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Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

1000 replies

MagicFox · 24/06/2022 11:38

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

OP posts:
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74
MissConductUS · 11/07/2022 14:11

@notimagain

Hopefully it was an attempt at SEAD with follow up strikes, because whilst killing top of the range SAM systems is impressive and makes headlines just taking SAM sites because you can won't win this war..

Two possibilities occurred to me. If the S400 battery was positioned to protect one of the ammunition warehouses that were destroyed, it could easily have been taken out by the secondary explosions. It's also possible that the Ukrainians targeted it deliberately just to see if the Russians could actually intercept the HIMARS rockets. As the DailyKos article stated, surface to air targets will be a higher priority when Ukraine goes on the offensive.

@Ijsbear I don't know about European armies, but the US stock of war materials is very large. I read somewhere that over the last twenty years the DOD has purchased about 50,000 rockets for the HIMARS system and Lockheed has already been awarded an emergency contract to make more. American defense contractors also do a big business supplying allied governments and that production can be redirected to Ukraine.

notimagain · 11/07/2022 14:53

@MissConductUS

Two possibilities occurred to me. If the S400 battery was positioned to protect one of the ammunition warehouses that were destroyed, it could easily have been taken out by the secondary explosions. It's also possible that the Ukrainians targeted it deliberately just to see if the Russians could actually intercept the HIMARS rockets. As the DailyKos article stated, surface to air targets will be a higher priority when Ukraine goes on the offensive.

I think the whole S-400 system being destroyed in toto sounds a bit odd, TBH...it's not so much a point defence system ( unlike Starstreak, and the MANPADs) as a system which in theory covers a whole area and there should be no need to park a whole battery next to anything it would be tasked with defending.... There's also the issue that as I understand the transporter/launchers, comms trucks, radar heads would quite possibly be separated by hundreds of metres, if not several kilometers....so either the Russians screwed up badly, parked a whole battery on one car park or in one field (and yes, we know the Russians can screw up badly in this war) and did get totally clobbered or there is much more or less to this story then we are being told.

With regard to any offensive, I'm sure the DailyKos is right, pretty much item 1 of any major offensive these days is Suppression of Enemy Air Defences, SEAD - kill radars, missiles, fighters, comms links command centres.

MissConductUS · 11/07/2022 15:16

There's also the issue that as I understand the transporter/launchers, comms trucks, radar heads would quite possibly be separated by hundreds of metres, if not several kilometers...

Each rocket in a Himars pod can be given a specific GPS location to target, so it's possible the Ukrainians awarded four to the warehouse and just targeted the S400 command vehicle and launcher. One report had burning debris from an ammo warehouse scattered up to 3 kilometers from the site, so you never know. I doubt the BDA will ever be made public, but the antiair vehicles are easily seen by satellite reconnaissance. Either way, they have proven that those batteries can't even protect themselves, which will be important when the Ukrainians go on the offensive and actively conduct SEAD.

notimagain · 11/07/2022 15:27

So it's possible the Ukrainians awarded four to the warehouse and just targeted the S400 command vehicle and launcher.

Yep I get that....I wonder if one possibility is the supposed total loss of the battery was actually and in reality the loss of one or two key components which rendered the whole unit combat ineffective..as you say a element with a command function or a radar head.

MissConductUS · 11/07/2022 15:45

My assumption was combat ineffective, and not every component destroyed.

My confusion is why the S400 has been so ineffective against the M31 rockets. The are very fast with a small radar cross-section, but they are supposed to be within the design parameters of the S400. Lockheed may also have done things to make the rockets less radar reflective. Or given that it's Russia, it may just be incompetence and corruption.

notimagain · 11/07/2022 16:02

@MissConductUS

My assumption was combat ineffective, and not every component destroyed.

Likewise....

FWIW a group of us oldies are still picking the bones out of some Falklands conflicts engagements, including funnily enough some attempts by Uk Forces at SEAD that were little spoken about at all for many years afterwards.... A lot of what we now know really happened "down south" in '82 bears zero resemblance to what was being reported at the time and I'm sure this war is no different.

MissConductUS · 11/07/2022 16:41

I was in university during the Falklands War and remember following the news very closely, as did family members who were on active duty at the time. And I'm sure you're correct, there's a lot going on in Ukraine we're not hearing about for operational security reasons.

Natsku · 11/07/2022 17:00

MagicFox · 11/07/2022 12:47

Wtf?!

