Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

[MagicFox]

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

No good can ever come of giving such a post to a compulsive liar who eventually betrays everyone who's ever trusted and looked up to him.

I don't normally read the DailyKos website as it's a bit partisan, but they have a former US Army artillery specialist covering the war and I find a lot of his coverage very insightful.

Ukraine Update: HIMARS rules the night, aka 'it's HIMARS'o'clock'

It's pretty clear based on the number of targets getting hit that all eight units sent so far are deployed and getting plenty of ammo.

I also found a thread on reddit that the Russians assumed their state of the art S-400 antiair missile system could shoot down the incoming M32 rockets fired by the Himars. Apparently, they cannot and at least one $300 million S-400 system was destroyed. So they have no defense against them. The Russians are now investigating the company that makes them for fraud. I'll try to find the link later.

I couldn't find the discussion on reddit but google brought up the article. I guess it's getting a lot of attention.

Scandal in Russian concern Azmaz-Antey - according to documents S-400 complexes should shoot down HIMARS missiles, but AFU destroyed this complex in Khartsyzsk with these missiles - Anton Gerashchenko

Dear heavens, a 300 million system destroyed? The numbers are astonishing!

And 4 more HIMARS will be headed Ukraine-wards ...

@MissConductUS appreciate the link to HIMARS ruling the night and Russian S-400 defences failing.

Russians ammo depots must be like sitting ducks. Always good to give them a taste of what they are doing to civilian targets.

$300 million is the export price, and includes all sorts of specialized vehicles, radars, launchers, etc. I'm sure the Russian army pays less, but they have spent billions on them. Turkey bought an S400 system a few years ago and it caused a big uproar in Nato.

As the article indicates nothing is safe and it's causing panic in Russian controlled areas. They have no way of attacking them and no defense against them.

"Enter the ‘DragonBear’: The Russia-China Partnership and What it Means for Geopolitics"

www.orfonline.org/research/enter-the-dragonbear/

From the below article, where Ukraine fits in:

"Against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia is striving to become an indispensable power, without which neither the US nor China will be able to win the system competition against each other. To achieve this, Moscow seeks to build and consolidate its "sphere of influence" based on a union between Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, which would help it become a major player with significant power projection in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Eurasia.[9] If President Vladimir Putin manages to subjugate Ukraine, this would fulfil Russia's geopolitical ambitions to revive a post-imperial state as a great power with a significantly improved position in global politics. In this regard, Russia's geostrategic approach pursues a vertical (north-south) extension of its geopolitical and geoeconomic interests, encompassing the Arctic Ocean and the Barents Sea, spanning its "near abroad" in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus, and reaching into Eurasia, West Asia, and North Africa.[10] The western flank of Russia, which is the eastern flank for NATO's European members, remains one of the most important geostrategic flashpoints because of the concentration of Russia's population in this area. Russia is slowly but surely shifting its centre of gravity from an interdependence with Western Europe to Eurasia, South Asia (India, Pakistan, Afghanistan), and even the Indo-Pacific region. For this reason, Putin is eager to close the chapter on the “sphere of influence” in Eastern Europe by reshaping the European security architecture once and for all, to turn his attention to the above-mentioned geopolitical and geoeconomic areas in the long run."

$300 million is the export price, and includes all sorts of specialized vehicles, radars, launchers, etc.

Yep, one "system" isn't a single truck, it is the whole circus of launchers, radars, vehicles to supply power, comms, command and control vehicles ....so quite what was actually hit ???

The allegation that a system was at least rendered ineffective by a HIMARS strike is a good thing, the reality is most/all surface to air missile systems can be knocked out by various methods such as perhaps a coordinated strike using multiple rounds possibly fired from multiple launchers in several locations. You can pretty much overwhelm any system if you send it enough targets of the right sort at the same time, so it would be interesting to know what went on in detail ( but rightly hopefully we won't).

Probably the biggest question in my mind is was for example the Khartsyzsk complex a deliberate attempt at what was known as Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD), with advantage taken of this system being down by the Ukrainian Air Force/missile forces to launch strikes on the surrounding area?

Hopefully it was an attempt at SEAD with follow up strikes, because whilst killing top of the range SAM systems is impressive and makes headlines just taking SAM sites because you can won't win this war..

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces are conducting a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine and engaging in operations to set conditions for future offensives.

