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Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

992 replies

MagicFox · 03/12/2022 15:42

Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
110
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 06/12/2022 22:36

@strawberriesarenot Yeah tbh when I let my emotions loose I feel the same.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 06/12/2022 23:09

Good news, after Hungary blocked the 18 Billion to Ukraine:

NEXTA
@nexta_tv
Β·
5h
❗️Ukraine will receive EU financial assistance despite Hungary's veto, Brussels assures

Kyiv will be provided with the promised 18 billion euros for 2023, regardless of whether 27 or 26 countries take part in this, the European Commission said.

L1ttledrummergirl · 07/12/2022 00:00

Hancox432 · 06/12/2022 20:41

This is why as much as we don't like it, this war will end at the Negotiating table. NATO will absolutely not get involved unless nukes are used or NATO is attacked. This is likely the reason alot of Western partners are changing their stance on peace talks etc. Yes we all want to see Ukraine win.... Can they actually win? Probably not as nothing stops Russia from bombing them even if their infantry was pushed back to Russia. what they can do it just not lose for a long period of time. How long will they and the west be happy with just not losing the war is anyone's guess.

In my opinion there are a few reasons that Russia won't win:
Ukrainians remove and care for their injured meaning that many will return to fight however they can. Russia has no regard for their soldiers and leave them to die, so they lose those men.

Russian soldiers don't want to be there, the Ukrainians will defend their land with everything they have.

Russia will become increasingly isolated while Ukraine maintains its support.

Russia is barely training its recruits, ukraine is able to utilise the support of other countries to train its recruits.

If Russia insist on continuing with this after they have been pushed back into their borders, attacking Ukraine from afar, then I think it will be more of an Israel, Palestine war. Hopefully there will be changes made in Russia to prevent this though.

blueshoes · 07/12/2022 01:00

This reply has been deleted

Withdrawn at poster's request

@strawberriesarenot did you just say that out loud? Xmas Wink

@Hancox432 not sure I share your pessimism. I have little doubt that Ukraine will win this war. Russia has already lost. The question is only how long more it will take for Ukraine to drive out the Russians.

TheABC · 07/12/2022 04:27

Russia's already lost any chance of getting Kyiv, it has lost Kherson and it's only a matter of time before the rest of the (2022 occupied) oblasts are taken back. The key question for me now is whether it loses all of the gains made in the 2014 land grab or if it keeps some.

In terms of soldiers, Ukraine's losses appear to be less than Russia's, it's getting more training, the land lease program is up and running and it's adapting new tactics and weapons as the war goes on. I don't think they will drive the invaders out by Christmas but the momentum is on their side. It's also worth noting that Ukraine has some very clear goals in mind (e.g. Crimea by 2023) whereas Russia is figuratively and literally stuck in Bakvmat.

Even if Russia comes to the negotiating table, there's going to something in place on the border between Ukraine and Russia to prevent a repeat. Unless the Russian Federation breaks up, one of Putin's successors will want another go. At this stage a frozen conflict (or armed truce like Israel) feels more likely than Ukraine capitulating.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 07/12/2022 07:43

The bravery and suffering of Ukraine will not be for nothing and if you think that you have forgotten just how bad Russia’s aims were.
What they wanted was the destruction of Ukraine as a nation and Ukrainian as a cultural identity. Ukraine fought this off.
And I don’t think it’s a stretch to say this would have been the first of many steps into the countries of the USSR.
A future in which Ukraine is under constant attack or does not regain territory that was taken pre 2022 is not great either I agree, but it is a long way from the complete takeover Putin envisaged.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/12/2022 07:48

well said

lifesabitchandthenyoudie · 07/12/2022 08:31

Thanks everyone, as usual, a grown-up and intelligent debate with lots of good points. I feel much more hopeful now, so thank you!

strawberriesarenot · 07/12/2022 09:32

I apologise for lowering the tone. I was wrong to say what I did.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/12/2022 09:51

ISW Key Takeaways

The Kremlin directly responded to Russian rumors of a second wave of mobilization in an apparent effort to manage growing societal concern and recentralize information about the war with the Russian government and its authorized outlets, but there are several indicators that Russia still intends to conduct a second wave of mobilization.

