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Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

1000 replies

MagicFox · 24/06/2022 11:38

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

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ScrollingLeaves · 03/07/2022 14:47

@Yarnasaurus · Today 13:17
Thank you for sharing the Times article MagicFox posted.

It is what we knew already really, but it sets out the realities neatly. It is difficult not to inwardly despair.

@Ijsbear · Today 11:43
Thank you for the news roundup.

That is horrible about the mosque. But aren’t the Kadyyrovsky Muslims? Would they have done this to enrage other Muslims so they will go fight? Are they a good source for recruits?

ScrollingLeaves · 03/07/2022 14:49

@prettybird tybird · Today 14:21
That's an interesting and mostly fair article. However , using the "grudging contributions" from the Scottish and Welsh governments as evidence of waning Western support is unfair Confused. Defence is a reserved matter, there are no Barnett consequentials and, unlike the WM government, they have limited means to raise funds. The governments are legally required to have a balanced budget and are not allowed to run a deficit. Hmm

So the fact that they have contributed - albeit making it clear it's a one-off - is a sign of support not reluctance

Thank you for pointing that out. I wouldn’t have realised.

blueshoes · 03/07/2022 15:33

@Ijsbear thanks for the takeaways this morning.

Wsj has updates on the situation in Lysychansk,, Belgorod and Kursk (extracts below):

www.wsj.com/articles/russia-claims-control-of-luhansk-as-ukrainian-forces-retreat-from-lysychansk-11656851582?mod=hp_lead_pos8

"Russia Claims Control of Luhansk as Ukrainian Forces Retreat From Lysychansk
Moscow blames Ukraine for morning attacks, including a deadly cross-border strike in Belgorod
[July 3, 2022]

Russian forces have captured Lysychansk, the last major Ukrainian stronghold in Luhansk, effectively placing under Russian control the eastern region at the center of the war in recent months.

Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu [dammit, Shoigu is still around], told President Vladimir Putin on Sunday that Russian forces, together with militia from the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic, had established full control over Luhansk, Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported.

A Ukrainian official confirmed that their troops were withdrawing from Lysychansk to avoid being surrounded.

Russia’s declared capture of Luhansk, after months of grueling battle, signals a victory for Moscow and demonstrates how the tide of the war has shifted since March.

Russian defense officials said the total area captured in recent days was 182 square kilometers, around 70 square miles. Russia would likely next push toward Siversk, Slovyansk and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

“They are suffering significant losses, but they are stubbornly advancing,” Serhiy Haidai, the Ukrainian governor of Luhansk, wrote on Telegram Sunday. He disputed the claim that Russia had complete control of Luhansk, saying that a Russian attack on Bilohorivka, a small settlement a few miles from Lysychansk, had been repulsed.

The Ukrainian forces’ retreat from Lysychansk is in line with the strategy they have adopted in recent weeks of holding on as long as possible in the hopes of bleeding Russian forces, then carrying out fighting withdrawals.

Mr. Haidai said the assault on Lysychansk had been even more brutal than the weeks long battle for Severodonetsk, which left that city almost entirely destroyed.

“If in Severodonetsk there were surviving houses and administrative buildings during a month of street fighting, then in Lysychansk the same administrative buildings were completely destroyed in a short period of time,” Mr. Haidai wrote on Telegram on Sunday.

The announcement of the capture of Lysychansk came as Russia blamed Ukraine for several strikes early Sunday morning, including one deadly attack across the border.
...

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Lt. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said Ukrainian forces had carried out a deliberate strike using Tochka-U ballistic missiles with cluster munitions and drones on residential areas in Russia’s western regions of Belgorod and Kursk.

Gen. Konashenkov told a briefing that Russian air defenses shot down two Ukrainian drones that were aiming to strike Kursk before they could inflict any casualties.

Russian air-defense systems also destroyed three Tochka-U ballistic missiles with cluster warheads that he said were launched at residential areas of Belgorod. Wreckage of one of the missiles fell on a residential building in the city, he said.

Vyacheslav Gladkov, Belgorod’s governor, said at least four people were killed.
Some 50 buildings were damaged, including apartment blocks and private residential homes, Mr. Gladkov said.

Ukrainian officials didn’t immediately comment on the strikes in Belgorod and Kursk. In the past, they have denied responsibility for attacks in Russian territory, including the April blast at the Belgorod oil depot."

I am not sure why Russia would want to do a false flag attack on Belgorod and Kursk. Surely they don't need excuses to inflict any more maximal damage on Ukraine, which they are already doing every single day without the need for false flag attacks. Is Russia trying to covertly mobilise Russians in Belgorod?

I hope it is not Ukraine. Why would Ukraine target residential buildings? Or maybe they were aiming at something else and it was collateral damage.

Ijsbear · 03/07/2022 16:12

That is horrible about the mosque. But aren’t the Kadyyrovsky Muslims? Would they have done this to enrage other Muslims so they will go fight? Are they a good source for recruits?

In the war in the former Yugoslavia there was a case of probably the Bosnians firing on their own market with a lot of deaths and shouting it was the other side, in order to garner sympathy.

Putin is generally regarded as having ensured that Moscow residential flats were bombed by the Secret Service in the guise of Chechen separatists, in order to provoke sympathy for a war there.

it happens, especially with ruthless regimes.