Russian forces conducted limited probing operations northwest of Slovyansk.

Russian forces are likely intensifying artillery and missile strikes west of Bakhmut in order to isolate the city from critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs).

Russian forces conducted a limited and unsuccessful ground attack north of Donetsk City.

Russian military leadership continues to form ad hoc volunteer units and private military company combat organizations partly comprised of older men and criminals to support operations in Ukraine.

--
Russian milblogger Rybar provided more evidence of tensions between the Russian military command and Russian war correspondents.[2]....Rybar noted that Russian military commanders responsible for wartime information operations are attempting to silence Russian milbloggers and war correspondents to conceal the Russian military’s blunders during the invasion of Ukraine... ..... Rybar stated that the Russian Defense Ministry and possibly actors within the presidential administration are actively attempting to silence unofficial coverage of the Russian war in Ukraine......Rybar noted that the relationship between the Russian military command and war correspondents particularly soured after Russian President Vladimir Putin met with war correspondents during the St. Petersburg Economic Forum on June 17.......[bypassing the Russian MoD!] ....

.....The Russian information space would change significantly if the Ministry of Defense cracked down on the milbloggers and stopped them from operational reporting. ISW uses milbloggers and Russian war correspondents as sources of Russian claims on a daily basis....Russian milbloggers are increasingly criticizing Russian strategy and military leadership by seizing upon recent successful Ukrainian strikes against Russian rear areas.[7] Russian milblogger Voennyi Osvedomitel’ underlined the threat posed by Western-provided high mobility artillery rocket system (HIMARS)

+++

UkraineNOW

Doctor's perspective: 💬 "I haven't seen bullet wounds for a long time. Almost everything from artillery shells, MLRS and the like."....“Our doctors and paramedics are risking their lives because they actually work in the epicenter, where artillery, hail, mortars and cluster munitions are constantly flying

❗️Serhii Haidai, the Head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration: "Thanks to the skill of the Ukrainian military on the battlefield and the work of artillerymen in destroying enemy ammunition depots, the Luhansk region is still holding on. The number of attacks and shelling has decreased, the invaders are almost powerless without their artillery”

🗣Petro Andriushchenko, an Adviser to the City’s Mayor: The Russians have practically finished filtering people in Mariupol, arrested everyone who "should" be arrested. About 10,000 Mariupol residents are held in prisons.

⚡️The Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed the command post of the Russian National Guard in the occupied Kherson region — Serhii Bratchuk, the spokesman of the Head of the Odesa Regional Military Administration, confirmed

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⚡️ Institute for the Study of War: Russia likely intensifying attacks near Bakhmut, seeking to cut off city.

⚡️ Ukraine liberates Ivanivka village in Kherson Oblast.

video from de-occupied Ivanivka m.facebook.com/watch/?v=450709463540550&_rdr

And it has nothing to do with Ukraine but jsut for sheer joy look at this!

twitter.com/TansuYegen/status/1546389003389247489

Latest from Lawrence Freedman: "Time for the Russian Army to take stock"

samf.substack.com/p/time-for-the-russian-army-to-take?s=w&utm_medium=email

@Ijsbear · Today 08:46
And it has nothing to do with Ukraine but jsut for sheer joy look at this!
twitter.com/TansuYegen/status/1546389003389247489

Ijsbear, how wonderful. Sentient beings wouldn’t you say. once and for all? Thank you.

@MagicFox · Today 09:54
Latest from Lawrence Freedman: "Time for the Russian Army to take stock"

samf.substack.com/p/time-for-the-russian-army-to-take?s=w&utm_medium=email

Thank you. That does seem to credibly suggest that Ukraine will have been making a difference in weakening the Russian forces, and is likely to continue to do so, in spite of Putin having said Russia had only just started.

Nikolai Sokov thinks we're looking at 15-20 years of Cold War stifle conflict and brinkmanship. It's a depressing forecast, all this empire building feels so regressive.

twitter.com/sokovnikolai/status/1546424067758120960?s=21&t=QTKAONF6Y4QDs3r6pPxU4Q

Style not stifle, though stifle applies too!

@MagicFox thanks for the link.

