ISW Key Takeaways
The Kremlin directly responded to Russian rumors of a second wave of mobilization in an apparent effort to manage growing societal concern and recentralize information about the war with the Russian government and its authorized outlets, but there are several indicators that Russia still intends to conduct a second wave of mobilization.
Igor Girkin, a former Russian militant commander and prominent critical voice in the Russian milblogger information space, returned to Telegram following a nearly two-month stint in Ukraine and used his return to offer a vitriolic first-hand account of the situation on the frontlines. [vitriol and malice are his stock in trade]
Ukrainian forces likely made recent gains in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, and Russian forces conducted limited attacks and defended against Ukrainian counteroffensive actions.
Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made marginal territorial advances near Bakhmut, but Russian forces have not succeeded in their efforts to surround the city.
Russian authorities are very likely conducting an information operation to convince Russians of the security and integrity of the Kerch Strait Bridge following repairs to the bridge span.
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova denied rumors on December 5 that Russia is preparing to withdraw from or transfer control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to another actor.
Russian occupation authorities continued to strengthen security measures in occupied territories.
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Kyiv Independent Telegram
β‘οΈ Intelligence: Russia has enough missiles (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/nyt-russia-continues-missile-production-despite-western-sanctions) left for several new waves of mass strikes on Ukraine.
Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Intelligence Directorate, said that Russia continues to produce new missiles but the number of new weapons is incompatible with how many they use.
β‘οΈHungary blocks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/hungary-blocks-18-billion-euros-of-eu-assistance-for-ukraine) 18 billion euros of EU assistance for Ukraine.
Czech Finance Minister and EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council President (ECOFIN) ZbynΔk Stanjura said that the EU is currently looking for another mechanism to start allocating funds to Ukraine.
Forbes estimates Russia's Dec. 5 missile strikes cost $400-500 million (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/forbes-estimates-russias-dec-5-missile-strikes-cost-400-500-million)
Russia fired more than 70 cruise missiles at targets across Ukraine on Dec. 5 with a total value of $400-500 million, according to Forbes
β‘οΈHealth Ministry recommends (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/health-ministry-recommends-suspending-elective-surgeries-hospitalizations-due-to-blackouts) suspending elective surgeries, hospitalizations due to blackouts.
The move will reduce the load on Ukrainian hospitals and allow them to provide emergency care during possible electricity cut-offs, the Health Ministry said.
β‘οΈPM Shmyhal: Electricity deficit (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/pm-shmyhal-electricity-deficit-in-ukraine-at-19-after-latest-russian-attack) in Ukraine at 19% after latest Russian attack.
β‘οΈUkrainian media expert declines (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainian-media-expert-declines-german-press-freedom-award-over-russian-co-recipient) German press freedom award over Russian co-recipient.
Oksana Romaniuk, the head of the Institute of Mass Information, rejected (www.facebook.com/oksana.romaniuk.33/posts/pfbid0amxr95AdEN3Jcq4tzVJrX9ru9wVeRqPZAYkNTKS9emJ1BN5M7JnfrMs3sjEPvuDpl) the Johann-Philipp-Palm-Award for Freedom of Speech and the Press due to the award also being given to Russian journalist Alexei Venediktov, whom she called βan official Kremlin liberal.β
The former editor-in-chief of Echo of Moscow, Venediktov βmore than once promoted Kremlin propaganda, publicly called Putin his "only boss," boasted of connections with (Russian Foreign Minister) Lavrov, (Kremlin spokesman) Peskov, and other functionaries,β Romaniuk wrote on Facebook. [wow, Germany. Not really very good thinking there]
β‘οΈNational bank: Ukraineβs foreign reserves surpass (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/central-bank-ukraines-foreign-reserves-surpass-pre-war-level) pre-war levels.
Ukraine's foreign currency assets amount to $27.95 billion as of Dec. 1, an increase of 10.7% since November due to the inflow of international aid, lower volumes of currency net sales and moderate payments of the state debt in foreign currency, according to the National Bank. [! wow agian, for a different reason]
β‘οΈGermany blocks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/germany-blocks-polish-offer-to-place-patriot-systems-in-ukraine) Polish offer to place Patriot air defense systems in Ukraine.
Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said on Dec. 6 that he was disappointed by the decision, made after speaking with his German counterpart Christine Lambrecht, as βthe deployment of Patriots in western Ukraine would increase the security of Poles and Ukrainians.β
β‘οΈNorway to allocate (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/norway-to-allocate-14-5-million-euros-to-military-assistance-for-ukraine) 14.5 million euros to military assistance for Ukraine.
β‘οΈState Department: US neither (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/state-department-us-neither-enabling-nor-encouraging-ukraine-to-strike-targets-in-russia) βenablingβ nor βencouragingβ Ukraine to strike targets in Russia.
Departing EU diplomat: Civilian casualties in Ukraine may be 3 times higher than UN estimates (kyivindependent.com/hot-topic/departing-eu-diplomat-civilian-casualties-in-ukraine-may-be-3-times-higher-than-un-estimates)
Departing Swedish diplomat Fredrik Wesslau speaks about the war crimes investigation process from the inside and about the recent EU initiative to establish a special international tribunal for the crime of aggression.