Igor Girkin, a former Russian militant commander and prominent critical voice in the Russian milblogger information space, returned to Telegram following a nearly two-month stint in Ukraine and used his return to offer a vitriolic first-hand account of the situation on the frontlines. [vitriol and malice are his stock in trade]

Ukrainian forces likely made recent gains in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, and Russian forces conducted limited attacks and defended against Ukrainian counteroffensive actions.

Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made marginal territorial advances near Bakhmut, but Russian forces have not succeeded in their efforts to surround the city.

Russian authorities are very likely conducting an information operation to convince Russians of the security and integrity of the Kerch Strait Bridge following repairs to the bridge span.

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova denied rumors on December 5 that Russia is preparing to withdraw from or transfer control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to another actor.

Russian occupation authorities continued to strengthen security measures in occupied territories.

+++

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚑️ Intelligence: Russia has enough missiles (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/nyt-russia-continues-missile-production-despite-western-sanctions) left for several new waves of mass strikes on Ukraine.
Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Intelligence Directorate, said that Russia continues to produce new missiles but the number of new weapons is incompatible with how many they use.

⚑️Hungary blocks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/hungary-blocks-18-billion-euros-of-eu-assistance-for-ukraine) 18 billion euros of EU assistance for Ukraine.
Czech Finance Minister and EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council President (ECOFIN) ZbynΔ›k Stanjura said that the EU is currently looking for another mechanism to start allocating funds to Ukraine.

Forbes estimates Russia's Dec. 5 missile strikes cost $400-500 million (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/forbes-estimates-russias-dec-5-missile-strikes-cost-400-500-million)
Russia fired more than 70 cruise missiles at targets across Ukraine on Dec. 5 with a total value of $400-500 million, according to Forbes

⚑️Health Ministry recommends (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/health-ministry-recommends-suspending-elective-surgeries-hospitalizations-due-to-blackouts) suspending elective surgeries, hospitalizations due to blackouts.
The move will reduce the load on Ukrainian hospitals and allow them to provide emergency care during possible electricity cut-offs, the Health Ministry said.

⚑️PM Shmyhal: Electricity deficit (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/pm-shmyhal-electricity-deficit-in-ukraine-at-19-after-latest-russian-attack) in Ukraine at 19% after latest Russian attack.

⚑️Ukrainian media expert declines (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainian-media-expert-declines-german-press-freedom-award-over-russian-co-recipient) German press freedom award over Russian co-recipient.
Oksana Romaniuk, the head of the Institute of Mass Information, rejected (www.facebook.com/oksana.romaniuk.33/posts/pfbid0amxr95AdEN3Jcq4tzVJrX9ru9wVeRqPZAYkNTKS9emJ1BN5M7JnfrMs3sjEPvuDpl) the Johann-Philipp-Palm-Award for Freedom of Speech and the Press due to the award also being given to Russian journalist Alexei Venediktov, whom she called β€œan official Kremlin liberal.”
The former editor-in-chief of Echo of Moscow, Venediktov β€œmore than once promoted Kremlin propaganda, publicly called Putin his "only boss," boasted of connections with (Russian Foreign Minister) Lavrov, (Kremlin spokesman) Peskov, and other functionaries,” Romaniuk wrote on Facebook. [wow, Germany. Not really very good thinking there]

⚑️National bank: Ukraine’s foreign reserves surpass (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/central-bank-ukraines-foreign-reserves-surpass-pre-war-level) pre-war levels.
Ukraine's foreign currency assets amount to $27.95 billion as of Dec. 1, an increase of 10.7% since November due to the inflow of international aid, lower volumes of currency net sales and moderate payments of the state debt in foreign currency, according to the National Bank. [! wow agian, for a different reason]

⚑️Germany blocks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/germany-blocks-polish-offer-to-place-patriot-systems-in-ukraine) Polish offer to place Patriot air defense systems in Ukraine.
Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said on Dec. 6 that he was disappointed by the decision, made after speaking with his German counterpart Christine Lambrecht, as β€œthe deployment of Patriots in western Ukraine would increase the security of Poles and Ukrainians.”

