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Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

1000 replies

MagicFox · 24/06/2022 11:38

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

OP posts:
Thread gallery
74
Hillsmakeyoustrong · 09/07/2022 23:11

The people I support are the people that @Ijsbear is generously hosting. The link to their Walter Report interview was posted here some days ago but it is 2.5hrs long!! So, in a nutshell, our understanding, is that the only way out is via Crimea and then Russia. This has been the case for some weeks since exiting via Ukrainian controlled territories were too close to the frontlines and involved going through 30(?) russian checkpoints. Our friends left in May when over 50% of the population had already evacuated and so they would be considered relatively late in leaving. They went through two Russian filtration camps, in Crimea and at the Latvian border, and they said it was petrifying. Many fellow travellers were not allowed to travel on. They have tried to get more people to leave this weekend but noone us daring to attempt it and we think the reality is that it is too late.

I have not read it but I will. Our friends were asked what they thought about conceding to Russia during their interview and they said they would not. Ukraine has been under Russian attack since the end of the second world war and that any concession would not only be wrong but also seen as weakness.

@Ijsbear please add to or amend!

TiddyTidTwo · 09/07/2022 23:21

I've been listening to the Walter Report on Twitter all along. It's the place to go

MagicFox · 10/07/2022 08:59

Mick Ryan: "More than four months have passed since the beginning of the Russian invasion of #Ukraine. During the war, Russian and Ukrainian strategy has evolved. Today, an update on Russia’s #strategy in Ukraine..."

twitter.com/warinthefuture/status/1546039360973185024?s=21&t=GmeOFwi0bSQ0VEhVinb3Gg

OP posts:
notimagain · 10/07/2022 09:04

UK MoD Press Release on the subject of the training of Ukraine military personnel in the UK:

www.gov.uk/government/news/defence-secretary-ben-wallace-visits-armed-forces-of-ukraine-as-training-programme-starts-across-the-uk

Ijsbear · 10/07/2022 10:35

I think you summed it up well hills

Just to relink the very long report (the story of our guests is mostly in the 45 mins)

I think the thing to do now for residents is to do the best they can to store water, food and medicine and to find (or make a makeshift) bomb shelter.

The stress everyone is under is appalling. Life goes on, they go to the market, they pet their cats but the underlying stress is huge. These are not people who will ever take safety for granted again.


ISW

Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful assaults northwest of Slovyansk and conducted offensive operations east of Siversk from the Lysychansk area.

Russian forces continued localized attacks northwest of Kharkiv City, likely in an effort to defend Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the area.

Russian forces continue to face personnel and equipment shortages, relying on old armored personnel carriers and launching new recruitment campaigns.

Russian forces continued to set conditions for the annexation of Donbas, Kharkiv Oblast, and southern Ukraine.

The Kremlin has likely used a leaked letter from mothers demanding the ban of journalist activity on the frontlines to promote self-censorship among pro-Russian milbloggers and war correspondents

The Kremlin faces challenges directly censoring pro-Russian milbloggers and war correspondents but will likely continue to look for opportunities to promote self-censorship.

Russian-backed occupation authorities in Kharkiv Oblast stated that Kharkiv Oblast is an “inalienable part of Russian land,” indicating that the Kremlin likely intends to annex part or all of Kharkiv Oblast.[1]

+++

Kyiv Indep.

⚡️ UK Defense Ministry: Training programme for Ukrainian soldiers begins in UK.
The U.K.-led military programme will reportedly train up to 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers over the next few months.
[GOOD! tho an open acknowledgement of how long this is going to drag on :( ]

⚡️Liberation of Snake Island eases navigation from Danube River to Black Sea.
According to the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority, ships are now allowed to use the Danube-Black Sea Canal in the Danube Delta

⚡️Minister Ukraine may be admitted to Council of Europe Development Bank under shortened procedure.
According to the Minister for Communities and Territories Development Oleksiy Chernyshov, the Council of Europe Development Bank decided that Ukraine may acquire its membership under special conditions. The Bank also decided to provide 465 million euros in loans to support Ukrainian refugees in Europe.

⚡️Congresswoman Spartz says Zelensky 'must address the Yermak issue.'
U.S. Representative Victoria Spartz, who is originally from Ukraine, published on July 9 several “serious allegations” against President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak.

