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Ukraine Invasion Part 18

999 replies

Ijsbear · 02/04/2022 14:10

Place for information, discussion, points of view, useful links and above all, a hope that this sovereign land can regain its freedom.

OP posts:
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15
notimagain · 06/04/2022 13:00

Finally! Hopefully jets will follow. I think NATO is going to start breaking down walls now & start sending what is being asked. I heard missiles were being sent too. Why can’t someone anonymously buy the Jets from Poland and just push them over the border

Tanks - makes sense, rumoured to be T-72s of a slightly better variant than the Ukraines have been using (e.g. bettervnight vision fit) so a pretty much a perfect fit and minimal if any retraining needing.

Jets - groan , I’m not going to do a TL; DR yet again on why that is not anything like as easy thing to do…think logistics, training, weapons fits,

Mind you if this war turns into a long one it might become much more of a possibility..

Shuuu · 06/04/2022 13:09

@notimagain

Finally! Hopefully jets will follow. I think NATO is going to start breaking down walls now & start sending what is being asked. I heard missiles were being sent too. Why can’t someone anonymously buy the Jets from Poland and just push them over the border

Tanks - makes sense, rumoured to be T-72s of a slightly better variant than the Ukraines have been using (e.g. bettervnight vision fit) so a pretty much a perfect fit and minimal if any retraining needing.

Jets - groan , I’m not going to do a TL; DR yet again on why that is not anything like as easy thing to do…think logistics, training, weapons fits,

Mind you if this war turns into a long one it might become much more of a possibility..

Jets - I’m sure I have seen somewhere the jets that were offered were almost identical to the ones the Ukrainians are trained with. Unless I’m mistaken.

If you don’t want to explain again, then don’t. Not everybody has the time to read through the whole thread.

Thanks for your response.

DGRossetti · 06/04/2022 13:16

If only we hadn't scrapped the Harrier.

TheABC · 06/04/2022 13:16

I understand that the Russian army is knackered and potentially struggling. However, the same must be true of the Ukrainians, especially as they are a smaller force. We can keep supplying the ammo and rockets but what happens when we run out of soldiers?

Saltedeggplant · 06/04/2022 13:25

I’m sure I have seen somewhere the jets that were offered were almost identical to the ones the Ukrainians are trained with. Unless I’m mistaken.
Not just training, but parts, maintence supply line of these older craft also they're being used to replace wrecked ones, we're they wrecked in the sky (lost pilot) or on the ground (how will you keep new ones safe) this article does a good job at explaining foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/14/ukraine-poland-jets-fighters/

notimagain · 06/04/2022 13:37

@Shuuu

Sorry I didn’t want to cut you off but I’ve had about three or bites at this (one of my very few specialist subjects) and given the general response I have to assume I’m doing a bad job of explaining the problems….but TBF I’ll give it another go:

Jets - I’m sure I have seen somewhere the jets that were offered were almost identical to the ones the Ukrainians are trained with. Unless I’m mistaken

“Almost identical” can be meaningless in this context… the type that keeps coming up is the MiG-29 - that was produced in it’s hundreds plus and subsequently modified by many air forces using different sub-contractors (e.g. SAAB, or the Israelis) to different standards over it’s lifetime. That means one nations Mig 29 may well be utterly unlike another nations MiG-29, despite what it says on the tin.

If somebody can provide MiG-29s with the exact match to those the Ukrainians are flying all well and good…that would be great.

If they can’t provide pretty much exact clones then handing them over is almost pointless unless you are able to retrain the Ukranian pilots on the new variant….and that might take weeks if not months, depending on the magnitude of the differences.

So…if we’re thinking short war I’m not sure handing over jets is a panacea…if OTOH we are now looking at a long war and there is time to retrain pilots, maybe and preferably away from contested airspace, then the idea might have some merit.

HTH.

