Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

[MagicFox]

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

Insightful article. It explains how Putin took the mindset of the gangs of Leningrad of his youth to corrupt an entire state.

I now think of Russian state as a mafia state and terrorist organisation. They are an out-and-out criminal organisation with no place on the world stage. They only steal and destroy. They cannot develop people or institutions or build anything noteworthy other than to extort others and incite more violence.

They only exist because there are victims. But their victims will die. What would happen if there were nothing left in the world for Russia to prey on?

China does not operate like this.

Thanks for the explanations =)

@blueshoes · Today 22:08
@Ijsbear
“Interesting article on the current Russian mindset and how Putin brought the attitude of street gangs to the Kremlin. posle.media/?p=843&lang=en”

Insightful article. It explains how Putin took the mindset of the gangs of Leningrad of his youth to corrupt an entire state.

I now think of Russian state as a mafia state and terrorist organisation. They are an out-and-out criminal organisation with no place on the world stage. They only steal and destroy. They cannot develop people or institutions or build anything noteworthy other than to extort others and incite more violence.

They only exist because there are victims. But their victims will die. What would happen if there were nothing left in the world for Russia to prey on?

China does not operate like this.

That is a fascinating article. Thank you Ijsbear.

God bless Lockheed Martin. 😊

Honor cultures are not characterised by the experience of guilt. Guilt and remorse are linked to universal ethics, to the idea of a conscience.

I have often wondered if Putin or his army feel any guilt. I know I can't lump everyone together but this prevailing attitude tells me it's unlikely.

"The West Worries Too Much About Escalation in Ukraine
NATO Can Do More Without Provoking Moscow"

www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-07-12/west-worries-too-much-about-escalation-ukraine

I feel a bit sick that the leadership contest appears to be Sunak and Truss. Really?!

They only exist because there are victims. But their victims will die. What would happen if there were nothing left in the world for Russia to prey on?

They will turn on each other. This kind of aggressive-based societal interaction has to have winners and victims.

My own view is that it's a society of individuals motivated at root by fear as well as aggression.

I just lost the entire roundup post so ill do it in bits this time.

Key Takeaways

The Kremlin is reportedly sourcing Iranian UAVs likely to improve Russian aerial reconnaissance and indirect fire accuracy in Ukraine.

Russian forces conducted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults north of Slovyansk and east of Siversk.

Russian forces continued air and artillery strikes around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

Russian forces conducted multiple unsuccessful ground assaults north of Kharkiv City.

Russian forces likely conducted a false-flag attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in occupied Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast. [of all the places to do a false-flag!]

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian strikes killed multiple Russian officers in Kherson City on July 10.

Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian ammunition depots on the Southern Axis.

The Kyiv Independent, [13/07/2022 00:18]
⚡️Zelensky: Poland delivers AHS Krab howitzers to Ukraine.

Explainer: Is there any merit to Congresswoman Spartz' accusations against Zelensky's chief of staff (kyivindependent.com/politics/explainer-is-there-any-merit-to-congresswoman-spartz-accusations-against-zelenskys-chief-of-staff) {this one has to be handled very carefully]

⚡️Lithuania calls on West to cut economic ties with Russia.

⚡️Ukrainian World Congress takes Canada's government to court for releasing Nord Stream 1 turbines.

⚡️RFE/RL: Russia’s proxies in Donetsk, Luhansk oblasts lift death penalty moratorium.

⚡️EU considers providing 500 million euros in aid for Ukraine. [Be nice if the Germans stop blocking the 8billion that was promised, wouldn't it. They have been shameful in this affair].

UkraineNOW

🇪🇸 Spain is ready for negotiations on the transfer of up to 10 Leopard 2A4 tanks and 20 M113 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine — Infodefenca

📍 The U.S. is ready to punish 18 countries for violating sanctions against Russia
The list includes China, Türkiye, Brazil, India, Israel, Mexico, Serbia, UAE, South Africa, Nicaragua, Singapore, and Taiwan.
The list also includes former Soviet Union states such as Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

💪 Euractiv: The Lithuanian government approves a 10 million euro aid package for Ukraine's reconstruction

⚡️ The European Union is due to adopt a directive in October that will provide for the confiscation of EU-sanctioned Russian assets

💬 The United States has no doubts about Ukraine's proper use of American weapons — U.S. Department of State
"We are confident in the Ukrainian government's commitment to properly safeguard and account for U.S.-origin defense equipment. Without going into operational details, I can say that the United States is actively working with the government of Ukraine to ensure that defense articles and security assistance provided by the United States are accountable. We have great confidence in the Ukrainian government and what it is doing," said U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs Bonnie Jenkins.

⚡️ Russia and Belarus may not be allowed to participate in the 2024 Olympics — Vice-President of the International Olympic Committee Craig Reedie

More reports of low morale amount Rus soldiers but it has to be remembered that there are also some highly professional and highly motivated units too. Mostly in the the Donbas atm, apparently.

This is at least something in Germany's woeful showing

#Germany will completely stop buying #Russian coal from August 1, and from December 31 will refuse to buy Russian oil, reports Reuters.

The Armed Forces of #Ukraine destroyed six #Russian army depots in the past 24 hours, reports the speaker of the #Odesa regional military administration Serhiy Bratchuk.