⚑️Norway to allocate (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/norway-to-allocate-14-5-million-euros-to-military-assistance-for-ukraine) 14.5 million euros to military assistance for Ukraine.

⚑️State Department: US neither (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/state-department-us-neither-enabling-nor-encouraging-ukraine-to-strike-targets-in-russia) β€˜enabling’ nor β€˜encouraging’ Ukraine to strike targets in Russia.

Departing EU diplomat: Civilian casualties in Ukraine may be 3 times higher than UN estimates (kyivindependent.com/hot-topic/departing-eu-diplomat-civilian-casualties-in-ukraine-may-be-3-times-higher-than-un-estimates)
Departing Swedish diplomat Fredrik Wesslau speaks about the war crimes investigation process from the inside and about the recent EU initiative to establish a special international tribunal for the crime of aggression.

⚑️CNN: Defense secretary says US is not preventing Ukraine from developing long-range strike capabilities.
β€œWe are not working to prevent Ukraine from developing their own capability,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Dec. 6. Austin's comment followed Ukraine’s new long-range striking ability, which came into focus on Dec. 5 with attacks on air bases located hundreds of kilometers from the nearest Ukrainian territory, demonstrating the ability to evade Russian air defenses and hit with precision. [reads something like a greenlight to me]

⚑️ General Staff: Ukraine’s military repels (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraines-military-repels-russian-attacks-near-10-settlements-in-donbas) Russian attacks near 10 settlements in Donbas.

According to the Ukrainian military, Russian forces are concentrating their main efforts on conducting offensive operations near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

LiveUkraine Telegram

πŸ‘šSwedish retailer H&M, which has been operating in Russia since 2009, confirmed the closure of all Russian stores, - the press service of the retailer.

India benefits through our suffering - Kuleba
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba rebuked India for a sharp increase in the purchase of Russian oil.

Reznikov estimated the remains of Russia's missile arsenal - 13% of Iskanders, 30% of Kalibr and thousands of S-300

EU included Ukraine in Horizon Europe program with funding of €13.5 billion
The program provides for the search for advanced technologies for further technological and economic development of the EU, as well as measures to support Ukraine.
The new measures will include ensuring access of Ukrainian scientists to the European research infrastructure, continuation of targeted support for Ukrainian scientists in the field of medicine, as well as climate-neutral reconstruction of several Ukrainian cities using the capabilities of the so-called EU Mission for Climate Neutral and Smart Cities.

The United States did not provide Ukraine with weapons that would allow strikes on Russian territory, and did not encourage Kyiv to take such actions - State Department spokesman Ned Price, commenting on the explosions at Russian air bases.

πŸ“ΊBroadcasting of the Russian opposition TV channel "Dozhd" will be stopped not only in Latvia, but also in Lithuania. The regulator explained that the license gave the TV channel the right to distribute content in the EU countries, Russia and the United States, but from December 8, the TV channel will not be able to broadcast.
TV channel "Dozhd" came to the meeting of the Latvian National Broadcasting Council without an interpreter and wanted the meeting to be conducted in Russian.
[Dozhd is the supposedly-liberal Russian TV company whose anchorman said how much support they'd sent to the suffering front line Russian troops]

❗️German police are conducting a large-scale special operation against far-right extremists who, according to the Ministry of Justice, were preparing to storm the parliament and a coup d'Γ©tat. 25 out of more than 50 suspects have already been detained. Die Zeit writes that the coup was prepared by representatives of a noble family, a former member of parliament and a former military.

