Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

[MagicFox]

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 🇺🇦

Russian Swimming Federation thinks too many hoops (delib) to jump through.

IOC's Conditions for Russian Athletes Unattainable, Head of Russian Swimming Federation Says (sputnikglobe.com)

MissConductUS, appreciate your searching out the best article on how Ukraine's offensive would shape up. 90,000~100,000 troops in 20 brigades sounds like a significant force (to my inexpert eyes).

I note there is no mention of any air force or air cover. Could that be a gap in the offensive in the light of the WSJ article which said the leaked Pentagon papers suggested Ukraine will run out of air defence in May. The leaked report has apparently been circulating since January. I hope Ukraine has since plugged any gaps.

A frantic drone arms race. Makes my head spin. Hopefully this is one area where Ukraine's inventiveness and agility will prevail.

"What you're seeing with these FPV drones is kind of an evolution in terms of ability, speed, capability and price, which is a really important factor," he told the ABC.

"These are more sort of a specialist Ferrari-type drone … designed to be fast and manoeuvrable."

Their range is limited to around 5km to 10km, but a defining capability is how they are controlled.

Pilots strap on goggles with a live-streamed camera feed from the drones, giving them a unique, immersive view.

This allows pilots to be more accurate, and to carry out surprise attacks in enclosed spaces or to loiter and wait for a target.

Small weapons, big targets Various videos have been released, appearing to show dramatic FPV drone attacks.

In one, a drone is seen entering the doorway of a building occupied by Russian troops before exploding.

In footage from December, an FPV drone catches up to a fleeing Russian BMP infantry fighting vehicle and flies directly into the back doors.

Now, nearly weekly, Ukraine is releasing videos claiming to have taken out expensive equipment with its cheap kamikaze drone attacks."

I note there is no mention of any air force or air cover. Could that be a gap in the offensive in the light of the WSJ article which said the leaked Pentagon papers suggested Ukraine will run out of air defence in May.

To a great extent two different issues..

As far as the offensive campaign goes as I understand it (and I think this got a mentioned a week or two back) there are thoughts that the Air environment over any potential battle area is potentially so non-permissive due to (mainly) Russian Ground Based Air Defence that the Ukrainians will not be able to rely on air cover in large amounts to provide Interdiction and also Close Air Support or and other ops in support of a ground offensive...we will see I guess.

The stuff in the papers today is about a possible shortage of Surface to Air missiles - which would very much hinder the defence of Ukrainian assets (both military and civilian) both near the front line and way back into Ukraine itself. Up until now the Russian air force has largely been unable to operate over Ukrainian held territory, lets hope that continues.

Whether that story has any legs is another a wait and see.

@notimagain thank you for the explanation.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-10-2023

Key Takeaways

• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly advancing his political aspirations by seeking to gain control of a Russian political party.

• Putin may be unable to satisfy the role of a patron to loyalist figures to the same extent as he had been able to before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

• The Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) directly responded to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s criticisms of its agenda at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), marking the first time that a Russian government institution has formally responded to Prigozhin’s criticism.

• The Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) attack on Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is a continuation of the Kremlin’s efforts to discredit and undermine Prigozhin.

• Russian milbloggers adamantly decried the charging of Russian military doctor and “Union of Donbas Volunteers” member Yuri Yevich for “discrediting the Russian armed forces,” suggesting that the broad applications of this new law will likely be a growing source of discontent in the pro-war information space.

• The Russian State Duma will consider an amendment to the Russian Criminal Code increasing criminal penalties for high treason and terrorist activities on April 13.

• Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk, Belarus, on April 10.

• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

• Russian forces continued to make territorial gains in and around Bakhmut, and continued ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

• Russian forces continued defensive preparations in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.

• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin criticized Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) prisoner recruitment efforts, likely in an effort to advertise ongoing Wagner volunteer recruitment campaigns.

• Wagner forces are reportedly continuing to commit war crimes by beheading Ukrainian servicemen in Bakhmut.

• Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to deport children to Russia under the guise of medical, rehabilitation, and voluntary evacuation schemes.

[Putin encouraged a lot of these extremely wild and violent, or pro-violence, groups. He's now finding it hard to control them; he controls by bribery, manipulation and violence, but his balancing act seems to be slipping].

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Member of Parliament: Verkhovna Rada votes (https://kyivindependent.com/member-of-parliament-verkhovna-rada-votes-to-return-bonuses-for-military-personnel/) to return bonuses for military personnel.
The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, has approved returning Hr 30,000 ($800) bonuses for soldiers "regardless of the tasks assigned to them or the areas of service," the lawmaker Oleksii Honcharenko said on April 10.