"In recent wars, up to this one, they have served Putin well. The revitalization and modernization of the military has been a feature of his leadership and features heavily in the symbolism of the Russian state. These wars have provided a showcase for the Russian arms industry, whose customers may now be a tad concerned that not all systems are performing quite as advertised. This war, thus far, has been far more difficult. The military has suffered heavy losses at the hands of a supposedly inferior state. Its ability to reconstitute, at least in the short-term, is limited. Even in the best-case scenario from their perspective they will have to provide the troops for an occupying army that can expect to be harassed and ambushed for the indefinite future.

If they can still find ways to advance and keep Ukraine on the back foot then they will carry on. But should a time come when the positions have been reversed and retreats are becoming routine, then the high command will have to ask what losses are acceptable to maintain its honour and that of Putin, and how much of its future should be mortgaged in the Donbas. Of course whatever happens in this war Russia will still have a large military establishment, and will remain a nuclear power, but in the worst case this will be composed largely of depleted and demoralized units with vintage equipment which they are unable to replace over the next few years.

The Russian military has shown that it is ready to withdraw from beleaguered positions
– most seriously when it gave up on Kyiv and most recently, when it abandoned Snake Island. Giving up on all of Ukraine would be a far more significant step, and no doubt this will be resisted for as long as possible. They may even hope that withdrawal can be managed with some dignity as part of a negotiated settlement.

The point of my stress on the threat posed to the institution of the Russian military is that it redefines the challenge facing Ukraine. It is not necessary to think in terms of pushing Russian forces right back to their own border, although some pushing will be required, but to concentrate on continuing to undermine the capabilities and reputation of the Russian military, and consequentially their role in the Russian state."

Whilst there are doubts that Ukraine can push Russia back from its borders, Ukraine may not have to go that far. They only need to stress Russia's military to the point when it makes the unilateral decision (dressed up however it wishes) to withdraw, like it did from Kyiv and Snake Island.

This is my (uninformed) hope, for civilians in occupied areas as much as anything.

It's just gorgeous isn't it?

in other news, some Kaliningraders are going to have a bit of trouble getting Vodka.

NEXTA
@nexta_tv
·
1h
#Lithuania has expanded restrictions on the transit of goods through its territory to #Kaliningrad, Reuters reports.

As of today, cement, timber, alcohol and alcohol-based industrial chemicals are banned, a #Lithuanian customs official said.

The Russian State Duma is holding an emergency session on the 15th July but nobody knows why at the moment. Some suggestion general mobilisation. Russia putting out statements about US plotting attacks in Russia from ukraine

@Ijsbear There will be riots in Kaliningrad Oblast

I wonder by taking such a strong stance against Russia, are Lithuania (brave people) trying to draw Russia's war onto NATO soil, lighting the tinder box.

Lithuania may well be taking the risk of being sacrificed by NATO, seeing how the EU has tried to clarify the sanctions.

Does Russia see this as a trap?

If Russia orders a general mobilisation, I assume it is a sign that Putin's regime is 'betting the house'. Their military position in Ukraine in terms of manpower could be more precarious than thought. I hope Russia does not do that though, the cost in more lives would be catastrophic.

Strange that, for a special operation that hasn't been got started.

Wtf?!

Their military position in Ukraine in terms of manpower could be more precarious than thought.

Their manpower position seems to be parlous. They are taking prisoners out of prisons, forcing men from occupied areas to fight, trying to recruit all the mercenaries they can and promising enormous financial and to a degree status bonuses.

Can't see that there is anywhere else for them to go except to call a general mobilization.

If that happens it'll be a big escalation and the question will be what the US and NATO chooses to do. The three other hot spots to watch are indeed lithuania, Belorus and Kazakhstan. And ofc Taiwan ...

Personally I hope that NATO will take the field if Russia calls a general mobilization. I do wonder just how much is left in the Western armories though. Russia has immense stocks of missiles etc.

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🔺 The Armed Forces of Ukraine annihilated a Russian colonel, ex-commander of the Sevastopol Marine Brigade

Yesterday, during the shelling of one of the Russian headquarters by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a Russian colonel, the chief of staff — deputy commander of the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division of the Russian Ground Forces, was annihilated.

A rare comment on Ukr losses

Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
@IAPonomarenko
·
5m
Some 10,000 Ukrainian servicemembers KIA (this says roughly 30,000 wounded), some 7,200 missing in action, most of them POWs now.

That’s the price.