Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

Thanks for the new thread

Thanks for the new thread

I am curious about whether Ukraine could have joined/might be able to join the Commonwealth and whether that would have afforded some extra protection, whether it's too late for them to join now (should they even want to).

From my pov, acknowledging the UK Monarch as Head of the Commonwealth, whether that be Elizabeth II or Charles, would be better than having a Putin anywhere near my Government, but I'm not Ukrainian.

I’m going to make my first post on this thread one of positivity. Just listening to Ukrainecast and they’re speaking to someone who has been helping civilians leave Mariupol and other occupied areas. Basically the message is that no one would be escaping if it wasn’t for random acts of kindness by strangers which are apparently many.

Another article on Russians who are anti-war and making it known: www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/27/our-voices-are-louder-if-we-stay-russian-anti-war-activists-refuse-to-flee

The commonwealth isn’t a defence organization, just friendship, aid and development, any nation can apply to join.

Russians seem to have got better organised now, the outcome is going to depend on how much aid NATO gives Ukraine, if the aim is for Ukraine to take back the occupied territory it going to be a very long war!.

Great article by Harald Malmgren who draws on good experience: 'Putin's War is Just Beginning'

unherd.com/2022/06/putins-war-is-just-beginning/

"For Putin, the next steps seem obvious: unilaterally declare a ceasefire, ease the international interventions on behalf of Ukraine, and provide time to regroup and prepare for a new drive westward through Odesa to Moldova and Transnistria, perhaps next year. If a ceasefire is declared, the world will sigh with relief, stock markets will rebound, worries about world food shortages will diminish, and diplomats will go back to sleep. But the war will only be in hibernation; the action will resume at a later date. After 100 days of war, the battle for Ukraine is only getting started."

Pmk

@MagicFox thank you for new thread

Thanks for the new thread. Will catch up on everything tonight

Thank you for the new thread @MagicFox

Thans for the new thread!

📞 The Russian invaders have renewed the work of Ukrainian mobile and Internet operators in Kherson region - Advisor to the Head of the Kherson Regional military Administration Serhii Khlan.

"The invaders, having heard the spirit of resistance, were still powering on Ukrainian networks this morning, and Kyivstar and Vodafone appeared. So from this point on, the plan to force Kherson residents to use exclusively Russian internet and Russian connectivity have broken down again. This is another victory for Kherson," the advisor said.

(If this access stays open then great! Hope vey much that it's not temporary )

That was from ukraineNIW telegram

If this access stays it really indicates Russian ocopiers are struggling. They've had to put teir 'referendum' on joining Russia back already and looting has apparently ramped up aong with people disappearing. I wonder if there's Rssians are worried about holding Kherson.

sigh. damn phone and clumsy fingers

Thank you for that news Ijsbear.

Fucking hell. Deliberate. And this was in Kyiv. What will be happening in Mariupol and Kherson :/

☠️ The bodies of 1314 civilians killed by Russian invaders were found today in the Kyiv region.

This was announced by the head of the regional police Andriy Niebytov.

"Unfortunately, we continue to receive terrible finds – our fellow citizens, tortured, shot, killed by the Russian army... Today we found 1,314 corpses. These are civilians who had nothing to do with military formations, with the forces of the Troops. Most of them, according to the conclusions of experts, were killed in cold blood by fighters from the Russian army precisely from small arms, therefore, they died not because of mine-explosive defeats," said the head of the regional police.

1314 people. Jesus wept.

Is that 1314 actually found today on top of all the ones already uncovered or do they mean up to today?

By the wording, extra people found today. Perhaps it was careless wording and it meant in total. Perhaps.

In other news but unconfirmed:

Fuat
@lilygrutcher
Russian offensive in Severodonetsk stalled.
2:21 PM · Jun 3, 2022·Twitter Web App

Ok, from other sources it seems that the 1314 bodies may be in -total-.

Was listening to a Russian economist talk about the oil embargo - he said that Russian oil extraction is already down 20-30%, and if the ban all goes to plan, it will mean at least 25% drop in Russian coffers next year. That's a lot.

Also, China and India buy nowhere near the amount that Europe does, and even if they start buying more, it will be a drop in the ocean, and Russia will be forced to sell at a huge discount anyway.

Also, a lot of Russian oil pools are getting depleted, and once you stop extraction, it is very hard to restart it again.

Thanks for new thread @MagicFox

It seems to be official

Ukraine NOW [English], [03/06/2022 20:40]
⚡️ 20% of the territory of Sievierodonetsk has been liberated from the invaders, — said the head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, Serhiy Haidai.

The occupiers lost a lot of equipment and personnel, among which were the “Kadyrovtsy”.

The events of the last two days have shown how much the Armed Forces can drive out the enemy.

sorry for the spam but here we go

Tim White
@TWMCLtd
·
14m
A good day for fire watchers in #Russia

This time in the very far east of the country, a man has doused the lobby of a Rosgvardia office with gasoline and set fire to it.

The arson attack happened in Komsomolsk-on-Amur in #Khaborovsk region

[so the sabs are still happily at it]

The Kyiv Indepe⚡️ CIT: General Dvornikov dismissed from leading Russian troops in Ukraine.

According to the Conflict Intelligence Team, General Alexander Dvornikov was replaced by General Gennady Zhidko, former commander of the Eastern Military District and Russia’s deputy defense minister.

[another twitter account claims that over 650 Russian officers have been killed in the 100 days of war]

⚡️ Switzerland allowed Germany to supply other European countries with German-made tanks that were in service with the Swiss army, reports DW (www.dw.com/en/ukraine-zelenskyy-says-potential-for-turning-point-in-war-as-it-happened/a-62003835).\

This is a bit of a shift because Switzerland has blocked arms transfers to Ukr until now.

🔎 U.S. Technology, a Longtime Tool for Russia, Becomes a Vulnerability – The New York Times

(www.nytimes.com/2022/06/02/business/economy/russia-weapons-american-technology.html?searchResultPosition=1)The Pentagon has studied the equipment of the invaders seized in Ukraine and came to the conclusion that the "advanced" Russian weapons and communications systems are based on Western chips, writes NYT.

It is noted that US Department of Defense officials dismantled all Russian equipment that they managed to get to, including small laser rangefinders and cruise missile guidance systems.

“Advanced Russian weapons and communications systems have been built around Western chips," said Damien Spleeters, one of the researchers at Conflict Armament Research, which is engaged in the identification and tracking of weapons and ammunition.

Therefore, it is possible to predict that russian ammo will be facing tough times in the nearest future