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Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

1000 replies

MagicFox · 24/06/2022 11:38

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

OP posts:
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74
Igotjelly · 01/07/2022 15:12

katem98 · 01/07/2022 15:02

Quick question if anyone is able to shed some light?

If I remember rightly, at the beginning of the invasion, China very much seemed neutral re the situation, wouldn't put their penny worth in regarding Russia, called for peace etc.

Is this still somewhat their stance or are they getting more behind Russia? I thought this war would be a bit of a hassle for everyone and thought that if anything, China would've been a little more vocal.

China are still a bit of an unknown quantity. I did a readout (previous thread I think) following a Chatham House event I went to that set it out well.

Essentially the takeaway was that China aligns itself with Russia in that they both deeply mistrust the West and have large areas of mutual interest, not least because they share a large land border. On the flip side, all the talk of a relationship without limits should be taken with a pinch of salt. This is only true whilst its in China's interests for it to be so (I think the Chatham House speaker talked about it being a relationship without limits but *terms and conditions apply).

China have increased trade with Russia in some aspects but there have been some deals that were expected to be done that thus far haven't been. What we haven't seen so far is any sort of military support for Russia from China.

Igotjelly · 01/07/2022 15:18

NATO's wording in its 2022 Strategic Concept relating to China was interesting and, in my view, would probably have been stronger if it weren't for the current war in Ukraine and the risk of escalation with Russia. I believe they resisted labelling China a direct threat and instead used the wording "...systemic challenges posed by....China to Euro-Atlantic security".

China have hit back hard and are apparently furious at being named at all in NATO's strategic concept - their response being "Who’s challenging global security and undermining world peace? Are there any wars or conflicts over the years where NATO is not involved?.....NATO’s so-called Strategic Concept, filled with cold war thinking and ideological bias, is maliciously attacking and smearing China. We firmly oppose it"

I do think as a result we will perhaps see a further deepening of Sino-Russian relations.

MagicFox · 01/07/2022 16:03

Wow that politico article is certainly chilling. I've somehow missed those statements anywhere else
!

OP posts:
ScrollingLeaves · 01/07/2022 16:09

@OwlsDance ance · Today 14:05
It looks like Russians are actually building houses in Mariupol! Saw some videos from mainly prorussian sources, but they look legit

It was on the radio today, or somewhere, that this is just in a street where they are filming. I wonder what the truth is?

katem98 · 01/07/2022 16:11

Thank you for that @Igotjelly, appreciate it. I suppose we'll take China not actually arming Russia as a win.

OwlsDance · 01/07/2022 16:40

ScrollingLeaves · 01/07/2022 16:09

@OwlsDance ance · Today 14:05
It looks like Russians are actually building houses in Mariupol! Saw some videos from mainly prorussian sources, but they look legit

It was on the radio today, or somewhere, that this is just in a street where they are filming. I wonder what the truth is?

Well they've just started, they are building those huge blocks of flats, so even though it's 3 houses, there's a lot of flats in there.

Ijsbear · 01/07/2022 17:09

Just to clarify (though tell me if I'm wrong @Ijsbear !) I think ljs meant that the odds favour this scenario one day because of the nature of humankind rather than any specific pronouncement about the current situation

I think that it's not very likely that it will happen through this war, but I don't think it's impossible.

I suspect that if it gets to the point that this happens, Russia will prod and poke until either other countries roll over and do nothing (and this is an invitation for a wider invasion) or else people will have to stand up to them eventually. Either you stand up to a bully, and plenty of trained people have analysed that the way to keep Russia from taking over -is- to stand up to them, or you lie down and get walked over. If countries do make a stand then the UK will be involved.

But I don't think it's that likely and I do think that the North Sea makes a difference. Putin threatens and threatens and threatens but a very great deal of what he says is bluster, and the best and brightest minds in the West are working on threat analysis and balancing risks now.

