Ukraine Invasion: Part 20

[HappyWinter]

Thanks to everyone for taking part in the thread.

To be fair, many satellites have been developed to see through clouds and even rooves

through rooves? wow

(and yay for the pre-Tolkein spelling of the plural of 'roof'!)

@Ijsbear

Thanks for this, I have trouble rationalising things sometimes. It's all just so bloody horrid, sickening in fact

It is. It's horrible, and heartbreaking and Putin has set the entire bloody world back by 60 years because of the knock on effects, and not only that but so many people are dead.

I can't help thinking that if we don't fight for Ukraine, it will end up as broken and devastated and sad as Chechyna and the ancient proud city of Aleppo.

It's just a whole lose lose situation for all involved I remember posting a panic thread when this all started and people were reassuring and saying that their family members in Ukraine were fairly calm etc and now look!

Latest From Russian State TV

Francis Scarr @francska1
As Russian state TV seeks a way to explain why the "special operation in Ukraine" is dragging on so much, there's more and more talk of a war being fought against Nato

RT boss Margarita Simonyan is the latest to make the claim (with subs)

@ScrollingLeaves

Are they so good in clear weather that it would be possible to see bodies being put into the mobile crematoriums?

Those that know for definite probably won't say until/unless it suits them, and the spooks never if ever provide example of their best work for the public to look at. You can get a clue of what might be possible by looking at the images that have been released to the public by the likes of Maxar Technologies and then extrapolate a little from to work out what might be possible.

However theory is one thing, imaging can be compromised by weather and other issues such as measures taken by the opposition to avoid their actions being witnessed.

Oliver Carroll @olliecarroll

New. Captured Putin buddy Victor Medvedchuk has been jailed by a Lviv court without right of bail pending trial. His only chance of freedom in the near future lies with the Kremlin.

Great post to kate @Ijsbear

Rocket launchers, howitzers, tanks, amphibious missiles, suicide drones, helicopters and more. Finally the flow of weapon to Ukraine is including some heavy stuff. More to come I am sure, more and faster. Slowly but surely the western world is in it to assist a Ukrainian victory.
twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1515365886193975297?t=CrGQgRMeP681Lo4rWvr1tQ&s=19

well yes Alexandra we can't give in, agreed. But the man has hinted at nuclear weapons. He also has a track record of fulfilling his threats

By actually facing that head on, there's more chance of handling it in as effective manner as possible than by running from the idea. Sometimes by hoping for the best but planning for the worst, you get further than by glossing over that the worst might happen

How do you face the threat of Nuclear war head on? we either retaliate or we don't? no halfway house.

Putin threatened nukes over Georgia and Crimea too, we have spent 15 years running away from him.

He is trying it over Finland but this time not their use, just where they'll be based, he is realising his threats are not quite as effective and needs to tone down the language.

The best way to deal with Putin is strength but tempered with diplomacy so its v important to maintain channels of communication and this is where Macron can do so (assuming he stays in power) the UK wont/can't and i 'm not sure where the US stands on talking to Russia or what channels they have open?

I did hope China would be more constructive, nuclear war will destroy them too, regardless of whether they take part or not & a european conventional war, wrecks their trade with the west.

www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/rusko-upozornilo-cr-ze-bez-jeho-souhlasu-nesmi-poskytnout-sovetske-zbrane/2193406
Russia warned the Czech Republic that it could not provide Soviet weapons without its consent

Prague - Russia warned the Czech side in a diplomatic note that it could not provide weapons of Soviet origin to third countries without its consent. The Minister of Foreign Affairs Jan Lipavský (Pirates) told ČTK. According to him, the Czech ministry will not react. This is factual nonsense and there is no clause on this material prohibiting its re-export, he said. This is factual nonsense and there is no clause on this material prohibiting its re-export, he said. According to Defense Minister Jana Chernochova (ODS), Russia's claim is just another brazen attempt to discourage Western countries from helping Ukraine

1990 never happened in Moscow.

Sovereignty is an alien concept. All former Soviet states and satellite colonies still belong to Moscow.

Russian Sanctions in action:

Boris Johnson @BorisJohnson
I updated my friend @ZelenskyyUa this afternoon on further military aid we will provide to Ukraine in the coming days.

The UK will stop at nothing to ensure Ukrainians have the resources they need to defend their country from the ongoing Russian onslaught. #StandWithUkraine️

Volodymyr Zelenskyy @UAZelenskyy
I continued dialogue with UK PM @BorisJohnson. The agreements reached during his recent visit, primarily on defense and macro-financial support, were discussed. I briefed UK PM on the situation at the front, in particular in Mariupol. We are working on security guarantees for Ukraine

(anyone else feeling an eyebrow raise about the fact the situation in Mariupol is of particular concern?)

he is realising his threats are not quite as effective and needs to tone down the language.

uh ... no. You're speaking as if he's interested in negotiation and peace. He isn't. Austria's Chancellor met him face to face and said he was intransigent.

How do you face the threat of Nuclear war head on? we either retaliate or we don't? no halfway house.

Plenty of grey around. It's not black and white. You assess your opponent, you stand up to him, you give way a bit, you stand up and he gives way a bit.

