Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

[MagicFox]

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all 🇺🇦

Must be double time tonight

You’re hilarious. Anyone who asks any question at all is a “bot” spying on you.

You can always tell when things aren't going well

Agree @Thereisnolight I thought I would pop back in here and see how it's going. Same old same old - Russian bots shrills blah blah
These warmongers are allowing us to crash our economy, run up an unbelievable debt and now on the news we may have blackouts this winter. Plus we have to send more money and weapons to Ukraine next year. Got to hand it to you great job. How far do we have to go? This is not my war, this is a war between Russia and Ukraine that has been going on for years. Although of course it's been reframed into Russia wanting to take over the world.

I stand in our shops full of Chinese goods and wonder is this the turning point when The West, particularly Europe, destroys itself.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/29/putin-ruble-west-sanctions-russia-europe

www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/6/2/shooting-themselves-in-the-foot-western-sanctions-on-russia

www.spectator.co.uk/article/are-sanctions-making-russia-richer

MN is the last rung on the troll demotion ladder. If they fail here, it's off to the Novichok Testing Battalion for them.

And what a joyous day it was! I remember it well, even though I was only 15.

I also remember being strangely relieved that now I would not have to apply for the USSR passport at 16 (this was a legal requirement) but instead I my first passport would be a Ukrainian one

Just going to move on from what's happened overnight except to say nobody on this thread supports or wants this war. We are horrified by it and we are supporting each other to understand it by collating information and trying to analyse/discount disinformation by sharing it with each other.

To start the morning (and following on from discussion yesterday) here's a thread on nuclear signalling worth reading. I'll copy as it can't be unrolled. From @thelookoutn

1/6
Some thoughts on possible Russian nuclear signaling, and how to isolate what matters from bluster, propaganda and really the bad journalism out there

First: Listen to what the US and NATO says about Russian nuclear posture. As late as today, the US have said still no changes

2/6
I consider testing of new systems such as Poseidon and SARMAT as routine, even if Russian propaganda says something else.

These are long running programs, not yet in operational service, so there will be tests. Such tests does NOT involve live nuclear warheads.

3/6
Examples of what should be treated as nuclear signaling:

Increased SSBN patrols
Mobile ICBM exercises
Larger LRA exercises
Strategic exercises (Grom) involving test firing of ICBMs and SLBMs in operational service.

Russia did conduct Grom just prior to the invasion

4/6
Further up the ladder: Removal of non-strategic nuclear warheads from storage, with the next step in this chain; delivering and uploading them (Iskander units, ships, subs, aircraft etc)

Even if this is done, it doesn't have to mean nuclear use is imminent. Geography matters

5/6
Western statements clearly indicate that the threat is taken seriously, and a lot of resources are involved in monitoring Russian nuclear posture.

The situation is serious, but succumbing to fear isn't helpful. It's exactly what the Russians want to accomplish.

6/6
Western media bears a large responsibility now.

Click-bait, fear-mongering, retransmitting propaganda and sloppy work should be avoided

The way to inform and prepare the public is through calm, open debate based on facts, featuring those who know what they are talking about

Western media bears a large responsibility now.
Click-bait, fear-mongering, retransmitting propaganda and sloppy work should be avoided

^^ This X 1000.......

Apparently they've pretty well won it in Africa. African countries have a lot of experience of Western colonialism and none of Russian.

Just watching the video of the Azov defenders being reunited with their families and it made me burst into tears. Its truly beautiful. The sheer joy on their children's faces is quite honestly one of the most wonderful things I've ever seen.

twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1577006742143393792?s=20&t=C7q5iW0sJrHRLyf1bnTWfQ

@MagicFox

Good post regarding nuclear weapon use.

I agree that fear mongering and overly sensationalized press pieces are counter productive however I think there is room for calm debate about a potential eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used in Ukranian soil. From the pieces I have read the likelihood is still low but not low enough to avoid scrutiny altogether.

I think it would reassure the public to some extent that if nuclear weapons were used it would not necessarily (and most unlikely) lead to world war 3 but the West would need a response which obviously will have been thought of. I think our leaders have been very calm, measured but resolute in the discussion of this issue and statements on nuclear weapons have been justifiably brief and non specific but with enough nuance to underline our resolve.

Personally highlighting any and all means to further support the Ukranian military as well as maximising economic sanction as a response to any use of WMD would be prudent. I think there is a fear of direct NATO/Russia conflict and Russia may try and capitalise on this fear.

At the end of the day I think everyone wants to see the continued momentum of the Ukranian military to eventually lead to an end to the bloodshed in this country. I do think the collapse of the Russian military machine in a humiliating fashion does bring in considerations how this can be done safely from a global geopolitical perspective.

ISW Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces have made substantial gains around Lyman and in northern Kherson Oblast over the last 24 hours. The Russian units defeated on these fronts were previously considered to be among Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.

