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Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

992 replies

MagicFox · 03/12/2022 15:42

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
110
BoreOfWhabylon · 05/12/2022 23:10

Checking in. Thank you MagicFox and all commentators
Slava Ukraini!

blueshoes · 05/12/2022 23:28

Light relief - Morning Pikachu Dance:

twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1599644738189070337

Booklover3 · 06/12/2022 00:56

Thank you all. I do like to lurk 😆

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 06/12/2022 07:28

blueshoes · 05/12/2022 23:28

Light relief - Morning Pikachu Dance:

twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1599644738189070337

Good way to keep warm.

Natsku · 06/12/2022 08:27

Igotjelly · 05/12/2022 15:13

And Reuters reporting that "Putin" has crossed the Kerch Bridge today and spoken with local workers and government officials in the area. I use "" because I doubt very much it was actually him.

Yeah no way that was him, even if he was well enough to go he wouldn't take the risk.

I was right about the illness going round my house waiting until independence day to hit me, so stuck celebrating in bed.

TheABC · 06/12/2022 10:41

advisor.visualcapitalist.com/europes-energy-crisis-and-the-global-economy/

Dropping this in: whilst consumers are hurting from energy inflation, businesses are cutting back or moving. Judging by the drop in fertilizer production (graph 2), we could end up seeing high food prices for the next few years.

MissConductUS · 06/12/2022 11:45

@Natsku, sorry to hear you're feeling poorly. Might I has where you live that independence day was celebrated recently?

@TheABC, I think a lot of fertilizer production will shift to the US, where natural gas is still quite cheap.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 06/12/2022 12:12

I was right about the illness going round my house waiting until independence day to hit me, so stuck celebrating in bed.

Ouch, hope it's a light dose @Natsku Get better soon.

ISW Key Takeaways

Key inflections in ongoing military operations on December 5:

Russian forces continued to defend their positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line against Ukrainian attacks.[16]

Russian forces continued to make incremental gains around Bakhmut but have not yet surrounded the city, and conducted offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area. Ukrainian sources claimed that small Russian assault groups of 15-20 personnel are attempting to penetrate Ukrainian lines.[17]

Russian occupation officials continued the forceful transfer of Ukrainian children from occupied territories in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts to Russia under the guise that the children require special medical care.[18]

Russian forces shelled more than 20 settlements on the right (west) bank of the Dnipro River and continued to strike Kherson City.[19]

Russian senator Andrey Klishas of the ruling United Russia party proposed the Kremlin restrict the ability of Russians who fled the country to avoid mobilization to secure work upon returning to Russia.[20]

Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Russian military, in concert with the Russian Internal Ministry, is taking steps to launch an electronic database by February 2023 to document the personal details of all servicemen and restrict their movement even when out of uniform.[21]

+++

Washington Post

  • Russia said there are no direct negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv on the issue of a security zone around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, after Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he was nearing an agreement between the two sides to safeguard the facility.

Russia’s airstrikes continued on Monday with a fresh barrage fired at targets across Ukraine hours after reports of the explosions in Russia, which occurred at the Engels-2 strategic bomber base in Saratov and at the Dyagilevo military air base in Ryazan region. [however Zelensky had been warning all week that Ru was preparing new strikes]

The Russian Defense Ministry accused the Ukrainian military of orchestrating the blasts, which killed at least three Russian soldiers and injured four others. Kyiv did not claim responsibility but a senior Ukrainian official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive operation, confirmed that they were carried out by Ukrainian forces.

  • The European Union’s embargo on seaborne Russian crude and the Group of Seven’s oil price cap went into effect Monday, sending oil markets into uncharted territory as the West seeks to hit Russia’s oil revenue without causing price spikes.
  • Moldova, which borders Ukraine and is connected to its grid, also reported power disruptions Monday.
  • Russia appears to be capable of producing guided missiles despite heavy sanctions, weapons analysts say.

