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Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

1000 replies

MagicFox · 24/06/2022 11:38

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

OP posts:
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MagicFox · 26/06/2022 13:00

Thanks @Yarnasaurus

OP posts:
mids2019 · 26/06/2022 13:16

So how is this going to end?

There appear to be splits in the West about whether to support a peace deal which would concede Ukranian territory or to prepare Ukraine for counter offensives to recapture their territory.

If we are to support Ukraine in the latter scenario is the West prepared to continue to support Ukraine military and financially for a significant time? How long would we wait before we hear news about the Ukranian army in Mariupol?

Can the Ukranian government count on continued support of its people as the economy is crippled and there becomes a desire to return refugees?

I feel there may be a point where Ukraine and Russia need to think about a peace as both countries will be exhausted but some in the West will be unhappy unless Ukraine regains full sovreignty.

MagicFox · 26/06/2022 13:23

Well russia is escalating so it's not looking to end any time soon and we have to hope it doesn't spill over and pull the whole world in. @lilygrutcher reports Finland, Lithuania and Estonia have just put their forces on rapid reaction alert. Waiting for confirmation

OP posts:
thereisonlyoneofme · 26/06/2022 13:26

Russia going for sh*t or bust then ?

Igotjelly · 26/06/2022 13:38

I think the context is key here, escalation during this time isn’t unexpected. It’s the G7 and NATO meetings and Russia wants to make itself heard/threaten. I don’t think it’s any sign of an imminent world wide escalation.

blueshoes · 26/06/2022 14:06

RedToothBrush · 25/06/2022 17:03

But this they mean they are marking houses for demolition and telling the owners this but not a lot more.

Woman with relative who returned to Mariupol has said her relative has left Mariupol again. Relative called from Mariupol saying the city was "beautiful" but since returning to Russia has said the building has been condemned by the Russian authorities and far from being able to claim back her property she has officially lost it. She said that despite this and there being no roof on the building after it having been bombed, there were still 2 people living in the building on the ground floor and they had not left Mariupol at any point.

The relative here in the UK I know is bewildered by it all. She doesn't know how to help her relative now in Russia. Her relative said she doesn't trust either the Ukrainian government nor the Russian one (which is why she returned to Mariupol to check the situation for herself), but even having seen it, doesn't really know what to do or have a plan.

I'm not sure either have grasped them may be in a Berlin Wall / Korea situation where they may not get the chance to see each other for many many years (and that may be only with luck) due to circumstances and which side of the line they find themselves.

Reconstruction is definitely pushing it in terms of describing whats happening in Mariupol though.

@RedToothBrush thank you for sharing an insiders experience of a resident of Mariupol who is now living in Russia.

I note that when calling from Mariupol, the relative in Russia said said the city was "beautiful" but since returning to Russia has said the building has been condemned. Was that because she feared the Russians would be listening on her conversation? If so, surely Russia knows Mariupol is not 'beautiful' but still expect residents to say it is knowing it is a lie but still expecting them to lie. This is a crazy topsy turvy world of state-sanctioned collective self-delusion and brain washing.

I can understand how the relative in Russia is now at a loss with no one to trust. She must be living in a limbo land. I just read a WSJ article that residents of Donbas living under Russian occupation are also trapped in between. They are suffering severely under Russian occupation but the rest of Ukraine distrusts them. At least the relative is free to go to Russia but as you alluded to, there is a risk of partition at some point.

MagicFox · 26/06/2022 14:45

Good piece from War on the Rocks: warontherocks.com/2022/06/western-leaders-ought-to-take-escalation-over-ukraine-seriously/

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 26/06/2022 15:44

thereisonlyoneofme · 26/06/2022 13:26

Russia going for sh*t or bust then ?

Think so.

Theres a good thread by Phillip P OBrien on this today.

He analyses the last 3 weeks of the week and how little the Russians have gained. They have thrown everything at an extremely small part of the front line and haven't really gained. The headlines about the strategic victory over Sieverodonetsk is utter bollocks. The Ukrainians have lost the city but its not a strategic victory for Russia.

There are various military experts saying that things are so bad for Russia that the tipping point is almost upon us.

When you look at maps and the level of war outside Sieverodonetsk its hard to argue with.

Theres been yet another change of leadership within the Russian army.

I will post the thread later if i get a minute.

katem98 · 26/06/2022 15:52

At the risk of sounding incredibly stupid, what does 'shit or bust' mean? I've not heard of it before 😬

MagicFox · 26/06/2022 15:57

Here's the thread Red mentioned: twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1540961275928350721?s=21&t=DXOP4zhb610dnkxIkmuhVg

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 26/06/2022 16:07

MagicFox · 26/06/2022 15:57

Well that was quite a heartening read on a drab Sunday afternoon!

