Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

[MagicFox]

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

LOL well, Boris would know what toxicity and lies are.

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces continued to launch assault operations south and southwest of Lysychansk. The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) officials claimed that Ukrainian forces had begun to withdraw from the city, but ISW cannot confirm these claims.
[heard this from normally-accurate and very pro-Ukr Twitter account too]

Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations north of Slovyansk and conducted spoiling attacks on settlements west of Izyum, likely to disrupt Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Russian forces failed to advance along the Kharkiv City-Belgorod highway and continued to undertake measures to hinder Ukrainian advances towards the international border or Izyum.

Ukrainian forces continued to launch counteroffensives north of Kherson City and reportedly liberated two settlements.

Russian forces continued to transfer military equipment and personnel east of Melitopol.

Russian occupation authorities are maintaining unsuccessful efforts to introduce ruble salary payments and set conditions to inflate electoral numbers in a future referendum.

at more length on one aspect:

⚡️Institute for the Study of War: Russia's next moves in Donbas will depend on ability to recoup combat power from the Sievierodonetsk forces.
The U.S. think tank said in its latest assessment that the next part of Russia's offensive will likely depend on its ability to transfer its units used in the battle of Sievierodonetsk to the rest of the offensive. The main factor is the units ability to cross the Siverskyi Donets River as all bridges were destroyed.
If Russian forces threaten to complete the encirclement by pushing from the north and southwest of Lysychansk, then Ukrainian forces will likely abandon Lysychansk as well and conduct a fighting withdrawal to more defensible positions, the experts predict.

+++

The Kyiv Independent, [29/06/2022 00:19]
⚡️Zelensky: Russia has fired over 2,800 missiles at Ukraine's cities since start of war.

⚡️SBU arrests man suspected of providing Russia with coordinates for Yavoriv military base. The suspect, who was previously part of the KGB, sent maps with marked locations to the Russian military, which were used to fire on the site. Russia's attack on Yavoriv military base in Lviv Oblast resulted in 50 Ukrainian soldiers killed and 150 more injured.

⚡️The Guardian: Wimbledon reportedly eases dress code to allow players show solidarity with Ukraine.

⚡️Canada's Justin Trudeau announces additional aid for Ukraine.
As the G7 meeting concluded on June 28 in Elmau, Germany, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced $118 million in new humanitarian, development, and peace and security support for Ukraine. Canada will also provide $155 million through the International Monetary Fund to help Ukraine with liquidity issues. [is this a hint they are struggling to pay for things?]

⚡️Foreign Policy: Ukraine to request NATO's assistance in deterring possible Russian nuclear or chemical attacks. [Chemical and radiation protection stuff has recently been sent to Ukr so it looks like there are grounded fears for this sort of attack]

💡 Bulgaria expels 70 Russian diplomats, in part because of ties with Russian intelligence

💡A referendum on the annexation of the Donetsk region to the Russian Federation is scheduled for September 11 – an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol Petro Andriushchenko.

⚡️ The UN Security Council Statement: “We strongly condemn the intensification of Russian missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine, targeting residential areas and civilian infrastructure, over the period of 25-27 June 2022.
We condemn in the strongest terms the killing of civilians as a result of these missile attacks, in particular the attack that hit a crowded shopping center in Kremenchuk, Poltava region of Ukraine. This strike was a blatant attack on civilian infrastructure and civilian population".
The United Nations Security Council, following a meeting on Ukraine, insisted:
▪️ on an independent investigation into war crimes,
▪️ on the retreat of Russian troops from the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine and its territorial waters. [Yeah, or what? words, words, words UNSEC. Get off your arses instead of yapping uselessly]

The Guardian: Wimbledon reportedly eases dress code to allow players show solidarity with Ukraine.

I suppose that's a good thing but it does look awfully like virtue signalling.

Maybe a better idea would be to donate the gate receipts to fund drones/NLAWS etc.

@notimagain

Re your post this morning, are you saying this speech (that MagicFox posted and Katie98 was alarmed by) was all just pure talk, and that nothing will come of it? Or were you meaning something else?

^MagicFox · Yesterday 11:32
Full speech from Sanders here: www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2022/06/rusi-land-warfare-conference-cgs-speech/^

General Sanders speech is important in that it highlights just how decimated the armed forces in the UK currently are and what would be needed in order to meet out NATO obligations - fundamentally more spending. UK armed forces are going to be on higher alert, as are the rest of the 300,000 NATO readiness forces but basically all that means is that the time frame for them to be deployed in, should they need to be, is reduced significantly.