Investigators destroy case files linked to pro-Kremlin politicians amid Russian invasion (kyivindependent.com/national/state-investigation-bureau-destroys-case-files-linked-to-pro-kremlin-politicians)
Ukraine’s State Investigation Bureau destroyed secret materials in several major criminal investigations immediately after Russia launched its all-out invasion on Feb. 24, the Prosecutor General’s Office said.
The case files are linked to several pro-Kremlin politicians, and their destruction prompted speculation that treason or corruption is involved.
"There are two versions. Either they went crazy because they were scared, or there was a plot to take advantage of the situation," Sergii Gorbatuk, a former top investigator, told the Kyiv Independent in a reference to the Russian invasion. "I favor the second version."

[Recently there have been a lot of murmurings of treason and selling out to the Russians. Corruption is a big problem in Ukraine, as elsewhere, and with such close links to Russia (ive seen 40% Ukrainians have relatives in Russia quoted) there will be some who believe in what they are doing too. I wonder if this has anything to do with the changes of Ambassadors yesterday]

⚡️ Russia continues covert mobilization campaign.
According to Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, over 22,000 vacancies have been advertised in Russia calling for military personnel, including snipers, gunners, drivers, medical instructors, and other experts

⚡️ Der Spiegel: New ammunition supplier for Germany may solve issues with arms delivery to Ukraine.
The German government has reportedly sourced an ammunition manufacturer in Norway for Gepard anti-aircraft systems, Der Spiegel reports, citing German government sources. As a result, the provision of such systems to Ukraine should not be an issue going forward. [Switzerland refused permission for the ammo to go to Ukraine. I do mildly wish that Switzerland itself could be invaded and find out what it's like to fight for your country's survival]

⚡️ Canada intends to impose additional sanctions on Russia’s energy sector.

⚡️ Defense Minister: Ukraine needs to develop its air defense system. [calls recently have been for air def. systems]

⚡️ Canada to release Nord Stream 1 turbine to Germany.
Canadian Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson announced on July 9 that Canada will return a repaired Russian turbine to Germany that Russia considers necessary for the supply of natural gas to Europe.

⚡️ Delfi: Russia, Belarus want to recruit Latvian officials. Russia reportedly wants to obtain key intelligence that would be of use should the war in Ukraine escalate into a wider military conflict.

RFE/RL: Russian forces ‘blackmail’ parents to send children to pro-Russian schools. (this was previously reported - send your kids to Russian school or we will take them away from you)

+++

UkraineNOW

The Armed Forces of Ukraine in Luhansk region has defeated a Russian convoy, which included a dozen of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles

⚡️ Ukrainians have collected 400 million UAH (nearly $136,000) in a week for the Drone Army from the UNITED24 project

📸 Moldy bread and shovels were delivered to the temporarily occupied Mariupol as humanitarian aid from the Tula region of the Russian Federation

🇩🇪 Germany has approved the largest renewable energy expansion plan in history
In an effort to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels and meet climate goals, Germany has approved a legislative package that is considered the largest expansion of renewable energy in the country's history.
The new goal is 80% of renewable energy by 2030.

📣 The United States is discussing the possible integration of its air defense systems with the systems of the countries of the Middle East
Iran's Foreign Ministry said plans by the US and Israel for a joint defense deal with Arab states to counter the threat posed by Iranian drones and missiles would only increase regional tensions.

📌 US President Joe Biden said his trip to Saudi Arabia plays an important role in Washington's confrontation with Moscow and Beijing against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. It is reported by The Washington Post. The Middle East tour of the head of the White House will take place July 13-16.

⚡️ EU builds bunker for secret talks without Russian spies – EUobserver
Such premises will cost 8 million euros. This safe place will be in Brussels, where the meetings will take place without Russian spies. The room will be disconnected from the internet.

☑️ The Polish Parliament voted to ratify the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO

Ukraine Invasion: Part 28
Ukraine Invasion: Part 28
Ijsbear · 10/07/2022 12:17

Fuat
@lilygrutcher
·
13h
Russian source confirms at least 8 big Russian armo depots have been completely destroyed by Ukrainian HIMARS in the last two weeks.

thereisonlyoneofme · 10/07/2022 12:21

Ive read that the Russians are burning the crops and Ukraine are conscripting more men.