⚡️100 Ukrainian POWs freed (https://kyivindependent.com/100-ukrainians-freed-prisoner-exchange/) in prisoner exchange.
According to the headquarters, nearly half of the released POWs have sustained serious injuries, are suffering from illnesses, or have been tortured. The youngest of the freed POWs is 19 years old.

⚡️Survey: 80% of Poles view (https://kyivindependent.com/survey-nearly-80-of-poles-view-polish-ukrainian-relations-positively/) Polish-Ukrainian relations positively.

⚡️Biden says (https://kyivindependent.com/us-president-joe-biden-announces-plan-to-run-for-second-term/) he'll run for second term.
U.S. President Joe Biden told NBC host Al Roker on April 10 that he plans to run for a second term. "I plan on running, Al, but we’re not prepared to announce it yet,” he said. [ahem !]

⚡️Parliament supports (https://kyivindependent.com/verkhovna-rada-supports-measures-to-exempt-defense-goods-from-vat-customs-duties/) measures to exempt defense goods from VAT, customs duties.

⚡️Denmark to transfer (https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-tanks-howitzers-coming-months/) Leopard 1 tanks, Caesar howitzers to Ukraine by summer.
Denmark is aiming to start supplying Ukraine with Leopard 1 tanks "by the summer," Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said on April 10.
The Caesar self-propelled howitzers pledged by Denmark in mid-January will likely arrive in Ukraine in the next month, Poulsen said.

Russia’s new guided bombs pose increasingly serious threat to Ukraine
(https://kyivindependent.com/russias-smart-bombs-pose-increasingly-serious-threat-to-ukraine/)
Early this year, Russia introduced guided bombs — essentially, the regular gravity bombs modified to be dropped by multirole fighter-bombers from safe distances and deal precise and very damaging strikes in front-line areas and beyond.
Russian gliding smart bombs now go in comparison with U.S.-provided JDAM-ER bomb kits that Ukraine currently operates as well, with their effective range reaching up to 72 kilometers.

⚡️Opendatabot: 63 churches have switched (https://kyivindependent.com/opendatabot-63-churches-have-switched-to-orthodox-church-of-ukraine-in-2023/) to Orthodox Church of Ukraine in 2023.

⚡️Media: Russian parliament to introduce (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-law-men-banned-leaving-country-avoiding-mobilization/) electronic summonses for conscripts.

⚡️Russian attack on boat in Kherson Oblast injures (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-boat-in-kherson-oblast-injures-2-civilians/) 2 civilians.
A man and a woman, aged 20, from Beryslav were "seriously injured" by a grenade dropped from a Russian drone, Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said.

⚡️Washington Post: Leaked US documents indicate Egypt secretly planned to supply rockets (https://kyivindependent.com/leaked-us-documents-indicate-egypt-secretly-planned-to-supply-rockets-to-russia/) to Russia.
Egypt President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi recently ordered subordinates to produce up to 40,000 rockets to be covertly shipped to Russia, according to a document exclusively obtained by the Washington Post.

⚡️General Staff: Ukrainian forces repel over 50 Russian attacks (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-6/).

⚡️General Staff: Russian proxies in occupied town of Donetsk Oblast fire medics (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russian-proxies-in-occupied-town-of-donetsk-oblast-fire-medics-for-not-taking-russian-passports/) for not taking Russian passports.

more hardware losses today, including one helicopter.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The SBU detained a traitor in Odesa region who was "hunting" for HIMARS and reconnoitering ammunition depots. He is a conscript of one of the brigades of the Ukrainian Navy. The Russians recruited him after the full-scale invasion. Now the conscript faces life in prison for high treason.

Germany may refuse visas to Russian athletes if they are allowed to compete.

On April 14, Brazilian President Lula da Silva will meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. One of the topics of discussion will be Russia's war against Ukraine.

Lukashenko wants guarantees that Moscow will defend Belarus as its own territory in case of an attack on it, he told Russian Defense Minister Shoigu during a meeting in Minsk.

Direct transportation between Chernihiv and Kyiv has been restored, reports the Ministry of Regional Development and Infrastructure.
The half-kilometer bridge over the Desna River, which was destroyed at the beginning of the invasion, has been repaired

Richard Branson, a world-renowned entrepreneur, founder of Virgin Group and Virgin Unite, has become an ambassador of UNITED24, President Zelensky said.