However if Putin does invade more mid-european countries, in terms of trade it will make Brexit look like a minor blip, I think. I believe it is in the UK's long term self interest to stand with NATO and Ukraine to the hilt here. I can't stand the man, but this is the one thing that BoJo is doing right.

Ijsbear · 01/07/2022 17:12

China have increased trade with Russia in some aspects but there have been some deals that were expected to be done that thus far haven't been. What we haven't seen so far is any sort of military support for Russia from China.

I think some non-military support has been quietly slipped to Russia and China has used the opportunity to flex its muscles re Taiwan. But there are few reports of military aid being given. In fact the big company that was selling small drones to both sides withdrew their trade from both Russia and Ukraine (perhaps helped by the knowledge leaking out that the drones sold to Ukr could be hacked by Russia)

Ijsbear · 01/07/2022 17:25

Flash
@Flash43191300
·
21m
1/2⚡️The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Due to the significant losses of personnel of military units from the Eastern Military District of the Russian Federation, an active draft campaign is being carried out on its territory.

Given how hard Putin has tried to avoid an active draft this reeks of desperation. The East is at least remote, not powerful and voiceless.

Igotjelly · 01/07/2022 17:49

Russia now falling out with Bulgaria. God it must be exhausting to be so hateful.

Ijsbear · 01/07/2022 17:51

wasn't Bulgaria rather leaning towards them a few weeks into the war?

Igotjelly · 01/07/2022 18:42

On China from Sky News.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 28
katem98 · 01/07/2022 19:07

Igotjelly · 01/07/2022 18:42

On China from Sky News.

Well, that's something then I guess!

OwlsDance · 01/07/2022 19:32

Igotjelly · 01/07/2022 18:42

On China from Sky News.

This is really good. China really wouldn't do anything that would potentially hurt them, for the sake of someone else's cause.

Lukashenko, however, has really backed himself into a corner, hasn't he? Who is he going turn to if Putin runs out of patience and decides to annexe Belarus? After all, Russian troops are already there. Not that Belarusians would be willing to fight against Ukraine though....

MissConductUS · 01/07/2022 19:45

There's a great exclusive in the WSJ this afternoon about how the HIMARS are changing the situation in Ukraine. Here's the link

www.wsj.com/articles/new-u-s-guided-rockets-strengthen-ukraines-hand-against-russia-11656698614?mod=hp_lead_pos11

This link may or may not get you past the paywall.

emailshare.createsend1.com/t/n/d-l-358a94fef96d11ec8aafc24de6b3c789-l-d-r-l/

Here's the first half or so of the article.

New U.S. Guided Rockets Strengthen Ukraine’s Hand Against Russia
Himars can reach twice as far behind enemy lines; ‘a stick in the wheel’ of Moscow’s war effort

SLOVYANKA, Ukraine—American-supplied high-tech rocket launchers have begun arriving on the front line in eastern Ukraine. Already they are shifting the balance of power in the fierce artillery duel being fought with Russian forces, Ukrainian officers say.

For more than a month, a Russian field headquarters not far from here was frustratingly beyond the range of Lt. Valentyn Koval’s Soviet-era artillery battery, he said. That changed last week, when Lt. Koval’s unit got a High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or Himars.

Under cover of darkness, his unit drove the truck-mounted rocket launcher into position, punched in coordinates and pressed the launch button. Six 200-pound rockets slammed into the Russian position, largely destroying it, said Lt. Koval, who commands two Himars batteries.

The Russian base was one of about 10 high-value positions Lt. Koval says Ukraine has hit in the two weeks since taking charge of the systems, the most sophisticated weaponry Washington has supplied to Ukraine since Russia invaded in February.

Ukrainian soldiers operating Himars say they have doubled their reach into Russian-held territory with greater precision and less risk to themselves. Kyiv officials say such weaponry is their best hope to defeat the Russians in what has become a grueling war of attrition.

