Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

[MagicFox]

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

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Transcript of Ben Wallace's RUSI speech today: www.gov.uk/government/speeches/defence-secretary-speech-at-rusi-land-warfare-conference-2022

Another good speech!

Yes, but so depressing to hear the peace dividend is over and overwhelming to imagine the landscape we will experience over the next couple of decades. I can't get my head around it, I hate the uncertainty!

I guess it's that idea that robust defence is a deterrence and remembering that that's the purpose (so prepping for war whilst hopefully not prepping for war?) God, I hope Trump doesn't get re-elected

God, I hope Trump doesn't get re-elected

Welcome to my worst nightmare.

However, one thing to bear in mind about Trump is that he has no fixed principles or goals. His animus at NATO was because most members were quite deliberately spending below the 2% of GDP floor on defense, assuming that in a pinch the Americans, with our very large and robust military, would arrive in time to save their arses. He had a point. There was a set of NATO exercises when German soldiers had to participate carrying broomsticks because they had no assault rifles. They also had no working submarines at that point.

The situation has changed fairly dramatically in terms of defense spending plans. I'm not saying that having him back in office wouldn't cause other disasters, but he would probably back off the threat to pull out of NATO. There's also the fact that we have a treaty commitment to NATO. WIthdrawal from it would require the approval of Congress.

This related back to a quote earlier on in the day on this thread just a little more in depth/ dumbed down slightly.

BBC News:

"Nato leaders are meeting today at the alliance's summit in Madrid, where they could back a massive increase in the number of alliance troops on high alert - to more than 300,000.
Reading between the lines of today’s speech by the head of the British Army, General Sir Patrick Sanders (who says Britain is facing its "1937 moment"), what he’s calling for is a complete, radical overhaul of Nato’s strategy to defend the Baltics.
This current strategy involves stationing relatively small, multinational contingents of troops and equipment in the four Nato countries on Russia’s border that fear a future invasion.
Dubbed ‘the Enhanced Forward Presence’ these contingents are based in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland and were recently bolstered in the wake of the Ukraine invasion.
But there is an acceptance in Nato circles that in the event of war and a full-scale Russian invasion these troops would be incapable of holding back an advance. Extra Nato forces would have to be rushed to the battlefront, possibly taking days, and would then try to retake territory already seized by Russia.
Not surprisingly, the Baltic states are less than impressed by this idea and have been calling on Nato to radically increase its presence there now, and not when it’s already too late. General Sanders appears to agree.
"We must stop Russia seizing territory rather than expecting to respond to a land grab with a delayed counter offensive," he says.
Words that will be warmly welcomed in Tallinn. The question is: does Nato actually have the manpower and the money to base yet more forces so far from home."

Relates*

Flash
@Flash43191300
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2h
1/2⚡️Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi says that the Indonesian authorities ruled out Putin's personal presence at the G20 summit in Bali on November 15-16.

"As for President Putin at the G20, the President of Indonesia categorically ruled out this,

BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
“It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg

to make statement

This is great news.

Fantastic news.

Bet he is furious

Coming back on (was tiddytid)

I came off the threads as I was absolutely for going in. Looked like it wasn't going to happen so stepped away as I find it so bloody depressing.

Genocide still happening. Looks like British troops are being told to potentially get ready.

Should've done this in the first bloody place. Now Russia have done what they've done with hundreds of thousands of deaths and are regrouping.

yle.fi/news/3-12514497

I wonder how they addressed Turkey's concerns though and came to this agreement

@Natsku this is what they got: twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1541853998138986497?s=21&t=Keg59aXnTLyvcwD-JlPxpg

Oh. Not sure how I feel about that.

They were discussing it on the Context tonight and the main concern seems to be around the extradition agreement, particularly in relation to political dissidents. The Finnish president has said that any extradition will also need to comply with international human rights law.

On the point about readying the army to go into Ukraine, I simply don’t agree that’s the case. I don’t think we’re any closer to boots on the ground in Ukraine than we’ve ever been.

@Rabbitholedigger welcome back, I’ve missed your input :-) I’m glad they’re talking about readying troop but I don’t think they’re planning on going in yet, being ready to go at a moments notice is a big improvement imo though. If (and it’s a big if) we do end up needing to use our/eu/nato troops then taking days to get them to the area would be too late.

Thinking some of you will be more knowledgeable than me here..,..
A few months ago Wasn’t boris wanting to carry on with the reducing the number of arched forces we have despite the war? Did this also include reducing defence spending. Are these planned cuts now on hold does anyone know?

I think I’ve just heard on the news bulletin that Boris is planning to break his manifesto promise of increasing defence spending to 0.5%? above inflation. I guess I can see why with the way inflation has gone this year but the gov are imo going to have to start spending money again. So many sectors of society need money input.

Why, thank you @Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway

I've been watching and feel rather hopeless about it all.

Sending in weapons isn't enough. Ukraine needs experienced tactical troops on the ground. That's us and NATO, I'm afraid. And going into war again is horrendous. I so wished Ukraine would've got the bastards out by now.

@Rabbitholedigger , no going in or boots on the ground by NATO on Ukraine soil. There has not been any mention or suggestion. Ukraine has not asked for it but that is because they know they won't get it. It is sadly a big no no even though Putin is committing atrocities every single day in plain sight. Going in is apparently a red line. Too provocative to Putin's nuclear trigger finger.

Ukraine has been asking for heavy weapons and it is starting to come in. Their forces were being trained on using them. It is arriving. But on condition Ukraine cannot use the long range artillery to strike into Russian soil.

The last few weeks have been very very difficult for Ukraine in the south. They have been losing a horrific number of soldiers and losing territory to Russia. I have been quite sad for them, helpless really.

Willing Ukraine to hang in there. I am hoping the weapons start to turn the tide back in Ukraine's favour. There is a big tranche from the US. Fingers crossed.

I know @blueshoes

It's just so frustrating

Boris says Putin is a classic example of toxic masculinity. For once, I'm with Boris! www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/29/boris-johnson-claims-putin-would-not-have-invaded-ukraine-if-he-was-a-woman

Just to re-iterate what others have said..there's zero suggestion that "our boys and girls" in the UK are being readied to put boots on the ground in the current conflict in Ukraine.

I think one or two eyebrows are being raised about what various people have said over the last day or two..lots of fine words but:

Obviously as far as UK defence spending there is this:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/28/no-10-to-ditch-defence-spending-manifesto-pledge

And then as far as some statements made by some in the military..some feathers have been ruffled: the UK is a long way off having significant numbers of tanks and artillery but I gather nevertheless the impression was very much given that some in the UK would like to see a British Very Senior Officer have operational command of combined forces in the event of any major unpleasantness, in say, the Baltic States.....

Posturing, possibly done for domestic consumption or reasons of career progression is not helpful in current circumstances.