MagicFox · 10/07/2022 13:32

Thread with viewpoints from the other side that I thought you'd all be interested in and that we should probably keep abreast of: twitter.com/rwapodcast/status/1546081510914154496?s=21&t=HCJfErocxs1DgZIIc3sdyA

OP posts:
minsmum · 10/07/2022 14:13

mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1546082474362654720 Russians bombed soldiers from Donetsk in last as they were withdrawing from the frontline

ScrollingLeaves · 10/07/2022 14:30

@notimagain · Today 09:04
\UK MoD Press Release on the subject of the training of Ukraine military personnel in the UK:

www.gov.uk/government/news/defence-secretary-ben-wallace-visits-armed-forces-of-ukraine-as-training-programme-starts-across-the-uk

That is very good to hear. What a difference for new recruits to get this basic training rather than being thrown in to battles unprepared, and having to work it out as they go along. Just hearing that they will get first aid training, and will get to keep their kit and safety equipment is comforting, given so many odds are against them as it is, let alone without this.

It is great they are taught the rules of war too ( if that has the moral meaning I am assuming).

ScrollingLeaves · 10/07/2022 14:31

@thereisonlyoneofme · Today 12:21
Ive read that the Russians are burning the crops and Ukraine are conscripting more men

This was reported on Radio 4 news yesterday. They are dropping incendiary bombs on the fields.

MMBaranova · 10/07/2022 17:41

Getting out from Russian occupied areas.

6-8 weeks or so ago it was generally possible to get through to Ukrainian held areas through Kherson oblast minor roads. You needed transport and it might be a man with a van paid to do it or your own vehicle. Russian checkpoints might wave you through or accept a transit bribe. Or you might be shot.

Now as mentioned the way out is through Russia, if you can make it all the way. The front lines are more heavily monitored and the Ukrainian forces have been gaining some ground in the rural areas. The previous routes just aren't available. 'Filtration' has risks, indignities, random costs and stating you are not really of the nationality you are.

All above is so far as I understand it. The relatives south of the river toyed with the first option and seem resolute in not wanting the second. So, so far as they can tell and despite messages from Ukraine sources that they are possibly close to military targets, they are staying put and hoping for a liberation that I think unlikely.

Many others locally seem to have left.

I try to ponder what I would have done. It's not easy. Right now I'd try to blag my way out via Crimea. In another life I'd be wondering whether to have a break along the coast in or near Yalta. Wonderful area. or was.

RedToothBrush · 10/07/2022 18:56

Some talk today that Johnson will stand down from parliament and take on the role of special envoy to Ukraine over the war to liase between the west and Kyiv.

This actually might not be the worst role for him.

I can think of plenty that are much more dire.

blueshoes · 10/07/2022 19:05

MagicFox · 24/06/2022 11:38

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

@MMBaranova nice to have you back.

Those are impossible choices. I would hate the idea of going through filtration. What 'indignities' might these be. Or be detained and then tortured, I presume is also part of the risk.

Could the relatives move somewhere further away from military targets? Sorry, I appreciate their choices are very conscribed and they have probably thought of everything and more. I do hope they are liberated by Ukraine forces.

At the back of my mind, I also have Ijsbear's link to this article that Kherson is going to come in for it badly from Ukrainian forces

wartranslated.com/i-spoke-to-people-who-left-kherson-shortly-before-the-invasion-here-is-what-they-said/

Do you have any thoughts on that?

blueshoes · 10/07/2022 19:07

RedToothBrush · 10/07/2022 18:56

Some talk today that Johnson will stand down from parliament and take on the role of special envoy to Ukraine over the war to liase between the west and Kyiv.

This actually might not be the worst role for him.

I can think of plenty that are much more dire.

@RedToothBrush Boris would be great in the role, for Ukraine morale more than anything. I would support that. I can also see Boris lapping it up.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 10/07/2022 19:20

@MMBaranova that was a brilliant summary. I think our friends (who left about 6 weeks ago) missed the window. Literally a few days before their departure, the Russian military opened fire on a civilian convoy attempting to leave via the Ukrainian held territories. I think a lot of people decided then Crimea was the only viable route. The minor roads, which were also used to get aid and medicines in for a time, also closed down one by one.