ScrollingLeaves · 26/06/2022 16:16

@Ijsbear

*in non-Ukraine news, this is unbelievable

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/26/illinois-mary-miller-roe-wade-abortion-verdict-victory-for-white-life-trump

Illinois Republican Mary Miller told a crowd at a rally held alongside former president Donald Trump that the supreme court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade was a “victory for white life”.

“President Trump, on behalf of all the Maga patriots in America, I want to thank you for the historic victory for white life in the supreme court yesterday,” she said, drawing cheers from the crowd in Illinois.

She made a wild slip of the tongue didn’t she?

It will be disproportionately poor black and Hispanic women who will be denied abortions. So this overturning of Roe vs. Wade will enforce the right to black life in the US.

ScrollingLeaves · 26/06/2022 16:19

What is really going to happen in the US (and here, and France)? Will Ukraine just be abandoned through turmoil everywhere if they don’t win in time?

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 26/06/2022 16:19

ScrollingLeaves · 26/06/2022 16:16

@Ijsbear

*in non-Ukraine news, this is unbelievable

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/26/illinois-mary-miller-roe-wade-abortion-verdict-victory-for-white-life-trump

Illinois Republican Mary Miller told a crowd at a rally held alongside former president Donald Trump that the supreme court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade was a “victory for white life”.

“President Trump, on behalf of all the Maga patriots in America, I want to thank you for the historic victory for white life in the supreme court yesterday,” she said, drawing cheers from the crowd in Illinois.

She made a wild slip of the tongue didn’t she?

It will be disproportionately poor black and Hispanic women who will be denied abortions. So this overturning of Roe vs. Wade will enforce the right to black life in the US.

I think it is an article of faith for the mad Maga faithful that if only poor white women didn't have abortions, why then the country would be white.

It makes no sense whatever, but I've seen it being touted before as the reason white supremacists oppose abortion.

ScrollingLeaves · 26/06/2022 16:23

@Yarnasaurus · Today 12:50
Thank you for the shared Times article.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 26/06/2022 16:48

Yes thankyou @Yarnasaurus

@katem98 my understanding is that it means Russia will continue on its path of wanton destruction, regardless of consequences, and will only stop when it has nothing left to throw at the situation. They will throw everything at it until they go bust.

katem98 · 26/06/2022 17:09

@Hillsmakeyoustrong Thanks for that Smile

ScrollingLeaves · 26/06/2022 17:22

@katem98 · Today 17:09
@Hillsmakeyoustrong

Hillsmakeyoustrong · Today 16:48
my understanding is that it means Russia will continue on its path of wanton destruction, regardless of consequences, and will only stop when it has nothing left to throw at the situation. They will throw everything at it until they go bust.

Thanks for that

I was wondering what it meant too. Thank you from me as well.

But I presume Russia don’t envisage themselves going bust relatively speaking - they maybe think that they’ll always have just that bit more will, equipment, people left than the West will.

blueshoes · 26/06/2022 17:46

Igotjelly · 26/06/2022 16:07

Well that was quite a heartening read on a drab Sunday afternoon!

@MagicFox thanks for the link to Phillip O'Brien's thread and @RedToothBrush for sign-posting to it. It is certainly well worth a read to raise hopes (if one dares to have their hopes raised).

@ScrollingLeaves you asked "What is really going to happen in the US (and here, and France)? Will Ukraine just be abandoned through turmoil everywhere if they don’t win in time?"

This is the sort of question that periodically keeps me up at night (figuratively). I appreciate all the posters who have been reassuring on this front.

If it helps, I found this link in Phillip O'Brien's thread re: an anonymous Pentagon briefing this week reassuring as well:

www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3073420/senior-defense-officials-hold-a-background-briefing-june-24-2022/

"SENIOR [US] DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Thanks. So I have no evidence of any Russian success in intercepting or, in any other way, impeding the steady flow of security assistance to Ukraine from the United States and its allies and partners. So no success there on the part of Russia.

In terms of moving more quickly, when Secretary Austin says that we're moving heaven and earth to get the equipment there, I can personally attest that that is absolutely true. There is no bureaucratic barrier that we haven't been able to bat down in order to massively streamline our own systems from a process perspective in terms of the decision-making, but also the logistics. And we have absolutely no barriers to communication with the Ukrainians to be able to identify those needs as quickly as possible. But I'll tell you, if anyone comes up with any additional ideas on how to get stuff there faster, we will the first to take that on board.

