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Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

990 replies

MagicFox · 03/06/2022 13:48

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

OP posts:
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52
RedToothBrush · 04/06/2022 10:39

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 04/06/2022 10:28

@RedToothBrush that is very interesting. Both of the lead volunteers that I and others support are Russian speaking. They are vehemently against Putin and pro Ukraine but still speak Russian to me (Google translate and Say Hi) and within their volunteer groups (I am part of the group chats). I totally agree that a common language is necessary to form connection and solidarity but it would have been shallow (and somewhat missing the point of genuine connection) to do so at the cost of Russian identity. However, since the invasion, I wonder if anyone who is pro Ukraine and Russian speaking will, in the long term, be faced with having to speak Ukrainian going forward. I imagine there will be many Ukrainians who will be unable to hear the Russian language without being triggered in some way.

I think that is likely to happen. Going forward I do think speaking Russian will be less tolerated. Ive seen comments from Ukrainians in Ukraine about how they would normally speak Russian as their default language but have made a conscious decision to now speak Ukrainian because of what Russian now represents.

Certainly I definitely think some will find the language triggering. I think it highlights that there is now going to be ongoing tension along these lines for generations even if the war were to end tomorrow.

RedToothBrush · 04/06/2022 10:49

Also on a similar but slightly different note is the issue of British hosts needing support especially during the first few weeks.

The focus (rightly) has been on Ukrainians but the hosts are also taking on a huge responsibility and are finding it, at times, very hard even in households where things are working well.

Our local community is lucky in the sense that there is a relatively large number who have come here and there are community efforts to support them but as yet there is little for the hosts who are feeling it as their families arrive.

We have a need to organise something causal for hosts just to compare notes etc.

In areas there isn't this concerntration of Ukrainians coming it must be much harder and isolating for all concerned.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 04/06/2022 11:06

It is no small loss to have to abandon your native language. I am told that Ukrainian and Russian are similar but not at all the same.

Yes, here in Devon the centre focuses it's limited resources on the refugees and that is bound to relieve the hosts somewhat but I do worry about the long term stability of my Ukrainian friends' welfare once they arrive in the UK. I will be offering weekend breaks at ours for theirs and their hosts benefit. I do think a two layered host approach would be far more sustainable.

RedToothBrush · 04/06/2022 11:22

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 04/06/2022 11:06

It is no small loss to have to abandon your native language. I am told that Ukrainian and Russian are similar but not at all the same.

Yes, here in Devon the centre focuses it's limited resources on the refugees and that is bound to relieve the hosts somewhat but I do worry about the long term stability of my Ukrainian friends' welfare once they arrive in the UK. I will be offering weekend breaks at ours for theirs and their hosts benefit. I do think a two layered host approach would be far more sustainable.

There is currently a thread running where a woman is being pressured by her Ukrainian mil to take in relatives. She doesn't want to. Of course there are mnetters emotionally blackmailing her...

Im up to my eyeballs in this stuff atm. I both get the pressure but im also seeing whats happening when its not been well thought out / considered / supported.

It definitely needs non hosts to also help hosts and Ukrainians and there needs to be awareness that its not simply having someone staying in your spare room like family at Christmas.

I am really worried about 6 months from now. Really worried.

I met up with a Polish friend yesterday and she is worried about how thats going to pan out there too. Shr said there was a housing crisis prior to the conflict. Now its impossible to rent anywhere there.

We can talk about wheat and gas and cost of living as pressures that are a race against time for the war effort. Its also refugees themselves that are a ticking timebomb.

Ask Erdoğan who is facing similar but with Syrians...

Ijsbear · 04/06/2022 12:05

bit late (oh the lie in was wonderful, it's great when the kids are old enough to entertain themselves a few hours)

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted unsuccessful assaults southeast and southwest of Izyum and west of Lyman but remain unlikely to secure major advances towards Slovyansk.

Russian forces made minor gains in the eastern part of Severodonetsk, but Ukrainian forces continues to launch localized counterattacks in Severodonetsk and its outskirts.

Russian forces did not attempt to launch assaults on Avdiivka.

Russian forces failed to regain lost positions in northeastern Kherson Oblast and continued to defend previously occupied positions.

Russian occupation authorities began issuing Russian passports in Kherson City and Melitopol, though they continue to face challenges establishing societal control over occupied territories and ending Ukrainian partisan actions.