“These Himars are very powerful. They allow us as much as possible to put a stick in their wheel,” 22-year-old Lt. Koval said about the Russian forces. “It’s a huge advantage for us. Russia has nothing comparable.”

Four Himars batteries were delivered in June and four more are expected by mid-July. On Thursday, President Biden said Ukraine would receive additional batteries from other countries and more ammunition from the U.S. as part of a new $800 million assistance package.

Washington was initially reluctant to provide Himars, fearing such a move could cause Moscow to retaliate against the U.S. or its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The rockets have roughly twice the range of the M777 howitzers that the U.S. has provided to Ukraine.

“They can hit Russian systems with them,” said Sam Cranny-Evans, a research analyst at the Royal United Service Institute think tank in London. A lot will depend on the quality of the Ukrainians’ intelligence and reconnaissance of Russian targets, he added, but Moscow will be looking to destroy the Himars so that they no longer pose a threat.

Ijsbear · 01/07/2022 20:04

That's really really good news @MissConductUS

--

There are real hints that Ukraine is struggling financially rather badly. High value donation are going now to aid with current expenses rather than buying new armaments

MissConductUS · 01/07/2022 20:07

Here's the rest:

Ukrainian officials have argued that they need longer-range artillery to offset the Russian military’s enormous firepower.

The U.S. has declined to provide Ukraine with longer-range rockets that can be fired by the Himars at targets up to 185 miles away.

Russian officials have sharply criticized the U.S. decision to supply Himars, saying Washington is pouring fuel on the fire and threatening to respond if the systems are used to target Russian territory.

For the Ukrainian operators, Himars provide an opportunity to level the playing field against an enemy that has more men and more guns. The U.S. and its Western allies had previously focused on providing 155mm howitzers, with range comparable to Russian systems, to replace Ukraine’s own Soviet-era stock.

Each Himars fires six precision-guided rockets with a range of up to 48 miles, giving the Ukrainians the ability to strike Russian command posts, ammunition and fuel depots, as well as troop concentrations in rear areas.
An abandoned Russian rocket launcher.Photo: Manu Brabo for The Wall Street Journal

Soviet-designed Smerch and Uragan long-range multiple-launch systems are imprecise and time-consuming to use, relying on analog instruments for targeting. The systems are unarmored, difficult to maneuver and often break down, exposing operators to risk of counterattack.

Himars are smaller and easier to maneuver, helping them hide from enemy reconnaissance. Crews work inside an armored cabin. And they are fast: once parked, they can begin launching rockets within two or three minutes and move again 20 seconds after firing.

“You press three buttons. A few seconds and the system is ready to shoot,” said Lt. Koval. “I don’t have enough fingers to count all the advantages of Himars.”

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on June 23 that the first Himars had arrived. “Summer will be hot for russian occupiers. And the last one for some of them,” he wrote on Twitter.

The following day, Lt. Koval and his men—who received three weeks of training in May from American instructors at a base in Germany—set to work.

Operating at night to avoid detection by Russian drones, Lt. Koval directed each system to a different launch point in a coordinated attack with 24 rockets on Russian positions. Operators like Pvt. Dmytro Kovalenko, 18 years old, put coordinates into a digital system that uses satellites to direct strikes and then pressed the launch button.

Rockets flashed across the black sky in a burst and, moments later, the vehicles were on the move back to a secure location, according to a video shown to a reporter by Lt. Koval.

The next day, video footage posted online showed the Russian headquarters at a school in Izyum on fire. Lt. Koval said 17 Russian service members were killed, including a colonel and two majors, more than 20 were wounded and many vehicles were destroyed.

That assessment, which Lt. Koval said was based on Ukrainian intelligence reports, couldn’t be independently verified.

A few days later, Himars hit a Russian military barracks where new recruits were sleeping, inflicting heavy losses, Lt. Koval said. In a third attack he described, the Ukrainians directed all four Himars at Russian positions in one Ukrainian town, sending 24 rockets against targets in the same area. Another strike struck in the town of Zymohirya, some 30 miles behind the frontline, Lt. Koval said.

