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Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

998 replies

MagicFox · 06/06/2023 13:13

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

  1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events
  1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content
  1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful
OP posts:
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161
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/06/2023 10:08

I think - well no, I hope - the silence is the silence of whispers in high places and not the silence of inaction.

The US is working to declassify documents that they believe show Russia caused this. Hopefully after this is done there will be more action.

notimagain · 07/06/2023 10:09

ISW cannot offer a definitive assessment of responsibility for the June 6 incident at this time but finds that the balance of evidence, reasoning, and rhetoric suggests that the Russians deliberately damaged the dam.

Agreed...there's is zero credible evidence the Ukrainians have anything in their inventory or even rumoured to be in their inventory that could have caused this damage to be inflicted from a distance.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/06/2023 10:12

Given the Russians controlled the dam for a year now and the claim is that there were explosions in the control and turbine rooms, I fail to see how anyone could think that it wasn't them.

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 07/06/2023 10:15

It makes no sense at all for Ukraine to have done it. They will have no benefit from it whatsoever.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/06/2023 10:26

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Zelensky: Ukraine to receive ‘significant number’ of F-16 fighter jets (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-to-receive-significant-number-of-f-16-fighter-jets/).
President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a press conference that Ukraine will receive a "significant number" of F-16 fighter jets, based on discussions with European partners, Suspilne reported on June 6.

⚡️Media: Australia may send its 41 retired F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets to Ukraine, the Australian Financial Review reported on June 6. Canberra is reportedly discussing this possibility with the American and Ukrainian partners. (https://kyivindependent.com/media-australia-considers-sending-f-a-18-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/).

⚡️ Governor: Water level at Kakhovka Reservoir has fallen (https://kyivindependent.com/governor-water-level-at-kakhovka-reservoir-has-fallen-by-almost-1-5-meters/) by almost 1.5 meters. [Yesterday, 13:29]

⚡️IAEA chief to lead mission to Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant (https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-chief-to-lead-mission-to-zaporizhzhia-plant-after-kakhovka-dam-breach/)after** Kakhovka dam demolition.
Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, will lead an IAEA mission to the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant after the Kakhovka dam demolition.

⚡️Official: Kakhovka dam was blown up by Russia's 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade. (https://kyivindependent.com/official-kakhovka-dam-was-blown-up-by-russias-205th-motorized-rifle-brigade/)
The Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant's dam in Kherson Oblast was blown up by Russia's 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade, National Security and Defense Council chief Oleksii Danilov said on June 6, as cited by Ukrainian news outlet Liga.
The brigade members have been stationed at the power plant near Russian-occupied Nova Kakhovka and controlled the facility.

⚡️White House: 'We cannot say conclusively who is responsible for Kakhovka dam breach (https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-we-cannot-say-conclusively-who-is-responsible-for-kakhovka-dam-breach/).' [Yet]

⚡️Zelensky: Kakhovka dam explosion will not prevent liberation of occupied territories (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-7/).

⚡️Official: Ukraine to build (https://kyivindependent.com/official-ukraine-to-build-new-station-instead-of-destroyed-kakhovka-hydroelectric-plant/) new station instead of destroyed Kakhovka hydroelectric plant.
Ukraine will build a new power plant on the site of the destroyed Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant located on the Russian-occupied east bank of the Dnipro River once it liberates the territory, head of Ukraine's state-owned energy company Ukrhydroenergo Ihor Syrota said on June 6.

⚡️ Government to allocate $40.6 million (https://kyivindependent.com/government-to-allocate-40-6-million-for-new-water-mains/) for new water mains. The water mains are to provide drinking water supplies to Kryvy Rih, Nikopol, and Marganets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to Shmyhal. The construction work will begin immediately.

⚡️Zelensky: Consequences of Kakhovka dam destruction to be clear within week (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-consequences-of-kakhovka-dam-destruction-to-be-clear-within-week/). when the water level in flooded areas goes down, Zelensky said on June 6, as reported by Ukrinform news outlet.

