Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

[MagicFox]

Welcome all 🇺🇦

Thanks all, lots to process this morning. Kadyrov as twattish as ever.

Thanks for the thanks.

Lots more on Twitter about mobilised men complaining about being sent to the front with no training and no provisions and this heartening clip:

Extraordinary moment as students at Russia’s oldest university in St Petersburg applaud and cheer a professor who has been fired for taking part in anti-war protests. Denis Skopin spent 10 days in jail and was given a summons to the military recruitment office.

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1585146070421610496?s=46&t=X7OKXacVvYQLe3Q-rUDGaQ

Worth noting that Skopin’s faculty is one of Russia’s most liberal and outspoken - many students at other schools would likely not dare be seen backing a protest.

Russia officially moves to a wartime economy

This means all war-related expenditures are prioritized, while everything related to development - infrastructure, education, health goes into the background.

https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1585188434351919104?s=46&t=X7OKXacVvYQLe3Q-rUDGaQ

Great CNN article on a doctor who escaped to Lithuania from Belarus. Worth a read at coffee break.

CNN Article here

Can I recommend ‘business Ukraine mag’ on Twitter, they only have 80k followers but seem to have a decent stream of quotes and articles that seem quite up to date.

I just wanted to add my thoughts on those that have said the war is unwinable for both sides. In my view Ukraine will undoubtedly ‘win’ and push Russia back to pre 2014 boundaries. I think this will happen before the end of next year. But, Russia is a rogue, terrorist state. They will never give up their aims unless there is a cultural regime change. Therefore even if the Russian people are impoverished and the brain drain is complete etc the Kremlin regime will continue to sabotage and terrorise Ukraine.
there are huge opportunities in Ukraine simply because so much of it has been destroyed, there are many deals to be done and alliances to be made with the rebuilding and Ukraine is essentially now a key member of the nato military and the ‘Eastern European Russia threat military defence group’.
so we have Ukraine anew and a new military power int the world. But this new power will have to deal well into the future with terrorism from Russia.
even if Russia is a pariah country with limited revenue based on a few crumbs from India and China it will still be able to cause ongoing problems for Ukraine. It will always have rich natural resources to raise money for arms and countries willing to support them.There will always be a threat to deal with for Ukraine.
I can see similarities between Ukraine and Israel in that respect. States that are wealthy and innovative with powerful friends but also states that have to be defensive and military fortresses.

@Muminabun

But this new power will have to deal well into the future with terrorism from Russia.

yes will it really ever end?

This is why I think the decision needs to be made by the soldiers, by the people and Russia needs to be weakened for a very long time so they cannot wage war.

Has anyone here recently mentioned that Ukraine is sitting on a large quantity of rare-earth metals, which may well be the real reason for the Kremlin's invasion in the first place?

www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/3280369-maasikas-ukraine-has-deposits-of-21-raw-materials-critical-to-eu.html

The Kremlin didn't want the EU turning to clean energy from a source not within Russia; Russia has a lot of oil and gas their economy was relying on before this shit-shower started.

(I am trying to train myself to say "The Kremlin" rather than Russia when I mean the aggressors who are in charge, so that I keep it clear in my mind who the enemy really is: not the PBI conscripts, the ordinary Russian people, but the war-mongers running the place.)

Reports Ukraine has hit the Antonovsky Bridge repeatedly today after firing 12 missiles at it.

Finland's NATO membership bill does not rule out the deployment of nuclear weapons.

(((Tendar))) AT Tendar
Ukrainian forces are nearing Svatove. The first battles are reported East of Nezhuryne (visual confirmation) and apparently Kovalivka has been liberated. The Russian positions which are getting hammered are less than 5km away from the City perimeter.

See below useful map, which also shows terrain:

RTB, I think this video is from 20th October.
twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1583404163870097410?

So today's shelling will have had a much larger impact.

I think it will end, when Russian empire ends. All empires eventually break apart, I believe this will happen to Russia and much sooner than if they had never invaded Ukraine. Their (eventual and I hope inevitable) defeat in Ukraine will be a catalyst for all the other tiny republics within the RF to bid for their own independence and be free from Russia. I just hope this happens within my lifetime.

Bit of an update on the NASAMS. Two are being installed "imminently", which I take to mean that they are in Ukraine and being configured, and two more have been transferred from the manufacturer to the US DoD for shipment to Ukraine.

Raytheon has transferred two NASAMS systems for Ukraine to the US government

Weather around Svatove is very wet from what I've seen. Thats going to have implications.

The Ukrainians won't be able to attack direct down the ridge. They can use fire over the valley below, but they will still have to get down into it and attack from the north and south.

Interesting comment today from Kyiv Independent:
kyivindependent.com/national/as-russia-digs-in-along-donbas-front-line-no-end-in-sight-for-civilian-suffering

Sergi CJ AT SCristobalJane
"Everyone is watching Svatove now, but I think something will break somewhere else," he said. "(Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii) Zaluzhnyi isn't an idiot."

Quote from a tank commander Cpt 'Kanzler'

Apparently weather in Kherson is 'ok' for the next 10 days but awful in Svatove.

Something to keep in mind.

Russians reporting that the Ukrainians have had very heavy losses around Svatove today too.

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/oct/25/russia-ukraine-war-live-news-ukraine-invites-un-nuclear-inspectors-after-discredited-dirty-bomb-claim

I don't know if anyone has already posted about this. They mentioned it on Times Radio yesterday I think. Nuclear inspectors are going into Ukraine to determine if a 'dirty bomb' is being prepared - of course it's not, but it's good that the Ukrainians are covering themselves against the propaganda.

The removal of (parts of) Potemkin's body from Kherson goes up on the truly odd things shelf.

Simon Sebag Montefiore is one of those discussing it.

twitter.com/simonmontefiore/status/1585314749323317249?s=20&t=G9dpGb07F3GeSFEeFnOqgw

@MMBaranova what do you mean 'parts of' his body. The Russians did not take his whole body? The latter would be macabre in itself. Couldn't tell much from the link.

How can Putin continue to claim it’s a military op if Russia is on a wartime economy? Surely he’d have to move it to a military op economy…

NASAMS look to be operational in Ukraine, according to this.

twitter.com/kharkiv_warnews/status/1585198365997834241

Sorry, I couldn't find an English translation.

More noise around Belarus. Talk of drones targeting Kyiv taking off from there and unconfirmed reports of blasts this evening. Are they now being dragged in?

What a beaut. That is good news.

If Belarus allows drones (or missiles) be launched from their territory, then wouldn't they are a legitimate target by Ukraine in order to defend itself.

Ukraine is given military support on condition they cannot use their US/NATO weapons to strike inside Russian territory. I wonder if the same restriction applies to striking at targets within Belarus with western weapons.

They would be perfectly legitimate targets militarily. Whether to attack them or not is also a political decision.

I think the whole body wasn't there in the first place, so there was only parts to take not the whole thing.