Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

[MagicFox]

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 🇺🇦

@Mb76 The Pysanka are exquisite. Thanks for posting. Happy Easter 🐣

Russians kidnapped four employees of the Zaporizhzhia NPP and took them to an unknown destination, – Energoatom

The Times just published an article. Since it is behind a paywall, I have copied extracts below. Apparently Ukraine tried to storm the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in October last year. Kyiv’s great gamble did not pay off. It is not going to be easy to re-take the nuclear plant which remains an ever present and growing nuclear risk. The Russians are even more dug in than in October.

Must Ukraine be able to take the nuclear plant to be able to advance to Crimea? It seems like a tall order.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukrainian-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-russia-putin-war-2023-fx82xz3xz

Ukraine’s secret attempt to retake the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant

"In the dead of night last October a Ukrainian special forces team boarded a 40ft armoured patrol boat, taking up positions at its three heavy machineguns and Mk19 automatic grenade launcher.

They were among nearly 600 elite troops scattered along the north bank of the Dnipro River, which carves through Zaporizhzhia region. The teams boarded more than 30 vessels bristling with weapons, formidable gifts from friends in the West.

Their orders: to launch an assault to recapture the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant from the Russians on the opposite bank.

Kyiv has never acknowledged attacking Europe’s largest nuclear power station but Ukrainian special forces, military intelligence and navy personnel involved have revealed to The Times details of the highly dangerous operation to recover the site.

By the night of the raid, Russian troops had held the power station for over six months, using its territory to bombard Ukrainian cities across the water and a major steel plant in Nikopol. Ukraine’s desperate attempt to retake the facility from President Putin’s troops, and the reasons it gave for doing so, highlight the risk to Europe of nuclear disaster at the contested plant.

Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), visited the site last week in an effort to broker a deal to demilitarise the area around its six nuclear reactors.

“It is very, very important that we agree on the fundamental principle that a nuclear power plant should not be attacked under any circumstances,” Grossi said during his visit, which took place a week after The Times asked the IAEA to comment on the raid. “It shouldn’t be used to attack others, likewise. A nuclear accident with radiological consequences will spare no one.”

“The idea was that this would be an infantry-only battle. They wouldn’t be able to use artillery against us, as this is a nuclear plant,” the officer said. Drawn from select units of Ukraine’s military intelligence, GUR, and including the Shaman battalion, the Kraken Regiment and the Ukrainian Foreign Legion, even the youngest among his brothers-in-arms were already battle-hardened. Yet none of them expected the resistance they would face at the power plant.

“The Russians built a very dense defence, they mined everything,” the officer said. “When we were approaching they even pulled up tanks and artillery and started firing at us right on the water.”

...

His team tried to engage the tanks on the shoreline but it was difficult to fire anti-tank weapons while moving at speed over the water. The larger boats manoeuvred to try to attack Enerhodar from the opposite flank but a constant hail of fire eventually forced all the Ukrainians to withdraw.

“A lot of lives were saved thanks to the commander of this operation. When he realised it would be very, very difficult and we would take heavy casualties, instead of stupidly saying, ‘Go forward!’ he decided we could retreat.”

Even among senior Ukrainian officials who are adamant the Russians must be driven out, the attempt to take the plant by force is considered controversial.
Energoatom’s Kotin said: “If our army can advance south towards Crimea, toward Melitopol, this is the only option — no direct shelling of the plant, no direct advance on the territory of the plant with direct actions against the Russians. It is very dangerous to do such things near nuclear material. Any damage will bring radiation to the people and to the whole world.”

However, the greatest threat to the plant remains the Russian presence there, Kotin stressed. Today the Russians are using control centres as barracks, installing gun emplacements on the roofs of plant buildings and constructing fortifications close to storage sites of radioactive material. They keep ammunition trucks inside the reactors’ turbine halls, risking a nuclear incident that could blight Ukraine for decades, he added.

“We see the progressive degradation of the plant in all directions — the site itself, equipment and personnel; all type of programmes which in normal, peaceful times would be considered unacceptable,” Kotin added.

“We are in a state of emergency, waiting until something bad happens, and that could happen at any time.”

What a damn shame it wasn't successful. That could be one of the lesser pivotal moments.

I know. What a gutsy move and just gutted for Ukraine it did not work.

