Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

[MagicFox]

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

Haha, I know! It's actually quite useful sometimes, the name is awful. It's an American account

Agreed and the Cold War had some extremely dangerous flash points, some of which are still not public knowledge.

One of our Ukrainian guests has given a 2 1/2 hour interview on the Walter Report. God, Kherson is apparently treated as a golden city by the Russian invaders and what's happening is -still- terrible :/

But there are villages nearby that have been literally razed to the ground with all the inhabitants. Villages gone. Bucha is small compared to what's gone on in the East.

@Ijsbear · Today 22:01
One of our Ukrainian guests has given a 2 1/2 hour interview on the Walter Report. God, Kherson is apparently treated as a golden city by the Russian invaders and what's happening is -still- terrible

But there are villages nearby that have been literally razed to the ground with all the inhabitants. Villages gone. Bucha is small compared to what's gone on in the East.

We are just not hearing about it.

Is your guest’s interview something anyone can listen to or watch? I am not sure what The Walter Report is.

Latest Lawrence Freedman piece on where we are right now on the ground: samf.substack.com/p/can-ukraine-win?s=r&utm_medium=email

@ScrollingLeaves They should be producing a link with the interview, they said, tho I cant see it on the site at the moment. When it is Ill set it here =)

Our guest was very careful about the security of his family back in Kherson so he gave very little identifiable info away. There was quite a lot more he could have said, none of it pleasant.

this is the Walter Report twitter.com/walter_report

Thanks for that link @MagicFox

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces seized the remaining territory between Lysychansk and Luhansk Oblast’s administrative borders on July 3.

Russian forces launched assaults northeast of Bakhmut and north of Slovyansk but did not secure new territorial gains.

Russian forces conducted extensive artillery attacks in the western part of the Southern Axis likely to disrupt Ukrainian counteroffensives.

The Kremlin continued to set conditions for potential Russian annexation of proxy republics.

Ukrainian partisans reportedly derailed a Russian armored train carrying ammunition near Melitopol on July 2.

+++

The Kyiv Independent, [04/07/2022 01:31]
⚡️ UK to host 2023 Ukraine Recovery Conference.
The U.K. will reportedly host the next Ukraine Recovery Conference, which will focus on supporting Ukraine to recover from the damage caused by Russia’s full-scale war.

⚡️ Zelensky: At least 89 Ukrainian athletes, coaches killed since Feb. 24.

⚡️ General Staff: Russia transports ammunition from Crimea to Kherson Oblast.
Ukraine’s General Staff reported on July 4 that Russian forces transported 17 cars of ammunition from Russian-occupied Crimea to a railway station in Myrne, Kherson Oblast.
In the direction of Kramatorsk, Russian forces crossed the Siversky Donets River and set up positions surrounding Lysychansk and Bilohorivka.

⚡️ Reuters: European Investment Bank aims to raise 100 billion euros for Ukraine.

+++

UkraineNOW

💸 Ukraine spends 130 billion UAH monthly to support its Armed Forces, according to the Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

A diver of hydraulic workshop of Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant died from injuries suffered as a result of tortures inflicted by the Russian soldiers

❗️The Russian troops are targeting military and civil infrastructure facilities in Mykolaiv Region to reduce offensive capacity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, reports the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the evening communique.

🇮🇩 1 million USD was raised in Poland to purchase Bayraktar UAV for Ukraine. The campaign is actively supported by Polish mass media, filming news reports about it and encouraging Polish citizens to donate their money for the Bayraktar.

⚡️ Two high-ranking Russian commanders are responsible for the military actions in the Lysychansk district — meaning that Putin does not trust junior officers and attaches great importance to the capture of the Luhansk region border, — ISW analysts

📣 In the seventh sanctions package, we want to see a complete disconnection of Russian banks from SWIFT — Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba [several important banks are still part of the SWIFT system]

💬 Australia promises Putin an unfriendly reception at the G20 summit
At the same time, Prime Minister of Australia Anthony Albanese is not sure that the Russian president will decide to come to the meeting.
"He will get the kind of reception he deserves - an unfriendly one: he does not respect the rule of law in the world and does not behave according to the values of this world," Albanese said.

"Yes, Nato has a new vitality. But its united front could collapse when it has to deal with Russia"

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/03/yes-nato-has-a-new-vitality-but-its-united-front-could-collapse-when-it-has-to-deal-with-russia?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

@Ijsbear bear · Today 08:22
@ScrollingLeaves They should be producing a link with the interview, they said, tho I cant see it on the site at the moment. When it is Ill set it here =)

Our guest was very careful about the security of his family back in Kherson so he gave very little identifiable info away. There was quite a lot more he could have said, none of it pleasant.

this is the Walter Report twitter.com/walter_report

Thank you, and thank you for your key takeaways today.

@Ijsbear · Today 08:22
In the seventh sanctions package, we want to see a complete disconnection of Russian banks from SWIFT — Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba [several important banks are still part of the SWIFT system

We keep hearing of sanctions being added, which makes it seem they were not really very comprehensive sanctions in the first place.

