Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

[MagicFox]

Welcome all 🇺🇦

A few things

Firstly that town that Russia apparently took? Independent verifiers are all laughing at the claim and saying that the town is very much in dispute still and it was a house on the outskirts and most of other pics are still outside the town.

Second, don't underestimate the power of those videos of liberation today. They are the images Russians expected but never got when they invaded.

The interesting thing is those pictures also perhaps show the chaos of the withdrawal. That they have been able to happen and Kherson has had one night and one evening of liberation celebration and joy is quite something. Why haven't the Russians been able to turn around their guns and fire on the city? I'm sure it will happen in the days ahead but not on the day of liberation...

Psychologically how much harm must it do to Russian soliders who occupied and know they were not treated in this way?

The Russian TV pundits are struggling to find any positive spin.

Meanwhile

Dmitri at wartranslated
Some people spoke about Dugin's letter from yesterday, here's the full translation. He states that Russian authorities reached the limit of what they can surrender. He blames Putin directly for the failures and low-key threatens him with death.

Also re the logic of blowing the dam to prevent Ukraine crossing near Kherson. What happens to a lake above a dam? Going into winter the basin would be very muddy, but also liable to freeze. At that point you start to wonder if blowing up the dam would make it harder for Ukraine or easier?

One final thought with regards to talk of peace talks. This is another area of concern. The UK and US view Putin as Hitler - remember the US barely think of WWI as their involvement was limited. Its not really in the psyche of Americans. And the UK has its WWII fantasy image of heroics.

Yet the French and Germans are more cautious and tend to compare him to Kaiser Wilhelm and fear a humiliation is more likely to lead to another Hitler in 20 years time.

On that note be mindful of the Russian Department for Education introducting defence training to the curriculum yesterday.

They possibly have a point. Unfortunately I don't think humiliation is avoidable at this stage, given its already happened...

the French and Germans are more cautious and tend to compare him to Kaiser Wilhelm and fear a humiliation is more likely to lead to another Hitler in 20 years time.

True to some extent, that sentiment is certainly in line with what was coming out of the Elysee up until mid summer. Nowadays however there seems to be less talk of the need for an off ramp and more in the public domain about of what munitions and other assistance are or have been supplied.

FWIW the main rolling news network continues to keep the conflict front and centre daily with some fairly hard hitting reports.

the war is happening now, that horse has already bolted..appeasement is not a good idea.

Sorry for the late response @ScrollingLeaves

i don’t think it’s more Russians living in Donetsk region since 2014, I think it’s less Ukrainians. A lot of people who were pro-Ukraine left Donetsk since 2014, those who stayed were either unable to due to responsibilities such as looking after elderly parents, or were of pension age themselves and couldn’t afford to up and leave and start a new life elsewhere. Mostly it’s the younger generation that left, as well as those with enough money. Of course the third category are those that believed they would be better off under Russian rule.

I hear there’s been another wave of exodus from that part of the country, particularly by those who still held Ukrainian passports, and make their way to Europe since the start of the war.

I don’t have the stats for the population levels in Donetsk right now, but when I left in 2000 it was around 1.1 million in Donetsk city alone. I doubt there’s even half of them still there.

In terms of nationalities, Donetsk as well as Luhansk are relatively young cities (just over 100 years old). Their growth was boosted by discovery of rich national resources at the end of 19th century (coal mainly). In the Soviet era, people from all over the country were encouraged to come and study / work in these regions to help grow and develop. Young people from local villages also gravitated towards the cities where they could have better careers (villages were mostly farm work). Often those who came to study from other republics, would get married and settle there, nationalities mixed.

The whole thing will inevitably collapse inwards, in Russia that is. They will not be the same country in any sense that they were prior to the invasion of Ukraine

The right (western) bank of Dniepr is higher that the left. So if the damn is blown up, it's the Russians that will go under. So they aren't going to do it. There is still going to be some hype about it on social media, of course.