Maybe that is why they are bleeding Russia at Bakhmut instead so as to soften defences at Zaporizhzhia.

The International Swimming Federation supported the recommendations of the IOC to return neutral status to Russians and Belarusians.

Money or political pressure or both as more international sporting bodies allow Russian and Belarusian athletes back into competitions? Disappointing. As if one year later it doesn’t matter that Russia invaded and continues to devastate and attempt to destroy Ukraine. Those images of @Mb76 are heartbreaking.

Couldn't agree more @DrBlackbird

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-8-2023

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian and Russian sources discussed the decreased rate of Russian offensive operations along the entire frontline on April 8, supporting ISW’s assessment that the overall Russian offensive is approaching culmination.

• The dynamics of battlefield artillery usage in Ukraine reflect the fact that Russian forces are using artillery to offset their degraded offensive capabilities.

• Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin launched a new effort likely aimed at protecting the influence the Russian pro-war faction within the Kremlin.

• The “Club of Angry Patriot’s” reveals several key implications about the Kremlin dynamics and the perceived danger to Putin’s regime.

• Girkin may be advancing the political goals of unnamed figures within Russian power structures possibly within the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB).

• Russian nationalists seized on assassinated Russian milblogger Maxim Fomin’s funeral to promote pro-war narratives.

• Russia’s missile campaign to degrade Ukraine’s unified energy infrastructure has failed definitively, and Russia appears to have abandoned the effort.

• The Kremlin is likely intensifying legal punishments for terrorism-related crimes as part of a larger effort to promote self-censorship and establish legal conditions for intensified domestic repressions.

• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) may be setting conditions for a false flag attack in Sumy Oblast.

• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

• Russian forces have continued to make gains around Bakhmut, and tensions between the Wagner Group and conventional Russian forces over responsibility for tactical gains in Bakhmut appear to be intensifying.

• Russian sources continued to speculate about the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine, including hypothesizing about the possibility of a Ukrainian amphibious landing across the Kakhovka Reservoir.

• The Russian Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) on April 6 proposed a defense industrial base (DIB) deregulation reform that could expedite defense production but will more likely facilitate corruption and embezzlement.

• Ukrainian officials reported that 31 children returned to Ukraine after having been deported to Russia as Russian officials continue to discuss the adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.

Expanded: Girkin formed the “Club of Angry Patriots” social movement along with seven prominent proxy and ultranationalist figures on April 1 seeking to help Russia to win the war and avoid an internal conflict within Russia. .... The club’s preoccupation with the anti-war faction may indicate that the rift within the Kremlin deepened during the failed Russian winter offensive campaign or ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The concern over the expansion of the anti-war faction may also indicate that there is concern that Putin may be driven to accept a peace settlement by the threat of replacement.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️NGO: 31 deported children returned (https://kyivindependent.com/ngo-31-abducted-children-returned-to-ukraine/) to Ukraine.
Ukraine has arranged (https://t.me/uniannet/94720?ref=kyivindependent.com) the return of 31 more children that had been forcibly deported to Russia, Mykola Kuleba, head of the NGO Save Ukraine announced on April 8. The children are expected to arrive in Kyiv in the late afternoon.
Originally, Save Ukraine planned on rescuing 33 children but an elderly woman who was supposed to accompany two of them died before she was able to do so. [reportedly due to 14 hours interrogations, plural, from the FSB]

⚡️Air Force: Increased (https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-incraeased-russian/) Russian use of gliding bombs highlights need for F-16 jets.
Air Force Spokesperson Yurii Ihnat stated that Russian forces are using high-explosive 500 kilogram bombs that have been modified with wings and elementary guidance systems to enable Russian planes to strike from beyond the range of Ukraine's air defenses.
Ihnat said that heavier, specially-designed bombs are expected to also be used more by Russia in the future, having been already dropped (https://kyivindependent.com/defense-express-russia-uses-new-1-5-ton-gliding-bombs-on-ukraine-for-first-time/) on targets in Ukraine's northern Chernihiv Oblast in March.

⚡️French defense chief speaks (https://kyivindependent.com/french-defense-chief-burkhard-speaks-with-zaluzhniy-promises-continued-support/) with Zaluzhniy, promises continued support.

⚡️General Staff: Russia tries to capture entire Bakhmut (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-general-staff-russia-trying-to-competely-capture-bakhmut/), fierce fighting rages for Marinka.

