Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

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For now ….

Dom Nichols on Ukraine the Latest is basically saying that the response to the Dam destruction has been far too muted, a lack of a clear strong international response increases considerably the risk of a radiation leak from a nuclear plant or the use of a nuclear weapon because it sends Putin the message that he’s gotten away with it (again).

Yep.

This water problem for Crimea will build up and take years and years to resolve, not least by the war. The shortage may become worse than in Soviet times when the dam was first built with global warming and all.

Couldn’t agree more.

Like others I'm hoping the muted response is because the powers that be are gathering intelligence to show irrefutably that this was a Russian war crime before coming down hard on the aggressors.
I expect Ukraine to be given everything they need for victory.
If that isn't the case then I totally agree the west is playing into Putins hands and worse will follow.

Was that on today's podcast? It hasn't hit my feed yet. Perhaps they drop it later in the US.

Yes today's one. I listen live on Twitter at 1pm, think it's usually on Spotify about 5pm.

Like others I'm hoping the muted response is because the powers that be are gathering intelligence to show irrefutably that this was a Russian war crime before coming down hard on the aggressors.

I suspect that what is happening now is that the US and other Nato nations are sorting through the mountains of signals intelligence (intercepted radio communications, mobile phone calls, etc.) that is routinely collected, trying to find something that definitively ties it to the Russians. Which they'll just deny, but would be useful anyway.

I agree. I know that too Ukrainians it seems like a painfully slow western response. but I think with something of this magnitude, they want to be a 100% sure and have solid evidence before accusations are made, as there will need to be consequences for this.

@MissConductUS

"I suspect that what is happening now is that the US and other Nato nations are sorting through the mountains of signals intelligence (intercepted radio communications, mobile phone calls, etc.) that is routinely collected, trying to find something that definitively ties it to the Russians."

Agreed, it's way too early for any sort of considered response from the the west.

Literally.

I made a donation to the Ukrainian armed forces, and felt slightly better afterwards. Would recommend to those with disposable income.

West won't move quick. Politically it's better to be seen to be moving when the public 'gets it' so there is public support for escalation.

Right now, the public is going 'dam gone' but aren't putting two and two together.

They need exposure to screaming on roof tops to start to grasp it. There needs to be outrage and bodies to get the scale of this and how it's on a par with weapons of mass destruction.

And the drip feed about how it's not just the direct ecological damage. It's also the impact of agricultural lost land that's key. And further to that all the land that is supplied by the dam for irrigation. It means crop yields even in places that aren't flooded are screwed. That means famine in some parts of the world. That means food prices going up again.

That's an extension of the plan Russia already had in place to lever politically to cut support and gain allies.

I can imagine that putting press on energy supply will also be focused on again going into Autumn.

There's also the impact on Crimea. This cuts off their water too. So this directly impacts Russians living there. Massive consequences imminent - there's even bigger questions over how Russia will supply anyone living there going forward.

Turkey is going to be hit hard by this as well. As are others like Egypt. That needs to filter through diplomatically.

Putin won't get away with it, cos of the ramifications internally and externally. It's just the speed at which politics can catch up. The west is running it's supplies down so the limits start to become what is left that we can supply... And how long that will take.

I don't understand the concern for water in Crimea, I get that it's an important source but I thought Ukaine cut off the canal for several years after it was illegally annexed anyway.

Rishi Sunak being interviewed in Washington just now basically saying nothing else is going to happen because of the dam attack.

Which would lead me to believe there isn’t sufficient concrete evidence to link Russia to it.

Possibly... all very 'well there's lots in place already...'

The ISW have been very cautious in their official assessment too, suggesting that “on the balance of probability” it is likely Russia deliberately damaged the dam. Not very authoritative.

@StormShadow

I made a donation to the Ukrainian armed forces, and felt slightly better afterwards. Would recommend to those with disposable income.

Understood. I'm not poor, not rich, have income flowing in. I donate something in some way every week. It does not have to be a lot. Just wringing my hands is not an option. I do a little to raise awareness, share information and contribute financially.

@Surplus2requirements

I don't understand the concern for water in Crimea, I get that it's an important source but I thought Ukraine cut off the canal for several years after it was illegally annexed anyway.

Yes, it was cut off just north of Perekop in Ukrainian held territory until the Russian invasion. One of my first thoughts on seeing the dam destruction was 'what about Crimean irrigation?', but I don't think a better, more productive Crimea is a Russian goal. The shortfall in irrigation water after annexation was partly made up from diverting water that fell in the mountains in the South of Crimea, but mostly wasn't made up at all.

Similarly installing a local administration in Kherson city when it fell and declaring the area for ever Russian didn't stop shelling of the city after withdrawing.

And the same goes for flooding occupied areas following the dam destruction, containing a local population you pretend to have liberated and, it seems, some of your own troops.

There's no concern to make things better. It is more 'we want it, it's ours, if we can't have it we can destroy it'.

I am guessing it might be hard to get conclusive smoking gun evidence against Russia. Similar to the suspected underwater attacks on the Nordstream gas pipelines.

If Russia planted charges, they may have done it under the cover of darkness many months ago.

Just my speculation. It would be a crying shame we could not find out who caused this humanitarian and ecological disaster. It has to be Russia as why would Ukraine shoot itself in the foot. It makes me despair if Russia gets away with this. It will only embolden them.

PS good to see you again @RedToothBrush

On young Russian soldiers.

Consider reading Babchenko's 'One Soldier's War..' if you haven't already and want a perspective on being a teenaged Russian soldier dispatched to fight a senseless war. [I make no endorsement of later Babchenko - born Moscow of Ukrainian and Jewish heritage - where in exile he staged a mock assassination of himself with Ukrainian security forces and from that point everything just took truly weird turns. His photographs from the Georgia / S Ossetia War were excellent and his memoir is solid.]

There's no concern to make things better. It is more 'we want it, it's ours, if we can't have it we can destroy it'.

They want to make things worse, actually. What Russia does not want is an economically prosperous, functioning democracy in Ukraine.

I liked this analysis, but it's a bit dense. It's still worth a look.

What is Russia’s Strategy in Ukraine?

The Modern War Insitute is part of the military studies program at the US Military Academy at West Point. They've done some really good coverage of the war in Ukraine. It's not news coverage, it's analysis.

Good link.

Though vital, I suspect that explanation of most things Russian can only reach, say, an 80% level if done with a western analytical mind.

Looking back through Babchenko material, I'm reminded of some of the stories: the Chechen enemy who turn out to be in the next building, the Cow, the Dog.

This article from 2018 summarises a lot of what he writes about and compares it to GWOT etc. memoirs. Hosted by UCL and from 'Slovo'.

https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10048847/

If the link doesn't work, it's: Clark, EP; Stinson, L; One Soldier's War and the New Literary War Hero

Understood. I'm not poor, not rich, have income flowing in. I donate something in some way every week. It does not have to be a lot. Just wringing my hands is not an option. I do a little to raise awareness, share information and contribute financially

It all helps, I think. Financial support, involvement in the information space, bullying troll farm operatives, aiding refugees. Everyone does what they can.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1666514248401289216 Albanian permanent representative to the U.N part speech about the blowing up of the dam

There are murmurs starting of European countries perhaps sending troops individually, it seems.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/07/nato-members-may-send-troops-to-ukraine-warns-former-alliance-chief

"A group of Nato countries may be willing to put troops on the ground in Ukraine if member states including the US do not provide tangible security guarantees to Kyiv at the alliances’s summit in Vilnius, the former Nato secretary general Anders Rasmussen has said."

it's very early days for any action, but it's the first time I've seen anyone even mention this at all as a possibility.