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/04/kherson-cross-dnieper-river-ukraine/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram
KHERSON, Ukraine — Dozens of people have called Dmytro Fomin in the past few weeks, he says, pleading with him to take them across the Dnieper River.
Fomin, a 54-year-old motorboat owner and unofficial ferryman, was desperate to help Ukrainians flee the Russian-occupied eastern bank. The major crossings have been destroyed.
Appeals came in from relatives that had been separated for months, elderly parents hoping to return to their families and a woman, nine months pregnant, trying to reach a hospital to deliver her baby: sundered from a city they used to be able to visit without a second’s thought, by a river that has become the front line of a grinding war.

—A ground freeze in eastern Ukraine will soon improve troop mobility, according to a regional governor. Muddy conditions had hindered large vehicles from traversing the area during much of the past week, a Washington-based think tank said.

— Meanwhile, the first shipment from the new “Grain from Ukraine” initiative arrived at an Ethiopian port on Saturday, according to the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Foreign Ministry: 3 more parcels with animal parts sent to Ukrainian diplomats (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/foreign-ministry-3-more-parcels-with-animal-parts-sent-to-ukrainian-diplomats-in-spain) in Spain.

⚡️Power outages reported (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/power-outages-reported-in-several-ukrainian-regions-after-russian-missile-strikes) in several Ukrainian regions after Russian missile strikes.
Blackouts have been recorded in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Sumy oblasts as well as in Kryvyy Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to local officials and utility services. [apparently 9 out of 10 missiles were shot down by Ukr defense]

⚡️Ukrenergo: Ukrainian energy infrastructure hit by Russian missiles (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrenergo-ukrainian-energy-infrastructure-hit-by-russian-missiles).

State grid operator Ukrenergo confirmed that Russia had hit energy infrastructure facilities on Dec. 5, leading to emergency power outages in Ukraine.

⚡️Bloomberg: EU to target (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bloomberg-eu-to-target-russias-drone-sector-in-9th-sanctions-package) Russia’s drone sector in 9th sanctions package.
The European Union plans to impose restrictions on Russia’s drone industry under its new package of sanctions, which is to be approved next week, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 5, citing people familiar with the matter.

⚡️Mayor: Odesa left without water supply after Russia's Dec. 5 strike.
The southern Ukrainian city of Odesa is left without electricity and water supply, Mayor Hennadiy Trukhanov reported on Dec. 5

⚡️Environmental watchdog estimates damage to land resources from Russia's war at over $12 billion.

⚡️US Army plans ‘dramatic’ ammo production increase amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The U.S. Army is seeking a “dramatic” increase in monthly production of 155mm artillery shells over the next three years as donations to Ukraine are “straining allied munitions stockpiles,” Doug Bush, the assistant secretary of the U.S. Army for acquisition, told Defense News, a U.S. media outlet.

⚡️ Canadian company confirms (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/canadian-company-confirms-its-parts-ended-up-in-iranian-drones) its parts ended up in Iranian drones.
President of Canadian company Tallysman Wireless Gyles Panther confirmed that his company’s products were found in the Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones that Russia has been using to attack infrastructure in Ukraine, the Globe and Mail reported.

⚡️ Reuters: Latvia cancels (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-latvia-cancels-license-of-russian-independent-tv-channel-dozhd) license of Russian independent TV channel Dozhd.
The Latvian broadcasting regulator canceled Russian independent TV station Dozhd’s (Rain) license on Dec. 6, reported Reuters, citing Ivars Abolins, the Latvian broadcasting regulator’s chairman.

LIve: Ukraine

Germany has allocated 10 billion euros for the purchase of 35 F-35A Lightning II fighter jets, reflecting Chancellor Olaf Scholz's promise to increase defense spending.
This is evidenced by a government document seen by Bloomberg

Hungary refused to train Ukrainian military
"Some European countries train Ukrainian military. Hungary does not. We said "no". We want to move not to war, but to peace," said State Secretary for Bilateral Cooperation of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry Tamás Menzer. [fucking pissartists. May they develop infected boils in their back passages].