I think Germany has done a huge amount to help Ukraine, they have basically risked ALL their energy supply to limit monies being sent to Russia & in a country that has a v large manufacturing sector, thats massive!

They also have a 2billion military aid package for Ukraine.

Need to look at the history of German involvement in overseas conflict.

Its all very well pontificating "Oh look what we are doing" whilst we sit on top of NS energy.

...and when or rather if this conflict is over (in favour of Ukraine) it will be Germany that will drive EU efforts to rebuild the place.

I wish, instead of finger pointing/look how good the UK is - we could at least acknowledge each countries efforts.... sometimes this thread is like a Brexit/hate the EU one.

Tom Tugendhat pledges increase in defence spending to 3% if elected as Tory leader

@AndreaC74

... I was about to say your post was unfair and then I did some digging.

I still think that Germany given the size of its economy could do a lot more.

The EU wants to make 9 billion available for Ukraine.
Germany appears to be blocking 8billion of that being released because they want it to go to the common European debt.

"German Minister of Finance Christian Lindner blocks a €9 billion financial tranche from the EU to Ukraine

So far, Berlin has approved only the first tranche of €1 billion.

According to the publication, German Minister of Finance Christian Lindner does not agree with the fact that Brussels proposes to finance aid to Ukraine at the expense of the common European debt"
(from UkraineNOW channel).

However, the source of that statement is not really identified which does mean that there can be a doubt. Still the claim is fairly detailed.

Regarding how other countries are regarded on this thread. I think that there is respect and admiration for Lithuania, Estonia, a lot for Poland and the middle European countries who know what the stakes are having lived under Russian rule. The only German leader who had lived under Russian rule was Merkel. Direct personal experience of living under Russian rule has intensely motivated the relevant countries.

There are many many criticisms you can make of the UK, but only right thing that Bojo has done is support Ukraine to the hilt, proportionally more than many (most?) countries.

I do agree that each country should be honored for what it does.
Lithuania, Poland, the country (Slovakia?) that gave its entire fleet of fighters to Ukraine, in pieces, iirc, to avoid the problem that they weren't allowed to give aircraft but there was no law against donations of aircraft parts! and others.

for info for anyone reading this is a link of what has been sent (in German but Deepl is good)

www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/themen/krieg-in-der-ukraine/lieferungen-ukraine-2054514

When you look at the statistica chart of military aid below, Germany comes out high. But when you look at the GPD of counties the proportion of aid is notably different.

I do think that Scholz has a presentation problem - he's a careful guy who hasn't had the best advice (or not listened to it) on how to portray Germany's role in all this. But while the German Defense minister has come out firmly in support of Ukraine, some of his other ministers seem rather pro-Russia.

I also take the point that a huge manufacturing country like Germany needs to be able to function or the knock-on effects are going to be very bad for germany and everywhere else. But they haven't covered themselves with glory at all, imo.

btw I loathe Brexit. I believe that the future was within Europe and it's personally caused me immense trouble and some distress. No idea how others feel ofc!

@Ijsbear · Today 09:24
@AndreaC74 74

Ijsbear thank you for taking the trouble to look into Germany’s contribution in detail, given Andrea’s assertion that unfair things are said about Germany here. I think it was worth being reminded by Andrea about what Germany had done and the cost to them too.

One of the reasons I like this thread is that people can say what they think, or question a view, but are answered after consideration and respectfully if there is disagreement. Often someone answers in detail as well so there is so much to learn from it.

I think it was worth being reminded by Andrea about what Germany had done and the cost to them too.

Yes. I was dismissive. Sorry.

@Ijsbear IMO Brexit is a disaster, along with covid, and other things that don't make sense. In my job, it created unnecessary tension with EU officials and a whole bunch of effort to workaround.

Thanks for re-typing the takeaways. Always appreciated and avidly read.

BBC Radio 4 - Evacuated to Russia

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00193v7

This was about Ukrainians being evacuated to Russia and portrayed a wide range of perspectives I thought.

@Ijsbear,

I think it was worth being reminded by Andrea about what Germany had done and the cost to them too.

Yes. I was dismissive. Sorry.

To be clear, I for my part didn’t mean to imply you were dismissive, only that I had been interested by Andrea’s post.

btw Germany is stopping buying any Russian coal in 18 days and all Russian oil by the end of the year.

Gas was not mentioned though.

@notimagain Here's a mention that Ukraine is using Himars fire to target Russian air defense systems:

twitter.com/RALee85/status/1546996215841259525

I also saw an unconfirmed report that the S300 and S400 systems can occasionally intercept an incoming R31 Himars rocket, but that they are easily overwhelmed by a volley of them. That would bump them up on the Ukrainian target list.

I also saw an unconfirmed report that the S300 and S400 systems can occasionally intercept an incoming R31 Himars rocket but that they are easily overwhelmed by a volley of them

That sounds entirely credible - saturate the targeted battery by giving it more targets than it can engage in the short time available between detection and impact.

I was watching the Feygin/Arestovych talk today, and they shared a very interesting map.

The red dots are Russian missile (artillery?) strikes on Ukraine. I can't remember the dates, but it was recent, when HIMARS started to work their magic. The difference between pictures is 4 days, with top one being an earlier date.