About electronic warfare and jamming, coincidentally the ISW published this:
Ukrainian forces report that Russian electronic warfare (EW) units are increasingly threatening Ukrainian air reconnaissance in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are increasingly jamming all possible signals and hindering Ukrainian drone operations.[6] The Ukrainian General Staff has previously reported that Russian forces intensified EW operations in Donbas, likely in an effort to obstruct Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance and drone strikes on Russian units.[7]

Russian and proxy forces reportedly have not sufficiently prepared frontline units with medical supplies, leading to abysmal medical care.

A Russian milblogger published a lengthy message on June 3 claiming that nearly the entire 35th Combined Arms Army has been destroyed in Izyum due to incompetent Russian commanders. A Russian milblogger under the pseudonym Boytsovyi Kot Murz said that Russian commanders did not account for combat challenges in the Izyum woods, leading to significant losses in the 64th and 38th Separate Guard Motor Rifle Brigades, which he reported now have less than 100 servicemen in total.

+++

The Kyiv Independent, [04/06/2022 06:53]
⚡️Ukraine’s State Emergency Service evacuates over 1.8 million people since Feb. 24.
In 100 days of Russia’s all-out war, Ukraine’s State Emergency Service reported that they have made 32,468 trips, extinguished 9,300 fires, rescued 1,397 people and neutralized 128,424 munitions, including 1,983 bombs. As of June 3, Ukraine’s first responders evacuated more than 1.8 million people, including over 504,000 children and 32,000 people with disabilities.

⚡️Nearly 14 million Ukrainians had to flee their homes due to Russia's war.

The Kyiv Independent, [04/06/2022 12:25]
⚡️Ukrainian General Krasylnykov: We expected Russians to launch invasion from Donbas. According to Dmytro Krasylnykov, the commander of Ukraine’s “North” Operational Command, the Ukrainian military thought that Russia would begin its full-scale invasion from the Russian-occupied territories of the Donbas. “Until the end, we believed that our enemy would not begin a large-scale invasion on all fronts, all lines. We hoped for the best, but prepared for the worst,” he added.
[this strategic mistake by Russia was hugely influential in the course of the war. I wonder how that deposed FSB intelligence man is faring now after he was sent to a feared prison].

UkraineNOW telegram channel:

🇺🇦🇩🇪Head of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Ruslan Stefanchuk during his working visit to Germany met with the Federal President of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier [relations may be warming]

☎️ Macron said he had spent at least 100 hours in telephone conversations with Putin in six months [I expect there's more going on than we will ever know but by results on the ground this was a waste of time and breath. Does indicate that Putin is still at the helm though].

❗️Russia summons heads of U.S. media outlets, warns of 'stringent measures' – Reuters

📌 The EU will not recognize Russian passports issued to residents of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine, which are under the control of the Russian Federation, Josep Borrell said.

⚡️Kishida may go to NATO summit – NHK
(www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20220604_09/)Preparations are said to be underway for Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio to attend a NATO summit later this month in Spain. If the plans come to fruition, Kishida will be the first Japanese leader to join a meeting of the alliance. [interesting. Japan has been sending a lot of support to Ukraine]

🇺🇦Ukrainian intelligence maintains contact with captured Azovstal military – Monastyrsky According to the minister, information about the possibility of releasing prisoners comes through the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.

❗️Russians storm Sievierodonetsk again Serhiy Haidai, head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, spoke about this. “There are wounded in Sievierodonetsk, where the Russians are suffering losses. However, they are continuing to storm the city. Once again, they tried to cut off the settlement by firing at another bridge. As for the situation at the front, the fighting on the streets of Sievierodonetsk continues. The Russians received reinforcements from the mobilization reserve of the 2nd Army Corps,” Haidai said.

🇺🇦The war in Ukraine can end at any moment. An internal conflict flares up in the Russian Federation, which could lead to a cessation of hostilities, – adviser to the head of the President's Office Mykhailo Podolyak [I wonder what this means? Bearing in mind that the English translations/grammar are not always precisely perfect, I wonder if this means that an internal conflict might be happening soon, or if it's more theoretical 'if one happened it could bring the end of the war'. There have been no other reported hints of significant internal unrest to this degree that I've seen myself].

