ISW Key Takeaways
Russian forces continued efforts to encircle Lysychansk and conducted offensive operations to the south and southwest of the city.
Russian forces have likely not yet reached the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway on the ground but are denying Ukrainian forces use of it by continuing artillery and airstrikes against remaining Ukrainian positions along the road.
Russian forces focused on regrouping and improving their tactical positions north of Slovyansk.
Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground assaults in northern Kharkiv Oblast and continued shelling Ukrainian positions north of Kharkiv City.
Russian forces conducted artillery and missile strikes along the Southern Axis.
The authorities of the Russian Federation continue to work to expand the reserve of conscripts available to participate in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine.
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The economy is being slowly moved to a war footing
The Kremlin is likely setting conditions for crypto-mobilization of the Russian economy in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine. The Kremlin proposed an amendment to federal laws on Russian Armed Forces supply matters to the Russian State Duma on June 30, that would introduce “special measures in the economic sphere” obliging Russian businesses (regardless of ownership) to supply Russian special military and counterterrorist operations.[1] The amendment would prohibit Russian businesses from refusing to accept state orders for special military operations and allow the Kremlin to change employee contracts and work conditions, such as forcing workers to work during the night or federal holidays. The Kremlin noted in the amendment’s description that the ongoing special military operation in Ukraine exposed supply shortages, specifically materials needed to repair military equipment, and stated that Russian officials need to “concentrate their efforts in certain sectors of the economy." Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely mobilizing the Russian economy and industry to sustain the ongoing war effort, but has not yet taken parallel measures to mobilize Russian manpower on a large scale.
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UkraineNOW
Revenge attacks in Odessa are killing and wounding in the region of 60 in the last couple days (my paraphrasing)
📌 Russia has announced its withdrawal from the eight partial and extended partial agreements of the Council of Europe
In particular, Russia withdraws from:
▫️ Groups for cooperation in the fight against drug addiction and illicit trafficking;
▫️ European Commission for Democracy through Law;
▫️ European Film Production Support Fund;
▫️ Observatories for teaching history in Europe.
⚔️ The armed forces are successfully using new weapons supplied by the United States. They also mastered the MLRS HIMARS to defeat Russian command posts.
Reports from a freed prisoner that the conditions they are being kept in are dreadful, plus torture.
📍 Meanwhile, mass anti-government protests began in some countries
❗️ 3 large landing ships were added to the two enemy missile ships in the northwestern part of the Black Sea
This is reported by the Operational Command "Pivden."
“2 enemy missile ships in the northwestern part of the Black Sea continue to carry on board the threat of more than a dozen cruise missiles. For weightiness, 3 large landing ships were added to them. Not feeling protected, they keep at a maximum safe distance from the coast of Ukraine."
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Commander: Russia launches phosphorous bombs on Snake Island. [I really think that the Ukr forces going there would be a really bad idea]
⚡️ CNN: US believes Russia does not have sufficient forces to control Kherson Oblast.
U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said the Kremlin “faces rising partisan activity in southern Ukraine,” which may serve as a growing challenge to Russia’s attempts to control temporarily occupied regions.
Another U.S. official said Russia likely does not have sufficient forces in Kherson Oblast, especially considering its dedication of troops to Donbas.
⚡️ General Staff: Russian forces on defensive near Sloviansk, continue to shell towards Kramatorsk.
⚡️35 countries demand to suspend Russia's, Belarus' membership in international sports organizations.
⚡️Poland's Gdansk names city square near Russian consulate 'Plaza of Heroic Mariupol.'