@Muminabun it’s not appeasement, it’s realism. All the big players in this accept that Crimea is going to be a different debate. Additionally, the point was made very eloquently upthread regarding how many more thousands of people need to die before some sort of negotiated settlement occurs?

A negotiated settlement already took place. Russia ignored it. Russia is now unstable and incapable of agreeing to or honouring any agreement. The reality is that it is breaking up and no one knows where the pieces will fall.

And the UK has its WWII fantasy image of heroics
I would say that many British and Empire troops performed serious heroics in WWII. Reducing it to a 'fantasy image' isn't justified. I do think that the national narrative does tend to forget the Indians, Gurkhas etc but that doesn't change the facts of e.g. the Battle of Britain. The US has at least as much of a national image of WWII heroism, which also tends to underplay what anyone else did, perhaps moreso than the Brits who at least acknowledge the role played by the US.

As for the winter, what I have read suggests that the Ukrainians intend to use it as a force multiplier. Quite how I don't know, but possibly because the Russians will be under-equipped and frozen.

Bluntly, how many more thousands do you want to die in the future?

The Eastern European countries KNOW Russia. They say containment. I'm listening to the people who know what the hell they are dealing with.

ISW Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces are completing the liberation of the western (right) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian troops have made major territorial gains throughout Kherson Oblast on November 11 and will continue consolidating control of the western bank in the coming days.

Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian MoD’s statements about the Russian withdrawal to the left bank but generally took a more muted attitude to Ukrainian gains.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations towards Kreminna and Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, and Ukrainian forces targeted Russian logistics in rear Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued ground assaults around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian force concentrations in Zaporizhia Oblast.

Wagner Group financer Yevgeny Prigozhin continued to form parallel military structures in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts, even though there is no threat of a Ukrainian ground invasion into Russian territory.

The Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) subpar conduct of partial mobilization continues to generate social tension.

Ukrainian partisans continued to target Russian occupation authorities.

+++

⚡️ Politico: EU sees Hungary's blockage of 18 billion euros for Ukraine as 'blackmail.'

Today the Kyiv Independent celebrates its first anniversary.
Exactly one year ago our team announced it would be launching a new media outlet. You know the rest :)
We wouldn’t be here without you, our readers and supporters. So thank you once more.

People in Kherson wave Ukrainian flags and shout "Glory to Ukraine!" as they wait for Ukrainian forces to enter the city.

⚡️ Ukraine returns 45 POWs from Russian captivity.
Ukraine has returned over 1,000 civilians and military personnel from Russian captivity since March.

⚡️ National Resistance Center: Abandoned Russian soldiers in Kherson disguise themselves as civilians.
Russian troops wearing civilian clothes have been seen in different districts of Kherson, the National Resistance Center reported on Nov. 11.
These soldiers were left behind; they hide their uniforms and equipment in trash cans but keep their weapons, the report reads. They may try to create a picture that the local population is resisting Ukraine's liberation of Kherson.

⚡️ Peskov says 'Kherson remains Russian' as Ukrainian forces enter city.
Kremlin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Nov. 11 that Russia continues to consider Kherson its territory, despite the withdrawal of its troops from the city, according to Russian state-controlled news agency TASS. (yes, and Biden could consider Moscow as being US territory, doesn't make it true does it?)

⚡️ Official: Ukraine builds wall at border with Belarus.
Ukraine is constructing a concrete fence reinforced with barbed wire, a ditch, and an embankment to fortify its border with Belarus in Volyn Oblast, Deputy Head of the President’s Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko said on Nov. 11.
According to Tymoshenko, the wall already spans three kilometers and construction is also ongoing in Ukraine's Rivne and Zhytomyr oblasts.

