Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

[MagicFox]

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

Is Iran supplying Russia with drones something we were already aware of/ expecting?

There were apparently fairly solid rumours of Iran supplying military equipment a couple of months ago. Had not myself heard anything about drones until now.

There is a discrepancy between the HIMARS jubilation and actual reports casualties again. From the rumours you'd expect 300 or so Russian dead but actual reported casualties are only 70. The released figures are, I believe, fairly carefully ascertained so either the jubilation was mistaken or there are quite a lot of deaths that have not been able to be confirmed (if they were deep behind enemy lines for example).

A Russian milblogger's comment on HIMARS

twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1546607263141531650/photo/1

@Ijsbear r · Today 07:55
A very serious reminder that no army is perfect.

www.bbc.com/news/uk-62083196

Again the corruption. Coverups, info not passed on.

Thank you, Ijsbear. That certainly is a serious reminder. It is very upsetting to know that when an apparently upstanding organisation, full of supposed gravitas and honour speaks, it may well be lying.

I think the principles of loyalty between soldiers means that no matter what anyone in your own group does, and even if you know it is a crime, you protect them. But it is at a permanent high cost to that organisation.

Even if we in the U.K. had never found out, Afghans would have begun to realise. I should think too the other soldiers who were aware of this ‘’kill’ game must have lost some faith and felt diminished.

Imagine detaining someone then saying you had taken them back inside, where they were apparently all of a sudden free to search around a room to find a gun or grenade. It does not even make sense. Yet they used that weak lie again and again with impunity.

mobile.twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1546805190656942085 Russian tank plays dead to avoid going to Ukraine

@minsmum · Today 13:04
mobile.twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1546805190656942085 Russian tank plays dead to avoid going to Ukraine

It is funny. People come up with very amusing captions.

Russia has immense stocks of missiles etc.

This assertion comes up again and again. Whilst I have no doubt they manufactured mountains of the stuff, I am not so sure they have been maintained and kept secure. Given how bloody corrupt the Russian army is, half the stock could have been sold off on the sly. On top of that is the problem of matching ammo to existing weapons.

Russia is now using naval anti-ship and surface to air missiles to attack ground targets. This is a strong indicator that their supply of regular missiles is greatly depleted. The naval and surface to air missiles are not terribly accurate when used to attack ground targets, so they are of limited use militarily, but fine for attacking civilians.

I think the principles of loyalty between soldiers means that no matter what anyone in your own group does, and even if you know it is a crime, you protect them. But it is at a permanent high cost to that organisation.

I think that if you are stationed in another country and you behave like this, it plays directly into the hands of the enemies and makes a whole shit load more of them.

Being under huge pressure makes people, even trained people, sometimes crack but if it happens regularly, becomes normal and then gets covered up - there's a huge problem.

It also really plays into the hands of tosspots like the Kremlin who will scream and shout how awful everyone else is while actively encouraging brutality themselves.
Some will fall for it in S America and Asia and Africa.

Too true Ijsbear.

I know it must be difficult for soldiers fighting together. My uncle in WWII did not report a private for a rape he knew he had committed, and over whom he was in charge, out of loyalty to his men, and the cohesion of the group seeming to him to be the most important thing. Possibly the private had even been a brave, good soldier in other ways. I think it preyed on my uncle.

@Ijsbear I wonder if the jubilation around the HIMARS is on account of the destruction of Russian ammo and machinery. I think it is 20 stores in the last 2 weeks from memory. If you are targeting stores, then likely the body count will be low. I think it's as ideal as it gets in war. Use ammo to destroy ammo.

@ScrollingLeaves I think this behaviour is not peculiar to the forces. I think men will cover up for their 'brothers'

FWIW there were reports a few years back that a new variant of the AS-4 anti-ship missile was being developed to have a capability against large nonmaritime targets such as bridges and single large structures.. not sure if that has been used in theatre but a few weeks back there was fairly credible footage of a more old style, common or garden basic, maritime AS-4 strike on a metropolitan area target, so yep they're being used...