‼️Russia has launched five large landing ships into the Black Sea

🇺🇦Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov and the defenders of Mariupol handed over the exposition "Ukraine — Crucifixion" the Flag of Ukraine, which was waving over the "Azovstal" Plant. The flag will be stored in the National Museum of the History of Ukraine in the Second World War. [3rd attached pic]

‼️Mariupol. Demolition of houses, probably along with the bodies. Data on the new bodies of the dead is impossible to obtain due to the fact that after the demolition everything is taken to a landfill in the Levoberezhny district. If the corpses were left in the buildings, they were thrown into the landfill along with the garbage. This was stated by Petro Andryushchenko, Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol [how the Russians value human life and dignity eh?]

notimagain · 04/06/2022 12:10

About electronic warfare and jamming, coincidentally the ISW published this:
Ukrainian forces report that Russian electronic warfare (EW) units are increasingly threatening Ukrainian air reconnaissance in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are increasingly jamming all possible signals and hindering Ukrainian drone operation

Noted....Looks like the kopeck has finally dropped..

Thanks for the updates

Ijsbear · 04/06/2022 12:21

yw :)

I came across a reference yesterday to Aeroflot. They are struggling very badly now.

Russia's biggest Aeroflot airlines announce that they suspend flights to Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Before February 24, 2022, Aeroflot flew to 146 destinations in 52 countries. Now the number dropped to 12 destinations mainly in Russia and Belarus.

www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/reputation-damage-aeroflot-s-unexpected-start-to-2022/ar-AAXZU78

Until recently, Aeroflot was a flag bearer for modern Russia, but the fallout from Russia's assault on Ukraine has damaged the airline. Top executives have quit, most international markets remain off-limits, and the airline may be forced to cannibalize its own planes to keep others in the air. It's been a hard and fast fall from grace for Aeroflot.
A hard and fast fall for Aeroflot

As recently reported in Bloomberg, Aeroflot spent the best part of two decades turning itself from an aviation no-go zone into a well-respected airline with a solid safety and service record. Before the war, the SkyTeam member flew to 56 countries using a modern fleet of mainly Boeing and Airbus planes. SkyTeam has since suspended Aeroflot from their alliance, and the airline's country count is down to 13.

Aeroflot's most recently released data covers March 2022 - the first full month of the current conflict and when a raft of sanctions began impacting Russia and its entities like Aeroflot. The airline's passenger numbers declined by 20.4% compared to the previous March. Aeroflot's international passenger numbers fared worse, falling 88.6% to 137,200 this March compared to the previous March - and keep in mind March 2021 was midway through the COVID pandemic and not exactly a stellar month for international flying stats.

From 146 destinations to 12.

Ijsbear · 04/06/2022 12:24

Very good article on the Russian army's flaws, if someone posted it upthread Im sorry, can't remember where I first saw it!

warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 04/06/2022 12:37

@RedToothBrush it's an impossible situation. According to @Ijsbear excellent stats, 14 million Ukrainians are displaced (some will be internally) but that's still a huge number to absorb in societies where housing is already overstretched. I don't know the answer. I don't think we are very good at 'sharing life' anymore. Everyone seems to be at capacity for one reason or another. I do think a buddy system for hosts or some other specific host support needs to happen and quickly. The problem is extrapolating a model nationally which means consistent support for all when quite frankly the appetite as well as resources will be variable.

minsmum · 04/06/2022 13:32

mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1532897424712286214 thoughts of a Ukrainian soldier on the front line in Donbas

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 04/06/2022 13:37

That young man in the video, almost still a boy, heartbreaking.

ScrollingLeaves · 04/06/2022 14:01

@minsmum · Today 13:32
mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1532897424712286214 thoughts of a Ukrainian soldier on the front line in Donbas

Only two of them there on that front line! It is wonderful that in spite of this he speaks of keeping sane by watching the nature around him like the bee nearby, and feeling the wind on his face and saying, “Life is amazing while you are still alive.” What a lesson.

He looks so young.

ScrollingLeaves · 04/06/2022 14:07

@notimagain · Today 12:10
About electronic warfare and jamming, coincidentally the ISW published this:
Ukrainian forces report that Russian electronic warfare (EW) units are increasingly threatening Ukrainian air reconnaissance in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are increasingly jamming all possible signals and hindering Ukrainian drone operation

Noted....Looks like the kopeck has finally dropped..

Thanks for the updates

What can UKraine do to keep using drones in the face of this? What use will the new drone from Lithuania/Turkey be if the Russians know how to jam the signals?