UNITED24 media

The Russian Federation has agreed to sell oil at a discount, said Pakistani Oil Minister Musadik Malik. According to him, Russia will also sell gasoline and diesel fuel at a lower price.

The new package of EU sanctions against Russia will include export controls on dual-use goods worth more than 2.3 billion euros
It is reported by the Financial Times.
In addition, in the package:
▫️Ban on new investment in mining with exemptions for "certain specific products"
▫️Prohibition of four propaganda TV channels
▫️Prohibition on operations with three more Russian banks
▫️Prohibition on transactions with Russian marketing and research companies
▫️Individual sanctions against 180 people

Russia initiated a meeting of the UN Security Council on the "delivery of Western weapons to Ukraine."

800 units of US military equipment, including tanks, arrived in Poland
U.S. hardware and personnel from the 1st Infantry Division arrive as part of Operation Atlantic Resolve to demonstrate America's contribution to NATO collective security, peace, and stability in the Baltic States and Poland, and to improve readiness, interoperability, and communications among Allied forces.

Ukrainians do not need to issue subpoenas due to a large number of volunteers, – Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky said
β€œToday we have a large number of volunteers who come to the relevant collection points. Our Armed Forces have the opportunity to select the best of those who wish to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, in principle, now there is no need to call someone at checkpoints by issuing subpoenas,” he said.

Russia is preparing a "response" to the introduction of a cap price on oil by the G7 countries and the EU, – Bloomberg
In particular, the Russian Federation plans to introduce a minimum price for the sale of its oil abroad or establish a discount relative to world standards, which Russian exporters of crude oil will not be able to exceed.

The United States military is looking into the amount of ammunition used by Russia in the war in Ukraine to make sure the Pentagon accurately calculates the amount of weapons it will need in the event of any future conflicts or operations, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said

+++

Zelenskyy visited a Kharkiv regional hospital. He's been out and about in Donetsk near the front lines too

The parcels of animal eyeballs are still arriving at various Ukrainian embassies.

Washington Post Telegram

Support slipping for indefinite U.S. aid to Ukraine, poll finds (www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/05/american-support-ukraine-poll/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)

A strong majority of Americans continue to support sending arms and economic aid to Ukraine, according to a poll released Monday. But as the conflict drags into winter, Americans are divided over whether Washington should push Ukraine to reach a negotiated peace as soon as possible.

More equipment losses than a couple of weeks ago, could be Bakhmut fighting or something else that's going on that is still under silence.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 36
Ukraine Invasion: Part 36
Ukraine Invasion: Part 36
TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 07/12/2022 09:52

strawberriesarenot · 07/12/2022 09:32

I apologise for lowering the tone. I was wrong to say what I did.

You have nothing to apologise for. It’s good to air these thoughts so they can be unpicked or challenged. You won’t be the only person having them.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/12/2022 09:55

Ukrainians do not need to issue subpoenas due to a large number of volunteers, – Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky said. β€œToday we have a large number of volunteers who come to the relevant collection points. Our Armed Forces have the opportunity to select the best of those who wish to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, in principle, now there is no need to call someone at checkpoints by issuing subpoenas,” he said.

This implies that Ukraine is not relying on conscription. Not sure what to believe here - there was talk of it in the early weeks of the war, but also comments that in fact they've had to turn away many unsuitable but eager volunteers. If they do not rely on conscription, or only minimally, that does make a huge difference to morale I imagine. Contrast to the Russians!

^⚑️National bank: Ukraine’s foreign reserves surpass (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/central-bank-ukraines-foreign-reserves-surpass-pre-war-level) pre-war levels.
Ukraine's foreign currency assets amount to $27.95 billion as of Dec. 1, an increase of 10.7% since November due to the inflow of international aid, lower volumes of currency net sales and moderate payments of the state debt in foreign currency, according to the National Bank^

I don't understand the implications of this. Ukraine's economy has nose-dived and there are huge financial problems. Can anyone make sense of this picture, given the above announcement?

Could it be that the money is promised but not arrived, or that it's already earmarked?