⚡️Ukraine claims Russia planning early graduations (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-claims-russia-trying-to/) for military schools amid personnel shortage.

⚡️NYT: US understanding of Russian planning (https://kyivindependent.com/nyt/) remains extensive; reveals depth of spy efforts.
Leaked Pentagon documents reveal how deeply Russia’s security and intelligence services have been penetrated by the United States, the New York Times reports, adding that they portray a battered Russian military "that is struggling in its war in Ukraine and a military apparatus that is deeply compromised."

⚡️General Staff: Ukrainian forces repel over 50 Russian attacks (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-5/).

⚡️Russian troops shell (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-shell-kherson-oblast-71-times-over-the-past-24-hours/) Kherson Oblast 71 times over the past 24 hours.

⚡️Washington Post: Leaked war papers show Wagner Group sought to purchase arms from Turkey (https://kyivindependent.com/untitled-11/).
The U.S. has reportedly gained access to the “internal plans” of the infamous Kremlin-backed Wagner Group mercenaries, which showed that the group “has sought to purchase arms from Turkey, a NATO ally,” the Washington Post reported citing the classified war papers recently leaked online.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Armed forces use three times less ammunition than the Russian army, —The Washington Post.
Even with the shortage, the military fires about 7,700 rounds a day, or about one every six seconds.

NATO will conduct the world's most extensive cyber security training in Estonia, — ERR TV company.
According to the source, preparations for the Locked Shields exercise lasted seven months. They will take place on April 18-21 in Tallinn with the participation of more than 3,000 people from 38 countries.

🕯 A year has passed since the Russian occupiers carried out one of the most brutal acts of terrorism against peaceful Ukrainians — the shelling of the Kramatorsk railway station.
On April 8, 2022, at 10:28 a.m., the Russian army launched a missile attack on a platform where thousands of civilians were waiting for evacuation. As a result, 61 people died, and 121 were injured.

Twitter has lifted restrictions on profiles linked to the Russian government: links to them are now reappearing in the recommendations section, search results, and the social network's feed

Instructors of the Marine Corps of the Royal Netherlands Armed Forces conduct training on conducting positional (trench) combat operations, in particular training, capturing and holding a trench, trench, positions during which recruits create a system of trenches, conduct offensive patrols and coordinate intelligence enemy positions as part of basic combined military training in Great Britain.

Ukraine will receive 200 Rosomak wheeled armored personnel carriers from Poland — 100 now and 100 later. This was reported by Zelenskyy.

The Russian occupiers lost 10,000 pieces of equipment in the war, – ORYX
According to ORYX, 2,834 units out of 10,000 units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were trophies.

The US will become the largest supplier of crude oil to the EU by the end of 2022, — Eurostat report.
Russia's share has decreased from 31% to 4% since October 2021.

Germany regularly supplies the Ukrainian military with Zetros trucks, which are used to transport goods and equipment in extreme off-road conditions, — the press service of the German government.
According to the German government, Ukraine has already received more than 60 Zetros trucks, which are usually delivered in batches of eight and are critical to improving military logistics in volatile weather conditions.

The offensive of the Russians fades along the entire front line, — ISW

From the Kyiv Independent

The "hole" in the Russian budget during the year of the war reached 7 trillion rubles (about eighty-seven billion five hundred million dollars), — the report of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.

According to the first quarter's results, revenues decreased by 21% to 5.7 trillion rubles.

Oil and gas tax collections fell by 45% after Gazprom cut off gas to European countries, and Russian oil flows returned to the East at discounts of tens of dollars a barrel.

Non-oil and gas revenues fell by 3.5% annually to 4 trillion rubles. At the same time, budget expenditures increased by 34%, up to 8 trillion rubles, of which about a third fell on "secret articles."

In three months, the budget received a deficit of 2.4 trillion rubles.
And although in March, for the first time since November of last year, state revenues exceeded expenditures, the monthly surplus of 181 billion rubles only slightly reduced the "hole" in the treasury, which at the beginning of the year set a record since the late 1990s.

The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation drew up a budget because Russian oil will cost 70 dollars, and Gazprom will continue to pump gas to Europe in pre-war volumes. The deficit of the treasury is planned at the level of 2.9 trillion rubles, but according to analysts' forecasts, it will amount to at least 5 trillion rubles.