Russian President Vladimir Putin may use the appointment of Lieutenant-General Roman Berdnikov to the command of the Western Military District to redirect blame for recent or future Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian officials released the director of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, whom they had illegally detained, and are likely continuing to undermine Ukrainian control of the plant.

Ukrainian forces made advances on the Oskil River-Kreminna line towards the Luhansk oblast border.

Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Kherson Oblast.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is introducing punitive measures to target the Russian bureaucratic institutions responsible for the execution of partial mobilization.

Russian officials acknowledged that the Kremlin intends to invade, occupy, and illegally annex additional Ukrainian territory in the south and east and may alter the claimed borders of its occupied territories.

The Russian State Duma approved the Kremlin’s illegal accession treaties on October 3 and laid out the administrative timeline for integrating illegally annexed Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation.

(Yesterday's article on the milbloggers was interesting as it pointed out that for all Putin's increasingly heavy hand on Russia, it's nowhere near the levels of Stalin's gulags and total state control of info. Putin's got info largely under his control, but not to Stalin's degree (perhaps because of t'internet) and not to the same extreme population control).

+++

⚡️ Kremlin spokesman: Russia to consult locals on 'borders' of annexed Kherson, Zaporizhzhia oblasts. [oh aye, consulting with the barrel of a gun pointed at them?]

⚡️ Zelensky: Ukraine liberates Arkhanhelske, Myroliubivka and Shevchenkivka in Kherson Oblast. ⚡️Ukraine liberates Borova village in Kharkiv Oblast and the village of Zolota Balka in Kherson Oblast.

⚡️General Staff: Ukrainian army repels Russian attacks near 5 settlements

⚡️ EU consumes 4 times less Russian gas than before all-out invasion.
Since Russia started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has decreased its consumption of Russian natural gas (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/eu-consumes-4-times-less-russian-gas-than-before-war) from 40% to 9%, even though it has hurt the European economy, Matti Maasikas, the head of the EU delegation to Ukraine, told RBK-Ukraine.

Czechs crowdfund over $1 million to buy a tank for Ukraine.
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/czechs-crowdfund-over-1-million-to-buy-a-tank-for-ukraine)

⚡️Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant head released from Russian captivity.

⚡️Media: Bulgarian President opposes Ukraine's fast-track NATO accession.
However, he added, Bulgaria "reaffirms support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity," as quoted by the BTA news agency.

AP: Russia stole at least $530 million worth of Ukrainian grain.
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ap-russia-stole-at-least-530-million-worth-of-ukrainian-grain)
The AP and PBS used satellite imagery and marine radio transponder data to track three dozen ships making more than 50 voyages carrying grain from Russian-occupied Ukrainian ports to the Middle East.

⚡️Bloomberg: Most valuable US chipmaker ceases Russian operations.
California-based chipmaker Nvidia Corp. had already suspended its shipments to Russia but had maintained a presence there “to support our employees and their families,” the company said in a statement on Oct. 3, Bloomberg reports.

⚡️Reuters: $625 million US military aid package expected to include 4 HIMARS.
The package, which could be announced as soon as Oct. 4, is expected to include four High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers, munitions, mines, and mine-resistant vehicles, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Oct. 3.
The aid is in addition to a $1.1 billion military aid package announced last week that included 18 HIMARS. [but those 18 will be in the future. No info on whether the extra 4 will be now or in the future]

‼️The Russian occupation forces began the forced mobilization of the local population in the occupied Melitopol region. This was announced by the mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov.

Kazakh Foreign Ministry spokesman Aibek Smadiyarov said that the participation of the CSTO in the zone of Russian-Ukrainian hostilities was out of the question, local media reported. In particular, Kazakhstan, according to the UN Charter, will not participate in the war unleashed by Russia

🔎 The occupiers left a lot of mines and stretch marks at the exit from Lyman [Presumably 'stretch marks' means something military!]

🔗 France intends to hand over 20 Bastion armored vehicles to Ukraine. It is a 12.5-ton vehicle capable of carrying up to ten soldiers...A model being preparing for Ukraine is equipped with a turret with the ability to install a 12.7 mm machine gun.

‼️ The Russians hit a medical facility in the Kupiansk district of the Kharkiv region
An anesthesiologist was killed, and a nurse was wounded,

Ukraine offers the Administration of U.S. President Joe Biden to agree on potential targets in case of transferring ATACMS missiles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. CNN, citing U.S. officials, reported this

❗️ The Russian military again kidnapped Olena Naumova, a Tik-Tok blogger from Kherson

🔎 "Gazprom" allowed Hungary to postpone gas payments — Bloomberg

[High tank losses yesterday]

In all these "Putin will use nukes" scenarios everyone seems to forget that there's also a real possibility of someone just taking Putin out before he gets to that stage. My DH thinks it'll be as early as next week. We'll just wake up to news that Putin is dead.

