed it very much

I thought she was fantastic and I got quite tearful at one point. When you think of so much potential that exists and doesn’t stand a chance.

Thank you for the heads up for that. I like her, she's great. So many people are awful about her, very classist, even on this board in the past.

I like her too. She reminds me of Barbara Castle who I greatly admired.

Can anyone point me to that website that predicts what your constituency results would be on current voting intention? Can't sleep and have tried googling.

The scrapping of the Minister for the disabled really is a new low considering how much money is wasted within Westminster this is hardly a saving. The tories really have a hard on for the less fortunate in society.

There may be others, I like.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

Thanks @jgw1 that's the one. Think I was too tired to use Google properly. Disappointingly it still reckons we will keep our bloody useless Tory MP who can't actually find her way around our constituency.

@Zonder on the other hand it is the one site that has got 8 out of the last 9 general elections right, including the size of predicted majorities, which should cheer up @LlynTegid .

After all, it's what the people want.

Did anyone watch The Last Leg?

Ds I just caught up and this years Dick of the year.

Crying 😂😂😂😂

I watched it, this will go viral

A lot of anger about not appointing a minister for the disabled people as well

Yes and rightly so.

DS has been brilliant watching it. As a disabled person who lives in Fareham about a mile from where that was filmed he's gutted he wasn't there 😂

According to the Times, the Tories are going to attack Starmer for being a lefty lawyer in their election campaign

Well, given wider public opinion that's going to go well for them.

They really can't see that the majority of people aren't as hate filled as they are.

As opposed to the right wing lawyer Braverman.

It's just a stupid crazy slogan that I luckily think the British public aren't stupid enough to buy 🤞

Fwiw out local FB page is hilarious re last nights DOTY award 😂

Just watched it. That is amazing.

What the hell was she or her people thinking?