⚡️Ukrhydroenergo: Kakhovka Reservoir to disappear (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrhydroenergo/) in 2-4 days, according to Ukryhdroenergo's director Ihor Syrota.

⚡️State Emergency Service: Increased threat from dislodged mines in Kherson Oblast (https://kyivindependent.com/state-emergency-service-increased-mine-threat-in-kherson-oblast-due-to-flooding-after-kakhovka-dam-explosion/) due to flooding.

⚡️Russian proxy in Crimea claims (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-proxy-in-crimea-claims-no-water-shortages-on-peninsula/) no water shortages on peninsula.
Moscow-installed head of occupied Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, claimed on June 6 that the peninsula's water reservoirs were "about 80% full" following Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant supplying Crimea with water.
Aksyonov said there was no threat of flooding on the peninsula, but a 400-kilometer-long North Crimean Canal, linking occupied Crimea with the Dnipro River, might lose some water. Aksyonov added the peninsula allegedly had "more than enough" drinking water supplies.

⚡️Kuleba: EU to help Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-eu-to-help-ukraine-ease-consequences-of-kakhovka-dam-destruction/) ease consequences of Kakhovka dam destruction.

⚡️Wheat prices rise (https://kyivindependent.com/wheat-prices-rise-after-kakhovka-dam-explosion/) after Kakhovka dam explosion.
Wheat prices rose by 3% after the explosion of the Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine on June 6, with the flooding threatening local agricultural production, according to the market data tracking service Barchart Trader.

⚡️Kyiv Independent: No panic in Kherson amid partial evacuation.

⚡️NGO: Zoo in occupied Nova Kakhovka completely flooded (https://kyivindependent.com/social-media-zoo-in-nova-kakhovka-completely-flooded/), all animals but birds dead.

⚡️Bulgaria's new defense minister vows to support Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/bulgarias-new-defense-minister-vows/) with military aid.

⚡️ France signs agreement on debt repayment suspension (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-france-agree-on/) for Ukraine.

⚡️Governor: Russia fires at ammonia pipeline (https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russia-again-shells-ammonia-pipeline-in-kharkiv-oblast/) in Kharkiv Oblast for second time. As of yet, ammonia has not been recorded in the air, and the situation remains under control, Syniehubov said.

⚡️Zelensky: Ukraine retrieved 2,500 POWs (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-retrieved-2-500-pows-since-start-of-russian-invasion/)since start of Russian full-scale invasion.
Zelensky said at a June 6 press conference that since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine has brought back about 2,500 prisoners of war, including about 370 civilians.

⚡️Prosecutors: 63 journalists from 14 countries killed (https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutor-general-63-journalists-killed-by-russia-since-start-of-full-scale-invasion/) by Russia's war since Feb. 24, 2022.

⚡️Zelensky meets Pope Francis' envoy (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-pope-francis-envoy-urges-vatican-to-support-ukrainian-peace-formula/), urges Vatican to support Ukrainian peace formula.

Investigative Stories from Ukraine: Journalists find Ukrainian politicians, officials vacationing in France during war
(https://kyivindependent.com/investigative-stories-from-ukraine-journalists-find-ukrainian-politicians-officials-vacationing-in-france-during-wa/)

Again high losses - nearly 900 troops and no less than thirty seven artillery gone plus a plane and 4 MLRS. Yesterday a helicopter was destroyed.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/06/2023 10:27

Again high losses - nearly 900 troops and no less than thirty seven artillery gone plus a plane and 4 MLRS. Yesterday a helicopter was destroyed.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
bluetongue · 07/06/2023 10:43

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/06/2023 10:27

Again high losses - nearly 900 troops and no less than thirty seven artillery gone plus a plane and 4 MLRS. Yesterday a helicopter was destroyed.

I know they’re the ‘enemy’ but over 200000 Russian troops dead is still tragic.

Yes, many Russian soldiers have committed war crimes but no doubt plenty of the dead were merely cannon fodder or in some cases sent to fight against their will (correct me if I’m wrong about that).

