Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

[MagicFox]

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

Tillsfotthrills it's called Ukraine - Life under attack

I agree. It is meant as a deterrent to Russia expanding the conflict.

mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1541485216279265281 statement from the company who make Bayraktor drones about the latest crowd funder. They will donate 3 drones and will not take the money raised but ask that it is given to the Ukrainian people

@katem98 I had similar anxiety in my 20s and 30s about my health and I understand how paralysing and exhausting it is. It robs you of all joy. Sertraline helped me. There might be something the go can do to help you if this is becoming a longer term issue. I would kindly say your response is not normal for the average person and I don't like to think of you suffering.

@blueshoes · Today 21:27
MagicFox
Awful attack on a shopping centre in Kremenchuk. Just blatantly hitting civilians. Disgusting

Pictures of the fire at the shopping centre are horrific. Russia claiming the scenes were staged by Ukraine, of course.

How is that supposed to have been? The Ukrainians put some bodies from a morgue in there and then bombed it themselves?

Thank you @Hillsmakeyoustrong. I think I may need Diazepam at this rate. I'll have to take a trip back to the GP - I thought I had it under control!

Sorry to derail the thread a little, please ignore me. As much as this whole situation scares me, I really do appreciate this thread for keeping me in check.

@OwlsDance · Today 22:26
Doubt he'll actually come. A lot of things can happen by November...

Russia is now saying that any attack on Crimea will be an official declaration of war to Russia. I think they're getting concerned that it's a real possibility now, otherwise they wouldn't be saying it!

And all the Russian attacks on Ukraine have not been a declaration of war? The double-bind imposed on UKraine is becoming more and more outrageous.

Is Putin deliberately trying to provoke Nato into an action which he could declare is an actual attack on Russia?

@katem98 · Today 22:59
@Hillsmakeyoustrong Thank you, I hope you're right. Although, still not a pleasant read.

I'm not sure I'm dealing with this like the average person in the UK. My hair is falling out, my nails have all been bitten off and I can't concentrate on a single thing yet I can't stop refreshing news pages - I really can't help it!

I am very sorry you are feeling so caught up with the worry of it all and are so distraught.

If you could make yourself not look at the news for about three or four hours at a time, it can help quite a lot. If you could get away for a few days and be too busy to look even better as it would help break the cycle. I say this from experience.

That article seemed to me too to be about being ready and not being complacent about defence, rather than a sign of us being in danger of an imminent attack/ all out war.

Yes, completely outrageous and delusional. Russia truly is a mafia state, just threats, violence and theft at its core.

I suspect Ukraine will just press on. I hope Crimea is not considered 'Russian' territory and so Ukraine will not break any promises to the US or its allies if it uses their long range weapons to strike there.

Thank you for that @ScrollingLeaves. I've just come back off of a 10 day break and was fine until I started twiddling my thumbs a little. Note to self to keep busy! Your take on the link is also reassuring, thank you

Putin is more than able to do false flag attacks on itself without the need to provoke NATO or Ukraine into anything. Russia can simply make it up stage the attack to the Russian people who won't know better.

If Russia wanted to declare a war, I doubt they'd wait till NATO was itself ready to fight a war. Russia would want an early advantage over NATO.

Just to be clear, I am not expressing any opinion or have any intelligence that Russia wishes to declare a war with NATO or anything, other than the usual Russian threats of everything.

Thanks for the new thread noticed some provocative questioning of Boris today along the lines of ‘so despite the coat of living crisis at home where people can’t afford to eat you’re still determined to keep on funding Ukraine’. Very disappointing to pit UK against Ukraine and reminded me of the Brexit media rhetoric.

Don't forget too that G. Sanders has just got the job and so he does need to show he's new and fabulous and doing something good. He's also saying what we already know: that Russia is a threat and we must prepare, not sleepwalk. He's not saying that we're at war. Nobody knows how it will go so every eventuality must be prepared for, including the worst. But that doesn't mean the worst will happen. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. I'm not dismissing how you feel because as you can tell from my posts, I often get in the same state!

Agree, that article is about preparing the British public for additional defence spending. I actually think it’s quite a measured reflection of where we are. He expressly says the aim is to avert war.

The comments on Crimea stink of Putin’s fear, which frankly brings me a little joy.

I hope Crimea is not considered 'Russian' territory and so Ukraine will not break any promises to the US or its allies if it uses their long range weapons to strike there.

The Russians certainly consider it so, I think it would be bad times if Ukraine struck Crimea. And for all the talk of pre-2014 borders from the EU I'm pretty sure (though can't remember where I read this so I might be wrong/need clarification) Crimea has been mentioned before as no-go by the US.

And to add to Jelly's point, Ben Wallace has written to Johnson to demand we up our defence spending not to 2% but to 2.5. Personally, I think it should be more. But this correlated with jelly's point about preparing the public to accept economic hardships at home/a move to a wartime economy.

Also, it'd be good if this wasn't cooked up between BW and BJ and BW was going it alone. I'd rather he was PM!

CNN this morning reporting of internal disagreement in the Biden administration as to whether it’s actually possible for Ukraine to win back all of its territory to pre-24 Feb boundaries, even with new high power weapons.

I've wondered if the rhetoric about winning back pre-2014 boundaries is actually about bringing something to the negotiating table. "Ok, we'll give this ambition up if you fuck off"

For those who are of a nervous disposition I think it’s probably important to be mindful that given the NATO summit today we may well see Russia throwing it’s toys out the pram and threatening, as they do. It all needs to be read in the context of the fact that an anti-Russian coalition are meeting, partly to discuss how to contain Russia and also to hopefully agree enlargement on Russia’s borders.

All of the above is needed but it’ll ruffle feathers undoubtedly. Russia are likely shutting themselves, and so they should be.

I am no politician or military strategist but I cannot see how Ukraine will win back Mariupol. I have said before I worry about its fate. So many of the original citizens are now internally displaced, in Russia or have very sadly died. And like Red said in a pp, there are those who have tried to return to Mariupol to be informed they have 'officially' lost their property. I hate to say it, but I fear Mariupol will be rebuilt by Russia, for Russia and will be populated by Russians.

Russia doesn't rebuild houses on its own territory, it's not gonna start doing it in Mariupol. That's an extra yacht or a holiday house you're talking about.

There's no reason to believe that Ukraine can take Kherson back but not Mariupol. Russians aren't going to defend it the way Ukrainians did. Ukraine was defending their land, their homes. What will Russians be defending? Dieing for?

BTW Peskov is backpedalling, saying Russia isn't supplying Belarus with nuclear weapons, it's only giving the rockets that are capable of carrying them.

Russia can start a war with NATO any time they like. It doesn't need to wait for NATO. It can invade, bomb or otherwise attack a NATO country without asking permission of NATO.

The idea of 'provoking NATO' is ridiculous. It will need a clear indisputable incident to 'provoke' NATO. 'Provoking NATO' is restricted strictly to an aggressive attack on a NATO member. There is no other scenario, bar perhaps a nuclear attack on Ukraine, where NATO is going to 'be provoked'. (And even then its actually doubtful).

Can we stop this nonsense pro-putin rhetoric. NATO will absolutely only respond to a Russian attack at this point. There will be no preemptive stuff, for good reason.