Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

[MagicFox]

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

They are not thinking that logically. Perhaps it's a human failing but it's a rare individual that really embraces their inner evil bastard. We like to see ourselves as heros or at least justified in the misery we cause. Hence the success of the Russian brat movies and the claim of "cleansing violence."

If Russians accept their army has targeted shopping centres, it means they have to question a lot more about their worldview - some of which could be dangerous politically. They can't afford not to believe the lie.

ISW Key Takeaways:

Russian forces struck a shopping mall in Kremenchuk as part of a recent escalation in strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and cities.

Russian forces made incremental advances southwest of Lysychansk near the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway but have not entirely severed Ukrainian lines of communication into Bakhmut.

Russian forces made measured advances during offensive operations to the east of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian forces repelled Russian offensives north of Slovyansk.

Russian forces made limited and localized attacks along contested frontlines around Kharkiv City but did not make any advances on June 27.

Ukrainian counteroffensives along the Southern Axis continue to force Russian troops to prioritize defensive operations along the line of contact.

Russian occupation authorities are taking steps to strengthen economic control of occupied territories and force Ukrainian civilians to switch to the ruble.

+++

Kyiv Independent

⚡️Agriculture Ministry: Russia has stolen at least 400,000 tons of grain since Feb. 24.

⚡️Turkey announces establishment of operational center in Istanbul to export grain from Ukraine.
Turkish Presidential Communications Director Fahrettin Altun told Italian newspaper Il Messaggero that "as a result of our negotiations, a consensus was achieved" to establish the center, and Istanbul hopes that ships loaded with Ukrainian grain will depart "as soon as possible."
Russia is blocking from export 20 million tons of grain in the Ukrainian ports.

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine's military inflicts heavy losses on Russian forces near Bakhmut.
Russian troops withdrew after an unsuccessful assault near the village of Pavlivka, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported. Russian forces are also trying to block Lysychansk from the south with the help of heavy artillery, the report said.

⚡️Media: Ukraine purchases 2,900 anti-tank missile systems from German company.
Germany's Welt am Sonntag newspaper, citing unnamed Ukrainian sources, reported that Ukraine received in two batches the RGW 90 Matador complexes with an effective range of up to 500 meters it purchased from the German defense company Dynamit Nobel.

⚡️Official: According to Enerhodar Mayor Dmytro Orlov, Russian occupying forces are demanding a ransom of $1,700 for the release of the hostages.
Hundreds of citizens are currently being held captive, including skilled workers from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, and some have been beaten or electrocuted, Orlov said in a Telegram post on June 26.

⚡️Russian officials say Ukraine again strikes drilling rigs Russia seized in Black Sea.
[There are stories that the rigs are being used as bases and shelters for the military]

⚡️ Russian media: Putin to make first trip abroad since start of Russia’s full-scale war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Tajikistan and Turkmenistan this week, reports Reuters, citing Russian state-controlled television Rossiya 1.
Putin will also reportedly visit Grodno, Belarus, on June 30 and July 1 to participate in a forum with Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.

⚡️ Institute for the Study of War: Missile strike on Kyiv likely ‘direct response’ to meeting of G7 leaders.

The Kyiv Independent, [27/06/2022 05:42]
⚡️ CNN: US to announce purchase of surface-to-air missile defense system for Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden plans to announce the purchase of an advanced, surface-to-air missile defense system for Ukraine as early as this week, reports CNN, citing a source familiar with the announcement. The missile defense system, or NASAMS system, can strike targets over 100 miles (170 km) away, according to the source.

⚡️General Staff: Russian troops push to block off Lysychansk from south.

⚡️Akhmetov files lawsuit against Russia. Ukraine's richest oligarch Rinat Akhmetov said on June 27 that he filed a lawsuit at the European Court of Human Rights against Russia for gross violations of his property rights. Akhmetov is asking for "billions of dollars" to compensate for the blockade, looting, destruction, and theft of his grain and metal from Ukraine to Rus

⚡️Moldova's President Sandu pays visit to Kyiv.

⚡️Around 7,000-8,000 civilians left in Russian-occupied Sievierodonetsk.

⚡️ EU provides Ukraine with equipment to protect against chemical, nuclear threats.
The equipment provided by the EU includes 300,000 specialized protective suits, 5,600 liters of decontaminants, and 850 units of equipment for decontamination operations, with a total cost of $12 million.
This aid will be delivered to Ukraine from EU emergency stocks stored in Romania, Hungary, Sweden, Germany, Greece, and Denmark.