A diver of hydraulic workshop of Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant died from injuries suffered as a result of tortures inflicted by the Russian soldiers

I wonder how many other workers have been left badly injured? It seems moronic, not to say evil and British, to do this to the very people who know how to run the power plant.

Zelensky: At least 89 Ukrainian athletes, coaches killed since Feb. 24.
The talents of a generation are being wiped out. It is a tragedy.

not British, brutish

I wonder how many other workers have been left badly injured? It seems moronic, not to say evil and British, to do this to the very people who know how to run the power plant.

Are you sure you meant to say exactly that?

giggling

@MagicFox MagicFox · Today 11:57
"Yes, Nato has a new vitality. But its united front could collapse when it has to deal with Russia"

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/03/yes-nato-has-a-new-vitality-but-its-united-front-could-collapse-when-it-has-to-deal-with-russia?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

That is a salutary article, MagicFox.
France,Germany and Spain* in particular cannot just rely on the US and not even pay their share. Americans will not stand for it in the end. It probably is right to to say that if Moscow offers a ceasefire on their terms the apparent European unity will dissolve.

*I can’t remember who posted it, but recently there was a chart on here showing each country’s contribution from their GDP. It was a surprise to see how high Greece’s is given they are poor.

Can't argue with the percentages as shown, question is how much spend actually ends up producing an effect at the frontline and how much ends up in the pockets of certain companies...

www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.php?country1=united-kingdom&country2=france

@notimagain · Today 14:31
Can't argue with the percentages as shown, question is how much spend actually ends up producing an effect at the frontline and how much ends up in the pockets of certain companies...

www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.php?country1=united-kingdom&country2=france

Thank you for that, notimagain. not that it had much meaning for me as a lack any military knowledge.

One surprise seems to be that France has a better navy than the U.K. Is that right? Why no more ruling the waves?

@Ijsbear · Today 14:09
I wonder how many other workers have been left badly injured? It seems moronic, not to say evil and British, to do this to the very people who know how to run the power plant.

Are you sure you meant to say exactly that?
giggling

brutish!

It was just such a funny one scrolling :D

The Kherson report from our temporary family

It’s one of those you can show anything with numbers things and I’m certainly not brave enough to pass judgement on the maritime side of things…🤐

And speaking of military spending, I was agog to read this:

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/03/troop-cuts-will-leave-army-breaking-point-says-lord-dannatt/

Now, with a belligerent Russia and war in Europe, the UK is going to cut 10,000 troops from the British Army? It's this kind of thing that gives fuel to the narrative that most of NATO is just looking to coast behind the US militarily.

Is the 10,000 cut because the army has been understrength for years, so it is just pragmatic to change the manning figure to the number of soldiers there actually are?

Speaking of Lord Dannatt. Heres an interview from Sky News from Sunday just gone. Talking about the above.

YouTube - Lord Dannatt interview

Is the 10,000 cut because the army has been understrength for years, so it is just pragmatic to change the manning figure to the number of soldiers there actually are?

Everything I’ve read states it is a genuine cut, been in the pipeline for some months.

Most frequently justified by “because cyber, colour of woo smart technologies,” armies need to be a different shape these days.

Wonder if anybody has told the Ukrainian or Russian PBI (I’ll let people look that one up) they are surplus to requirements in modern wars.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk/british-army-to-be-cut-by-10000-troops/

Crowdfunding at its best.
Well done to everyone who donated.

Lithuanian MOD
Lithuanian_MoD
The Bayraktar "Vanagas" is already in Lithuania. The combat drone is armed and will be handed over to Ukrainian fighters as soon as possible.

The people of Lithuania have raised funds to buy a Bayraktar TB2 for Ukraine. Upon learning this Bayraktar donated it free of charge.

Twitter Link - Lithuanian MOD

So I have done some reading, the cut is that announced by the defence secretary in March 2021 with a target for the army to be 72500 trained soldiers by 2025.
In October 2021 the number of trained soldiers was 77526 (and interestingly that number has gone up somewhat in recent years). So I think if I understand it correctly the 10,000 cut is in the target strength, which means a smaller cut in the actual number of trained soldiers as the Army has been consistently understrength for many years.

The Head of the British Army, General Sir Patrick Sanders has stated the UK and its allies face their "1937 moment" following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The Chief of the General Staff stressed the importance of being prepared for all eventualities in the years ahead.

Yet we’re cutting Army personnel. We shouldn’t be cutting the numbers. We should be boosting the numbers.

YouTube - SkyNews - British Army Chief press conference (last week)

My worry would be that historically the army/RAF/Navy is almost always understrength, ..running below declared establishment level is almost done as a matter of course, matter of policy…it certainly happened when I was “in”.

So if you cut the target size of the service of your choice to more closely reflect real numbers for a sort period then all it really does is give a leading politician a chance to say: “Hey look, we are fully established and have saved money”

My worry would be that give it a year or two and some genius in the treasury will be asking why can’t personnel numbers be cut further because the service has managed to operate whilst under established in the past, so why not now?

…and so the ratcheting down in the size of HM Forces will continue.