Russian troops massively shelled Kherson region, targeting high-rise buildings and infrastructure facilities

Canada to provide Ukraine with $15 million worth of demining equipment - Sky News.

24 EU countries have offered their participation in a new military mission for Ukraine, - EU diplomat Borrell.
"24 member states have put forward more than 100 proposals for training modules, which are currently being reviewed for their relevance to Ukrainian needs.

Ukraine has released 60 soldiers of the Armed Forces, National Guard and border guards from captivity. Among them are 15 officers, 45 privates and sergeants.

UNITED24 Media

The latest Turkish drone Kizilelma took to the air for the first time
The drone is equipped with a Turkish TF-6000 engine or Ukrainian Ai-322F and Ia-25TLT from Ivchenko-Progress. In the future, drones are planned to be assembled in Ukraine.

Ukrboronprom has completed a series of tests of the Ukrainian strike drone. It can hit a thousand kilometers
"Today, a number of stages of successful testing are behind us. In pursuance of the instructions of the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we are moving to the stage of testing under the influence of electronic warfare," Nataliya Sad, the press secretary of the state concern, said.
“After we successfully test the drone under the influence of electronic warfare, we hope that we will be able to test it in combat use. We promised before the end of this year, we are trying to fulfill this promise,” she said.

US has modified HIMARS multiple rocket launchers transferred to Ukraine so that they cannot be used to launch long-range missiles against Russia, — The Wall Street Journal, citing US officials

Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates have begun negotiations on concluding an agreement on economic partnership, – Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.

In the attacks on the Ukrainian infrastructure, Russia began to use the latest missiles, according to the publication of British weapons researchers from Conflict Armament Research
The dating of the Russian Kh-101 missiles used in the shelling of Kyiv on November 23 indicates that they were made a maximum of two months before the shelling, between July and September 2022 and from October to November this year.

Polish air defense system S-125 Newa SC spotted in service with Ukrainian Armed Forces

FSB demands from the Lefortovo court to arrest in absentia the head of the Ministry of Reintegration of Ukraine Irina Vereshchuk and the first deputy head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Emine Dzhaparov

❤️‍🩹 Kherson doctors saved children from deportation to Russia by inventing diseases for them
Hospital workers forged the children's medical records to give the impression that they were too sick to be taken to the Russian Federation.
“We intentionally wrote false information that the children are sick and cannot be transported,” said Olha Pilyarska, head of the intensive care unit.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 36
Ukraine Invasion: Part 36
Natsku · 06/12/2022 12:15

MissConductUS · 06/12/2022 11:45

@Natsku, sorry to hear you're feeling poorly. Might I has where you live that independence day was celebrated recently?

@TheABC, I think a lot of fertilizer production will shift to the US, where natural gas is still quite cheap.

Finland. Fittingly, celebrating independence from Russia. Feels a lot more special this year.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 06/12/2022 12:34

Oh, of course. doh.

Happy Independence Day!!

lifesabitchandthenyoudie · 06/12/2022 12:51

Thank you for this incredible thread and your continued upkeep of it. @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar your updates in particular, often give me cause to smile a little:

Hungary refused to train Ukrainian military
"Some European countries train Ukrainian military. Hungary does not. We said "no". We want to move not to war, but to peace," said State Secretary for Bilateral Cooperation of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry Tamás Menzer. [fucking pissartists. May they develop infected boils in their back passages].

If this was your curse, please allow me to steal it for my own personal use...