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/12/2022 10:31

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 07/12/2022 09:52

You have nothing to apologise for. It’s good to air these thoughts so they can be unpicked or challenged. You won’t be the only person having them.

She definitely isn't! They are going to spill out now and then

Greenshake · 07/12/2022 11:17

strawberriesarenot · 07/12/2022 09:32

I apologise for lowering the tone. I was wrong to say what I did.

It’s not wrong, it’s a valid question.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 07/12/2022 11:49

strawberriesarenot · 07/12/2022 09:32

I apologise for lowering the tone. I was wrong to say what I did.

Not at all, I often feel exactly the same and if that bastard wasn't Willy waving with his nuclear arsenal I'm sure it would have happened by now.

ScrollingLeaves · 07/12/2022 13:13

strawberriesarenot Β· Today 09:32
I apologise for lowering the tone. I was wrong to say what I did.

Not at all. Everyone knew what you meant by saying it, and that it was an expression of frustration at the outrageous unfairness of the way Putin can bomb Ukraine with impunity and will continue to do so ad infinitum. I appreciated your whole post leading up to it too.

Greenshake · 07/12/2022 13:28

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 07/12/2022 11:49

Not at all, I often feel exactly the same and if that bastard wasn't Willy waving with his nuclear arsenal I'm sure it would have happened by now.

I could not agree more.

blueshoes · 07/12/2022 13:41

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 07/12/2022 11:49

Not at all, I often feel exactly the same and if that bastard wasn't Willy waving with his nuclear arsenal I'm sure it would have happened by now.

This. Also for the small but not inconsequential detail that Ukraine is not part of NATO.

@strawberriesarenot Flowers I understand. It makes no sense to me either.

MissConductUS · 07/12/2022 14:58

This might be a bit off topic, but the run off results for the last midterm election are in and Trump's endorsed candidate lost. He also said over the weekend that all laws, including the constitution, should be suspended so that he can be installed as president.

GOP smells blood with wounded Trump

And in further good news for the civilized world, Trump's company was convicted on 17 counts of tax evasion and falsification of business records yesterday.

Former President Donald Trump's company is found guilty of criminal tax fraud

All of this lessens the chance that he could run again for president in 2024 and weakens his isolationist nutters supporters in congress, which is very good news for Ukraine.

Autumnnewname · 07/12/2022 15:04

strawberriesarenot · 07/12/2022 09:32

I apologise for lowering the tone. I was wrong to say what I did.

You absolutely did not. Don't apologise

It's mild compared to what I wish for Wink

notimagain · 07/12/2022 15:37

Opinion/background piece here from a supposedly independent Russian language source on the implications of the Ukrainian Cruise Missile strikes..

meduza.io/en/feature/2022/12/07/hundreds-of-miles-past-the-border

For info more here from wiki on the source...anybody heard of them before?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meduza

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/12/2022 16:44

Yes, they are about the best thought of generally known Russian independent outlets. I have limited the amount I read now, but when I was reading regularly they did some very good articles.

notimagain · 07/12/2022 16:51

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/12/2022 16:44

Yes, they are about the best thought of generally known Russian independent outlets. I have limited the amount I read now, but when I was reading regularly they did some very good articles.

Thanks...I'll keep a look out for them.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/12/2022 17:07

They don't pitch their stuff at a high level but it was good reading their stuff as it gave a different perspective.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 07/12/2022 17:31

More nuclear willy waving from Putin, he saying Russia would only use them if 'a blow is struck at us, we strike back', but doesn't specify if that blow has to be nuclear or conventional in nature.

Putin announced: threat of nuclear war is growing

"Our nuclear forces are in a more advanced state than any other country. But we're not going to brandish nuclear weapons around"

Using nuclear weapons is only possible as defense. πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί won't use it first

twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1600527737021730816?s=61&t=iuYrJkmXKXVZEA9UpLqicA

Ukraine Invasion: Part 36
Ukraine Invasion: Part 36
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