RedToothBrush · 06/04/2022 13:44

The tanks have apparently already GONE to Ukraine. They also have offered to repair tanks outside Ukraine etc which is a big thing.

Re jets: the whole point was to give them ones they could fly and don't need training for.

Some interesting updates

On Kherson:
Zarina Zabrisky @ZarinaZabrisky
#Kherson. Ukrainian Army liberated three settlements. - the head of the Kryvyi Rih military administration Alexander Vilkul. UA is already on the outskirts of Kherson. Within a radius of 20 km, heavy fighting for the city. - Kherson regional council deputy Sergei Khlan.

Tim White @TWMCLtd
#Ukraine has recaptured some villages in #Kherson region. It's still not clear if Presidential spokesman Arestovich was serious about Russia preparing to hand over the city itself.

Meanwhile a Kherson councillor, Serhiy Maksymenko has been abducted by Russian soldiers.

Arestovich is a Ukrainian Presidential spokesman as its not entirely clear from that tweet. I don't know what to make of this at all.

The Ukrainians apparently are still worried about activity at the airport in Transnistria in Moldova and an apparent threat from Odesa from the opposite direction to Kherson, so it doesn't necessary tie up well.

On Wheat:
Zarina Zabrisky @zarinazabrisky
#Zaporizhzhya region. Russian soldiers steal agricultural machinery and materials for sowing. -the head of the regional military administration.

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2
Russia is actively disrupting agricultural harvests in Melitopol by seizing equipment and mining fields

This conduct risks creating man-made famines in the Global South

Beyond creating food insecurity in eastern Ukraine, these tactics could be aimed at bolstering wheat prices and providing hard currency for the Russian economy. Medvedev said Russia won't sell wheat to the West, so this is coming straight out of the coffers of the Global South.

Multiple sources seem to be saying this is now official policy of Russia...

On war crimes:
Zarina Zabrisky @zarinazabrisky
#RussianWarCrimesInUkraine Around 5,000 Russian war crimes under investigation in Ukraine. “Even in such a cruel situation, war crimes are first on the spectrum, followed by crimes against humanity and genocide.”- Prosecutor General of Ukraine Iryna Venediktova

Lots of talk that there will be a lot more that comes out today. Seems to be a number of journalists going to Borodyanka (the place said to be worse than Bucha) today.

On EU:
Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2
BREAKING: The EU says it should explore avenues to grant asylum to defecting Russian soldiers

Lots of people have suggested this previously. I am not entirely sure how this is feasible after whats been reported in the media this week.

On things going on in Russia:
Tim White @TWMCLtd
Wow. Just read that #Russia's doctors, medics, even hospital janitors are being forced to donate to country's war chest.

Remarkably #Putin's quietly signed a new law to deduct cash from salaries of all employees of the Federal Medical & Biological Agency
thebell.io/rossiyskim-medikam-predlozhili-podderzhat-dengami-zhiteley-dnr-i-lnr

Translation via google:
Russian medics offered to support victims with money on the territory of the "special operation"

Medical workers from the Federal Medical and Biological Agency (FMBA) were asked to allocate several thousand rubles from their salaries as a donation to help the victims on the territory of the "special operation". This was reported to The Bell by four FMBA doctors from different regions of Russia, who asked for anonymity. Three of them said that the management insisted on signing applications to deduct funds from salaries.

and

Heads of departments asked to sign applications for "deduction from the salary of donations" in a mandatory manner - there was no talk of voluntary fundraising, according to four health workers from the FMBA, who spoke with The Bell. "The department heads explained to us that they had to provide 100% coverage: from the janitors to all the department heads," one of the medics told The Bell. Those who did not agree to donate money were sent "for a personal interview with the chief physician," said another employee of one of the FMBA agencies. "Either a signature or goodbye. Of course, everyone signed. Now the work is not scattered, "he said.

Tim White @TWMCLtd
Not #Ukraine, but interesting #Russia news.

Some may remember huge protests every week in the very far east of #Russia over rigged local elections. Covid stopped the protests.