[Worth bearing in mind that these figures may be heavily massaged]

Washington Post Telegram

Here's the latest on Ukraine:

(https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/09/russia-ukraine-war-news/)- Ukraine has laid more than 6,000 antitank mines along its border with Belarus and Russia to fortify its defenses, Lt. Gen. Serhiy Naev said in a statement posted on Telegram by Ukraine’s Defense Ministry.

• Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak asserted that the leaked documents contained largely “fictitious information” and had “nothing to do with Ukraine’s real plans.”

• Hundreds of people attended the funeral in Moscow for Vladlen Tatarsky, the Russian pro-war blogger killed in an explosion at a cafe in the city.

• A top Ukrainian diplomat is set to visit India on Sunday to discuss the Russian invasion, India’s Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

A man was detained on the border with Moldova who was trying to smuggle out the relics of 80 saints and other church goods. The SBU and a unit of the National Police reported the discovery, as these items are likely to be of cultural and historical value.

Russia fired 1200 missiles and drones at Ukrainian energy facilities
More than 250 hit the target, according to NPC Ukrenergo. Almost a billion dollars is needed to restore and protect the grid this year, the company emphasizes.

In May, Volodymyr Zelensky may visit Aachen, Germany, where he is to be awarded the Charlemagne Prize for his contribution to the unification of Europe.

At night, Russians hit Zaporizhzhia's private sector with missiles. One house was destroyed, dozens were damaged. An 11-year-old girl and a man were killed. One woman was hospitalized. Rescuers continue to clear the rubble.

I have decided on my own personal boycott so I will not watch tennis not even Wimbledon and if the IOC allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete I will not watch a minute of the coverage

I had been planning to go to Paris next year so

Same here. People voting with their feet will send a clearer signal to these morally bankrupt and venal sports bodies.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak asserted that the leaked documents contained largely “fictitious information” and had “nothing to do with Ukraine’s real plans.”

I hope the information in the 'leaked' Pentagon documents is indeed fictitious because the WSJ has just published this alarming article. I have copied extracts below as it is behind a paywall.

Damn those Iranian Shahed drones which depleted Ukraine's stock.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-may-run-out-of-air-defenses-by-may-leaked-pentagon-documents-warn-b96b0655

Ukraine May Run Out of Air Defenses by May, Leaked Pentagon Documents Warn

"Kyiv is depleting its last reserves of S-300 missiles, making it possible for Russia to achieve air superiority, according to purported Pentagon presentations

Russia could achieve its long-sought goal of air superiority in Ukrainian skies as early as May because Ukraine is running out of antiaircraft missiles, according to purported Pentagon presentations that have leaked on social media.

The Pentagon and the Justice Department began an investigation last week into document leaks when some purported U.S. Department of Defense presentations were posted by Russian propagandists on Telegram on Thursday. The Wall Street Journal, which viewed these documents and a larger trove that emerged on Friday, hasn’t been able to independently verify their authenticity.

Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said Sunday that the U.S. continued to assess the validity of the documents “that appear to contain sensitive and highly classified material.” She said the U.S. had discussed the matter with allies over the weekend and was weighing the potential national security impact of the breach.
…
Russian bombers and helicopter gunships haven’t ventured beyond the immediate vicinity of Ukraine’s front lines for nearly a year, after Ukraine’s air defenses shot down several aircraft in the initial weeks of the war. As a result, Russia has only been able to strike deep inside Ukraine with expensive cruise missiles and long-range Iranian drones, rather than the much more abundant and more powerful unguided bombs.

Ukraine’s air defense has also made it impossible for Russian aircraft to target moving Ukrainian convoys, troop concentrations and other military targets in the rear, offsetting Moscow’s vast superiority in the number and quality of combat aircraft.

If true, the alarming assessments in the leaked presentations shed new light on the urgency with which Kyiv has been lobbying the U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies to speed up deliveries of Western-made air-defense systems and to provide Ukraine with Western-made jet fighters, such as F-16s, so that it would be able to prevent incursions by Russian bombers.

According to one of the documents, a likely consequence of the looming air defense crisis is that Ukraine will lose its ability to mass ground forces near the front lines, and to conduct a counteroffensive. Kyiv said it is planning to launch a massive offensive to recapture Russian-occupied territories in coming weeks, using several new reserve brigades trained and equipped by the U.S. and NATO partners.

