Page 29 | Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

MagicFox · 2022-06-24T10:38:14+00:00

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

MMBaranova · 09/07/2022 11:14

>It’s despairing but we must remember where we thought we’d be at this point.

I had thought that the lines would be about where they are now and that Russia would have declared victory, oh... in May? But then, as I no doubt said a number of times, I'm not Putin.

Russian forces probably don't have it in them to do much more land grabbing, given interdiction by Ukrainian forces and troop replacement and calibre issues.

Where do things end up medium term? No idea.

Relatives on Ukrainian side of the line: fairly stoically getting on with things. There's fear that you might go out to do something and not come back (or not wake the next day) due to missiles. Students / younger adults are realising that the summer they once expected can't be as they hoped.

Relatives on Russian side of the line: situation grim. Ukrainian local governance persisted under occupation and then ebbed and now things just seem shambolic. There's more Ukrainian targeting of Russian units and facilities set back from the front. There is some sabotage. I don't know much more than that and what little else I know would be too outing.

Igotjelly · 09/07/2022 11:26

MMBaranova · 09/07/2022 11:14

>It’s despairing but we must remember where we thought we’d be at this point.

I had thought that the lines would be about where they are now and that Russia would have declared victory, oh... in May? But then, as I no doubt said a number of times, I'm not Putin.

Russian forces probably don't have it in them to do much more land grabbing, given interdiction by Ukrainian forces and troop replacement and calibre issues.

Where do things end up medium term? No idea.

Relatives on Ukrainian side of the line: fairly stoically getting on with things. There's fear that you might go out to do something and not come back (or not wake the next day) due to missiles. Students / younger adults are realising that the summer they once expected can't be as they hoped.

Relatives on Russian side of the line: situation grim. Ukrainian local governance persisted under occupation and then ebbed and now things just seem shambolic. There's more Ukrainian targeting of Russian units and facilities set back from the front. There is some sabotage. I don't know much more than that and what little else I know would be too outing.

your input has definitely been missed, such a unique and valuable perspective.

notimagain · 09/07/2022 11:27

@ScrollingLeaves

Currently five lessons: get there fast, survive once there, blunt enemy advance, raid lines of communications & quickly switch from defence to offence.
It upsets me to see this because those are five lessons learnt at Ukraine’s. expense I feel. Much though they achieved in these ways, they had to attempt it with too little.

I'm afraid that's how lessons have always been learnt in warfare.

MLRS really arrive safely and make a huge difference. Sorry to be ignorant, but If there are 12, does that mean there can be 12 targets then they are gone?

One for @Targuseasting I think but as I understand it "an MLRs" is the tracked launcher, so hopefully you would get multiple fire missions missions out of each unit long as their are reloads of rockets available.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M270_Multiple_Launch_Rocket_System

DuncinToffee · 09/07/2022 13:05

This is quite a read, msm exposed

twitter.com/ArbiterOfTweets/status/1545654587373326336?t=Wa4cgZmQD6pgeUYKT3LuBQ&s=19

Remember this "exclusive" story in the Daily Star about "general Pavel", who was supposedly "dragged out of retirement" by Putin and sent to Ukraine?

So yeah, turns out that's total bullshit.

@LotteLambrecht and I found out who's actually_ in this photo. Follow along!

1/

ScrollingLeaves · 09/07/2022 13:09

@ScrollingLeaves

Currently five lessons: get there fast, survive once there, blunt enemy advance, raid lines of communications & quickly switch from defence to offence.

“It upsets me to see this because those are five lessons learnt at Ukraine’s. expense I feel. Much though they achieved in these ways, they had to attempt it with too little.”

I'm afraid that's how lessons have always been learnt in warfare.

“MLRS really arrive safely and make a huge difference. Sorry to be ignorant, but If there are 12, does that mean there can be 12 targets then they are gone?”

One for @Targuseasting I think but as I understand it "an MLRs" is the tracked launcher, so hopefully you would get multiple fire missions missions out of each unit long as their are reloads of rockets available.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M270_Multiple_Launch_Rocket_System

Thank you notimagain

I hope Targuseasting comes back too sometime.

ScrollingLeaves · 09/07/2022 13:23

@DuncinToffee · Today 13:05
This is quite a read, msm exposed

twitter.com/ArbiterOfTweets/status/1545654587373326336?t=Wa4cgZmQD6pgeUYKT3LuBQ&s=19

Remember this "exclusive" story in the Daily Star about "general Pavel", who was supposedly "dragged out of retirement" by Putin and sent to Ukraine?

So yeah, turns out that's total bullshit.

@LotteLambrecht and I found out who's actually_ in this photo. Follow along!

Thank you, DuncinToffee. I had seen that story. This “post truth” world is extraordinary and deeply troubling.