⚡️ Germany to send Ukraine additional 1 billion euros for cyber defense, documenting war crimes.
Germany announced on Nov. 11 that it will provide 1 billion euros ($1.03 billion) from its 2023 budget to support Ukraine.
The money will go toward countering Russian cyberattacks, collecting evidence of Russian war crimes, and supporting civil society in the broader region. [a billion! In a number of ways Germany is really stepping up its support now]

⚡️ General Staff: Ukraine’s military hits Russian control point in Enerhodar, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that over 50 Russian troops were killed and over 40 were wounded on Nov. 11 in Enerhodar.

⚡️ Governor: Mykolaiv Oblast almost completely liberated from Russian occupation.
Mykolaiv Oblast Governor Vitalii Kim announced on Nov. 11 that the entirety of Mykolaiv Oblast has been liberated by Ukrainian forces, except for Kinburnska spit.

⚡️ Netherlands to allocate additional 110 million euros to support Ukraine in winter.
The funds will be used to provide housing, repair water pipes and houses, and purchase gas, food, and electricity, Dutch Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Minister Liesje Schreinemacher said on Nov. 11.
Part of the funds will be directed toward repairing Ukraine’s energy network.

⚡️ Scholz: Diplomatic solution currently ‘impossible’ for Russia’s war.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Nov. 11 that, during “this murderous war that we are currently experiencing,” Russian President Vladimir Putin is preventing diplomatic rapprochement with Ukraine.
Scholz added that he opposes a ceasefire on Russia’s terms.

⚡️IAEA: Damage to Ukrainian atomic lab after Russian attack 'worse than expected.'
The International Atomic Energy Agency said on Nov. 11 in a statement that the extent of damage to the Kharkiv Institute of Physics and Technology was “dramatic and shocking, even worse than expected” although radiation levels were normal.

⚡️Energy giant DTEK: Russia completely destroyed energy system in Kherson.
Executive director of Ukraine's largest private power producer DTEK Dmytro Sakharuk said on TV on Nov. 11 that there is no electricity at all in the city of Kherson.
Sakharuk added that it took 30 days to restore power to the parts of Kyiv Oblast occupied by Russia and expects it will take about the same amount of time to restore electricity to Kherson.

Satellite imagery shows significant damage to bridges near Kherson, Nova Kakhovka dam (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/satellite-imagery-shows-significant-damage-to-bridges-near-kherson-nova-kakhovka-dam).

⚡️Air Force: Russia might launch mass missile attack on Ukraine during G20 summit.

The assumption here is that people who are in occupied areas are not being killed by occupiers.

There in lies your moral dilemma especially when you add in elements of who is occupied (the types of civilians who didn't leave) and the issue with broken infrastructure and how likely Russian are to rebuild that.

That means stuff like civilians left to die because of lack of food supplies getting to them, civilians who die from mines not cleared, civilians who die from electricity, running water or heating not being restored, civilians dying because they have no support from family that would normally have, civilians dying from lack of access to healthcare because the doctors all left, were taken or forced to prioritised soliders.

Over a period of just a few years thats going to stack up.

It then starts to come to who is 'worth' liberating and who isn't.

Those in occupied areas will have family and friends who aren't going to just go 'oh let's just sign them over, and we'll never see them again'. Zelensky can not say that.

I think the argument over Crimea and the Donbas is more complex, but certainly everywhere which was Ukraine after 2014 is going to hard to 'write off' so to speak.

Just to be clear, I haven’t suggested that any area is signed over or written off.

You can’t negotiate with terrorists. Russia have proved time and time again that they can’t be trusted. Consolidating Crimea or any other part of Ukraine to Russia just kicks the can down the road for it all to start over again.

It’s not realism at all. Realism accepts that Russia can’t be bought off with deals and ceding Crimea now does not mean they will honour any agreements they make in return.

I am taking quite the battering here, but this IS going to end in some sort of negotiation. That is a widely accepted fact amongst just about everyone involved.

The US has at least as much of a national image of WWII heroism, which also tends to underplay what anyone else did, perhaps moreso than the Brits who at least acknowledge the role played by the US.