Yes indignities of all sorts and exalting Putin await those who go through filtration. Then if you're allowed through, and not on The List, travelling through Russia not knowing if you'll get out is also a long and anxious journey. Moscow's skies are filled with circling helicopters. Cameras and police everywhere. Stifling and oppressive.

I sincerely hope your family's hopes are soon realised. A liberated Kherson. They stand and hope with many others who will not leave and it is not entirely fear that keeps them rooted, it is also hope. Can I ask, why do you think liberation will not come? What do you think will be the outcome? Either in the short or long term?

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 10/07/2022 19:24

@RedToothBrush that will suit him. And Ukraine. It's very jammy he gets to exit into such a role that is high profile and likely to attract strong public support.

notimagain · 10/07/2022 19:24

RedToothBrush · 10/07/2022 18:56

Some talk today that Johnson will stand down from parliament and take on the role of special envoy to Ukraine over the war to liase between the west and Kyiv.

This actually might not be the worst role for him.

I can think of plenty that are much more dire.

Sorry but I'm not sure about his suitability for the role TBH ( same applies for the rumours about him and NATO).

Yes I'm sure some Brits and many Ukrainians like the idea very much but generally he's regarded as a very divisive character, not the hardest worker and inclined to go off piste and be careless with his comments..as for trust........

Maybe as a figurehead only with zero input, lots of fine wining and dining it might work, otherwise....

www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/10/how-boris-johnson-will-be-remembered-in-europe-brexit

Ijsbear · 10/07/2022 19:54

Reports of 12 senior officers being killed

As a result of the counter-battery attack on the Chernobaivka, 12 senior Russian officers (generals and colonels) were killed, several dozen pieces of equipment and an ammunition depot of the invaders were also destroyed

Not sure how reliable this is.

Beginning to hear rumours that the DUma will be reconvened and general mobilization called for, but that is really only rumours at this stage.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 10/07/2022 19:58

@notimagain

Maybe as a figurehead only with zero input, lots of fine wining and dining it might work, otherwise...

I agreed but then I saw this picture again. I think he should take a gap year with a circus or something.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 28
Ijsbear · 10/07/2022 20:15

Dear god, the corruption .. www.bbc.com/news/business-62057321

RedToothBrush · 10/07/2022 20:23

notimagain · 10/07/2022 19:24

Sorry but I'm not sure about his suitability for the role TBH ( same applies for the rumours about him and NATO).

Yes I'm sure some Brits and many Ukrainians like the idea very much but generally he's regarded as a very divisive character, not the hardest worker and inclined to go off piste and be careless with his comments..as for trust........

Maybe as a figurehead only with zero input, lots of fine wining and dining it might work, otherwise....

www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/10/how-boris-johnson-will-be-remembered-in-europe-brexit

Its largely a PR role. In that sense thats what his strength is. Love him or hate him.

The NATO role he would be wholly unsuited to. Because you actually have to do a job.

notimagain · 10/07/2022 20:49

@RedToothBrush

Its largely a PR role. In that sense thats what his strength is. Love him or hate him.

True, I guess it could work as long as his minders don't put him a position where he makes a speech promising anything or says something that drops anybody in the poo...(e.g. along the line of what happened to Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe)

The NATO role he would be wholly unsuited to. Because you actually have to do a job

Absolutely agree.

Ijsbear · 10/07/2022 21:07

Flash
@Flash43191300
·
18m
⚡️Volodymyr Zelenskyi ordered the military to de-occupy the coastal areas in the south, for this Ukraine is gathering millions of military forces, Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said in an interview with The Times

it looks like the push to remove the Russians from Kherson might be beginning.

PerkingFaintly · 10/07/2022 21:15

True, I guess it could work as long as his minders don't put him a position where he makes a speech promising anything or says something that drops anybody in the poo...(e.g. along the line of what happened to Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe)

This.

It would all look like it was going swimmingly for a couple of months while Johnson gladhanded and ate cake. Then he'd would open his trap to make an unforced error: tell a pointless deliberate lie or just invent shit on the hoof to cover his lack of prep. And the sky would fall in.

People could die.

Putin would point and laugh, and parade Johnson's lying around the place, claiming that all of Ukraine, the UK, the EU, NATO and, well, everyone not a Putin lapdog, is a liar.

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