Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Chat

Join the discussion and chat with other Mumsnetters about everyday life, relationships and parenting.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

1000 replies

MagicFox · 24/06/2022 11:38

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

OP posts:
Thread gallery
74
L1ttledrummergirl · 26/06/2022 20:19

Thank you for the new thread. I appreciate the information being given.

OwlsDance · 26/06/2022 20:53

Well it'd be interesting to see what happens. Surely whoever has their eyes on "tge throne" don't want to rule completely ruined country. Although the default really is just a tiny drop in the ocean.

minsmum · 26/06/2022 21:01

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaman-special-forces-take-the-fight-across-the-border-into-russia-0l6srllwk sorry I tried to use a share thingy does this work. It talks about special forces identifying targets in Russia, ammunition dumps etc

MagicFox · 26/06/2022 21:06

Transcript of conversation between Putin and Macron four days before the war: www.letemps.ch/monde/emmanuel-macron-vladimir-poutine-quatre-jours-guerre-ne-sais-juriste-appris-droit

OP posts:
ScrollingLeaves · 26/06/2022 21:07

@blueshoes - Today 17:46

@ScrollingLeaves you asked "What is really going to happen in the US (and here, and France)? Will Ukraine just be abandoned through turmoil everywhere if they don’t win in time?"

This is the sort of question that periodically keeps me up at night (figuratively). I appreciate all the posters who have been reassuring on this front.

If it helps, I found this link in Phillip O'Brien's thread re: an anonymous Pentagon briefing this week reassuring as well:

www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3073420/senior-defense-officials-hold-a-background-briefing-june-24-2022/

Thank you Blueshoes.
It does help to see how committed the U.S.
defence is to Ukraine and how closely in touch they are with them, step by step it seems.

blueshoes · 26/06/2022 21:17

minsmum · 26/06/2022 21:01

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaman-special-forces-take-the-fight-across-the-border-into-russia-0l6srllwk sorry I tried to use a share thingy does this work. It talks about special forces identifying targets in Russia, ammunition dumps etc

minismum, the share thingy does not work for me.

blueshoes · 26/06/2022 21:25

OwlsDance · 26/06/2022 20:53

Well it'd be interesting to see what happens. Surely whoever has their eyes on "tge throne" don't want to rule completely ruined country. Although the default really is just a tiny drop in the ocean.

Whoever has their eye on the Throne who thinks they can do a better job than Putin without the gravitas and standing that Putin has built with the Russian population over decades must be even more deluded than Putin. God help us. Better the devil that is Putin. I suspect only Putin has the stature to voluntarily take Russia out of this war (should he so choose) and bring the Russian people along with it (with massive lies of course) without being utterly consumed and destroyed by the decision. His successor's only option may be to escalate to secure a 'win'.

I am also basing my theory on the sum total of nothing.

minsmum · 26/06/2022 21:46

Blue shoes I will try againAgain

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 26/06/2022 21:46

blueshoes · 26/06/2022 21:17

minismum, the share thingy does not work for me.

The article is on twitter more or less sentence by sentence, or at least I think it is because the start of the thread is the same as the start of the article that you see before the paywall:

twitter.com/thetimes/status/1541115619705331713

If it is true, it ought not to be in The Times; people on covert ops don't really need publicity.

minsmum · 26/06/2022 21:47

Sorry I really am terrible at IT

blueshoes · 26/06/2022 22:10

No worries, minsmum, thanks for trying and keep sharing. I like your uplifting links.

OwlsDance · 26/06/2022 22:26

blueshoes · 26/06/2022 21:25

Whoever has their eye on the Throne who thinks they can do a better job than Putin without the gravitas and standing that Putin has built with the Russian population over decades must be even more deluded than Putin. God help us. Better the devil that is Putin. I suspect only Putin has the stature to voluntarily take Russia out of this war (should he so choose) and bring the Russian people along with it (with massive lies of course) without being utterly consumed and destroyed by the decision. His successor's only option may be to escalate to secure a 'win'.

I am also basing my theory on the sum total of nothing.