Honestly, I find this a bit offensive. As a student of American and military history, I don't find this to be true at all. This impression may have been created because Hollywood produced so many WWII movies that were focused on keeping up the morale of American civilians and naturally tended to focus on the battles American forces were engaged in. We also did the bulk of the fighting in the Pacific theater against Japan, which was a hard slog indeed.

It's true, you are, maybe a bit unfairly!

The negotiation is in the hands of Zelenskyy and his advisors though and they have said that they'll negotiate when pre-Ukraine borders have been restored.

The negotiations also have to be backed up with an extremely big stick because Russia has proven endlessly that its word is good only as long as its in its own interests, and the moment they think there's advantage to breaking it - they will.

ok this has to be one of the most Orwellian lines ever:

Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
·
1h
Title in a Russian newspaper yesterday:

«Successes at the frontlines allow moving the frontline back».

I'm happy about these «successes on the frontlines» and wish them to continue moving in that direction.

twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1591369329110417408

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar thank you. It goes without saying that Zelenskyy should lead the negotiation.

Day 261, November 11th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast.
Posted on 12 November 2022

🔥Kherson
Ukrainian forces are liberating the Kherson region with the right side of the Dnipro River being almost completely secured.
Unlike previously expected, Russian forces withdrew from Kherson now instead of defending the occupied territories for another week. While Russia was able to evacuate equipment and most of the elite forces in previous weeks [under the disguise of the evacuation of civilians], the mobilized transferred to the region and some VDV (paratroopers) forces were supposed to defend the region and inflict damage on Ukrainian forces during the Kherson city street fighting.
The premature Russian retreat from the region may be due to Ukraine destroying the Antonovsky bridge ahead of the Russian schedule. The major explosion on the bridge was either a HIMARS rocket hitting a bridge support column, a truck with explosive material while crossing the bridge, or an explosive load set by Russians to destroy the bridge later. This led to the immediate collapse of part of the bridge & also destroyed the pontoon ferry next to the bridge. Next, Ukrainian forces broke through Russian lines in Kysilhovka and advanced to Chornobaivka & Kherson city suburbs.
Arestovych: “After 34 episodes, the Chornobaivka series has ended.”
This led to further panic among Russian soldiers. Most of the Russian forces were forced to cross the Kahovska dam on foot or on small motorboats, and Ukraine destroyed 4 Russian military convoys.

🔥Kherson operation balance
While the Russian Army was suffering heavy losses in Kherson in the last months, due to the limited number of artillery & HIMARS Ukraine couldn’t completely destroy Russian forces & a significant part of the Russian host fled to the East side of the Dnipro River.
The good news: Ukrainian forces liberated the whole region without heavy fighting or significant personnel losses and captured a significant number of equipment trophies. Russian brigades that retreated from Kherson lost a significant part of their equipment & are demoralized, decreasing their combat preparedness.

🔥Ukraine will not pause the de-occupation of Ukrainian territories
With the de-occupation of the right bank of the Dnipro River, the entrance to the Crimean Peninsula gets within range of HIMARS. Moreover, Ukrainian forces that were liberating Kherson can be transferred to reinforce the Ukrainian counteroffensive elsewhere. We will probably see Ukraine scaling up the counteroffensive operation & not pausing for the Winter months as some were fearing.
“General Hodges was right about the speed of Kherson’s liberation.“

🔥Negotiations & rumoured shady agreements with Russia
The West once again reinforced the collective refusal to negotiate with Putin at the dispense of Ukraine. Ukraine has already declared the conditions to start the negotiations and President Biden stated once again that he doesn’t see the end of this war with even one Russian soldier remaining on Ukrainian territory. Ukraine will keep liberating its territories.