War is awful 😥

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/06/2023 11:02

Yes, many Russian soldiers have committed war crimes but no doubt plenty of the dead were merely cannon fodder or in some cases sent to fight against their will (correct me if I’m wrong about that).

There is no doubt you are 100% correct. Also, some individual soldiers will not be going on with the savagery of others.

I'll admit that right now though, it's hard to be rational or fair. My feelings are that they are not the civilians getting mass raped, tortured, starving and now unhoused or outright drowning. Nor will they have to live in the ruined environment. And it's the Russian military who almost certainly gave the orders to breach the dam which will have effects on not only Ukraine but on Africa and other land dependent on Ukrainian grain.

jgw1 · 07/06/2023 11:08

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/06/2023 11:02

Yes, many Russian soldiers have committed war crimes but no doubt plenty of the dead were merely cannon fodder or in some cases sent to fight against their will (correct me if I’m wrong about that).

There is no doubt you are 100% correct. Also, some individual soldiers will not be going on with the savagery of others.

I'll admit that right now though, it's hard to be rational or fair. My feelings are that they are not the civilians getting mass raped, tortured, starving and now unhoused or outright drowning. Nor will they have to live in the ruined environment. And it's the Russian military who almost certainly gave the orders to breach the dam which will have effects on not only Ukraine but on Africa and other land dependent on Ukrainian grain.

It is surely also going to have quite a long term impact in Russia losing so many young men in a country which already had an ageing population.

Mb76 · 07/06/2023 11:33

jgw1 · 07/06/2023 11:08

It is surely also going to have quite a long term impact in Russia losing so many young men in a country which already had an ageing population.

I would hardly call it “an ageing population”. Life expectancy in Russia was 64 years for men and about 75 years for women in 2022. Yes it will have an impact on the future generations to come but it’s the price of war that their country stated.

Ukraine, on the other hand, has a much smaller population than Russia and already about a third of it are not currently in Ukraine. Many will never return.

I find it hard to sympathise with Russian losses. I am unapologetically bitter and angry.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 07/06/2023 11:35

I cant read the news or watch videos atm. Its just too galling. My feeling is that whilst Russia creates hell in Ukraine, they are unwittingly storing up their own hell in Russia. Returning to a defeated, isolated and greatly diminished Russia with life changing injuries, the loss of a generation of men and a destroyed economy will be its own special kind of hell.

blueshoes · 07/06/2023 11:54

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 07/06/2023 11:35

I cant read the news or watch videos atm. Its just too galling. My feeling is that whilst Russia creates hell in Ukraine, they are unwittingly storing up their own hell in Russia. Returning to a defeated, isolated and greatly diminished Russia with life changing injuries, the loss of a generation of men and a destroyed economy will be its own special kind of hell.

You are right, Hills. The pigeons will come home to roost for Russia, for generations to come.

Ukraine's allies will be focused on re-building a better Ukraine.

blueshoes · 07/06/2023 11:58

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/06/2023 10:08

I think - well no, I hope - the silence is the silence of whispers in high places and not the silence of inaction.

The US is working to declassify documents that they believe show Russia caused this. Hopefully after this is done there will be more action.

I am hoping the ISW or US are quiet because they gathering strong evidence of Russian sabotage. They have to to convince China and the global south, to the extent they are listening.

When the condemnations come, I hope there will be announcements of escalations on military support for Ukraine.

Getting their ducks in a row, is my hope.

Mb76 · 07/06/2023 12:01

blueshoes · 07/06/2023 11:58

I am hoping the ISW or US are quiet because they gathering strong evidence of Russian sabotage. They have to to convince China and the global south, to the extent they are listening.

When the condemnations come, I hope there will be announcements of escalations on military support for Ukraine.

Getting their ducks in a row, is my hope.

I hope so too.

Igotjelly · 07/06/2023 12:13

Looks like things are moving with regards to the Swiss providing aid to Ukraine. Dmytro Kuleba just Tweeted: "I thank the Swiss parliament's upper house for an important move to unblock the re-export of Swiss-made weapons. We are looking forward to the next steps. I am grateful to Switzerland for its solidarity with Ukraine while upholding its neutrality."

blueshoes · 07/06/2023 12:59

If this incident with the dam helps to unblock Swiss feet-dragging and flip-flopping, that is a good result. It remains to be seen though.

