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Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

990 replies

MagicFox · 03/06/2022 13:48

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

OP posts:
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52
Ijsbear · 05/06/2022 10:58

The people that ‘call you out’ about it are generally just giving themselves away as people who have never lifted a finger to help refugees of any creed or colour

Yeah I suspected that. It shows an extreme lack of courtesy.

Ijsbear · 05/06/2022 11:23

Ok you need tissues for this. Honouring the little ones of Ukraine

twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1533091385980616705

notimagain · 05/06/2022 11:49

@FrenchBoule

I got annoyed reading news earlier on about Macron going on about Ukrainian grain and how to get it out of Ukraine.
So he doesn’t give a shit about Ukrainians,only about grain huh?

I have to ask - were you reading news written for a UK audience or audiences from elsewhere?

Given your "handle" I assume you know France has taken refugees, and has amongst other things supplied heavy weaponry to the Ukrainian armed forces, so the reality is it does look like he gives a bit of a "shiney".

As far as grain and other foodstuffs are concerned getting any of it out of Ukraine is a major problem worthy of serious attention, certainly worthy of comments from heads of state...Mr Macron certainly is not the only serious politician who has commented on the issue.

If the west can't come up with a solution to that we're potentially looking at food shortages across large portions of the globe and further displacement of populations/more refugees.

Ijsbear · 05/06/2022 11:52

There are early reports another oligarch has skipped Russia, Valentin Yumashev
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Advisor to the president of Russia
In office
23 December 1998 – April 2022[1]

Yumashev and his second wife Tatyana Yumasheva (daughter of the first president of Russia Boris Yeltsin) own half of the Imperia Tower in "Moscow International Business Center" and half of the business center of "CITY" (49.58% of shares).[

Ijsbear · 05/06/2022 12:03

This is a little unkind but Trent Telenko of the Russian Tyres analysis just fell in the mud along with the tyres. Posted it to give us a laugh!

Trent Telenko
@TrentTelenko
·
13h
I strongly suggest that the UK MoD mid-level intelligence types avail themselves of that unofficial back channel to the Monarchy that everyone pretends doesn't exist, but knows it does, to explain to the Queen what has been going down with UK's Ukrainian intelligence.

RedToothBrush · 05/06/2022 12:13

Ijsbear · 05/06/2022 12:03

This is a little unkind but Trent Telenko of the Russian Tyres analysis just fell in the mud along with the tyres. Posted it to give us a laugh!

Trent Telenko
@TrentTelenko
·
13h
I strongly suggest that the UK MoD mid-level intelligence types avail themselves of that unofficial back channel to the Monarchy that everyone pretends doesn't exist, but knows it does, to explain to the Queen what has been going down with UK's Ukrainian intelligence.

He has form for spouting bollocks when it comes to UK or European politics.

prettybird · 05/06/2022 12:16

He gets "owned" in the replies Grin

Doesn't do his general credibility any good though Hmm

notimagain · 05/06/2022 12:23

RedToothBrush · 05/06/2022 12:13

He has form for spouting bollocks when it comes to UK or European politics.

Agreed, I think this is one of those "stay in your aisle" issues, but as some of these supposed analysts with a public following have gained increasing number of followers they have seemed less and less able to remain on piste....

Telenko will not, or certainly should not, have a scooby about what UK Mod "intelligence types" (or for that matter any other governments intelligence types) are actually up to or are actually thinking...

PerkingFaintly · 05/06/2022 12:27

Yes, agree it does nothing for Telenko's credibility beyond tyres and logistics. Very common for people to be wrong outside their area of expertise, after making a name for themselves and gaining an audience for their skill within their expertise.

Also, this:

M @ ukr_mike
@ TrentTelenko
Do you honestly expect the UK MoD to interrupt their enemy while they are making a mistake?

PerkingFaintly · 05/06/2022 12:43

notimagain put it better.

ScrollingLeaves · 05/06/2022 13:44

Thank you for the recent reports @Ijsbear

minsmum · 05/06/2022 14:15

mobile.twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1533405606496940032 status on day 102

Natsku · 05/06/2022 14:21

The water situation in Mariupol is horrific, two day queue to get drinking water?! Unbearable to imagine :(

BewareTheLibrarians · 05/06/2022 14:22

@FrenchBoule you’re welcome! There’s a lot of negative press around asylum seekers in the mainstream media and not much explanation of why they come to the UK/Europe.

