Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

[MagicFox]

Welcome all 🇺🇦

US winter kit is on the way to the UAF. The article correctly points out that this will give Ukraine an operational advantage over the poorly equipped Russians this winter.

Next on Ukraine’s Wish List for War With Russia? Parkas and Winter Boots - U.S. officials don’t expect the fighting to pause this winter as Kyiv seeks to regain lost territory

Oct. 23, 2022 9:00 am ET

WASHINGTON—The U.S. military has provided tens of thousands of pieces of cold-weather gear to the Ukrainian troops battling Russian forces, in the hopes of giving the defenders an advantage in the fight as winter sets in, the Pentagon said Friday.

The donations come in addition to thousands of items from Canada, Bulgaria and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies.

The Pentagon said Friday that the U.S. is sending the Ukrainians approximately 50,000 parkas, 4,700 pairs of pants and 39,000 fleece hats as well as more than 23,000 pairs of boots, 18,000 gloves and 6,000 tents.

In addition to this recent U.S. commitment, eight NATO allies and partners announced new donations of cold-weather gear at the most recent Ukraine Defense Contact Group hosted by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Oct. 12. This includes a sizable Canadian commitment of hats, gloves, boots and parkas valued at about $11 million. Describing its donations to Ukraine as humanitarian aid, Bulgaria will provide 5,000 each of lined half-coats, leggings, long-sleeved shirts, hats and pairs of shoes, the NATO member’s government said last week.

U.S. officials don’t expect the fighting to pause for the winter, as it did in Afghanistan, noting that the Ukrainians are fighting to regain territory lost to the Russian forces. The mud, snow and rain will complicate troop maneuvers.

“Winter definitely will present some challenges to all parties on the battlefield,” Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said Tuesday. “Russia is experiencing some significant logistics and sustainment challenges right now. Those are only going to get harder as the winter months set in, and so time is certainly of the essence when it comes to capitalizing on that from an operational standpoint.”

Once again recommend a listen to Ukraine the Latest from today. Discussing the dirty bomb threats with a nuclear, biological and chemical weapons expert. Sense is that, like all the other false flags in this war so far, the chance of Russia doing it are very slim. Instead the aim of these is to impact psychologically (which they argue by the very fact it’s in the media means it’s working). Lots of discussion about what would actually happen if such a weapon was used (and quite what a dirty bomb is and can be).

Experts view is that Wallace and co were right to get in front of the narrative and to take it seriously and deny it’s a risk, by doing so and remaining United they have taken some of the sting out of the psychological harm it could have caused.

Very sensible and considered discussion.

@Igotjelly I am late to the party here, but how do you find these podcasts? Google?

I just get mine on Spotify, but it’s also released daily on YouTube. This is the latest one: m.youtube.com/watch?v=3Q1BMSgljTk

Ah thank you very much. I still have much to learn with tech!

It's also available on Apple Podcasts

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ukraine-the-latest/id1612424182

Or any app that uses the Apple library. I use one called Overcast that I like better than Apple Podcasts.

Thank you, I have iTunes so even I should be able to manage that!

Naem · Today 18:41
@blueshoes While I don't on balance agree with what is being said here - if you want to understand more deeply the argument as to why Israel should not provide weapons - you could try reading this piece:
www.algemeiner.com/2022/10/24/israel-should-stay-out-of-the-war-in-ukraine/

Naem, thank you, I read that, and understand how Israel would be thinking of Jewish people in Russia, and complications with Iran.

It seemed though to also be against other countries’ continued involvement, and takes the appeasement line I think, which many think won’t work with Russia.

I was wondering if anyone who actually knows could give a fact check on the following statement from the article?

^The accusation that Russia helped steal the 2016 presidential election for former President Donald Trump—a myth that many still believe, despite the collusion charges turning out to be a hoax—helps fuel anger at Moscow.*

Was this a hoax?

No, it was not a hoax. Russia set up thousands of fake social media accounts to influence the election in Trump's favor. What was never proven was active collusion or cooperation between Trump and his campaign and the Russians. They may well have just wanted him to win for their own reasons.

Thank you MissCobduct for clearing up that question.

Sorry, MissConduct (tiny telephone key board).

Well worth a read imho. Thankyou for the link.

Thanks for the new thread!

PMK

No worries, I rather like MissCobduct. 😀

Thanks for the thread.

Thank you for this thread. I’m an ignorant lurker, but it’s kept me sane many a time, and it’s helpful background to my local work for a charity helping displaced Ukrainians

Worrying to see 30 democratic law makers have now sent a letter to Biden asking him to find a diplomatic way to end the war through direct negotiation with Russia As much as we don't want this I do worry this become more common through the winter as other countries struggle with the energy crisis through the winter.

I have said before if this war is going to end at the Negotiating table eventually, diplomacy needs to start while Ukraine are in a strong position and not while they are on the back foot.

However it's quite obvious a complete end to the conflict would not be made and we would be looking at a cease fire. While this would benefit Russia so they can re group it would also give Ukraine time to rest and get a full supply of Western weaponary. Currently they advance then have to wait for resupplies before advancing again.