Natsku · 04/06/2022 14:09

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 04/06/2022 11:06

It is no small loss to have to abandon your native language. I am told that Ukrainian and Russian are similar but not at all the same.

Yes, here in Devon the centre focuses it's limited resources on the refugees and that is bound to relieve the hosts somewhat but I do worry about the long term stability of my Ukrainian friends' welfare once they arrive in the UK. I will be offering weekend breaks at ours for theirs and their hosts benefit. I do think a two layered host approach would be far more sustainable.

That's a good thing to do, weekend breaks will be good for hosts and guests alike. One of the two main organisations here that organises home hosting for refugees has a thing where you can either offer to be a main host or a relief host that takes guests for weekends or holidays to give the main host a break.

Natsku · 04/06/2022 14:12

minsmum · 04/06/2022 13:32

mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1532897424712286214 thoughts of a Ukrainian soldier on the front line in Donbas

Oh he's so young, and speaks so eloquently. Brought tears to my eyes. I hope he survives and lives to a ripe old age.

Ijsbear · 04/06/2022 14:19

The Kyiv Independent, [04/06/2022 14:43]
⚡️Ukrainian military shuts down Russian drone in Black Sea.

Odesa city council, citing Ukraine’s Operational Command South, reported that Ukraine shut down a Russian intelligence drone Forpost in the Black Sea. According to media reports, the Forpost drone is estimated at about $7 million.

The General Staff earlier said that Russian forces are facing a shortage of drones and they have started using the ones owned by the Ministry of Emergency Situations.

Maybe the jamming is going both ways

notimagain · 04/06/2022 14:27

What can UKraine do to keep using drones in the face of this? What use will the new drone from Lithuania/Turkey be if the Russians know how to jam the signals?

I think we need more details ( which we here don't need to know) to work out how significant this news is.

[speculate] You'd hope the military level drones such as Bayraktar have some degree of protection built in and it's only the more hobby level stuff that has been used at times that is vulnerable. It might be that the jamming only be effective when the drones are a relatively long distance from the operator, so they loose some capability to go a long way behind the front lines, but not all, there are probably all sorts of variables involved[/speculate]

I do know there has been unease expressed ever since day one at how much Uk drone footage was been getting out into the public domain.

It may have been good for PR but many (self included) were not convinced revealing so much was the smartest thing to do from a operational security POV.

minsmum · 04/06/2022 14:31

mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1533029605149401093 just destruction

katem98 · 04/06/2022 14:39

@minsmum I've saw a few reports of the above link saying that this church on fire is in Canada?

Natsku · 04/06/2022 14:44

It may have been good for PR but many (self included) were not convinced revealing so much was the smartest thing to do from a operational security POV.
Agree, some things are best kept a bit more quiet.

First refugees have arrived in my town, 30 of them, not all Ukrainian though because the centre is for all but I do find it a bit weird that they are housing Russians in the same building as Ukrainians (though I would of course assume Russian refugees are more likely to be anti-war)

blueshoes · 04/06/2022 14:47

minsmum · 04/06/2022 13:32

mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1532897424712286214 thoughts of a Ukrainian soldier on the front line in Donbas

My heart just broke. Just a bit older than my son. Heart of a lion, with kindness and sensitivity of a poet. Please don't die.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 04/06/2022 15:40

katem98 · 04/06/2022 14:39

@minsmum I've saw a few reports of the above link saying that this church on fire is in Canada?

I don't know where the building that is on fire is, but it seems the wrong shape to be the Sviatohirsk Cave Monastery.

Ijsbear · 04/06/2022 15:51

excellent twitter account twitter.com/lilygrutcher

Unfortunately the gains around Severodonetsk seem to have been lost again.

Euromaidan PR
@EuromaidanPR
The situation in #Severodonetsk thread from Yuri Butusov:
russian troops captured almost the entire city, and today they continued to attack all day, but met with desperate resistance from Ukrainian soldiers on the outskirts of several neighborhoods.

MagicFox · 04/06/2022 16:02

It's a (wooden) church in Donetsk and it's on fire because of Russian shelling

OP posts:
AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 04/06/2022 17:03

MagicFox · 04/06/2022 16:02

It's a (wooden) church in Donetsk and it's on fire because of Russian shelling

Thanks, MagicFox; I thought that Michael MacKay must have got it wrong.

Svyatogorsk for Sviatohirsk is a mistake it might be easy to make if one didn't happen to know what the latter is like.