U.K. birthrate hits 20 year low

[SunshineHello]

“Since 2011, the number of babies born has been on an almost constant downward trend, falling each year from 2011 to 2020 before a small rise in 2021 as pandemic restrictions were eased. The latest figures show another “considerable” decline last year, from 624,828 births to 605,479.”

This take the TFR to the lowest rate on record for the U.K. - 1.5

I wonder how much the birth rate will drop before it levels out.

The cost of housing and childcare are a major factor among my peers.

I currently have one in nursery and if I had two it would be ~ £4,000 pcm. That’s a £75,000 salary. To make a decision to do that is… complex.

The expectations of work are just insane aren’t they? I remember saying to my boss (who had contacted me on mat leave to ‘invite’ ie pressure me to a four day conference while my DH was also away - no family, no childcare as I was STILL ON MAT LEAVE) ‘but what is it you think I should DO with the baby?!’

I honestly think if I’d said ‘shall I shut it in a cupboard for the four days?’ they’d have been delighted.

It's tough - I had my first child almost 17 years ago, maternity care was abysmal and the discrimination I experienced coming back to work was horrendous. I put up with it for a few years and left in 2019 when my youngest was 3. I think support given to parents now is a million times better than it was in 2005 even if there are still huge issues. We had no 15/30 hours, no option to share maternity leave, and actually lots of my co-workers used to argue how maternity leave was unfair! The main issue seems to be the state of the world today - there are huge issues facing us all globally. I don't know what the answer is but there are just too many people in the world who are using too many resources. It really scares me how we are not really preparing for how the world is going to change. We need to be food-sufficient. When there are food shortages (like the rice shortage currently in India) countries will not be able to import to the UK. We also need to be able to manage our water better which for a country with so much rain is terrible. If I was starting a family now, i am not sure how I would feel but I can completely understand why people are choosing to have fewer children in such a time of uncertainty.

We are living longer and having less kids this is an issue in terms of future workforce, services, pensions etc. in terms of the worlds resources I think it’s a positive thing that we are having less kids but whereas I think everyone should have say 2 with a third at a push having 2 or 3 is not possible with the cost of childcare and housing in cities like London.
Childcare needs to be lower but who would then pay for that? Rents need to be controlled but then some people have issues with that? We need better maternity pay but again issues with payments for that…… I think if you look at issues surrounding the ageing population in places like Japan and their issues with people not getting married till very late and not having children or just having the one child we will have quite a lot of issues in years to come.

@christmasbarbie You had your two children either side of the last major UK recession and just a couple of years after one of the UK's deadliest ever terror attacks. And yes huge climate and environmental concerns were also being spoken about 12 years ago. I mean for goodness sake, you had your kids last decade, not 50 years ago. Of course it's convenient now to say that you wouldn't have had your children right now but let's be serious now, life wasn't all rainbows and butterflies then either and you still chose to bring your children into the world. If your biological clock was ticking now I highly doubt you'd feel any differently to how you did then.

Completely agree @YaWeeFurryBastard.

And yet every other thread on MN is Should I have a third baby?

I think that's just because willingly jettisoning yourself out of the normal family structure seems to generate the kind of rumination that isn't as compulsive if you are are considering one or two.

I know more people than ever now who have opted to remain child free.

Childcare costs are the responsibility of both parents though? So you need to consider what the household income would be, in which case it’s less than £75k because there’s two tax free allowances and lower tax rates when it’s two parents earning.

Or do you mean you’re a single parent with no maintenance support and this is what it would personally equate to salary-wise for you?

True. I tried for DD for about 5 years and due to endometriosis never got pregnant again. The endo was removed eventually but too late

This

Encouraging women to have unwanted children seems like a particularly brutal way to solve the problem.

This is a trend all over Europe, more one child families or not having any at all. Sucessive UK governments have neglected the family for decades now.

Hungary is reversing the trend with a raft of policies making it easier to have kids. I admit Hungary is not a utopia, but the state has done much more to reverse the birthrate than many European countries.

https://ifstudies.org/blog/is-hungary-experiencing-a-policy-induced-baby-boom

I made a conscious decision not to have kids due to population concerns and the whole resource issue - there are just too many people on the planet and there are finite resources to support them all.

When people say "but people need to have children in order to support you when you're older" I see the point, but at the same time I should be able to pay for my own care if/when I hit that stage. And there may be a few decades when there aren't enough young people to support the older ones, but then the older ones will die off and there will be fewer people growing older so they in turn will need fewer people to look after them. If you see what I mean.

So, I don't see a falling birth rate as a bad thing if you look at it long-term - it strikes me as a good thing. Fewer people need fewer resources.

Don't be silly

When people say "but people need to have children in order to support you when you're older" I see the point, but at the same time I should be able to pay for my own care if/when I hit that stage.

Agree. I have children but I wouldn't want to have to rely or them or for them to feel under obligation to support and look after me in some way in old age.

AI is going to make so many jobs redundant I don’t really want rising birth rate

To an extent no surprise, as the grandchildren of the post war baby boom will not be necessarily having more now.

@appleyshampoo indeed. I was thinking that. I have two female only Whatsapp groups of those groups (all women in their early to mid forties from a variety of backgrounds) well under half have children:

Group 1

3 women have no children

One has 3 children

One (me) has one step child

Group 2

2 women have one child

1 has 4 children

4 women have no children

1 has a step child (me again!)

I would say those who have no children it is probably a combination of choice (activiely did not want children) and circumstance (no partner or met one too late).

Good. There are fire too many folk already for the size of the country.

I never really get why people say this.

If it costs more than one person earns, to pay for childcare, that person isn’t going to be working. Losing money each month to go to work is not something many families will opt for.

But, if you insist, a couple would need to earn £33k EACH to break even on just childcare. That leaves them with £0 for housing, bills, transport, food…. Nothing. Just childcare.

I’m not sure why the calculation is more valuable, but there it is.

I think its a double issue of 1) women want and need to work 2) having children is framed as a "choice" women make and therefore they don't need financial support or legal protection.

Childcare is ruinous. Child benefit is gone for many working families. Employers expect women to work like men but men aren't stepping up to do their share of childcare.

The pressure is on women to establish a financially stable career to be able to afford they children they are choosing to have and that means they delay until they are older, so more likely to have problems conceiving.

Add on to that, it feels like humanity is on the brink of some kind of catastrophe. I'm not surprised the birth rate is falling.

I also think its a good thing because the planet is being destroyed by so many humans

It's not just about your children looking after you when you are older, it's the upheaval involved in an inverted population pyramid.

Obviously the caring responsibility of the nation is increased on each nation generally, how do we manage healthcare, what kind of political policies will be made to manage the situation, how will nations make their country attractive for the high immigration it will need to plugs the gaps, what will happen to countries where net migration makes a bad situation worse? Stuff like that. The kind of stuff that causes social unrest and political tensions and leads to bad decisions.