So far, Ukraine has been successful in denying Russia the ability to use its manned aircraft deep inside Ukraine largely because of its network of Soviet-vintage long-range air-defense systems, primarily S-300 and Buk, which can intercept targets at altitudes above 20,000 feet.

However, according to a secret purported Pentagon slide dated Feb. 28, Ukraine will have completely depleted its stock of Buk missiles by April 13, and of S-300 missiles by May 3, at current consumption rates.

By then, according to a map in another purported Pentagon presentation, also from Feb. 28, most of Ukraine’s critical national infrastructure outside the Kyiv region and two other areas in southwestern Ukraine will no longer have air-defense cover. The number of unprotected critical sites will soar from six to more than 40, it said.

Russia has fired several hundred cruise missiles and launched hundreds of Iranian-made Shahed drones since October in an effort to destroy Ukraine’s electricity system and to force a humanitarian crisis during the winter. While that effort has failed, with rolling blackouts no longer occurring and Ukraine even resuming electricity exports to the European Union, the barrages have severely depleted Ukraine’s air-defense ammunition stocks.

While the U.S., Norway, Canada and Germany have provided Ukraine with two Nasams and one Iris-T air-defense batteries in recent months, these systems, too, were on track to run out of ammunition by May, according to the document.

Ukraine’s S-300 batteries were expending roughly 200 missiles a month, while Buk batteries fired about 69 missiles a month, the document said. Nasams and Iris-T expended a combined 64 missiles a month.

After months of Ukrainian requests for help, President Biden in late December authorized the deployment of one Patriot missile battery to Ukraine. Ukraine is scheduled to receive an additional Patriot battery from Germany while France and Italy are providing one comparable SAMP-T system. While Ukrainian crews have already been trained, none of these systems are currently deployed, Col. Ihnat said.

Ukraine also operates portable air defense systems such as Stinger missiles. Valuable in the battlefield, they can’t reach high-flying aircraft or offer much protection to critical infrastructure.

While the Patriots and SAMP-T are more sophisticated than S-300, the three batteries due to arrive in Ukraine won’t be able to replace the breadth of coverage afforded by the 25 currently operating Ukrainian S-300 batteries, the leaked Pentagon presentation said.

The U.S. military’s European command estimates that Ukraine needs 12 Patriot or SAMP-T batteries, and 16 batteries of Nasams or Iris-T class to provide adequate coverage, according to the document. “Multiple mitigating options must be simultaneously pursued to increase decisions for more sustainable solutions,” it said.
.…
Over the medium term, the Pentagon analysis recommended expediting the procurement of Nasams, Patriot, Iris-T and other Western systems, as well as the so-called FrankenSAM project to repurpose air-defense tasks for more widely available missiles and systems that had been designed for other purposes.

Long term, the only proposed solution was to deliver enough Western air-defense systems to cover the whole country, and to digitally integrate them.

Ukraine’s outdated jet fighters are no match for the vastly larger and more modern Russian air force, and have little to no capacity for air-to-air defense against Russian air sorties, which is why Kyiv is clamoring for F-16s. “This kind of aircraft would solve many of our issues in protecting the airspace, and it is available in sufficient numbers to make a difference,” said Col. Ihnat. The MiG-29 jets that Ukraine is on track to receive from Slovakia and Poland, while useful for other missions, wouldn’t be able to withstand air-to-air combat against more modern Russian jet fighters, he said.

While several NATO governments have said that they support giving F-16 jets to Ukraine, especially as they are being replaced with more modern aircraft, the Biden administration so far has stopped short of approving such a transfer. Ukraine “doesn’t need F-16s now,” Mr. Biden said in an ABC News interview in late February, rejecting calls by some Democratic and Republican members of Congress to consider such a transfer."

I'm boycotting tennis too but I never watch it anyway so doesn't make a difference! Thankfully Russia isn't in the ice hockey world championships as i would have been upset to boycott that.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-9-2023

ISW is publishing a special edition campaign assessment today, April 9. This report discusses Russia’s religious repressions throughout occupied Ukraine since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Russian occupation authorities are likely conducting a campaign of systematic religious persecution in occupied Ukraine.

Russian authorities systematically repress religious liberty in Russia as a matter of state policy.