OTOH using Surface to Air Missiles (SAMs) for Surface to Surface is really interesting if verified.

Reason being some/most/all ? SAMs ( and Air to Air Missiles - AiMs for that matter) can get quite flakey post launch if, when the steering unlocks shortly after the missile leave the rails, the guidance system isn't sending getting valid steering commands from, for example an associated fire control radar or an IR sensor.

As a result of that just elevating the launcher of a big SAM and pointing it in the general direction of a ground target might end up being spectacularly sub-optimal ...Maybe the Russians have found a way of locking the steering in the null position for flight to avoid that problem, but in that case all they've really done is produced a very expensive very dumb rocket with has a relatively small warheads ( those are usually optimised for aerial targets which are made of thin metal etc..).

Fundamentally if it is confirmed the Russians are now routinely using bigger SAMs in some form of surface to surface mode they are indeed very short of ammunition...

Fundamentally if it is confirmed the Russians are now routinely using bigger SAMs in some form of surface to surface mode they are indeed very short of ammunition...

The Urkainians have found multiple S300 missiles in gardens in areas under attack.

Desperate Russian Troops Apparently Lobbed Anti-Air Missiles At Ukrainian Targets On Land

The article discusses the same points you brought up - guidance problems, wrong type/too small warheads, etc. I think they are very short of ammunition.

@MissConductUS

Interesting article, thanks for the link.

You're welcome. All of the ammunition warehouses getting blown up, along with railroad junctures and vehicle parks is going to make the problem worse for the Russians. This may be what brings them to the culmination point.

Whilst indications are that Russia is low on precision missiles (good!), any chance it could run out of 'dumb' ammunition soon?

The collateral damage to civilians from Russia chucking missiles and artillery around is hard to bear, such as the recent strike on the crowded shopping mall in Kremenchuk.

Interesting article on the current Russian mindset and how Putin brought the attitude of street gangs to the Kremlin. posle.media/?p=843&lang=en

Good analysis of the war from Rob Lee, with some hints for possible future progression

twitter.com/RALee85/status/1546934782172463104

@blueshoes, I think what the Ukrainians are trying to do is destroy most of the ammunition the Russians have in theater and disrupt their supply lines so that they can't easily bring in more. I have seen a couple of mentions on twitter that their artillery fire is dropping off. They are certainly running out of other things, like modern tanks and personnel carriers.

They do target things like command units as well. Number of HIMARS is the key. The more they get, the more targets they can hit. The less they get, the more they need to ration/prioritise what they hit. Obviously, they need to piroritisr anyway, but with more HIMARS they can hit smaller units, etc. which would be quite demoralising for RF army.

could someone explain the significance of this to me please? From Rob Lee:

A source tells TASS that Russian Su-30SM fighters are using Kh-31 missiles in Ukraine.

@Ijsbear Just saw this comment on Twitter from someone else, not sure if it answers the question.

"It is mostly an anti-radiation missile - not anti tank - fitted to home on radars, so probably going to target AA defences."

I'm not sure the SU-30/Kh-31 story reveals anything new because if it's a reference to the anti-radiation version of the missile (Kh-31-P) I would have assumed they would have been used by the Russians on day one of this conflict, but in any event the Twitter comment pretty much covers the basics.

The P variant is designed to attack radar heads by homing in on the signals a radar system radiates when it is operating and it's main use would be against things like radar early warning sites and fire control radars associated with SAM systems.

Anti-radiation missiles are not a new concept, they date back at least the Vietnam War with ordnance like the Shrike missile and these days plenty of nations have something similar in their inventory.

Their presence in this conflict will complicate things for the Ukraine Air Defence systems because the operators may have to be a bit canny and cunning in the use of their radars.

@MissConductUS and @OwlsDance thanks for your thoughts on Russia and its ability to maintain artillery attacks. Hurray for HIMARS and much hope for Ukraine's efforts to destroy Russian's artillery supply chains.