ScrollingLeaves · 03/07/2022 17:03

To tell the truth I find the false flag idea unsettling because it is hard to believe people would do this to their own, which ever side has apparently done it.

I can see Belgorod might have seemed worth it by the Russians in order to make America even more wary of giving Ukraine long range missiles. But I still get that sense of doubt and perplexity.

Forensic experts must almost never get a chance to examine debris to try to find out who carried out an attack. You would also need to know what arms each side had had, and even then they might have been found or captured from the opposing side then used for the attack.

ScrollingLeaves · 03/07/2022 17:10

More details about the Belgorod strike
Why shouldn’t Ukraine hit a place like this near the border, given the constant attacks from Russia on Ukcraine? One worry might be though putting America off giving long range missiles.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/3/explosions-reported-in-the-russian-city-of-belgorod-3-dead

notimagain · 03/07/2022 17:13

Forensic experts must almost never get a chance to examine debris to try to find out who carried out an attack. You would also need to know what arms each side had had, and even then they might have been found or captured from the opposing side then used for the attack.

With respect to the possible false flag attack(s) reported in the last few hours both Russia and Ukraine have Tochka-U's (SS-21s) in their inventory....

notimagain · 03/07/2022 17:19

. Just to add...It's not completely out of the question our American friends might know who fired what and where but will they say?

MagicFox · 03/07/2022 17:21

Reuters reporting "Ukrainian ambassador to Turkey says Turkish customs have stopped a Russian ship carrying a Ukrainian shipment of grain."

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MagicFox · 03/07/2022 17:21

Good to see turkey on the right side here though it will inflame tensions between turkey and Moscow

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Hillsmakeyoustrong · 03/07/2022 18:07

I was somewhat heartened to read this..

At the rate of advance seen in June (+0.3% of Ukraine’s territory) it would take Russia nearly 22 years to completely seize the rest of the country (80% now)
It’s just for you to understand their results compared to their goals at this point.

Illia Ponomarenko Twitter. (Ukrainian War Journalist)

MagicFox · 03/07/2022 18:12

I wonder if we'll ever live in an era of a peace dividend again

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blueshoes · 03/07/2022 18:15

Russia not only has to seize Ukrainian territory, they also have to hold it. I cannot see that the Ukrainian people (along with support from their neighbours and allies) will make the latter easy for Russia.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 03/07/2022 19:04

@MagicFox it doesn't feel like it does it.

@blueshoes agree. Just the headlines are very misleading around the so called Russian advances. I don't want to be unreal about Ukraine's dire situation but Russia is not winning this war.

Igotjelly · 03/07/2022 19:33

@MagicFox i imagine those who lived under Nazi occupation or who saw men leave the UK to fight alongside the allies felt the same yet following WW2 we saw one of the longest periods of stability in history. Everything goes in cycles and I firmly believe there will be peace again.

katem98 · 03/07/2022 19:35

Igotjelly · 03/07/2022 19:33

@MagicFox i imagine those who lived under Nazi occupation or who saw men leave the UK to fight alongside the allies felt the same yet following WW2 we saw one of the longest periods of stability in history. Everything goes in cycles and I firmly believe there will be peace again.

I love this.

MagicFox · 03/07/2022 19:41

I love that too Jelly. Here's to hope Wine

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notimagain · 03/07/2022 20:26

Trouble with the era of the Peace Dividend was that many in the west just saw it as money being released from defence budgets and stopped paying attention to what was going on in the east. Europe got away with it for a while but here we are.

Certainly the post WW2 stability in Europe mentioned upthread wasn't a given, an inevitable result of 8th May 1945, it was maintained for decades by a lot of people in armed Forces various constantly working and training ( and sometimes being killed doing so).

I do think we can get stability back, at least in Europe, but I think any idea of another peace dividends is long gone.

MagicFox · 03/07/2022 20:44

Fire at the capital towers in central Moscow?! twitter.com/endgameww3/status/1543676718686281733?s=21&t=oa9301HJIjlD7q4wk3KzrQ

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katem98 · 03/07/2022 20:52

@MagicFox A lot of people saying air con fire. Jesus Christ though, Twitter is absolutely awful for scaremongering. Some of the comments on that - glad I don't use it regularly tbh.

MagicFox · 03/07/2022 20:53

It is, I wish I'd linked a different reporting account so sorry about that! Yes still speculation about the cause: reports of bad maintenance or a potential false flag and even resistance. Looks superficial. We'll have to wait and see

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katem98 · 03/07/2022 20:55

@MagicFox No need to apologise, Twitter in general is awful! I wonder if sanctions against Russia would have a part to play in general maintenance upkeep? Not sure if that's how it works but I've wondered this a few times.

MagicFox · 03/07/2022 20:56

@katem98 yes you're right, so we should expect to see more issues with the maintenance of things

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Igotjelly · 03/07/2022 20:57

Agree Twitter is a cesspit unfortunately.

Russian health and safety standards are generally shit to non-existent to an air-con malfunctioning seems likely.

Igotjelly · 03/07/2022 21:01

Although not exactly surprising your Twitter is terrifying if you follow people called endgameWW3 😂

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