I have a question, something that's bothering me and maybe you can all put my mind at rest. How long can Ukraine manage, not 'antagonising' Ru or bombing the shit out of them, when all Ru has to do is keep bombing them and chucking men(boys) at them? Surely Ukraine will run out of personnel at some point, where do we go from there? I know we are all 'but nuclear' but surely, at some point, NATO will have to get involved if only from that perspective! Or do they finally, then, have to let Ru in and take over... if that, then I can't see how Ukraine can possibly win 😞

countrygirl99 · 06/12/2022 13:11

@Natsku Hyvää Itsenäisyyspäivää!🇫🇮

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 06/12/2022 13:49

If this was your curse, please allow me to steal it for my own personal use...

Naturally =)

About the war, there are 4 main elements to winning / losing, I think (but I am not trained)

  1. ground lost and won.

  2. Ukrainian manpower

  3. political will to keep supporting Ukraine

  4. Internal Russian politics.

  5. in in flux, but Ukraine has done amazingly.

  6. -so far- there have been few murmurs that Ukraine does not have enough soldiers. The problem seems to be training/equipping them at speed. I have heard one very good analyst comment that perhaps Ukraine could be struggling soon for recruits but that was only a hint. So presumably it's going alright so far.

  7. despite a lot of fear in Ukrainian supporters as far as I can see this actually isn't a problem at the moment. Running out of equipment to give may become one but that's a problem for both sides.

  8. Russia is having to balance its own desire for this fight with internal pressures. Gigantic propaganda campaigns have created a lot of support for Putin but the internal strains are growing. The economic forecast is for the Ru economy to contract by 8% this year and next, instead of growing by 4%. That's not small. Hundreds of thousands of skilled workers fled Russia over the months, at the beginning and when mobilization happened. That's also not small. More will flee the next mobilization. Families are losing their sons and never hearing what happened. Over time, that's also going to build up. Diplomatically Russia is far more isolated than ever. The old Soviet countries are showing signs of wanting distance eg Kyrgyzstan. There are wars between the Ru MoD and Wagner/Kadyrov.

The Kremlin is terrified of its own population.

The hope really is that Russia will withdraw. So far there are no signs of that, but the pressures -will- keep building, from outside to inside. So it's not only a matter of what happens on the ground but also the political levels. The defeat of Ukraine -may- happen but there is also a very realistic possibility it will win.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 06/12/2022 13:49

arrrrg Mumsnet did some sort of auto-numbering. It was supposed to stop at 4 :(

Natsku · 06/12/2022 13:56

countrygirl99 · 06/12/2022 13:11

@Natsku Hyvää Itsenäisyyspäivää!🇫🇮

Kiitos :)
And thanks @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Thinking of my great uncles today, who died fighting the Russians. And making some Finnish flag decorated biscuits Grin

Kherson doctors saved children from deportation to Russia by inventing diseases for them Hospital workers forged the children's medical records to give the impression that they were too sick to be taken to the Russian Federation.
“We intentionally wrote false information that the children are sick and cannot be transported,” said Olha Pilyarska, head of the intensive care unit.

What a clever idea, so glad they thought of that and saved those children

MissConductUS · 06/12/2022 14:15

blueshoes · 05/12/2022 23:28

Light relief - Morning Pikachu Dance:

twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1599644738189070337

That has to be the cleanest, neatest, best-fitting field service uniform I have ever seen. It just goes to show how women in the service up the standards. 😀

lifesabitchandthenyoudie · 06/12/2022 14:31

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar thank you, I WILL hold the faith!

Hope all of you are feeling better, who have been/are ill. @Natsku the fight goes on, it seems; horrendous that one nation can wreak so much sadness on our world. I try to feel neutral to 'the Russians' but, surely, we must put an end to it all, some how? Trying to hold tight to the idea that one day we will have evolved enough...

MissConductUS · 06/12/2022 19:39

The Pentagon is in the process of tripling the production of artillery shells, most of which are made in DoD facilities.

