Thread 28 Sunak : Lords, Ladies and Lame Ducks

[DuncinToffee]

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https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4835909-thread-27-sunak-the-ship-is-sinking-hold-your-nerve?page=1

The Conservatives won't be able to use ULEZ nationally.

I imagine Dorries believes Selby strengthens her hands a bit - if it could happen there, it could happen anywhere. All those large Tory majorities don't look quite so safe.

I was thinking this. Labour still have a lot of work to do to win over a percentage of the population. This might focus the minds.

I woke on and off and nearly caught a couple of the results live.

Disappointing for Uxbridge but very close

Somerton... wow, well done LDs, what a swing
Selby, Labour romped hom

I think that would go against the Tories. She'd lose.

I'll bet Dorries - and her book - want to go to Conference and maybe attend a few fringe meetings calling for Johnson's return.

I wonder if the Uxbridge result is actually helpful as it will force Labour to up their game somewhat for the GE. As an aside, who TF is still voting Tory?! Sigh.

Is it a good look for Sunak (on the back of Goldsmith's resignation letter as well) to be on the side of polluting the environment?

There may be local areas like Uxbridge where it plays well, but I wonder if in traditional Tory shires this will go down badly, as have Brexit, and the lies.

And if it is a warning to the 893 Green voters in Uxbridge and others in similar constituencies that if they want a party in power that is not 100% on the side of the polluters then they need to vote for the party that is the not the Tories who are most likely to win.

"Is it a good look for Sunak (on the back of Goldsmith's resignation letter as well) to be on the side of polluting the environment?

There may be local areas like Uxbridge where it plays well, but I wonder if in traditional Tory shires this will go down badly, as have Brexit, and the lies"

I think the LibDems will hold the whip hand in the Shires. I'm in a Shire and Brexit, Lies, Truss, the economy, housing costs and environmental issues all hot topics.

I think these by-elections demonstrate very well the erosion of the Conservative vote in rural and semi-rural areas as a result of the agricultural sector being thrown under the Brexit bus. I live in an area that was heavily reliant on Eastern European agricultural workers, especially fruit pickers. There’s a lot of anger here.

"Sir John Curtice says that across all three by elections the average drop in Tory support is 21%

These by elections are consistent with the depressing messages of the opinion polls that the Tories are a long way behind"

twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1682271124829134848?s=46&t=Uw4lJNwxFZFnX0Xs3doHYg

I wouldn't call it depressing!

The Lib Dems are talking of 15 constituencies in the SW where the Conservative majority over them in 2019 was smaller than Somerton and Frome.

What is interesting to me is places like Mid-Bedfordshire, Tunbridge Wells (where I have connections) and other Shire constituencies I have looked at that the predictions seem to suggest that Labour are likely to take them from the Cons not the Lib Dems, which is surprising to me. Splitting the not Con vote worries me in those kind of seats.

So agree with this. And then you have Liz Webster (Chair of Save British Food and LD Wiltshire) is very vocal for farmers in the SW and regularly is on radio and TV talking about how Brexit has decimated farmers' livelihoods.

"Splitting the not Con vote worries me in those kind of seats."
Yes. I'd like to see a pact. Tactical voting information will be important.

Greg Hands just been on BBC news not doing the Tory's any favours.

My favourites. Selby not unexpected to be Labour. It was until 2010.

Well yes - it was until you took over and 13 years of your government and they've reverted back.

We had the usual - low Tory turn out.

Sadiq Kahn.

Starmer flip flops and no one wants a flip flopping Pm. (Well I'm hoping they don't want Tory PM whether!)

Got the 5 pledges in there and managed to mention the illegal migration bill being passed.

The more I hear Yory ministers speak the more I just think they have nothing to offer but soundbites blaming everyone else for their decisions.

Greg hands was so arrogant , but the bbc presenter just didn't push him enough.
How he can say that the Labour Party ' flip flop ' on policies is a joke considering what the conservatives have been up to the last 13 years.

Well the Tory's largest U turn was Truss & Kwarteng.
Does nobody remember A levels during Covid, the Windfall tax, the Bill of Rights etc?

There were boundary changes in 2010, so comparing Selby with the new constituency of Selby and Ainsty is not precisely the same area, although very similar. Greg Hands ought to know that it seems to invariably vote in general elections for the party that wins. Worth noting that as a constituency it is more akin to Shire counties than Red Wall.

By my reckoning Watford was the 40th smallest Con majority over Labour in 2019. To turn Labour it would need a swing of 7.6% so a little larger than the swing in Uxbridge. If there was a uniform Uxbridge size swing, Labour would be the largest party, presuming the Lib Dems picked off 10 or so Con seats. There are a good number of seats they could take with small swings.``````````````````````````

By my reckoning Watford was the 40th smallest Con majority over Labour in 2019. To turn Labour it would need a swing of 7.6% so a little larger than the swing in Uxbridge. If there was a uniform Uxbridge size swing, Labour would be the largest party, presuming the Lib Dems picked off 10 or so Con seats. There are a good number of seats they could take with small swings

I am sure the data analysts are posing over each constituency and looking at what could happen.

Along with the tactical voting possibilities.

It's the constituencies where Labour and Lib Dems are close seconds that could be interesting as well

The lib Dems were always big in the west country in the 70s , so not surprised they did well yesterday. Might be a big resurgence for them in that part of the Uk?
I like the look of Selby's new MP
Only 25. Maybe one to watch ?

Ther are a further 25 constituencies (in adition to the 40 I mentioned earlier) with smaller numerical Con majorities over Labour. Number 25 on that list being Penistone and Stocksbridge. To oust the MP who shares views, as previously discussed with the Russian Health minister would require significant tactical voting and a much larger (13%) swing. We can hope?

Anyone from outside mid Beds has a vision of it that doesn't match what it is in fact like, must say. Yes, a lot of it is 'shire' but there are sizeable urban settlements too and I would not characterise much of Mid Beds as posh, or as very Brexity, even though it voted that way.

I am really worried about the not Con vote in mid Beds.

I hope Labour are wise enough to get an old timer, perhaps Harriet Harman to mentor him.

The Tories are trying to throw "red meat" to keep parts of the red wall but at the same time, this "red meat" may be alienating its voters in other areas who are turned away from that.

There are some prominent Tory MPs who may well be turning off people who were their voters because of their views and comments.

TBH though

Conservative 38,692
Labour Rhiannon 14,028
Liberal Democrats 8,171
Green Gareth Ellis 2,478

So there is a large Conservative majority already - so it would need a lot for the Conservatives to lose.