@ScrollingLeaves I didn’t take it as you saying men shouldn’t be refugees at all, don’t worry! :) In terms of intake/space, asylum seekers make up about 0.3% of the UK’s total population, and something like 5 or 6% of total immigrants. We take a relatively small % compared to most other EU countries, but then, we are smaller! I completely agree that there are currently huge problems with lack of housing and inadequate infrastructure (including doctors/gps, school places, hospital beds) for all of us, thanks to the government’s consistent underfunding and reliance on austerity.

The lack of safe routes and resettlement schemes also means the burden of looking after asylum seekers falls disproportionately on the south east (which also has its own problems with poverty) and stretching the services there, rather than being spread evenly throughout the country.

With the Hong Kong immigrants, I seriously doubt the government has made any provision in terms of infrastructure, location or assimilation, so another potential problem brewing there, especially if the MSM take the increase in racism against East Asians due to covid, and ramps it up further.

@Ijsbear Completely agree with your frustration that richer countries in the ME aren’t doing more to help. The UAE is an odd one though. They’re not signatories to the 1951 refugee convention so they have no “obligation” (insert eye roll) to take in refugees. They do claim to offer large amounts of financial support to countries in crisis, in lieu of taking in refugees.

However, even before the conflict in Syria, the UAE had a relatively big Syrian population. During the conflict, some Syrians were able to enter as family members of Syrians working and living in the UAE. The costs of living are high though, meaning life is very hard for families, and usually only the higher earners are able to bring family over (although I think this was relaxed in some cases). Syrians were also offered migrant working visas (easy to get for both skilled and unskilled workers) on a temporary basis, so don’t show up in the typical “asylum seeker” numbers as they are technically counted as economic migrants instead. As the UAE population is pretty mixed in terms of nationality, this may be the case for other refugees but I’m not 100% sure.

However, it’s also important to say that there are plenty who this system doesn’t work for (those who can’t work or have no family already in the UAE), who are effectively forced to live “off the grid” with no support in a country where the cost of living is through the roof. So while they are doing something, I’d agree it’s not enough, and doesn’t come close to addressing the needs of women and children escaping conflict.

Also completely agree with you and other posters who have said that no-one should be called racist because of the refugees they want to/are able to help. While it’s not always important to have identical matches (both white, Christian, middle aged for eg) it’s so so important that any differences are understood and respected on both sides. That’s not always possible and that’s very rarely anyone’s fault.

Ijsbear · 05/06/2022 14:38

Thank you for a really balanced and insightful post Librarians

prettybird · 05/06/2022 14:47

Iirc, BJ claimed in the HoC that the UK had taken in the greatest number of refugees in the world Shock

What he omitted to say was that he was talking about the refugee resettlement scheme from the UN camps which almost? no other country uses, so by definition the UK takes in the most ConfusedHmm

And of course he omitted to say that there is no legal way for asylum seekers to enter the UK Angry. They can only get here illegally and then claim asylum Confused

ScrollingLeaves · 05/06/2022 14:48

@BewareTheLibrarians · Today 14:22

It is very nice to have you giving precise information like this.

Re: what you say here re: proportion of refugees within the population, (0.3%) are there statistics for sq metres of space fit for living in in proportion to the population? In a village/small town in SW France a few years ago for example there seemed to be a lot of little houses empty/fir sale that I don’t think you’d see here. I realise they wouldn’t be a very good solution without infrastructure but it just seems like some countries have miles of space compared to us ( though not compared to Greek islands where refugees were landing).

I didn’t take it as you saying men shouldn’t be refugees at all, don’t worry! :) In terms of intake/space, asylum seekers make up about 0.3% of the UK’s total population, and something like 5 or 6% of total immigrants. We take a relatively small % compared to most other EU countries, but then, we are smaller! I completely agree that there are currently huge problems with lack of housing and inadequate infrastructure (including doctors/gps, school places, hospital beds) for all of us, thanks to the government’s consistent underfunding and reliance on austerity.