That does not seem wise

Ijsbear · 11/07/2022 18:23

MagicFox · 11/07/2022 07:05

From the below article, where Ukraine fits in:

"Against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia is striving to become an indispensable power, without which neither the US nor China will be able to win the system competition against each other. To achieve this, Moscow seeks to build and consolidate its "sphere of influence" based on a union between Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, which would help it become a major player with significant power projection in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Eurasia.[9] If President Vladimir Putin manages to subjugate Ukraine, this would fulfil Russia's geopolitical ambitions to revive a post-imperial state as a great power with a significantly improved position in global politics. In this regard, Russia's geostrategic approach pursues a vertical (north-south) extension of its geopolitical and geoeconomic interests, encompassing the Arctic Ocean and the Barents Sea, spanning its "near abroad" in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus, and reaching into Eurasia, West Asia, and North Africa.[10] The western flank of Russia, which is the eastern flank for NATO's European members, remains one of the most important geostrategic flashpoints because of the concentration of Russia's population in this area. Russia is slowly but surely shifting its centre of gravity from an interdependence with Western Europe to Eurasia, South Asia (India, Pakistan, Afghanistan), and even the Indo-Pacific region. For this reason, Putin is eager to close the chapter on the “sphere of influence” in Eastern Europe by reshaping the European security architecture once and for all, to turn his attention to the above-mentioned geopolitical and geoeconomic areas in the long run."

This long term planning makes me certain that he knows his heirs will be cut fom the same cloth as him.

notimagain · 11/07/2022 18:32

Not sure if this has been mentioned before, or how accurate/complete the story is:

bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2022/07/09/entire-slovak-mig-29-fleet-gifted-to-ukraine-bulgarian-su-25s-in-parts/

Ijsbear · 11/07/2022 19:11

I have to put this in here because this is something else Ukraine is doing RIGHT

👮‍♀️ Women defenders make up one-fifth of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukr, that is, 37 thousand. For comparison, this is one of the highest rates among NATO member countries. We are proud of the Ukr women warriors who every day defend Ukr from Ru invaders.

it pisses me right off when men say that women can't fight. We can be victimized, bombed, raped, murdered but we aren't allowed to fight? Fuck that.

minsmum · 11/07/2022 19:18

mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1546479429316214786 road sign in Lithuania

minsmum · 11/07/2022 19:52

mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1546420914165874689 Head of Ukraine's security council taunting Russia

blueshoes · 11/07/2022 21:13

Ijsbear · 11/07/2022 19:11

I have to put this in here because this is something else Ukraine is doing RIGHT

👮‍♀️ Women defenders make up one-fifth of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukr, that is, 37 thousand. For comparison, this is one of the highest rates among NATO member countries. We are proud of the Ukr women warriors who every day defend Ukr from Ru invaders.

it pisses me right off when men say that women can't fight. We can be victimized, bombed, raped, murdered but we aren't allowed to fight? Fuck that.

Very impressed with Ukrainian women taking up arms alongside the men. Hearts of lions, all of them.

Ijsbear · 11/07/2022 21:19

It's been a bad day for Russian officers

The Chief of Staff of the 22nd Army Corps of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (military unit 73954, Simferopol) Major General Nasbulin was killed
• Major General Nasbulin
• Colonel Gorobets
• Colonel Kens
• Lieutenant Colonel Koval
• Lieutenant Colonel Gordeev

All in a major Kherson strike

(unconfirmed but good chance it's reliable)

Ijsbear · 11/07/2022 21:28

Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧
@DefenceHQ
·
4h
United Kingdom government organization
🎬Ukrainian soldiers have arrived in the UK as part of the new UK-led military training programme.

The training will give volunteer recruits with little to no military experience the skills to be effective in frontline combat.

minsmum · 11/07/2022 21:38

This should make you chuckle mobile.twitter.com/drgonzo123/status/1539015357054169088

ScrollingLeaves · 11/07/2022 21:40

Ijsbear 21:28
The training will give volunteer recruits with little to no military experience the skills to be effective in frontline combat.

This is such a good thing. What a difference it will make compared to just being sent out into the thick of battles with no training or equipment.

minsmum · 11/07/2022 21:45

mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1546548984977686530 another Colonel reported killed in Ukraine

minsmum · 11/07/2022 21:47

Ignore my previous post it was in a post up thread

ScrollingLeaves · 11/07/2022 21:55

@minsmum · Today 21:47
Ignore my previous post it was in a post up thread

I saw your post about all those Russian commanders.killed. Thank you for posting it. It is good news in one way, awful too.