⚡️ NATO to enhance battlegroups on eastern flank due to Russian threat.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced during a press conference, that NATO will expand its battlegroups on the eastern flank up to brigades, due to the threat of Russia. “At the Summit, we will strengthen our forward defenses.
We will transform the NATO Response Force, and increase the number of our high readiness forces to well over 300,000. We will also boost our ability to reinforce in crisis and conflict," Stoltenberg said.

⚡️ Russian hackers attack Lithuania for the country's restriction on transit to Kaliningrad.

⚡️Intelligence: More missiles will be launched from Belarus in future..

[lot of stuff today, more or less posting in order from Telegram, bit busy today sorry!]

⚡️Bayraktar says it will donate drones Ukrainians wanted to buy after crowdfunding.

After Serhiy Prytula, a Ukrainian comedian, politician, and volunteer, organized crowdfunding where he raised over $20 million in three days to buy Bayraktar drones for Ukraine's army, the manufacturer refused to take the money, offering three drones instead for free.

"We ask that raised funds be remitted instead to the struggling people of Ukraine. We are touched by their solidarity and resolve in the face of seemingly insurmountable challenges," the company's statement reads.

UPDATE: Russian missile strike on Kremenchuk shopping mall kills at least 18, injures 40 (kyivindependent.com/national/russian-missile-strike-on-kremenchuk-shopping-mall-kills-at-least-two-people-injures-20-others)

The Kyiv Independent, [27/06/2022 21:42]
⚡️Governor: Russian missile fired at Lysychansk civilians collecting water kills at least 8, wounds more than 20.

⚡️Forbes: Russian missiles launched over weekend in Ukraine worth up to $220 million.

⚡️BBC: British defense secretary calls to raise UK military spending to 2.5% of GDP.

⚡️General Staff: Russia trying to advance towards Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast.

🖇 Ukraine will receive Norwegian NASAMS air defense systems from the United States, CNN reports
NASAMS is a Norwegian mobile anti-aircraft missile system designed to combat maneuvering aerodynamic targets at low and medium altitudes, a short and medium-range air defense system.

⚡️ The White House announced the introduction of G7 sanctions for the illegal export of grain from Ukraine

❌ The invaders storm Lysychansk, destroying the city with "all possible types of weapons"

📌 Iran has applied to join the BRICS, Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said. Earlier, Argentine President Alberto Fernández announced his desire to join the union of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

Ukraine NOW [English], [28/06/2022 07:35]
[ Photo ]
⚡️ The UN Security Council will hold a meeting on Ukraine today on Tuesday, June 28
The topic of the meeting was "Maintaining Peace and Security in Ukraine." [well yeah, we can expect not much from that then]

🛑 Russia, after a fall in gas production by 25% and exports by 43%, classified any statistics on gas production and export

🔎 Russian diplomats and spies deported from European countries stop in Switzerland. The confederation has become the center of Russian espionage, writes the Financial Times, citing a report by the Swiss Intelligence Service

**

that's all for now, sure i missed some important ones!

"How Can We Avoid Further Escalation of the International Conflict Caused by Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?"

www.carnegie.org/our-work/article/how-can-we-avoid-further-escalation-of-the-international-conflict-caused-by-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/

Lots of good stuff coming from the @RUSI_org Land Warfare Conference today a few things following:

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1541709761669890050.html

Just re earlier comments to @katem98 from jelly et al

Full speech from Sanders here: www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2022/06/rusi-land-warfare-conference-cgs-speech/

Just read full speech and it's scarily strong

Frank Gardner AT frankrgardner
Head of British Army’s speech today essentially trashes NATO’s ‘tripwire’ approach to defending the Baltic states with a tiny force. “We must stop Russia seizing territory rather than.. responding to a land grab with a delayed counter offensive”.

That sounds perfectly reasonable.

Will this position be matched by other EU forces?

That's fine in theory, no argument with that.

Question though is by how much is it feasible to bolster the Baltic States from a equipment/manpower POV whilst not depleting NATO assets on the other NATO borders that interface with Russia.

All takes us back to defence spending.

Excellent article (needs google translate): www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2022/06/27/poetins-invasie-is-het-begin-van-een-nieuwe-koude-oorlog-2-a4134812

I think the entire speech is a two pronged approach between Wallace and the Head of the Army on that number one subject: defence spending.

I think we will hear a lot more about that in the next six weeks. Wallace is very aware that he is being asked to do more and more on less and less budget.

If its Johnson's key policy now, to protect him from the Tory Party then now is the time to make a big push for money.