And your last point on Kyiv, you know, what we are doing across the board to strengthen the Ukrainian Armed Forces and to strengthen their capabilities will enable them to be able to continue to secure Kyiv and defend Kyiv."

A blood pressure-lowering read (for me anyway) from top to bottom about the unwavering support of the US Defence for Ukraine and just precisely how the latest weaponry from US and Western allies will start to make a difference for Ukraine. It is anonymous but I will take it as true. Smile

minsmum · 26/06/2022 19:07

Ukrainian special forces, interesting article in the Times

Ijsbear · 26/06/2022 19:27

Could you summarize it minsmum please? :) paywall

RedToothBrush · 26/06/2022 19:45

DuncinToffee · 26/06/2022 12:45

Is there anything in this thread, eg unusual for Putin to arrive in this fashion?

twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1540795050279534593?t=O0PWBIKnTjue4Yy6Xx8RbQ&s=19

Putin urgently came to the Kremlin, the reason is unknown.
The cortege with Vladimir Putin arrived at the Kremlin at 23:00.

Rumour is that war with Lithuania was talked about at the meeting. But I suspect to a certain extent thats bravdo. I do think we are entering a new, perhaps more dangerous phase of the war as Russia gets to the point where it cannot advance further. The tipping point we've been waiting patiently for.

But why have an emergency meeting at 11pm about war with Lithuania? It doesn't make sense. Something significant and important happened. The Lithuanian blockade issue has been brewing a few days. You wouldnt have an emergency meeting at 11pm about it.

This on the other hand....

https://www.ft.com/content/b1f725a5-717f-44d4-b35d-aee6abe4b42d
Russia heads towards default as payment deadline looms
Grace period for $100mn in interest payments ends on Sunday evening

Russia could default on its foreign debt for the first time this century as the clock ticks down on a pair of overdue interest payments blocked by western sanctions.

About $100mn worth of interest on Russian government debt is due to bondholders by Sunday night, the end of a 30-day grace period during which the country must make the payments to avoid defaulting.

And

The looming default would be Russia’s first since 1998 and comes after the US Treasury closed a loophole in sanctions last month that allowed American investors to receive payments from Moscow. Reneging on its debt would be a blow to Russia’s prestige and could trigger legal action from some creditors.

And

Russian officials, including finance minister Anton Siluanov, have repeatedly stated that western governments were trying to force the country into an “artificial” default and have persistently sought ways to circumvent the sanctions, saying Moscow would pay in roubles if dollars cannot reach bondholders.

“They can say whatever they want but a contract’s a contract and it clearly stipulates how and when it’s honoured,” said Ash. “As a creditor, you just want your money back, the excuses are meaningless.”

And

Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a decree this week setting out a new mechanism to make upcoming payments in roubles, including a further $400mn due on Thursday and Friday, and then allow investors to convert them into foreign currencies. Unlike some of Russia’s debt, the terms of these bonds do not contain any provisions for making payments in roubles.

And

Since Russia is likely to default because of sanctions rather than a lack of cash, there is expected to be little impact on its population. But “it’s going to be viewed as a big blow to credibility”, said Orlova

This is the time constrained issue for Putin. Interestingly the Kremlin has denied there is an emergency, cos obviously Putin has meetings at 11pm Saturday on a regular basis.

An embarrassing default when obviously everything is ok, is not a good look, and would go a long way to explain rhetoric in the last couple of days.

They need a distraction and to look tough.

Interestingly footage of the leaders of the G7 was released earlier today where they are joking about Putin and his topless horseriding and his need to look tough. They were saying something about taking off jackets and the conversation went to that. I also think the mood and the tone of those jokes in the context of thinly veiled threats to Lithuania is interesting. It doesn't suggest there is a feeling of huge concern amongst the G7. The footage is also pretty friendly and warm and doesn't smack of huge division...

Indeed it also smacks of a feeling that things are going the West's way. Perhaps its over confident, but if Russia are about to default, I think thats probably the exact mood you would be expecting...

OwlsDance · 26/06/2022 20:01

I too thought it's to do with the default.

My theory is that whoever thought they'd do a better job than Putin, will be using the default as a motive to make a move against him. As in, look what he's led the country into, I/we had no other choice... and maybe Putin was being told there's coup being planned, hence the emergency?

Just a theory based on pretty much nothing...

katem98 · 26/06/2022 20:03

@OwlsDance I saw a coup mentioned a few times on Twitter (just conspiracy, obviously) so you're not alone with your thoughts.

Igotjelly · 26/06/2022 20:06

I do think given Putin’s usual MO that some sort of internal issue (like a coup) is more likely for a middle of the night secret meeting. Anything aggressive he generally likes to do in full view.

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