Igotjelly · 07/06/2023 13:14

I hadn’t realised either that these NATO exercises about the take place in Germany will be the largest air deployment exercise in the bloc’s history. 10,000 participants, 250 aircraft and 25 countries.

Wonder what, if anything, the Russians will do in response. Jump up and down and shout angry words I would imagine.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/06/2023 13:23

UNITED24 Media Telegram

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit China in the coming weeks and possibly meet with Xi Jinping, — Bloomberg with reference to sources.

❗️Hearings on Russia's recognition of a violation of the UN anti-terrorist agreement began in The Hague, the Ukrainian delegation mentioned the blowing up of the Kakhovska HPP in its speech, — Reuters.

Zelenskyy is convinced that Ukraine should liberate its own territory, and not go further into Russian territory, as this will take more lives of Ukrainian soldiers, and international partners will not approve such a move

The Russian occupiers are not evacuating the civilian population from the flooded settlements of the Kherson region, although they have withdrawn their own troops, — the permanent representative of Ukraine at the UN Security Council, Sergiy Kyslytsya.
During an extraordinary meeting of the Security Council, the diplomat noted that after the explosion at the Kakhovska HPP in the territory controlled by Ukraine, the evacuation of 17 settlements, where more than 17,000 people live, in the occupied areas of the Left Bank, 20 towns and villages with a population of about 25,000 are subject to evacuation.

"There will be big problems with fresh water", — President Zelenskyy on the consequences of blowing up the Kakhovska HPP

About 300 animals died in the Kazkova Dibrova Zoo due to the flooding.
Animals were blocked. The park was mined, all roads were blocked, and the evacuation of animals was impossible. [Notable mainly for the statemetn that the Russians were mining a zoo]

China is deeply concerned about the situation around the Kakhovska HPP and its environmental consequences, said the representative of the People's Republic of China, Zhang Jun at the meeting of the UN Security Council. [such a shame their concern didn't extend to talking to Ukraine for over a year.]

It is too early to draw any conclusions regarding the circumstances of the destruction of the Kakhovska HPP dam, — Prime Minister of Great Britain Rishi Sunak, reports The Telegraph.

The scale of the disaster caused by the explosion of the Kakhovska HPP dam will become apparent in the coming days. Still, it is already clear that it will have far-reaching consequences for thousands of people, said UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths at a meeting of the Security Council.
The destroyed dam was crucial in providing water to agricultural lands south of the Kherson region and on the Crimean peninsula. Prolonged flooding will disrupt agricultural activities, damage livestock, and fisheries, and cause far-reaching, long-term effects. This is a significant blow to the food manufacturing sector," Griffiths said.

🔻As a result of the destruction of the Kakhovska HPP next year, the fields in the south of Ukraine may turn into deserts, predicts the Ministry of Agrarian Policy
94% of irrigation systems in the Kherson region, 74% in the Zaporizhzhia region, and 30% in the Dnipropetrovsk region may remain without a water source.

The head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration, Oleksandr Prokudin, said that after the explosion of the Kakhovska HPP, as of this morning, 1,852 houses in the right-bank Kherson region have already been flooded, and due to the significant destruction of the dam, water will continue to arrive

Bulgaria's new pro-European government has confirmed that it will help Ukraine with weapons
Newly appointed Defense Minister Todor Tagarev said he supports military aid to Ukraine amid its counteroffensive against Russian forces

🇨🇭The upper house of the Swiss parliament approved an amendment to the law that will allow the re-export of weapons to Ukraine, — the parliament's press service.
The day before, the lower house voted against the amendment — now, the deputies will consider it again

According to a European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) survey, the number of Europeans who consider Russia an enemy has doubled.
According to ECFR, about 64% of respondents from 11 EU countries who took part in the survey said that they see Russia as a competitor (9%) or an adversary (55%) — this is twice as much as in 2021.
About 39% of Hungarians and 65% of Bulgarians see Russia as an ally or a necessary partner.
Again, opinion is divided, with Poland (39%) most favoring cutting all ties with Russia. In comparison, Germany (26%), Hungary (32%), Austria (36%), and Bulgaria (51%) show strong support for full post-war cooperation with the Russian Federation.