From Wartranslated.com

Day 243, October 23rd. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin broadcast
Posted on 25 October 2022

Opening remarks
The Donetsk Airport defensive position was held for 242 days from the start of the war until today – 8 months. Today also marks the 8th month of the war. Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts continue to be shelled. Kharkiv city and oblast are also shelled but far less than before.

Svatove frontline situation
Russian high command organized a unified operational grouping of forces around Svatove. Russian counterattacks north and south of Svatove and in Kremina. These counterattacks are unsuccessful and are met with Ukrainian attacks. However, Ukrainians are still advancing toward the P66 road. Mobilized Russian soldiers are being killed in large amounts. However, the mobilized are still making the situation harder for the UAF as they are still reinforcements. If Kremina falls, this causes problems for the whole Russian line.
Donetsk frontline situation: Attempted Russian counterattacks towards Spirne. Ukrainian forces pushed the Russians back up to 2km in the Bakhmut area. Total Russian losses are around 500 dead and wounded every day, or the equivalent of a BTG daily. Small platoon-sized actions around Mar’inka, Avdiivka. Zaporizhzhya saw small frontline actions, mainly a war of drones and artillery.

Kherson situation
Russians are not withdrawing, on the contrary, they are reinforcing their grouping. FSB and other government agencies were withdrawn as a result of Ukrainian shelling. Air defenses have also been strengthened. Terrain is difficult for attackers because of many irrigation canals acting as anti tank ditches on top of lack of cover. Arestovich does not want to give a timeline for the liberation since he says that the fighting is difficult.

Kakhovka hydroelectric dam
Blowing up the dam would not allow the Ukrainians to cross the Dnipro and thus prevent any Ukrainian attack on Crimea from Kherson. this would also be a catastrophe on the scale of Chornobyl in terms of size. This would take years of reconstruction even in peacetime.

Dirty bomb
Arestovich believes this is a continuation of Russian blackmail. They are trying to force the west to force Ukraine to come to the negotiating table before the G20 summit on the 15/16th. They may also threaten an attack on the Kyiv direction by building up troops, but they will not actually attack.

Motorsich
Corruption scandal where a Ukrainian firm sold helicopter engines to Russia. A part was sold before the beginning of the war, and part after. These engines were sent through 3rd countries such as Kazakhstan. The owner of the company is a Russia-lover facing a prison sentence.

UK election
Rishi Sunak is pro-Ukrainian, he said that he will double aid to Ukraine. Britain is unanimous in its support for Ukraine. Arestovich says that Johnson is smart and he isn’t running for prime minister now to not face the consequences of Brexit which he voted for, but he may come back later.
Feigin asks for individual sanctions against various Russian people to be adopted, citing the Yermak McFaul list.

From ChrisO on Twitter:

Untrained mobilised Russian soldiers are being held prisoner in a basement in Luhansk oblast after refusing to go back to the front line. Following a bloody defeat near Lyman, they found that their own side had stolen all their personal equipment. Thread follows.

twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1584835244980854784?s=61&t=CtQ14GlazqXa9Y0kiJHf7A

I have to respectfully disagree with your last paragraph. A ceasefire would benefit Ru far more than Ukraine. Ukraine has the initiative, with Ru on the back foot. That's priceless in combat and a ceasefire would end it. Ru is sending conscripts into battle with no training and rubbish kit. Ukrainian forces are being trained in the UK and then sent into battle with full, modern NATO kit.

A ceasefire would give Ru more time to dig trenches and build defensive lines and fortifications. Militarily, a ceasefire would be a gift to the Russians and a disaster for the Ukrainians.

That is some intense footage.

Your input is most welcome, @MissConductUS. Had no idea about the 101st.

twitter.com/baklitskiy/status/1584646295310176257?s=20&t=zlhTTEhuq9evSn0f5-uZww

Good thread on the 'dirty bomb' issue.

Do the Russians not watch this shit and reflect on the stupidity they're being force fed on a daily basis 🤯

Russian propagandists suggest hitting @elonmusk's satellites with nuclear weapons

They say that in the large nuclear war that will follow, "everyone will die and we will go to heaven".

twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1584838677246533632?s=61&t=CtQ14GlazqXa9Y0kiJHf7A

I struggle to see what advantage would come to Ukraine if they used a dirty bomb in Ukraine, even if they had one or had access to one, which I don't think there is any reason to think that they have. (I don't believe for a solitary instant that either the USA or the UK would provide them with the material to make one, which was the original story from Russia.)

Nuking their own country would be making the thing they are desperately fighting to preserve/recover of less use or value to them, and killing Ukrainian soldiers and civilians at least as much as it killed Russian conscripts.

The Kremlin seems to care very little about expending the lives of Russian (and Ukrainian!) citizens and civilians for dubious gain, but I haven't heard that of Kyiv.

And then what? All the other nations think Ukraine has done something horrible using a weapon they don't have, and decides that Russia is the good guy after all? That seems very far-fetched, somehow.