BewareTheLibrarians · 05/06/2022 15:34

@ScrollingLeaves thank you for making sense of my posts, I’m typing through a massive head cold so I wasn’t sure how much was normal! :)

Re statistics for square metres/space for living, I have absolutely no idea but that’s an interesting question. The UK’s average population density is apparently 281 people per square km, but of course it’s spread out so differently in different parts of the country that it’s hard to generalise. The picture attached shows the densely populated areas in red, and the lower populated areas in blue, and I don’t think it would surprise anyone!

This article has a good explanation of “lived density”, which I think is probably the figure that’s more helpful as it’s the population density of only the 1km areas that have people living in them (ie aren’t forests,
mountains, ice fields, farmland, other uninhabitable land). England comes out at number 6 in Europe, Wales and Scotland much lower.

https://theconversation.com/amp/think-your-country-is-crowded-these-maps-reveal-the-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-90345

Your point about infrastructure is also really important. It’s tempting to think that asylum seekers could be moved to less populated areas, but with that comes the lack of services that they need. I have no idea what the answer is sadly.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 27
Ijsbear · 05/06/2022 15:47

Germany has promised far more than I realised. Hopefully what has been promised will be delivered. They haven't done well PR wise so far.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 27
Ijsbear · 05/06/2022 16:08

Fuat at lilygrutcher

Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov, the Commander of 29th Russian Army, killed in Ukraine (today or yesterday).

Not yet confirmed. If accurate, another one!

BewareTheLibrarians · 05/06/2022 16:14

I hope Germany do come through. It’s been frustrating to see them bounce between offers and delays. I wonder if Merkel would have been more decisive.

This article below is interesting on Ukraine’s messaging. Quite a lot in here, going back to pre-Crimean invasion.

“Ukraine has been winning the messaging wars. It’s been preparing for years.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/28/russia-ukraine-propaganda-misinformation-media-zelensky/

RedToothBrush · 05/06/2022 16:19

Natsku · 05/06/2022 14:21

The water situation in Mariupol is horrific, two day queue to get drinking water?! Unbearable to imagine :(

I know that some Ukrainians who had left for Russia are returning to Mariupol to see whats left despite what family members have told them. Theyve said, 'i shall be out of touch for 8 days whilst I go. I am going with friends'. Relative is unimpressed and v worried.

RedToothBrush · 05/06/2022 16:34

The bbc article on Ukrainian refugees in the uk a few days back was interesting.

It said about too much pressure on Ukrainians to house relatives and it being more than they can cope with and this group being the one they are most concerned about (this rings true with what ive heard first hand).

It also warns against going to London as there just isnt the resources to cope and its particularly busy and hectic to cope with if you have not got English.

My understanding is most Ukrainians have actually gone to leafy surburbs simply cos thats where people can afford / have space to host. That raises other problems further down the line though - the leafy suburbs aren't the type of place someone on minimum wage can afford to rent / and theres problems with transport to work (which quite frankly far too many hosts haven't adequately considered from what Im gathering. Ive had a few conversations about how do they think the kids are going to get to school, given the lack of housing available around this neck of the woods).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61548979

ScrollingLeaves · 05/06/2022 16:36

@Ijsbear · Today 15:47
Germany has promised far more than I realised. Hopefully what has been promised will be delivered. They haven't done well PR wise so far.

I haven’t got the image of your chart pasted. That is interesting about Germany but is the poor impression because it it has been delayed?

Goodness, what a vast disparity between what the US has given compared to the rest of us. Is that really how it ought to be?

blueshoes · 05/06/2022 16:39

RedToothBrush · 05/06/2022 16:19

I know that some Ukrainians who had left for Russia are returning to Mariupol to see whats left despite what family members have told them. Theyve said, 'i shall be out of touch for 8 days whilst I go. I am going with friends'. Relative is unimpressed and v worried.

This is worrying. I hope they brought enough provisions, including food and water Shock and ideally medicines for those trapped there. I hope they make it past the filtration centres again. What if Russia does not want them to go back to Russia to tell others of what they have seen?

People will die of thirst if they need to queue for 2 days to get drinking water. I cannot imagine what old people alone and trapped in their homes will do.