Everyone keeps saying this, but it might not necessarily mean escalation. A lot of people in Russia, including a lot if elite do understand how pointless this war is, and pretty much unwinnable at this stage. Most aren't as deluded as Putin. So while the new person would have to be very ballshy, it might not necessarily mean escalation of war. They might declare Putin an idiot and remove him, and end the war to "save" Russia from economic ruin. Most likely it won't be as noble as it sounds, but I think people will lap it up, as Putin's support seems to be at all times lowest. You then just have to promise a few things and keep feeding off whatever left.

blueshoes · 26/06/2022 23:17

Owlsdance, I do hope so. The best route to lasting peace without the risk of drastic escalation is for Russia to voluntarily come to its senses and get the hell out of Ukraine. It is fine if a regime change is what it takes. I couldn't be more glad to see the back of that Pu character.

Ijsbear · 26/06/2022 23:31

`as Putin's support seems to be at all times lowest.

WIthin Russia ? There was that US company that did some research on the world wide view of him but I regard that with quite a lot of skepticism.

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2022 23:58

blueshoes · 26/06/2022 21:25

Whoever has their eye on the Throne who thinks they can do a better job than Putin without the gravitas and standing that Putin has built with the Russian population over decades must be even more deluded than Putin. God help us. Better the devil that is Putin. I suspect only Putin has the stature to voluntarily take Russia out of this war (should he so choose) and bring the Russian people along with it (with massive lies of course) without being utterly consumed and destroyed by the decision. His successor's only option may be to escalate to secure a 'win'.

I am also basing my theory on the sum total of nothing.

I beg to differ. Only Putin has the gravitas to keep Russia together. There is no obvious successor. That means the priority of the next leader will be for him to take internal control. When Putin goes there will be greater regional dissent.

For example, the Chechen TikTok fighters have pledged loyalty to Putin personally, not to Russia. So you will have internal infighting between political rivals as several vy to take over as the next Tsar. They will all promise important groups within the security establishments certain things in exchange for support. These different organisations may find themselves backing different horses and there being a certain amount of tension to put it mildly. And the regions will see it as an opportunity to get concessions from Moscow. It will be a moment of great internal weakness. Continuing with a war of folly on top of that will only emphasise those cracks at that point.

Only an established leader can distract from internal affairs with a war. A new leader doesn't yet have the power to do this. He has to earn this and create the support they need. The war will implode when Putin goes, because the army don't want to fight it, and in that moment of weakness they are able to express that and tell the new leader. The Generals will set out their terms of support for the new leader; its hard to ses them saying anything other than end it. The lower ranks will see it as the moment to mutiny.

You cannot lead a war if you don't already have loyalty or fear.

CasualObserverUK · 27/06/2022 07:15

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡️ CNN: US to announce purchase of surface-to-air missile defense system for Ukraine.

U.S. President Joe Biden plans to announce the purchase of an advanced, surface-to-air missile defense system for Ukraine as early as this week, reports CNN, citing an unnamed source.
4:48 AM · Jun 27, 2022·Twitter Web App

CasualObserverUK · 27/06/2022 07:17

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡️Bloomberg: Sanctions push Russia to first foreign default since 1918.

Russia has defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century due to punitive Western sanctions imposed for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
5:14 AM · Jun 27, 2022·Twitter Web App
791

Ijsbear · 27/06/2022 07:18

morning.

Kyiv Indep:
⚡️Bloomberg: Sanctions push Russia to first foreign default since 1918. (expanded a bit below)

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted a missile strike against Kyiv for the first time since April 29, likely to coincide with the ongoing G7 leadership summit.

Russian Colonel-General Gennday Zhidko has likely taken over the role of theatre commander of operations in Ukraine. [it's been a long time since we heard of Gerasimov hasn't it? anyone heard of him?]

Russian forces continued attacks against the southern outskirts of Lysychansk and consolidated control of Severodonetsk and surrounding settlements.

Russian forces are conducting operations to the east of Bakhmut to maintain control of the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway.

Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground assaults to the northwest of Slovyansk.

Russian forces intensified artillery strikes against Ukrainian positions along the Southern Axis.

Russian occupation authorities are escalating measures to stem Ukrainian partisan activity in occupied areas through increased filtration measures and the abduction of civilians.

Russian forces conducted a missile strike against Kyiv for the first time since April 29, likely to coincide with the ongoing G7 leadership summit.