Russia is exporting its state policies of systematic religious persecution to Russian-occupied Ukraine.

Russian occupation officials have been repressing Ukrainian religious communities in proxy republics in eastern Ukraine and in illegally occupied Crimea since 2014.

Moscow’s religious persecution campaign seeks to eradicate the Autocephalous (independent) Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU), which Moscow views as schismatic despite the decision by the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople in 2019 granting the Ukrainian Orthodox Church its independence from the Moscow Patriarchate.

Russian occupation forces have also targeted other denominations that are distinctly culturally Ukrainian.

Russia’s campaign also represses Ukraine's Protestant minority.

Witness reports indicate that Russian soldiers’ conduct towards Protestants in occupied Ukraine is brutal.

Russia’s systematic religious persecution supports a larger Russian campaign of cultural genocide against Ukraine.Russia’s systematic religious persecution supports a larger Russian campaign of cultural genocide against Ukraine.

The Kremlin continues an information operation aimed at falsely portraying Russia as a religiously tolerant state while deliberately repressing religious freedoms in Ukraine.

The Kremlin continues to use long-standing false narratives that the Ukrainian government is oppressing religious liberties as a moral justification for its refusal to negotiate with Ukraine, likely in the hopes of turning international public opinion against Ukraine

The UOC MP is not an independent religious organization but rather an extension of the Russian state and an instrument of Russian hybrid warfare.
Russia will continue to weaponize the UOC MP and religion to incite social tensions in Ukraine and influence battlefield realities.

The Kremlin may call for a ceasefire around Orthodox Easter on April 16 as it did for Orthodox Christmas in January 2023.

Supporters of international religious liberty should support Ukraine’s efforts to liberate its territories

Russian forces will likely intensify this campaign and seek to eradicate religious organizations independent of Kremlin control, as Russian forces have done with Crimea’s Muslim Crimean Tatar population since occupying the peninsula in 2014

Key inflections in ongoing military operations on April 9:

• Russian sources reacted with outrage to Russian authorities charging “Union of Donbas Volunteers” member Yuri Yevich with discrediting Russian forces.[53] Russian sources claimed that Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs officials accused Yevich of delivering a tactical medicine class to Rosgvardia employees that negatively portrayed Russian forces in Ukraine.[54]

• Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin directly criticized the Russian Foreign Ministry’s approach to Russia’s presidency of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and offered his own list of agenda items for the UNSC, likely a demonstrative act aimed at supporting his standing in the Russian ultranationalist community and furthering his oblique efforts to portray himself as a suitable president of Russia at some point in the future.[55]

• Ukrainian Joint Press Center of the Tavriisk Direction Head Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi stated that Russian forces have concentrated 113 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in the Zaporizhia direction and 205 BTGs in the Donetsk direction.[56]

• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.[57] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Serhiy Cherevaty stated that seven engagements occurred in these directions.[58]

• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in and around Bakhmut, and on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.[59] Cherevaty stated that Russian Airborne (VDV) forces have appeared in Bakhmut.[60] Russian forces likely made marginal gains in southern Bakhmut on April 9.[61]

• A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a reconnaissance-in-force operation in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[62]

• Head of the independent Russian human rights organization “Rus Sidyashchaya” (Russia Behind Bars) Olga Romanova claimed on April 8 that convict recruits have begun signing 18-month contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).[63]

• Russian occupation officials are likely continuing to use medical relocation schemes to deport Ukrainian children to Russia. Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik claimed that Russian medical specialists have examined more than 94,000 children in Luhansk Oblast and that occupation officials have sent thousands of children from Luhansk Oblast to Russian federal clinics, the majority of which are likely in Russia.[64]

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Group of authors: Surveys show Ukrainians don't want 'Kalashnikov society' (https://kyivindependent.com/group-of-authors-surveys-show-ukrainians-dont-want-kalashnikov-society/)
“As Ukrainians and their Western allies begin to plan for the country’s postwar reconstruction, an obvious question is whether Ukraine will also develop such a Kalashnikov Culture, with armed civilians and perhaps non-state groups undermining efforts to rebuild public order,“ writes a group of authors in their recent op-ed.

⚡️Russian troops shell (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-shell-kherson-oblast-71-times-over-the-past-24-hours/) Kherson Oblast 71 times over the past 24 hours.