What a brilliant bit of investigative work they did to root out this lie.

So the poor man has not been eating men who refuse conscription, or Ukrainians, for lunch, but spends his retirement celebrating the border guards and posting pictures of pancake recipes.

Igotjelly · 09/07/2022 13:38

Ben Wallace had decided not to run for party leader.

BewitchedBotheredandBewildered · 09/07/2022 14:00

Thanks again to all of you for these threads.

Ijsbear · 09/07/2022 14:32

Igotjelly · 09/07/2022 13:38

Ben Wallace had decided not to run for party leader.

Wise but I still thikn he was almost the best of the bad bunch

notimagain · 09/07/2022 14:37

Igotjelly · 09/07/2022 13:38

Ben Wallace had decided not to run for party leader.

Probably not a bad thing, he’s shaping up to be the best Secretary of State for Defence the UK has had in a long time…..for lots of reasons it might be a good thing if he stayed in that post.

Original poster

MagicFox · 09/07/2022 14:39

Agree re Ben Wallace. There are some mad contenders for PM though so let's hope somebody with some sense gets in

OP posts:

TiddyTidTwo · 09/07/2022 15:42

Agree @notimagain I'm disappointed but understand why he won't go for it.

What about Tom T?

Original poster

MagicFox · 09/07/2022 18:10

Er...there are some mad rumours on Twitter that Boris may stand down as PM to run as leader of the Tory party. Sounds mad, but technically he hasn't actually 'resigned' and, well, it's unpacked a bit in this thread:

twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1545783538582278149?s=21&t=a9JV1MVjVqYl1UnGst3Z5g

OP posts:

Igotjelly · 09/07/2022 18:20

MagicFox · 09/07/2022 18:10

Er...there are some mad rumours on Twitter that Boris may stand down as PM to run as leader of the Tory party. Sounds mad, but technically he hasn't actually 'resigned' and, well, it's unpacked a bit in this thread:

twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1545783538582278149?s=21&t=a9JV1MVjVqYl1UnGst3Z5g

Pointless venture, no one would vote for him. He’s a poisoned chalice.

Original poster

MagicFox · 09/07/2022 18:34

Indeed, it makes no sense! Surely this is gumph. And yet it seems to be being taken really seriously. It all feels like a parallel universe at the moment!

OP posts:

mids2019 · 09/07/2022 18:38

Women's Wimbledon winner is effectively Russian (parents from Moscow, grew up in Moscow and apparently still lives there). Should we have avoided the embarrassment of the Duchess of Cambridge having to congratulate her?

Ijsbear · 09/07/2022 19:19

what on earth ...?!

President Zelensky sacks Ukraine's ambassadors to Germany, India, Czech Republic, Hungary and Norway.

Original poster

MagicFox · 09/07/2022 19:25

Can't figure out what that's about either @Ijsbear - some are suggesting it's a normal cycle and the ambassadors are moving on to other roles in their govt but that doesn't square with the term 'sacking'. Is this a translation one?

OP posts:

ScrollingLeaves · 09/07/2022 19:26

@Ijsbear · Today 19:19
what on earth ...?!

President Zelensky sacks Ukraine's ambassadors to Germany, India, Czech Republic, Hungary and Norway.

There does not seem to be any explanation, but surely there must be one. It is extraordinary.

TiddyTidTwo · 09/07/2022 19:32

@Ijsbear

What?? Why?

Original poster

MagicFox · 09/07/2022 19:42

"Ukraine’s Implausible Theories of Victory
The Fantasy of Russian Defeat and the Case for Diplomacy"

www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-07-08/ukraines-implausible-theories-victory

OP posts:

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 09/07/2022 20:01

And, President Volodymyr Zelensky has fired the ambassadors to Bangladesh, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 09/07/2022 20:06

But from what I am reading it seems that many have been in their post for longer than is usual. So fired is possibly a bit dramatic.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 09/07/2022 20:47

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/09/ukraine-urges-people-of-kherson-and-zaporizhzhia-to-evacuate

The deoccupation of Kherson looms closer. It will be an essential victory for Ukraine to reclaim the city but I feel quite depressed about the death that will ensue.

ScrollingLeaves · 09/07/2022 22:22

@Hillsmakeyoustrong · Today 20:47
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/09/ukraine-urges-people-of-kherson-and-zaporizhzhia-to-evacuate

The deoccupation of Kherson looms closer. It will be an essential victory for Ukraine to reclaim the city but I feel quite depressed about the death that will ensue

They’ve been told to evacuate, but can they actually do that? Are the roads out all blocked like they have been elsewhere?

Hills, have you read the article, The Case for Diplomacy, MagicFox posted about how it would be best to negotiate a compromise with Russia sooner rather than later? If so, I wonder what you think the people you know would make of it? Or, what you do?