U.K. birthrate hits 20 year low

[SunshineHello]

“Since 2011, the number of babies born has been on an almost constant downward trend, falling each year from 2011 to 2020 before a small rise in 2021 as pandemic restrictions were eased. The latest figures show another “considerable” decline last year, from 624,828 births to 605,479.”

This take the TFR to the lowest rate on record for the U.K. - 1.5

I wonder how much the birth rate will drop before it levels out.

The cost of housing and childcare are a major factor among my peers.

I currently have one in nursery and if I had two it would be ~ £4,000 pcm. That’s a £75,000 salary. To make a decision to do that is… complex.

I wouldn’t have children now. Everything by feels very bleak, housing costs, childcare costs (and length of time theyd have to be in that), but mostly. The environmental crisis. What on Earth are we walking in to?

Jesus Christ.

Rule 1 of time travel. Don't go back wards. You could mess up something that needs to happen in the future for you to be here in the past, creating a paradox

Rule 2 of time travel. Don't go onto SM and tell people about things that aren't happening yet.

YOU of all people know there are time travelers in 2024 trying to stop the thing that caused the panic in 2025 and if we can sort out you-kmow-who in 2026 then 2028 will be sunshine and roses

I'm a solo mum by choice and I would love to have a 2nd child. I probably would have done if covid/ lockdown hadn't happened. Since then I've struggled financially and it's getting worse and worse for me. I've just paid for my dc's first school uniform. Swimming lessons I feel are an essential life skill but I cannot afford to pay for my dc to do these. He does no other activities so I'm just paying for childcare and normal household things on a salary of £47000. I similar cannot afford for us to do anything other than trips to the park. I've saved up £50 to take him on a trip next week for one day.

Why is it virtue-signalling? I have two, love them dearly but if I had a time machine, I wouldn't have had kids at all.

Nobody's stopping you. Have 2, have 10... whatever you like.

sourcherriesarebest, my heart was in my mouth reading your post. I'm really sorry for what you went through.

Not even that long ago, posts on here where the kids are still young enough to be at home but of course they're better people than those having babies now 🙄

Not at all surprised.

Here’s the perspective of an under 25

I know you can’t plan for every future eventuality but I cannot see how we will comfortably afford more than one child, despite being average earners. Nursery fees are astronomical, we live in a cheaper part of the country and still it would easily be 1100 a month for a full time place at the cheapest setting you could find. We can’t do that x2. Even if you wait for one to start school, you’ve still got wraparound care to afford and it means finding that extra thousand pounds a month for nursery and taking it out of the family pot that theoretically funds holidays, Christmas, everything else. It’s 36-48k in total for your child’s early education depending on the time of year you have your child. The way I see it, that could be put in a pot for one child to benefit them in the future (housing, cars, weddings, education).

It’s kinda sad because DH and I have one nephew and they and any subsequent siblings they have would be the only relative roughly around our DCs age, if we only had one.

We probably won’t need full time paid childcare but that is just one example of cost. Combine that with rising interest rates (still not on the property ladder, it’s a pipe dream at this point) and the cost of living ever climbing… the stats you share OP are just one side effect of a greater societal issue.

Gen Z have it harder.

You couldn't be more ignorant we need more children in the Western world not less. We are heading for a crisis far worse than climate change if people don't have more children.

It is scary isn’t it.

i wanted 3 but stopped at 2 for financial reasons- but we are the lucky ones who managed to buy a house in 2009 when no one could get a mortgage (dh worked for a retail bank back then so we had a mortgage offer), 6 months later we wouldn’t have been able to afford a house this size, I’m not sure we’d have had 2 dcs or would have gone for a much larger gap (so only one in nursery at a time so I could keep working) - and I struggled to get pregnant with dc2 with a 3 year gap, deliberately leaving it longer might have ruled out the second.

Also people are and will have to make harder choices in the future, as the average home for instance can’t be afforded by two people on average wages

If you want to work more and progress your career, it’ll be hard to have more children. If you don’t want to work as much, how will you afford a house for all your children?

It's the kind of conundrum that is evened out by multi-generational living - but I'd rather walk into the bowels of the climate crisis with nothing more than a white flag than live with my pil.

Because it's easy to say that when you don't have to actually make the decision and live with it. You don't actually know what you'd do if you'd been at the point of having kids in the 2010s because you never had to choose to not have kids and see it through to the menopause

I did think about the falling births rate when the teachers strikes were happening and the discussions around how few people were becoming teachers - I really wouldn’t advise anyone to go into teaching now just because there’s a shortage now, give it 5 or so years, schools who expanded for those born in 2008/09/10 will start cutting places again and needing less teachers.

@Sourcherriesarebest that post actually made me cry as so much rang true to my experience and I realised just how fucked up the UK is for mums now

On similar income. I currently personally save at least 20k a year on top of the fees for DS (15k). We don’t have expensive cars & have a smaller house than we can afford, but I don’t feel like we’re stretching. No real sacrifices have needed to be made.

But I don't care what other women do or don't do with their choices? Similarly, you have absolutely NO idea what goes on in other women's lives and what they would or wouldn't do with access to a time machine. I wouldn't have had kids. That impacts you and anybody else how exactly?

I'm not making any comment on anybody's else's decision to have children at all, I really don't have an opinion on it, but I do for myself. Is that ok with you?

I think 'virtue signalling' is hugely overused on this site an it's trite and annoying.

Hardly surprising - so many factors! Cost of living, cost of housing, salaries not keeping up with those costs, childcare costs, overpopulation, global warming, overstretched NHS/maternity care. Plus most women having to take the hit career/lifestyle wise, and the fact they can make a genuine choice not to have kids nowadays. I don't see what the problem is though.

Thing is that Sweden, with loads of maternity benefits/ affordable childcare etc has a lower birthdate than the U.K. so it’s really not about money, or at least not predominantly about that. I think it’s just that more people are choosing to have no kids as it’s now far more socially acceptable ( plus obviously some people can’t or don’t by circumstance- ie don’t meet anyone) , and those who do have fewer so they’re no longer balancing out the “no kids”. So for example i have 2, my sister had none, DH’s brother has 2, his sister one, his other brother one. So on average we’re below replacement.

We're going to hell in a handcart. I have a 4 year old and it's genuinely terrifying to imagine how life will change. Climate change, the impact on food chains, the levels of human movement in response to truly apocalyptic change in countries facing constant drought etc. I wish I'd ignored my hormones that made me want a baby.

Pregnant with my first at 30 would’ve loved one earlier but wanted to be financially secure. I’m dreading the nursery costs!

2 kids in private school has me done.

I would have loved more but marriage broke down and I'm financially responsible for 2 humans with no financial capacity for any more.

I still fantasise about having more children though.

But yet, when you look at human history there’s probably never been a better time to be alive.

“wait but why” did a great thought experiment when they said “ pick a time in human history to be born. Your socio-economic status and gender are chosen at random”. Nearly everyone said “now”.

You make a good point generally although improvements for women is one reason why birth rate drops. So I guess it might not be so surprising

To be fair, most people have grossly incorrect understanding of typical life conditions in the past, so I wouldn't base anything on what "most people" think.

I'm having my first, but I currently doubt I'll have a second.

Maternity care is pants. We can give better resources to the first if he's an only. I certainly doubt I'll fancy doing it all again for a iffy set of circumstances.

Sounds like you’ve got just the one though?

I’m still on the fence, but if we do have a baby, DP and I are aligned on having just one.

(On a similar income to you and the other poster, definitely want to go down the private school route.)