⚡️The Guardian: France denies (https://kyivindependent.com/the-guardian-france-denies-its-soldiers-present-in-ukraine/) its soldiers present in Ukraine.

⚡️ Hungary to strengthen control (https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-to-introduce-tariffs-strengthen-control-over-ukrainian-grain/) over Ukrainian grain imports.
Hungary will introduce new measures to curb grain volumes coming from Ukraine, including tariffs and limits on imports of Ukrainian grain and oilseeds, Minister of Agriculture Istvan Nagy said on April 9.

⚡️General Staff: Ukrainian forces repel (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukrainian-forces-repel-over-40-attacks/) over 40 attacks across front line over April 9.

⚡️Latvia to build (https://kyivindependent.com/latvia-to-build-new-fence/) new 64-kilometer fence on border with Belarus

⚡️Macron on Russia’s war (https://kyivindependent.com/macron-on-russias-war/) against Ukraine: Now is not time for negotiations.
Both France and China see it to be too early for peace talks on Russia’s war against Ukraine as "today, the time is military", French president Emmanuel Macron said (https://www.lesechos.fr/?ref=kyivindependent.com) in an April 9 interview with Les Echos.
“Ukrainians are resisting, and we are helping them,” Macron said, three days after his meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping.

⚡️Official: Kidnapped Ukrainian children punished (https://kyivindependent.com/kidnapped-ukrainian-children/) for refusing to sing Russian national anthem.

Russian troops are demolishing occupied Mariupol's central train station and several surrounding buildings, nearly destroyed during Russia's brutal siege of the city, exiled Advisor to the mayor of Mariupol Petro Andriushchenko said on Telegram on April 7.

⚡️New York Times: Leaked Pentagon documents indicate (https://kyivindependent.com/new-york-times-us-officials-and-leaked-pentagon-documents-show-fear-ukrainian-air-defenses-in-danger/) Ukrainian air defenses in danger
Ukraine’s air defense network is in danger of being overwhelmed unless it is fortified by a large number of additional munitions, according to an analysis of leaked Pentagon documents and U.S. officials who spoke to the New York Times.

⚡️Ukraine’s central bankers (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-central-bankers-in-washington-for-annual-imf-and-world-bank-meetings/) in Washington for annual IMF and World Bank meetings.

⚡️New York Times: Leaked documents reveal (https://kyivindependent.com/new-york-times-leaked-documents-reveal-russia-promises-bonuses-for-destroyed-nato-tanks/) Russia promises bonuses for destroyed NATO tanks.

⚡️CNN: Ukraine alters (https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-ukraine-alters-military-plans-after/) military plans after Pentagon document leak.
Ukraine has changed some of its military plans following a leak of dozens of Pentagon documents, a source close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told CNN.

⚡️Official: Ukraine creating international coalition (https://kyivindependent.com/official-ukraine-creating-international-coalition-to-return-ukrainian-orphans-deported-by-russia/) to return orphans illegally deported by Russia.
The coalition will also aim "to punish those guilty of crimes against Ukrainian children," Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said, as cited by the Reintegration Ministry.

Governor: 24 kidnapped children from Kherson Oblast returned (https://kyivindependent.com/governor-24-deported-children-from-kherson-oblast-returned-to-ukraine/) to Ukraine.
According to the NGO Save Ukraine, which organized the rescue mission, Russian troops had interrogated the children “for 13 hours” during their return and forced them to participate in a propaganda report. [this is happening a lot, apparently; children etc are being forced to say how awful living in Ukraine was]

UNITED24 Media Telegram

An announcement about evacuation was posted in the Belgorod region, — mass media
The report notes that the Russians, having received the evacuation signal, should "inform their relatives, take an emergency suitcase, and go to a safe zone."

The Polish government will suspend the import of grain from Ukraine at least until July
As previously reported, Polish farmers threatened to block the Yagodyn-Dorogusk checkpoint for three days if the issue of selling Ukrainian grain in Poland is not resolved.

Ukraine will start production of equipment for humanitarian demining, —Oleksandr Kamyshyn, Minister of Strategic Industries.

The Russian army is trying to surround Avdiiivka, capture Mariinka, and advance in the direction of Kurakhovo. Still, it has not succeeded in any of the directions, said the United Press Center of the Defense Forces spokesman of the Tavriysky Region, Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi.