🔥President Biden & Senator Warner on 160miles HIMARS for Ukraine
Reports insist that Senator Warner, a senior member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, remarked that the US supplies Ukraine with 160miles HIMARS rockets which, if confirmed, would once again give a major boost to the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
160miles range HIMARS would be able to strike Russian military air bases in Crimea, all major logistic hubs, warehouses, command centres in occupied territories & Russian supply routes.
Senator Warner also stressed that no one is going to negotiate with Putin & the support for Ukraine will continue. These remarks are very similar to recent Biden’s statement.

🔥When will Russia receive the Iranian missiles?
Diplomatic sources report Iran slowing down weapons supply to Russia. The recent visit of Patrushev to Iran may have been a Russian attempt to restore the weapons supply from Iran. Yet, given a very complicated Iranian geopolitical situation, Iran may have been advised against supplying weapons to Russia or brace for unpleasant consequences otherwise.
Arestovych: “Iran may have received an offer that they cannot refuse.”

🔥Russian command is in the Russian media propaganda trap
Russian love for theatrics & media propaganda compromised Russian military operations once again. With Minister of Defence Shoigu & General Surovikin declaring the retreat from Kherson the Russian troops, which were supposed to hold their position & inflict damage on Ukrainian de-occupational forces, ran from their position and retreated without fighting.
The Russian propaganda machine will try to spin the retreat as a clever plan to reinforce the Donetsk occupation efforts/take Bahmut/etc. instead of reinforcing Crimea’s defence host.
Of course, Russia is trying to construct defensive barriers in the North of Crimea as the military command expects & fears the Ukrainian strike in Melitopol. The Melitopol region is much easier to cross & the counteroffensive in this direction could be much swifter than the Kherson counteroffensive.

🔥The three pillars of Russia
The three pillars of Russia are “Putin, the Russian army and Russia as an idea”. With the series of Russian defeats & failures, the idea of “a strong Russian Army” is destroyed, the idea of Putin as a “strongman” is tarnished & Dugin is calling for “a murder of the Czar”. After another 5 failures, the Russians will start to question the very idea of Russia and discuss the alternatives for the Russian future – that’s when the Russian regime will fall.

🔥G20 summit
Putin will not attend the G20 summit. The US is expected to have a series of discussions with China, determining the speed of Russian defeat.
While China has signalled to the Kremlin their categorical opposition to the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine, the geopolitical rivalry with the West will probably lead China to abstain from joining sanctions against Russia.

🔥The US Government
In the next months, the US may be reviewing and redrawing its international policies and security agreements.
There was no “Red Wave” in the US midterms – Trump, MAGA and isolationists lost, and the GOP will probably nominate DeSantis for the next Presidential elections.
Both centrist Democrats & Republicans agree on many issues, including security issues & support of Ukraine. While the financial aid to Ukraine may be diminished the military aid will probably increase as Ukrainian victory is a matter of international security for the West.

🔥Poland’s Independence Day
Happy Independence Day to Poland!
Ukraine is eternally grateful to Poland for the Polish military, political and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.

Very likely but it doesn’t mean the best outcome will be achieved by negotiating sooner rather than later.

Not sure that I advocated for that either!

Khersonians back in march, and Khersonians now. The difference in welcoming occupiers and liberators 🥰

twitter.com/noelreports/status/1591395389722497026?s=46&t=j0rw7vsggVVciRab5Os5OQ

@DesdamonasHandkerchief and @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar thanks for the round ups. A lot of good news of Ukr military successes. So thrilled for the residents of Kherson - their spontaneous and unbridled jubilation at UAF forces entering their city is just moving.

If these videos ever make it into Russia, I don't see how any Russian can see that they have any moral right to step foot on Ukraine soil. As another poster said, this was the welcome that Russia was supposed to have in February.

US sends160miles HIMARS for Ukraine? Not sure if that is true but if is it, it would be a game changer for Ukraine. Practically nowhere on Russian occupied Ukraine territory will be safe. It will give the Russian forces a taste of the medicine they have been liberally spraying on civilians and infrastructure.