More importantly we need to be looking to Ben Wallace, Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, at the end of the day they hold the purse strings and have the say on the direction of travel.

Incidentally Lord Ricketts, who has held a number of senior diplomatic posts, including as UK ambassador to NATO and chair of the Joint Intelligence Committee, was on the Context on BBC News last night. He suggested that comparisons to 1937 are misplaced and incorrect, and indeed potentially harmful. His view is that the Govt and General Sanders are trying to invoke the 'Blitz Spirit' (which is bullshit in its own right) in order to justify the UK public needing to tighten belts and be willing to see more money go on defence and the armed forces. It is his view that we are not headed to a World War and that reference to 1937 does little but panic people unnecessarily.

Apologies I've got to dash out so this will have to be brief..I'll have another look at the full speech later, but there were loud grumbles last night that Sanders was perhaps over promising what the UK can do short term, especially when it comes to armour, specifically Main Battle Tanks, and to some extent artillery.

There are certainly complaints amongst those who keep an eye on the armoured (tanks) side of things that at one point yesterday, either in the speech or elsewhere, that he was giving a very optimistic picture of the number of Challenger ( variant 2 / the upgraded 3) currently available to the Army or that would even be available in the next eighteen months to two years....

updates

Whilst i'm not sure I believe that the missile that hit the shopping centre was actually intended for a 'legitimate' target I really hope that's the case. To intentionally target a building with 1000s of people in it is pure evil.

For those wondering what Sweden and Finland had agreed to etc. this was just released.

https://www.nato.int/natostaticc_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pdf/220628-trilat-memo.pdf

Thanks, there hasn't been much in the English language press here about what has been agreed, and I haven't checked the Finnish language press yet (because I'm on holiday and that feels too much like work). Seems mostly not much change, the arms embargoes sure, but the terrorist stuff, well Finland and Sweden already labelled PKK as terrorists I think because that's the EU position. The extradition stuff is a bit concerning though, I hope they don't extradite people that they wouldn't have extradited otherwise. Hopefully its just an issue of speeding up the process of those who would have been extradited anyway.

I have just seen the most horrendously upsetting image on Twitter that I can't unsee. How can this be happening in 2022? Why are humans so cruel? Why can't we do better for our children?

That’s awful :(

I’m sorry you had to see that.

It does feel like we’re just standing by and letting it happen despite the weapon support.

Sorry to hear that MagicFox. Not trivialising people who have been through actual trauma and suffering from PTSD. There is a thing called secondary PTSD when you are exposed to images and suffering of others and can get profoundly affected.

These things should come with a health warning. I avoid going on Twitter for that reason and only if sign-posted by the kind posters on this thread.

Thanks blue and TT. I do a horrific thing where I respond to it first for what it is (awful) but then I imagine it with my own children and it becomes doubly unbearable. And I think this is a normal reaction too before anybody says I should see a GP!

@MagicFox Fully, fully sympathise.

@notimagain · Today 08:50
and @Igotjelly
Thank you for your explanations about General Sanders’ speech.

@MagicFox I am so sorry for the horror you have seen . Once seen it cannot be unseen. You and others here who have been looking on Twitter to keep us informed have put yourself in danger of seeing terrible things I realise.🙁

NEXTA
@nexta_tv
·
14m
⚡️ NATO countries officially invited #Sweden and #Finland to join the alliance

Also, #NATO summit adopted the strategic concept of the alliance until 2030, in which it called #Russia the main security threat.

 @ScrollingLeaves @katem98

mobile.twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1542156663578398721report,unconfirmed,about societal defenders released

Sorry Mauripol defenders

And should have said some not all

Big cyber attack on Norway - they've recently blocked some RU deliveries to arctic

Good piece by Joshua Heminski:

thehill.com/opinion/international/3539481-victory-in-ukraine-could-mean-a-stalemate/

So how does this end?

Are the sanctions working?
Is supplying Ukraine with weapons going to drive Russia out, eventually?

How many die in the interim, and is that acceptable? In a European sovereign state?

If we intervene would it really mean WW3? Truthfully?

I saw a picture on Twitter earlier...5 months in. Might be one mentioned earlier. Unacceptable and intolerable imo.