Two key responses that stood about from the article I just linked to:

Plenty of potential for collisions, it sounds like. Aren't you afraid there will be a third world war instead of a cold war?
"No. China, the US and Russia do not want a confrontation with each other now. What we see is a bipolar world with cutthroat rivalry. But no confrontation. Unlike Russia, China and the US do not even want to get rid of the old, multilateral world order. Russia is the only one ready for a new order. That has raw power politics and geopolitics in the genes. It is sometimes said that Russians have only two friends: the army and the navy. Putin is in the same tradition as Ivan the Terrible, Catherine the Great and Peter the Great. Conquerors, all of them.”
Where is Europe in your story?
“Europe should be very concerned. I see a lot of outrage about Ukraine, but the geopolitical implications are not given enough thought, except in a country like Poland, where they think: we are next.
“Europe is mentally too stuck in the post-Cold War phase, after the fall of the Wall. We were global players . We were fine. But that appears to be a transitional phase. She ends up in Ukraine. That is the message of this war. That has not yet penetrated well in Europe. NATO is back. We feel safe again. But what if, in two years' time, a Republican becomes president of America who doesn't feel like defending Europe? That's a pretty realistic scenario. We need to pull much harder on genuine European defense and security. Europe is not ready for the new world order. Nobody is ready for that. Only Russia.”

Awful formatting, sorry. But one key thing we need to pray for: that the Democrats win in the US elections because without US support NATO is not as strong as it needs to be

Good speech.

I meant to quote the full speech that MagicFox linked to:

General Sir Patrick Sanders, UK Chief of the General Staff, opens the RUSI Land Warfare Conference:

www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2022/06/rusi-land-warfare-conference-cgs-speech/

Defence spending will need to go up. As posters have pointed out elsewhere, it takes time to build up weapons, train soldiers, etc. That's part of the reason why we are seeing these remarks now from our armed forces and Defence Secretary.

Regarding the spread of troops/equipment, it's always going to be a balancing act. However...the same is also true for Russia. Once Finland joins, the only 'friendly' western border they have left is with Belarus (and Iran, if you are looking to the south).

I still can't get over how bloody big Russia is, compared to China and India (where half of humanity lives).

Thank you @MagicFox for that link to Sander's speech.
He sounds like an architect, looking at a 1930's house and going 'this needs to be modernised" It's frustrating to realise that we still don't have standardised ammo across NATO, despite all the fuss on commercial standardisation for things like smartphone plugs.

Key stat from the Land Warfare Conference:
#Ukraine has lost more troops, killed and wounded than there is infantry in the British Army.

@MagicFox · Today 11:21
"How Can We Avoid Further Escalation of the International Conflict Caused by Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?"

www.carnegie.org/our-work/article/how-can-we-avoid-further-escalation-of-the-international-conflict-caused-by-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/

The third opinion from Paolo Cotta-Ramusino, annoyed me by his apparent implication that Ukrainians speaking Russian are effectively Russians. I think that language is a sensitive subject but, from what I have read, plenty of Russian speaking Ukrainians feel they are Ukrainian.
No wonder speaking Russian now feels like an invitation to invasion. Imagine if the Irish felt the English they speak meant England should rule them.

He also says that Crimea is de facto Russian, and he thinks it just needs to be left that way. I think all of Ukraine could end up being de facto Russian. De facto simply means by force.

@Ijsbear · Today 09:42
that's all for now, sure i missed some important ones!

Thank you very much. It is a great help to have your key news.

@MagicFox Thank you for all your links. I’ll try to keep up.

@blueshoes eshoes · Today 13:41
I meant to quote the full speech that MagicFox linked to:

General Sir Patrick Sanders, UK Chief of the General Staff, opens the RUSI Land Warfare Conference:

//www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2022/06/rusi-land-warfare-conference-cgs-speech/

Thank you Blueshoes. I think this paragraph is one of the best summations we have had:
The scale of the war in Ukraine is unprecedented. 103 Battalion Tactical Groups committed. Up to 33,000 Russians dead, wounded, missing or captured. A casualty rate of up to 200 per day amongst the Ukrainian defenders. 77,000 square kilometres of territory seized – 43% of the total landmass of the Baltic states. Ammunition expenditure rates that would exhaust the combined stockpiles of several NATO countries in a matter of days. The deliberate targeting of civilians with 4,700 civilian dead. 8 million refugees. For us, the visceral nature of a European land war is not just some manifestation of distant storm clouds on the horizon; we can see it now.

Good Rachman piece: "Ukraine and the start of a second cold war
The US once again sees itself as engaged in a global struggle with Russia and China"

www.ft.com/content/34481fbd-4ca7-4bb3-bef5-e68fefed7438