The Shiveluch volcano erupted in Kamchatka, Russia.
According to preliminary data, the height of the ash cloud is 20 kilometers.

Russians have captured the center of Bakhmut, there are street battles in the city, but the occupiers have not been able to surround it. The situation at the front on the 411th day of the great war.
https://telegra.ph/Russians-have-captured-the-center-of-Bakhmut-there-are-street-battles-in-the-city-but-the-occupiers-have-not-been-able-to-surrou-04-10

Ukrainian soldier demonstrates defusing a grenade placed under a mine in a residential building. [clip of a residential house with the mine, with a grenade under it :s]

UNITED24 Media Telegram

💥 There was a powerful explosion near Moscow, after which a huge fire broke out in the warehouse
According to local residents, there is a training ground with decommissioned military equipment at this place. The official version is a balloon explosion at a spare parts warehouse.

Russian Aeroflot sent its plane for repairs to Iran for the first time, as other countries do not service the airline's planes due to sanctions

Ukraine calls on India to take an active part in ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, Deputy Foreign Minister Emine Dzhaparova said in an interview with CNBC TV18.

❗️The United States begins large-scale nuclear deterrence exercises, the command of the US Armed Forces.

By summer, Ukraine will start receiving Leopard 1 tanks from Denmark
We are talking about about 100 tanks, said Acting Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen.
He added that in May Ukraine may receive CAESAR. The Ukrainian military is already undergoing training to work with them at training grounds in Denmark.

If there are pilots who know how to fly the F-16 and want to take part in it, the foreign legion is ready to open the door, – Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov.

The White House does not yet know who is behind the 'leaked' classified documents, said John Kirby, the National Security Council's strategic communications coordinator.
"We don't know what's in those documents, we don't know who's responsible for it, and we don't know if whoever did this has any more documents they want to release," Kirby said in response to questions from reporters during the briefing.

The Ministry of Defense of Bulgaria confirmed the fact of negotiations on the transfer of MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine on the condition of receiving more modern aircraft from Western partners, – EFE agency.

EU countries can take Ukrainian children on vacation, — The Times
It is known that Spain is leading a campaign to organize summer vacations for children from Ukraine. First Deputy Prime Minister Nadia Calviño said she thought it was a good idea. [at least we can be sure that the kids won't be forced to stay in Spain]

⚡️Part of the "leaked" documents was forged, — White House.
The Biden administration still does not know who is behind the leaked classified documents. Experts continue to check published papers and identify fake elements.

🛬 Restrictions on civil aviation flights in the airspace of Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, and Russia will remain in effect until 2029, Eurocontrol predicts. "By the end of this seven-year horizon, a return to "normal" routes (before the closure of the airspace of Ukraine and Russia) is not expected," the forecast emphasizes.

Washington Post Telegram

Russia nearly shot down British spy plane near Ukraine, leaked document says
(https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/09/leaked-documents-surveillance-plane-rivet-joint/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)A Russian fighter jet nearly shot down a British surveillance plane last year, according to a leaked U.S. military document circulating online, an incident more significant than was previously disclosed and that could have drawn the United States and its NATO allies directly into the Ukraine war.
The near miss occurred on Sept. 29 off the coast of Crimea, the heavily fortified Ukrainian peninsula that Russia seized in 2014 and has used to base its Black Sea naval fleet and launch attacks elsewhere in Ukraine.
The document, one of dozens in a trove of leaked classified Pentagon documents that has triggered a Justice Department investigation, refers to the incident as a “near-shoot down of UK RJ,” a reference to the “Rivet Joint” moniker common for RC-135 reconnaissance planes. The aircraft is used to collect radio transmissions and other electronic messages.

• The commander of Ukraine’s ground forces said Russia is bringing in special forces and airborne assault units to reinforce its assault on the eastern city of Bakhmut.

• Russian air defense forces are practicing border protection in the northwest after Finland’s accession to NATO and Sweden’s membership bid, a commander of Russian air defense forces said in comments published Monday.

Eygpt promised to send 40,000 rockets to Russia!! Plus there was talk of gunpowder and artillery rounds. Wonder what the fallout of this will be.

The Russian guided bombs seem to be something of a game changer for Russia. They are difficult to intercept, from what I've read :(

it's clear that Prigozhin has considerably greater ambitions than just Wagner. Curious to see how the Kremlin will handle this rabid dog they've unleashed.