That was a funny caption on the picture of the toppled Russian tank. Thank you I did laugh.

Ijsbear · 11/07/2022 22:44

another funny

twitter.com/drgonzo123/status/1539015357054169088

ScrollingLeaves · 11/07/2022 23:41

I just saw this on Wartranslated
wartranslated.com/russians-react-to-nova-kakhovka-explosion

From
Novorissiya Militia Summaries” – 300k followers, citing Yekaterina Gubareva (former minister of foreign affairs of the so-called “DPR”):

I just received a message about an attack on our beautiful and peaceful Nova Kakhovka. They used the American HIMARS.
^What does it mean? The Americans actually went to war with Russia. They are fighting on territory that is actually already Russian.*
^Why? I answer: Over 10 thousand residents of the Kherson region have already received Russian passports.
This means today’s murders in Nova Kakhovka, sabotage in Kherson – this is murder of the Russians on their land.^
It is still difficult for me to predict how the confrontation between the two superpowers will end, but I can say for sure: we are on our own land! Referendum will be!
^We will be able to build a Russian paradise instead of a Ukrainian hell!
Each arrival is another point of no return^

First the Russians occupy. Kill or transport Ukrainians, or passportise Ukrainians most. likely under duress, and import Russians.. Then say they are Russians on Russian land being attacked. It is their land because there willl be a referendum.( If the translation is correct that seems an odd use of tenses.)

Ijsbear · 12/07/2022 07:19

Key Takeaways

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely continuing to allow Russia access to Belarusian airspace to indicate support to Russian President Vladimir Putin without risking the consequences of direct Belarusian military involvement in Ukraine.

Russian forces conducted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults northwest of Slovyansk and west of Donetsk City.

Russian forces continued air and artillery strikes around Siversk and Bakhmut.

Russian forces conducted localized ground assaults northwest of Kharkiv City.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis.

+++

⚡️Update: Death toll in Chasiv Yar rises to 33.
Ukraine's State Emergency Service reported that they have retrieved a body of another victim, aproximately a 9-year-old child, on July 11. This brings the death toll from a Russian missile strike on a five-story residential building in the city of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast to 33 people. The rescue operation continues.

⚡️Official: Ukraine hits Russian ammunition depot in Kherson Oblast.

⚡️US Congresswoman Spartz calls for Yermak’s resignation, better support for army from Kyiv.
U.S. Representative Victoria Spartz said that President Volodymyr Zelensky's Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak launched a “smear campaign” against her after she voiced concerns over his integrity.

⚡️Permanent Court of Arbitration rejects main Russian objections, supports Ukraine in Kerch Strait Arbitration Case.

Akhmetov will not transfer media empire to state, only the broadcasting licenses.

⚡️Pentagon: Next Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting to take place July 20.
According to U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, a virtual group meeting will take place on July 20. Austin also discussed the $400 million aid package announced last week in a phone call with Ukraine's Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov.

+++

❗️ The Russian military seized the Institute of Animal Husbandry "Askania-Nova" in the Kherson region. The invaders hung a Russian flag on the Institute's administrative building and introduced the "director of the enterprise" to the staff

🔚 About 900 companies out of 1,400 have ceased operations in Russia
Many Chinese companies remain in Russia. About 30 from the USA and some from France, Germany, Japan, Italy and other countries.
Of the world-famous brands, these are Leroy Merlin, Auchan, and Mary Kay.
The world-renowned company Tetra Pak is also active in Russia.

📌 The first eight foreign vessels arrived at the ports of Ukraine to transport agricultural products through the mouth of the Bystrinsky Canal of the Danube-Black Sea

The unblocking of the crossing became possible due to the liberation of the Zmiinyi Island from the invaders.

💡The Chornobyl nuclear power plant moves to the Paris Center of the World Organization of Nuclear Power Plant Operators. Since 1989, the Chornobyl nuclear power plant has been part of the capital's regional center.

❕Almost 80% of the population was evacuated from the Donetsk region
This was told by the head of the Regional Military Administration Pavlo Kyrylenko.

👥 The Pentagon announced the date of the Ramstein-4 meeting
The fourth meeting of the Ramstein format will take place on July 20 in a virtual format.

Ijsbear · 12/07/2022 07:55

A very serious reminder that no army is perfect.

www.bbc.com/news/uk-62083196

Again the corruption. Coverups, info not passed on.

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