Army plans ‘dramatic’ ammo production boost as Ukraine drains stocks

Another Russian airbase was attacked today.

twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1600041823203827712

These airbases should be heavily defended. It's incredible that these Soviet-era drones are penetrating hundreds of KM of Russian territory without being detected and shot down.

notimagain · 06/12/2022 20:22

These airbases should be heavily defended. It's incredible that these Soviet-era drones are penetrating hundreds of KM of Russian territory without being detected and shot down.

Soviet Air Defence didn't actually have great strength in depth across the whole nation and the same might still apply and so be relevant here.

Something (?multiple drones ) blasting through potential engagement areas at high speed (transonic in the case of a Tu-141), on the deck, possibly with ECM and other support may not give the defences a lot of opportunity for an early engagement.

If such a drone can successfully punch through into the hinterland behind the frontier area where air defences won't be as comprehensive or as dense as in the conflict area it's possible it's not going to get caught, especially if it can continue to run at high speed.

As far as the airfields themselves go I'm not sure the Russians/Soviets have ever invested that heavily in short range airfield defence when it comes their Strategic Bomber Bases.....I guess that might change....

Hancox432 · 06/12/2022 20:41

lifesabitchandthenyoudie · 06/12/2022 12:51

Thank you for this incredible thread and your continued upkeep of it. @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar your updates in particular, often give me cause to smile a little:

Hungary refused to train Ukrainian military
"Some European countries train Ukrainian military. Hungary does not. We said "no". We want to move not to war, but to peace," said State Secretary for Bilateral Cooperation of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry Tamás Menzer. [fucking pissartists. May they develop infected boils in their back passages].

If this was your curse, please allow me to steal it for my own personal use...

I have a question, something that's bothering me and maybe you can all put my mind at rest. How long can Ukraine manage, not 'antagonising' Ru or bombing the shit out of them, when all Ru has to do is keep bombing them and chucking men(boys) at them? Surely Ukraine will run out of personnel at some point, where do we go from there? I know we are all 'but nuclear' but surely, at some point, NATO will have to get involved if only from that perspective! Or do they finally, then, have to let Ru in and take over... if that, then I can't see how Ukraine can possibly win 😞

This is why as much as we don't like it, this war will end at the Negotiating table. NATO will absolutely not get involved unless nukes are used or NATO is attacked. This is likely the reason alot of Western partners are changing their stance on peace talks etc. Yes we all want to see Ukraine win.... Can they actually win? Probably not as nothing stops Russia from bombing them even if their infantry was pushed back to Russia. what they can do it just not lose for a long period of time. How long will they and the west be happy with just not losing the war is anyone's guess.

Mb76 · 06/12/2022 20:45

Natsku · 06/12/2022 12:15

Finland. Fittingly, celebrating independence from Russia. Feels a lot more special this year.

Happy Independence Day Finland 🇫🇮

PerkingFaintly · 06/12/2022 20:51

Nice bit of Sibelius on R3 this evening.🇫🇮

MissConductUS · 06/12/2022 21:21

Hancox432 · 06/12/2022 20:41

This is why as much as we don't like it, this war will end at the Negotiating table. NATO will absolutely not get involved unless nukes are used or NATO is attacked. This is likely the reason alot of Western partners are changing their stance on peace talks etc. Yes we all want to see Ukraine win.... Can they actually win? Probably not as nothing stops Russia from bombing them even if their infantry was pushed back to Russia. what they can do it just not lose for a long period of time. How long will they and the west be happy with just not losing the war is anyone's guess.

I think the long-term solution is to get Ukraine into NATO. Then the disparity in resources won't matter.

This would also be very good for NATO, just as adding the nordic countries will be.

strawberriesarenot · 06/12/2022 21:24

This reply has been withdrawn

Withdrawn at poster's request

Greenshake · 06/12/2022 22:20

The Ukrainian bravery, heroism and courage won’t be for nothing. This war has fundamentally changed the global world order. Russia will be a pariah state for a long, long time and Ukraine has cemented itself as a real player and a force for good. People will have a very changed view.