I am not on social media much, this is one of the few places I am, and I just wanted to post this on behalf of the Dees, as Leo requested last night.

The Dees were (and what is left of them are) a wonderful, wonderful family. I shared a study programme with Lucy, Leo was at Cambridge just a few years after my DH doing the same course, my one DS is the same age as Maia, my DD is a year older than Rina. Leo of course held rabbinic positions in London, and therefore we saw him at barmitzvahs and other social occasions, so while I can't say I knew them well and many of our friends were and are much closer to them than we are, we are certainly close enough to feel the loss and it is devastating.

The Russian guided bombs seem to be something of a game changer for Russia. They are difficult to intercept, from what I've read :(

They're suffer from much the same problems/limitations as JDAM-ER etc, in that they are at the end of the day just a bomb.

In order to get decent range they have to be released at high altitude/high speed and if you do that near the front line (to get the bomb well into opposition territory) you put the launch aircraft at risk from any Ground Based Air defence assets the opposition have in forward positions, plus long range fighters with Long range Air to Air missiles (that's most especially a factor for the Ukes trying to bomb Russian targets).

@Naem 💐 it's hard to know what to say, it's awful and I'm so sorry. Thank you for your post - they're certainly in my thoughts

On Naem, I'm very sorry for your loss.

Good for Germany if they are thinking about refusing visas for sportspeople

I wonder if the French might consider this for the Olympics

I'm so sorry

@Naem, I'm so sorry for your loss.

@notimagain the Ukrainian air defense seems to be pretty good about shooting down the other airborne threats but unable to get these?

I hope very much they aren't too much of a threat

the Ukrainian air defense seems to be pretty good about shooting down the other airborne threats but unable to get these?

I'm going to need a bit of clarity because these claims are confusing me TBH

...What's the source for claims that these weapons are particularly hard to shoot down, and what are they being compared with that by comparison are supposed to be "easy"?

As far as I can see it (from what we see in the Press) the Uke air Defence system may have got better organised and more efficient at shooting down long range drones/missiles which are aimed at the major population centres...that's probably because in part the Air Defence assets have ended up concentrated around those centres. Bombs (any bombs) pose a different problem.

As a general point bombs (Russian, US, whatever), even glide bombs have much shorter ranges than the drones, etc that have been hitting cities and the short flight time makes bombs them harder to directly engage....OTOH the carrier aircraft could well be a relative sitting duck so the emphasis will be on engaging the bomber.

Glide bombs generally won't pose as much of a threat to civpop in the major Ukrainian cities as things like Iskander (Surface to surface missile) but I get the impression from some of your comments as if some sources are spinning these bombs as some sort of wonder weapon or game changer and I'm afraid really don't know why.

@Naem I read about the Dees and was heartbroken for them. Sorry for your loss.

I get the impression from some of your comments as if some sources are spinning these bombs as some sort of wonder weapon or game changer and I'm afraid really don't know why.

it's what I've picked up from the three Telegram sources and some Twitter.

Now these Telegram sources are usually reliable but not always. Twitter is more than slightly variable as you know. (the latest was that Biden has -officially- announced he's running again, which he hasn't, not officially). So the claims have to be backed up by asking someone who -does- know (you). The reason I mildly asked again was that there have been repeated claims really, and statements that the planes can stay far away and the bombs reach quite far beyond the front lines with precision strikes. I wondered what you made of it.

What your answer pointed out was that the bombers, in order to stay out of air defense range, have to stay far back so the range of the bombs is much less.

Thanks for your answer.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

To be objective I think there's no doubt these things could cause major problems, countrywide, if the Russian Air Force had the ability to roam at will at high altitude across the entire country....hopefully that is not going to happen so at worse any use will be restricted to areas fairly close to the Front Lines...

ATM I'd possibly the same category as something like JDAM-ER.....not something you'd want to be on the wrong end of, very very useful for "plinking" at selected known targets but perhaps not at the sort of ranges quoted in the media and they're not going to change the course of the war.

Times of Israel on Lucy's funeral - it is the eve of the last day of Passover, so a very difficult time for people to come
https://www.timesofisrael.com/to-lose-a-mother-is-to-lose-life-hundreds-at-funeral-for-terror-victim-lucy-dee/?utm_source=The+Daily+Edition&utm_campaign=daily-edition-2023-04-11&utm_medium=email

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-youth-movement-opens-kibbutz-style-community-center-in-war-torn-ukraine/