U.K. birthrate hits 20 year low

[SunshineHello]

“Since 2011, the number of babies born has been on an almost constant downward trend, falling each year from 2011 to 2020 before a small rise in 2021 as pandemic restrictions were eased. The latest figures show another “considerable” decline last year, from 624,828 births to 605,479.”

This take the TFR to the lowest rate on record for the U.K. - 1.5

I wonder how much the birth rate will drop before it levels out.

The cost of housing and childcare are a major factor among my peers.

I currently have one in nursery and if I had two it would be ~ £4,000 pcm. That’s a £75,000 salary. To make a decision to do that is… complex.

@FourTeaFallOut no idea why no one changed to boobs!

Lol you’re having a laugh right? 2025 everyone was terrified of terror attacks at maternity hospitals (I remember one even being evacuated) and 2028 was the financial crisis.

Overpopulation is at least in part to people living longer. One end of the spectrum (birth) can be controlled whether that's by government initiatives (limiting benefits after 2 children, CB means tested) or individuals choosing not to have children, or having fewer children due to CoL and climate change (and other reasons). The opposite end of the spectrum is just about impossible to control in a ethical way. You couldn't, for example stop all medical treatment for those over 80, or withdraw pensions payments at a certain point.

But there does need to be a balance of working age people to support (financially and practically) not only the oldest people but also other vulnerable adults who are either ill or unable to work.

I was responding to idebtiy's post which has since been deleted. (That wasn't me who reported - I disagreed but it wasn't offensive)

Thank god it's dropping.

dropping but with increasing older people is an issue from a economic perspective

"In mid-2020 there were 1.7 million people aged 85 years and over, making up 2.5% of the UK population. By mid-2045, this is projected to have nearly doubled to 3.1 million, representing 4.3% of the total UK population. There are projected to be many more people at older ages by 2045, in part because of the baby boomers from the 1960s now being aged around 80 years as well as general increases in life expectancy"

"By mid-2030, the number of children (those aged from 0 to 15 years) is projected to decrease by 1.1 million (8.8%).

Conversely, the number of people of pensionable age is projected to increase by 1.3 million (11.3%). This takes into account the planned increases in State Pension age to 67 years for both sexes. The number of working age people is projected to increase by 1.9 million (4.5%) over the same period.
By mid-2045, the number of working age people and children is projected to remain around the mid-2030 levels. During the same period, the number of people of pensionable age will grow to 15.2 million, an increase of 28% on the level in 2020."

Got the lottery numbers?

@FourTeaFallOut I didn't see what that post said & I didn't realise you were responding to someone.

It's alright, no big deal.

Well, it’s a more valuable calculation because it reflects reality. In the vast majority of families both parents work - I think it’s something like 75% of mothers and 90% of fathers work outside the home.

Two people earning £33k each is far more achievable and likely than one person earning £75k, given the average salary in the UK is around 30-32k. Also, £4k on nursery fees is very steep and nowhere near what most people with 2 children spend on nursery - I don’t have stats on the average, but suspect it’s around the £2.5-3k mark.

You picked a deliberately extreme example with the £4k fees and £75k salary and presented an unnecessarily gloomy picture. I’m not saying it’s all roses, but it’s not as bad as you’re making out.

There's already an issue in London primaries with some boroughs seeing falling rolls. The problem is funding model is based on headcounts.

"London’s birth rate dropped 17 per cent between 2012 and 2021, equivalent to 23,225 fewer children. Almost 15 per cent of school places in the city are now unfilled. "

You picked a deliberately extreme example with the £4k fees and £75k salary and presented an unnecessarily gloomy picture. I’m not saying it’s all roses, but it’s not as bad as you’re making out.

childcare costs are really bad & they are preventing some women from staying the job market.

@divv why is it doubtful?

It's a thing...

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cdp-2023-0115/

I don’t think so. I had mine too young to think about what I was bringing them into and times were different. 20 years later I have life experience and everything has changed.

I wouldn’t trust the nhs to look after me and my babies properly, I think women are in a shit position having to stretch themselves to be two people instead of one, I think schools are toxic places to be, I think the internet has shortened the innocence that childhood used to come with.

“Having a baby” is wonderful, as is being a mother, raising children into adults.. but creating a person to become another cog in a really messed up machine that’s going to die out at some point is what it actually is and people are more aware of that than ever.

I think also when people haven’t experienced the joys and connections of children it’s going to be really hard to see a selling point. Some relatives in their 30’s only see it as sacrifices, costs, stress, noise and their freedom taken away.

I agree with you @OriginalUsername2 and feel mostly the same.

People I know are having less purely because of the cost. I always wanted 4, I stopped at 2 because I couldn’t afford to comfortably fund more than 2. I’m early 40’s and most of my parents generation managed to live comfortably on one income. Very few people are now in that situation so the childcare costs become ridiculous.

My 3 were born in the late 80s and early 90s, stepchildren are 90s early 2000s, i have Granchildren and i hope to god my Grandchildren stay childless.

I'm pretty sure india and China with the biggest populations in the world have more of an issue on the environment than the uk

@divv

from an historical perspective? And at an individual level?

Not too mention the fact a lot of their factories are producing stuff for the west!

I have 3, born since 2016 so I guess I am an outlier now. I’ve had pretty straightforward pregnancies and births so haven’t had too much to do with the maternity system but by far my best experience was my home birth outside of the hospital system.

The overwhelming cost that is incurred is childcare. I estimate our first and second have cost around £40,000 EACH between 1 year and starting school… that’s been 4 days a week. Third DC is still in the system and weve got another £24,000 to go. Then there’s holiday clubs… This isn’t ok!!

We both work and bring home around £5k per month but at the end of the month there is nothing left at the moment, which is ridiculous (and terrifying).

No one wants to give birth in U.K. hospitals with their appalling maternity care?

We earn up to 200k between us in a year depending on bonuses, minimum 150k, and I’m still on the line about kids for purely financial reasons. I think we will go for one but private school for two would be tight.