Due to the $155,000 price tag per rocket, the Ukrainians are focusing the firepower on high-value targets like military headquarters, weapons depots and barracks rather than individual Russian tanks or artillery systems. They expect this will force Moscow to pull assets back from the frontline, which will further stretch its already strained logistics.

Kyiv is asking Washington for the ability to strike even deeper into Russian-held territory but so far, the Biden administration hasn’t indicated it would provide the U.S. Army’s tactical-missile system, which can travel more than 185 miles.

“We dream of having longer-range munitions for Himars to hit more significant targets,” said Lt. Koval. On his wishlist are Russian airstrips and command posts and a bridge that Russia built after annexing Crimea at the start of the 2014 war.

On his body armor, Lt. Koval wears a patch he received from a U.S. instructor showing a coiled rattlesnake above the words “Don’t tread on me.” He said he is grateful to the American people for providing sophisticated weaponry so that Ukrainians can push the Russians out of his country. “We understand from this assistance that we are not alone in this fight,” he said.

blueshoes · 01/07/2022 20:26

@MissConductUS thanks for posting on the WSJ article on HIMARS. Just music to my ears.

From the last para, Ukraine is very grateful to the US as should the free world.

MissConductUS · 01/07/2022 20:36

blueshoes · 01/07/2022 20:26

@MissConductUS thanks for posting on the WSJ article on HIMARS. Just music to my ears.

From the last para, Ukraine is very grateful to the US as should the free world.

You're welcome. The "Don't Tread On Me" with the coiled rattlesnake is from the Gadsden flag, used during the American Revolution.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gadsden_flag

Which oddly enough, we will be celebrating on the 4th of July. 🙂

ScrollingLeaves · 01/07/2022 21:05

@OwlsDance · Today 16:40
ScrollingLeaves
@OwlsDance ance · Today 14:05
It looks like Russians are actually building houses in Mariupol! Saw some videos from mainly prorussian sources, but they look legit

It was on the radio today, or somewhere, that this is just in a street where they are filming. I wonder what the truth is?

Well they've just started, they are building those huge blocks of flats, so even though it's 3 houses, there's a lot of flats in there.

It is good for the residents in one way but very upsetting to think first the Russians bomb them, then make them dependent and grateful. Stockholm syndrome on a large scale.

OwlsDance · 01/07/2022 21:36

ScrollingLeaves · 01/07/2022 21:05

@OwlsDance · Today 16:40
ScrollingLeaves
@OwlsDance ance · Today 14:05
It looks like Russians are actually building houses in Mariupol! Saw some videos from mainly prorussian sources, but they look legit

It was on the radio today, or somewhere, that this is just in a street where they are filming. I wonder what the truth is?

Well they've just started, they are building those huge blocks of flats, so even though it's 3 houses, there's a lot of flats in there.

It is good for the residents in one way but very upsetting to think first the Russians bomb them, then make them dependent and grateful. Stockholm syndrome on a large scale.

Yes, and no doubt they'll use it on their propaganda news if Ukraine is ever to retake the city - "we've been so good and rebuilt the city, and look what these savages are doing!" if any of them are destroyed in the process.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 01/07/2022 22:07

OwlsDance · 01/07/2022 21:36

Yes, and no doubt they'll use it on their propaganda news if Ukraine is ever to retake the city - "we've been so good and rebuilt the city, and look what these savages are doing!" if any of them are destroyed in the process.

I think it won't be for Ukrainians that they are being built.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 01/07/2022 22:25

Do you think they will move russian civilians in like they did in Crimea?

Rabbitholedigger · 01/07/2022 22:40

It's like your neighbour bombing your house, killing half your family then him building a log cabin in your back garden and be grateful.

Nah.

OwlsDance · 01/07/2022 22:41

Of course. They did it in USSR, they will do it now to Russify the regions.

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