β‘οΈCNN: Defense secretary says US is not preventing Ukraine from developing long-range strike capabilities.
βWe are not working to prevent Ukraine from developing their own capability,β U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Dec. 6. Austin's comment followed Ukraineβs new long-range striking ability, which came into focus on Dec. 5 with attacks on air bases located hundreds of kilometers from the nearest Ukrainian territory, demonstrating the ability to evade Russian air defenses and hit with precision. [reads something like a greenlight to me]
β‘οΈ General Staff: Ukraineβs military repels (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraines-military-repels-russian-attacks-near-10-settlements-in-donbas) Russian attacks near 10 settlements in Donbas.
According to the Ukrainian military, Russian forces are concentrating their main efforts on conducting offensive operations near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
LiveUkraine Telegram
πSwedish retailer H&M, which has been operating in Russia since 2009, confirmed the closure of all Russian stores, - the press service of the retailer.
India benefits through our suffering - Kuleba
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba rebuked India for a sharp increase in the purchase of Russian oil.
Reznikov estimated the remains of Russia's missile arsenal - 13% of Iskanders, 30% of Kalibr and thousands of S-300
EU included Ukraine in Horizon Europe program with funding of β¬13.5 billion
The program provides for the search for advanced technologies for further technological and economic development of the EU, as well as measures to support Ukraine.
The new measures will include ensuring access of Ukrainian scientists to the European research infrastructure, continuation of targeted support for Ukrainian scientists in the field of medicine, as well as climate-neutral reconstruction of several Ukrainian cities using the capabilities of the so-called EU Mission for Climate Neutral and Smart Cities.
The United States did not provide Ukraine with weapons that would allow strikes on Russian territory, and did not encourage Kyiv to take such actions - State Department spokesman Ned Price, commenting on the explosions at Russian air bases.
πΊBroadcasting of the Russian opposition TV channel "Dozhd" will be stopped not only in Latvia, but also in Lithuania. The regulator explained that the license gave the TV channel the right to distribute content in the EU countries, Russia and the United States, but from December 8, the TV channel will not be able to broadcast.
TV channel "Dozhd" came to the meeting of the Latvian National Broadcasting Council without an interpreter and wanted the meeting to be conducted in Russian.
[Dozhd is the supposedly-liberal Russian TV company whose anchorman said how much support they'd sent to the suffering front line Russian troops]
βοΈGerman police are conducting a large-scale special operation against far-right extremists who, according to the Ministry of Justice, were preparing to storm the parliament and a coup d'Γ©tat. 25 out of more than 50 suspects have already been detained. Die Zeit writes that the coup was prepared by representatives of a noble family, a former member of parliament and a former military.
UNITED24 media
The Russian Federation has agreed to sell oil at a discount, said Pakistani Oil Minister Musadik Malik. According to him, Russia will also sell gasoline and diesel fuel at a lower price.
The new package of EU sanctions against Russia will include export controls on dual-use goods worth more than 2.3 billion euros
It is reported by the Financial Times.
In addition, in the package:
β«οΈBan on new investment in mining with exemptions for "certain specific products"
β«οΈProhibition of four propaganda TV channels
β«οΈProhibition on operations with three more Russian banks
β«οΈProhibition on transactions with Russian marketing and research companies
β«οΈIndividual sanctions against 180 people
Russia initiated a meeting of the UN Security Council on the "delivery of Western weapons to Ukraine."
800 units of US military equipment, including tanks, arrived in Poland
U.S. hardware and personnel from the 1st Infantry Division arrive as part of Operation Atlantic Resolve to demonstrate America's contribution to NATO collective security, peace, and stability in the Baltic States and Poland, and to improve readiness, interoperability, and communications among Allied forces.
Ukrainians do not need to issue subpoenas due to a large number of volunteers, β Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky said
βToday we have a large number of volunteers who come to the relevant collection points. Our Armed Forces have the opportunity to select the best of those who wish to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, in principle, now there is no need to call someone at checkpoints by issuing subpoenas,β he said.
Russia is preparing a "response" to the introduction of a cap price on oil by the G7 countries and the EU, β Bloomberg
In particular, the Russian Federation plans to introduce a minimum price for the sale of its oil abroad or establish a discount relative to world standards, which Russian exporters of crude oil will not be able to exceed.
The United States military is looking into the amount of ammunition used by Russia in the war in Ukraine to make sure the Pentagon accurately calculates the amount of weapons it will need in the event of any future conflicts or operations, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said
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Zelenskyy visited a Kharkiv regional hospital. He's been out and about in Donetsk near the front lines too
The parcels of animal eyeballs are still arriving at various Ukrainian embassies.
Washington Post Telegram
Support slipping for indefinite U.S. aid to Ukraine, poll finds (www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/05/american-support-ukraine-poll/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)
A strong majority of Americans continue to support sending arms and economic aid to Ukraine, according to a poll released Monday. But as the conflict drags into winter, Americans are divided over whether Washington should push Ukraine to reach a negotiated peace as soon as possible.
More equipment losses than a couple of weeks ago, could be Bakhmut fighting or something else that's going on that is still under silence.