The US has investigated very few violations of sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014, and only took a tougher stance after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, – Politico

Türkiye will put into service the world's first aircraft carrier for combat UAVs, — the digital office of President Recep Erdoğan
The TCG Anadolu is a versatile amphibious assault ship that can also act as a light aircraft carrier. On April 10, the ship will join the Turkish armed forces, and President Erdoğan will participate in the ceremony.
The deck of the new ship can accommodate ten helicopters and 11 UAVs, and the hangar capacity is 19 helicopters and 30 UAVs.
Baykar Makina's Bayraktar TB3 and Kızılelma drones, as well as the AH-1W Super Cobra combat helicopter, are currently on board.
The ship was built in a year and launched in May 2019. Preliminary trials were completed in the summer of 2022.

Ukraine has much more night vision capabilities than the Russian Federation, and it should be used, according to the former commander of the US Army in Europe, Mark Hertling.

⚡️Syrsky on the situation in Bakhmut: the Russians switched to "Syrian" scorched earth tactics

In the temporarily occupied Melitopol, the Russians take foreign passports from local collaborators so that they cannot escape, — Center of National Resistance.

Japan will strengthen anti-Russian sanctions, — Secretary General of the Cabinet of Ministers Hirokazu Matsuno.

Germany provided Ukraine with a new package of military aid, – State Defense
▪️ DACHS armored engineering vehicles;
▪️ Zetros trucks, explicitly designed for extreme off-road conditions;
▪️ Mobile antenna systems;
▪️ Drones for reconnaissance missions;
▪️ Ammunition caliber 40 mm.

Is China emboldened by its alliance with Russia re these war games over Taiwan’s airspace?

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Biden decides to run for a second term - NBC News.

Iran has developed a new kamikaze drone called Meraj-532, which is designed to strike stationary targets at a range of up to 450 km. The developer claims that the drone carries a 50 kg warhead.

🇪🇪In Estonia, a man was fined 444 euros for wearing a T-shirt with the inscription USSR

Macron: Europe should reduce its dependence on the United States and avoid getting involved in the confrontation between China and the United States over Taiwan.

Dear subscribers, we would like to remind you that there are four interesting videos available on our YouTube channel

1️⃣ ( with Bohdan Krotevych, call sign Tavr. Deputy commander of the Azov Regiment, who defended Mariupol and survived Russian captivity (

2️⃣ ( with Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, about 2023 (

3️⃣ ( conversation between two Ukrainian philosophers Volodymyr Yermolenko and Vakhtang Kebuladze about the Russian Bestiary. Anatomy of Russian Evil (

4️⃣ ( movie about the first year of the war in Ukraine. Chronology of the main events (

I've been looking for a good analysis of what the leaked documents reveal about the UAF's order of battle for the upcoming offensive. This is the best synthesis I've found.

Quick Explainer: How big an offensive can Ukraine mount?

TL;DR -

The Total
9 Western Equipped Brigades (Regular Army)

• 1 Western MBT Brigade
• 2 Upgraded Soviet Tank Brigades with Western IFVs/APCs
• 6 Mechanized Infantry Brigades

3 Regular Army Brigades

• 2 Tank Brigades
• 1 Mechanized Infantry Brigade (high mechanization)

8 Storm Brigades

• 8 Infantry Brigades

Total: estimated 90,000~100,000 troops in 20 brigades (4 Corps sized units)

Six of the western equipped brigades are reportedly ready now, with three more by the end of April. The regular army brigades are equipped primarily with Russian kits Ukraine had before the invasion or captured since then. The storm brigades are territorial defense forces with additional training and equipment.

The Russians must defend the entire eastern front and the border between Russia and Ukraine. The UAF will concentrate its forces at the points they want to attack to achieve local superiority. I think that they will attack in at least two places to complicate things for the Russians. Some of those Ukrainian brigades will be held back in reserve. I think they'll move as soon after the end of April when the ground is dry enough to allow widespread off-road maneuver.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/10/in-war-there-are-no-emotions-ukraine-drone-squads-bakhmut

Ah yes, breathless doom mongering from The Guardian. Fortunately, the UAF are already producing their own FPV (first person view) drones, similar to the American Switchblade 300 that are already in use.

Why Ukraine's kamikaze racing drones are causing a buzz on and off the battlefield

They can't hover like the DJI drones but are faster and more maneuverable.