As someone said upthread a long time ago, Russians adore Chess.

i 'm not sure where the US stands on talking to Russia or what channels they have open?

there's a direct hotline between the two leaders. But of course, Russia would have to be interested in talking.

I did hope China would be more constructive There have been a lot of analyses of China's stance on the whole business throughout these threads. They are worth a read.

Pjotr Sauer @PjotrSauer
First footage of the rescued Moskva crew in Sevastopol. No information yet regarding casualties
twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1515369619497828359

Jimmy @JimmySecUK
It's difficult to tell exactly how many crew this is - I'd estimate around 100 to 120 - but it definitely isn't the Moskva's full complement of around 500.

There's obviously also no definitive proof these men were actually from the Moskva, although I suspect someone is already running a facial recognition check on some of the clearer faces, and we'll know soon enough.

[quote DuncinToffee]Rocket launchers, howitzers, tanks, amphibious missiles, suicide drones, helicopters and more. Finally the flow of weapon to Ukraine is including some heavy stuff. More to come I am sure, more and faster. Slowly but surely the western world is in it to assist a Ukrainian victory.
twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1515365886193975297?t=CrGQgRMeP681Lo4rWvr1tQ&s=19[/quote]
I can't understand the advantage of making this public knowledge.

Something looks wrong with that clip. The attitude is wrong.

Well, one advantage is showing Putin that the West are ramping up, rather than easing off, with weapons deliveries. Which would have a psychological impact on him - as well as on Russian troop morale. It may also make him rethink that his ambitions (of taking Kyiv, for example).

Another is that it either shames or encourages other counties to follow suit.

@Ijsbear

Something looks wrong with that clip. The attitude is wrong.

They all look pretty healthy for guys that survived two missiles and / or a fire that was so severe it caused their ship to sink.

Reporter in Moscow describing what people there believe about the war

Moscow right now. Russian government building is on left. On right the building is emblazoned with the Z which is now synonymous with Russia’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine. I’ve spoken to so many people here who support it - they believe Ukraine is full of fascists.
twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1515375030175248395?t=9OSwq5QUId42EVJmlZspgg&s=19

Kyiv Independent
Denisova: Russian-controlled proxies conscript kids to fight against Ukraine.

According to Ombudsman Lyudmyla Denisova, Russian proxies in the occupied parts of Luhansk Oblast conscript 16-17-year-old children.

Several deaths among teenagers are already confirmed, she says.

I have not seen it mentioned anywhere else but horrific if true

As Russian state TV seeks a way to explain why the "special operation in Ukraine" is dragging on so much, there's more and more talk of a war being fought against Nato

So that's what they fear most then ?

Spring is quite advanced in Sevastopol.

I can't understand the advantage of making this public knowledge.

Who says it's true ? Who says it's even possible ?

That said, one defining characteristic of this war has been the speed and depth and breadth of secret information being supplied to the media. As the BBC analysis of a few weeks ago suggests the Iraq debacle has changed things. No dodgy dossiers here. Unlike let's-keep-repeating-the-past-Putin, western intelligence agencies have learned from it.

This is what is so curious about Putins obsession with the USSR - they failed for fucks sake. Big time. It's a little like a recently homeless pig deciding that they will give straw another chance.

@RedToothBrush

Pjotr Sauer *@PjotrSauer* First footage of the rescued Moskva crew in Sevastopol. No information yet regarding casualties twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1515369619497828359

Jimmy @JimmySecUK
It's difficult to tell exactly how many crew this is - I'd estimate around 100 to 120 - but it definitely isn't the Moskva's full complement of around 500.

There's obviously also no definitive proof these men were actually from the Moskva, although I suspect someone is already running a facial recognition check on some of the clearer faces, and we'll know soon enough.

The trees in the clip are a mix on conifers and deciduous. The deciduous branches indicate just coming into leaf growth. That would be about right for this time of year in that location. The shadows are also about right given the latitude.

The weather may be a give away. Past weather reports indicate partly cloudy during the day on 15/04 and 16/04 in that location and this looks to have been filmed around midday, give or take two hours.

The uniforms will be from stock. I doubt they are their own. The sailors could be from anywhere.

Cannot discredit the video. The nexus is right. We just won’t know though.

@katem98 whilst I don’t think it’s impossible I don’t think it’s imminent. I agree with @ljsbear I would hope if anything like that were to happen the rest of the world probably also would be opposed to a nuclear winter and their trading partners being wiped out so you’d hope someone would at least try to step in…but I don’t think it’ll happen this evening so I’m still planning on cracking open a bottle of wine and enjoying myself with loved ones ☺️

[quote YorkshireLondonMiss]**@katem98* whilst I don’t think it’s impossible I don’t think it’s imminent. I agree with @ljsbear* I would hope if anything like that were to happen the rest of the world probably also would be opposed to a nuclear winter and their trading partners being wiped out so you’d hope someone would at least try to step in…but I don’t think it’ll happen this evening so I’m still planning on cracking open a bottle of wine and enjoying myself with loved ones ☺️[/quote]
Thank you. Great minds think alike, I'm too about to crack a bottle open. I think it's needed!

@DGRossetti
Love the pig and straw analogy!