Finland expels nine employees of the Russian embassy in Helsinki, — Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The Russians are suspected of conducting intelligence activities.

Residents of the Belgorod region began to sell off housing en masse after the terrorist attacks on its territory, — The Moscow Times.
Since the beginning of the war in the Belgorod region, prices per square meter have fallen by 4%, TsIAN experts have calculated on behalf of The Moscow Times.
According to a European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) survey, the number of Europeans who consider Russia an enemy has doubled.
According to ECFR, about 64% of respondents from 11 EU countries who took part in the survey said that they see Russia as a competitor (9%) or an adversary (55%) — this is twice as much as in 2021.

A magnetometer in Bucharest recorded the explosion of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric dam
This was announced on his Twitter by an independent researcher, physicist Richard Cordaro.
This may indicate that the dam was destroyed as a result of the detonation of the planted explosives by the Russian occupiers and not self-destruction or external shelling.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/06/2023 13:26

It was an interesting comment by Rishi Sunak, that it's too soon to draw conclusions. It does seem the leaders are trying to be measured.

Igotjelly · 07/06/2023 13:30

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/06/2023 13:26

It was an interesting comment by Rishi Sunak, that it's too soon to draw conclusions. It does seem the leaders are trying to be measured.

Indeed, making sure their ducks are in a row.

Very interesting timing for an announcement on a potential Blinken/Xi meeting too I thought. Assume it’s rescheduling the previous visit that was postponed after balloon-gate but still interesting.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/06/2023 13:41

It is rescheduling yes - I cut that bit out as it was getting rather long.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/06/2023 14:04

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Russian soldier Yehor Guzenko, who is in Kherson region, confirmed that russians blew up Kakhovska HPP
He is happy and calls for blowing up other dams.

In terms of environmental and economic consequences, the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP for Ukraine can be equated to the consequences of using tactical nuclear weapons of 5-10 kilotons, - OSINT researchers of InformNapalm.
The factors of such destruction are virtually identical to a nuclear explosion, except for radiation contamination:
1. Evacuation of the population, destruction of enterprises and facilities with harmful and poisonous substances (chlorine, ammonia, oil products, etc.).
2. Destruction of water supply, sewerage, electricity, collapse of food and medical logistics.
3. Pollution of a part of the Black Sea and other consequences.
According to the Geneva Convention (Article 56 of Additional Protocol I of 1977), the destruction of dams is a war crime and can be equated to the use of weapons of mass destruction.

The situation on the occupied left bank of the Kherson region is even worse [than on the West] . The occupation authorities say that seven people are missing. Between 22 and 40 thousand people are in the disaster zone. Some villages, such as Korsunka, have been submerged.

The Guardian has published new satellite images of the flooded Kherson region. The photos cover more than 2,500 square kilometers of the area between Nova Kakhovka and the Dnipro Bay.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/06/2023 14:14

Reading stuff that can only make you put your head in your hands and weep.

blueshoes · 07/06/2023 14:21

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/06/2023 14:14

Reading stuff that can only make you put your head in your hands and weep.

It is horrific

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 07/06/2023 14:25

⚡️Russian proxy in Crimea claims (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-proxy-in-crimea-claims-no-water-shortages-on-peninsulaa**/) no water shortages on peninsula.*
Moscow-installed head of occupied Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, claimed on June 6 that the peninsula's water reservoirs were "about 80% full" following Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant supplying Crimea with water.
Aksyonov said there was no threat of flooding on the peninsula, but a 400-kilometer-long North Crimean Canal, linking occupied Crimea with the Dnipro River, might lose some water. Aksyonov added the peninsula allegedly had "more than enough" drinking water supplies."*

How convenient - almost like they knew to prepare for this eventuality.

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