+++

Kyiv Indep. Telegram:

Two Russian ammunition depots in Mykolaiv Oblast and one in Kherson Oblast were also destroyed.

⚡️ Russia launches missile strike on Odesa Oblast, casualties reported. Six people, including one child, were injured in a missile strike launched from a Tu-22M Russian aircraft,

⚡️ CNN: US to announce purchase of surface-to-air missile defense system for Ukraine.

⚡️Bloomberg: Sanctions push Russia to first foreign default since 1918.
Russia has defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century due to punitive Western sanctions imposed for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. June 26 marked the expiry of a 30-day grace period for the payment of around $100 million to investors.

⚡️Japan announces additional sanctions on Russia.

⚡️General Staff: Russian troops push to block off Lysychansk from south.

+++

UkraineNOW

🇪🇺 EU candidate status gives access to money to bring Ukraine closer to EU standards

⚡️Ukraine has asked Switzerland to help provide consular relations for Ukrainians in Russia
Switzerland already represents the interests of Georgian citizens in the Russian Federation since Tbilisi severed diplomatic relations with Moscow after the 2008 Russian invasion.

❗️The missiles that the Russians used today to hit Ukrainian cities cost from $5 million per piece. Strategic bombers Tu-95 and Tu-160, which attacked Kyiv from the waters of the Caspian Sea, are armed with high-precision Kh-101 type missiles. These are one of the most expensive cruise missiles in Russia. One such missile costs at least $5 million. [the sheer economic cost of this war!]

Ukraine NOW [English], [27/06/2022 07:32]
[ Photo ]
⚡️Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna said that Ukraine is not in danger of losing its candidate status for membership in the European Union if the conditions are not met. "The decision of the European Council, which was adopted on June 23, is different from the recommendation provided by the European Commission. Because the candidate status we received unconditionally", Stefanishyna explains. She noted that the decision of the European Council stipulates that the European Commission will assess the implementation of the conditions of reforms at the end of 2022, but the further stages related to membership will depend on it.

📦 General Staff: Belarus sent about 20 wagons of ammunition to Russia

notimagain · 27/06/2022 07:44

Re UKr SF and

If it is true, it ought not to be in The Times; people on covert ops don't really need publicity.

Agree with that..

I have some doubts about the story but if it convinces the Russians that there might be a threat then that might be a good thing.

Ijsbear · 27/06/2022 08:52

updates

Ukraine Invasion: Part 28
Ukraine Invasion: Part 28
RedToothBrush · 27/06/2022 09:02

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61929926

More on the default.

Natsku · 27/06/2022 09:06

OwlsDance · 26/06/2022 22:26

Everyone keeps saying this, but it might not necessarily mean escalation. A lot of people in Russia, including a lot if elite do understand how pointless this war is, and pretty much unwinnable at this stage. Most aren't as deluded as Putin. So while the new person would have to be very ballshy, it might not necessarily mean escalation of war. They might declare Putin an idiot and remove him, and end the war to "save" Russia from economic ruin. Most likely it won't be as noble as it sounds, but I think people will lap it up, as Putin's support seems to be at all times lowest. You then just have to promise a few things and keep feeding off whatever left.

That's what I'm thinking too, though its probably just wishful thinking.

ScrollingLeaves · 27/06/2022 09:24

@Ijsbear · Today 07:18

Thank you for the news this morning.

One such missile costs at least $5 million. [the sheer economic cost of this war!]

Absolutely. All for destruction. Then there will be the cost of trying to reconstruct everything too. This is talking of things. The cost in lives lost or harmed is not knowable, but like a black hole with no end.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 27/06/2022 10:01

CasualObserverUK · 27/06/2022 07:17

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡️Bloomberg: Sanctions push Russia to first foreign default since 1918.

Russia has defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century due to punitive Western sanctions imposed for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
5:14 AM · Jun 27, 2022·Twitter Web App
791

It's not entirely fair to say anything about Russian default between 1918 and 1991; Russia didn't exist at the time, so it couldn't have defaulted.

It is the first time Russia has defaulted since 1991, but that doesn't sound as good.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 27/06/2022 10:08

A report about Russians' stealing of grain in Ukraine was on the World Service this morning:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/61790625

Please create an account

To comment on this thread you need to create a Mumsnet account.

This thread is not accepting new messages.