Interesting article from Chris Curtis
I have written for @thetimes this morning about why that "1000 Conservative losses" spin is rubbish, and what to look out for in tonight's results.
twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1654016747450540032?s=46&t=Uw4lJNwxFZFnX0Xs3doHYg
"Secondly, it is important to avoid early takes. The wards counting overnight on Thursday will disproportionately include places where the Tories will be making gains from independents, while those counting on Friday will disproportionately contain places where the Tories will be losing seats to Labour. The early results may show the Tories with net gains only for that to reverse by the time everything is counted.
Finally, follow the marginals. If we are trying to work out what this means for the general election, we should look at the Labour v Conservative battleground seatss_ that will decide the result. Is Labour making gains in places such as Swindon, Milton Keynes, Dover and Blackpool? If you look at the vote totals in the wards that will make up Labour’s target seats at the next election, which party is winning the popular vote?
That will give us an indication of whether Labour is increasing its vote share among the kind of voters who will decide the next election and how good the party’s ground operation is."