To be fair (not the right word ) on African countries, many of them turned first to the West for support or help to throw over the yoke of colonialism/recover from the effects of colonialism/stop apartheid (Thatcher was vehemently opposed to both the economics' and sports' boycotts of South Africa) or just humanitarian support.

It was only after the West wouldn't support them or put too many conditions on them that they turned to Russia and, latterly, China (with its Belt & Road Initiative).

So they have reasons to be distrustful

agreed, Prettybird

Plus some awful history. I honestly think Russian imperialism is worse (Stalin and the pogroms and relocations) but the West was bad enough. What went on in the Belgian Congo was appalling, and I'm sure in other places

I don't for one second think it takes away from the horror that Russia has imposed on Ukraine however I think we (the West) greatly underestimate the harm that we've caused many other nations throughout the years. We have the blood of murdered children all over our hands and a sordid history of colonisation.

As I said though that's an aside, at this moment in time its Russia, and Putin, causing immeasurable harm and we're right to stand up to it.

In other news @OwlsDance I think Putin is like some sort of cockroach, he's impossible to kill.

They would indeed have to be pretty desperate to come on here, I agree.

The thoughts are that he would only result to using nuclear if his leadership was at stake. However if his leadership was potentially compromised there is a high chance that the orders of a nuclear strike may not be followed. Someone said up thread that if he had the backing of his gwnerals for a nuclear strike then he isn't in position at the moment where he needs to use them.

Personally I do believe if a military coup was to happen it may be at the point Putin orders a nuclear strike. The US will have made it very clear that there will be a NATO response to anyone of nuclear weapons. The benefit that Russia would gain would be far less than say the loss of the whole prized black sea fleet of Russias.

We all want Russia the leave the whole of the occupied areas. The west was quite clear to Zelenskey that they should only attend peace talks from a position of strength. Rather than before when they were on the back foot. While I think I full on peace agreement is unlikely right now. It may be wise to agree a temporary ceasefire (a year or so) to avoid this escalating out of the current battle zone.

I can't imagine the pressure etc the Zelenskey etc are under right now. However the slander to anyone that even suggest some form of peace talks for me is a bit unfair. Musk is partially responsible right now for the Ukrainians even having alot of Internet with his donations early on. But for zelenskey to basically assuming he is pro Russian because of peace talks he suggested was a bit much. The Pope isn't being called pro Russian and he's been advocating for peace talks too recently.

A woman at my work was having a debate about peace talks with someone who quite aggressively said we can't give in to Russain demands etc, which I do get. She then proceeded to have a full on breakdown about how her first child was born in December 2019 and they have had nothing but shit to put up with from, covid to the war to potential nuclear warfare, to the cost of living crisis. How she felt like an awful person bringing a child into the current world we live in. It was horrible to watch. Just think its important not to just jump on advocates for peace talks as pro Russian. Some and probably most just want there pre 2020 lives back now are a complete shit show of the last 3 years.

I pray for this every night and I'm not even religious.

That said, I do enjoy reading the threads (apart from the ridiculous paranoia).

Thanks for the new thread

I do understand why many people (even myself to a degree) would want to entertain peace talks now Ukraine is on a stronger footing. It has been a brutal, relentless, bloody seven months for Ukraine and the war's global impact has been horrendous on the environment, economy and morale. I think the very valid concern is about not losing momentum. Keeping Russia on the backfoot, pushing them back to legal borders without the opportunity to regroup or replenish is essential for victory. Russia is a very determined aggressor and there is only one way to fight fire. With fire.

Ceasefire is only beneficial for Russia though. They'll have time to train up all those hundreds of thousands of conscripts. At the moment Ukraine has an advantage, so they have to press on. I get that people want peace, we all do, more than anything, but peace will be very shortlived if there's ceasefire or peace agreement without driving all of Russian army out.

A lot of people think that if we give Putin what he wants, he'll stop. And maybe he will, but what he wants is all of Ukraine. Not just Crimea or Kherson or Odessa, all of it.

A nuclear threat will always be there. How many times it's been talked about over the last 7 months? And yet we're still here.

Oh I think your right to keep pushing with momentum. However in the coming 2 mo the fighting will become much slower and will likely turn into a drone war for the winter as the terrain and bitter cold hampers both sides attacks (although Ukraine likely will fair better). The war will ebb and flow as it goes on. There will be times ahead where Ukraine has to dig in and defend its gains. I can see a stale mate over winter the most likely time for a tactical nuke as the lines will be more defined as trenches are dug to hold lines.

I'm not so sure the trolls won't come here.

Russia has a (slightly bizarre) paranoia about the UK. Mumsnet is one of the bigger sites, even if forums generally are on the decline apparently. This thread is full of good information and good discussion. Russian social-media wars are very well known as a thing, they call it Hybrid Warfare.

There are consistent themes that the shills push and they are easily recognised after the first few times, and consistent ways they present themselves. We've seen them quite a few times.

So yes, sad as it is - there really are shills who come and post.