Well now the guy stopped from becoming governor of Primorsky Krai, Andrey Ishchenko, has been arrested

^Ishchenko beat Govt candidate Tarasenko in election to be governor of Primorsky, yet somehow lost by 1.5%, it led to huge protests.
The election was re-held but he was barred from running. Now he's in jail for "fraud"^
More protests in the far east?

Kamil Galeev was hinting at something to do with problems with the far east but so far hasn't elaborated too much. He had said that sanctions would put pressure on the governors though... Interesting to see this.

On wider impact outside Europe:
Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2
Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on a possible rapprochement with Greece:

"We can say that the channels of dialogue with Greece are more open today than ever before"

Tim White @TWMCLtd
Not sure if this is significant or not, but #India has been tacitly supporting #Russia despite the illegal war.

But now the nation's airline has cancelled flights on the Delhi-Moscow route.

DGRossetti · 06/04/2022 13:45

preferably away from contested airspace,

The A in AUKUS is interesting as you could lose several countries inside Australia with nobody any the wiser.

notimagain · 06/04/2022 14:08

Re jets: the whole point was to give them ones they could fly and don't need training for.

And the whole point is maybe they are like unicorns…they don’t exist.

By way of example of how this works- the F-4 Phantom springs to mind. built in it’s thousands, operated by dozens of NATO airforces, yet the RAF (and RN for a time) managed to have a completely unique version of the machine….for example nobody else in the world had the same engine fit.

A F-4 pilot from a foreign Air Force coming to the RAF on exchange had to do about 6 months of differences and Uk specific training before being operational on an RAF machine…

Alexandra2001 · 06/04/2022 14:13

@eglantine7

We absolutely should not be taking these nuclear threats seriously enough to allow genocide. Red lines have been crossed from the start. We are so toothless and it's not right.
Absolutely, when the history books are written about this, we will all have to hang our heads in shame.

Even now, knowing what we do know, we do nothing about the Black Sea, we don't supply the weapons the Ukrainians need (nor starting training programs on the ones they have to have to protect Odesa)
the USA have Harpoon II land launched anti ship missiles.

I firmly believe that had Putin attacked a NATO country, whilst at the same time threatening Nuclear, article 5 would very quickly get ignored.

To top it all, after weeks of being told "We are hitting Russia with sanctions etc etc" now find out that there are plenty more they can do on finance, banking, hi tech and oil exploration FFS

ClaudineClare · 06/04/2022 14:33

God, I made the mistake of going down a Twitter rabbit hole after seeing a tweet from a bellend by the name of @mattletiss7
(some former footballer).

The covid deniers, anti-vaxxers etc now all seem to have become war crime deniers (I guess a lot of them are also Russian bots). It is absolutely sickening and makes me want to delete my Twitter account.

Igotjelly · 06/04/2022 14:37

On the one hand there are clearly Russian bots and genuine idiots, on the other hand I wonder how much of it is people being unable to comprehend or digest the truth. Social Media is a dangerous echo chamber for many.

Ijsbear · 06/04/2022 14:41

Poor education to think critically and for thinking of long term consequences.

Mistrust of govts - with considerable reason in many cases, admittedly.

Some strange idea that we are fundamentally nicer than we were in our grandparents' times and that we are not capable of savagery, when put into the wrong circumstances.

Again, poor education to think critically and in terms of long term consequences.

OP posts:
Saltedeggplant · 06/04/2022 14:43

on the other hand I wonder how much of it is people being unable to comprehend or digest the truth. Social Media is a dangerous echo chamber for many.
I think its a huge part of it, weirdly the Internet in all its vastness has made some conspiracy type peoples world very small, they can easily engage who also believe these conspiracy theories and the group becomes bigger but no outside views, just the same nonsense. Back before how easily accessible the net is, you couldn't spend all day every day conversing with the most insane conspiracy lies unless you were in a cult.

HappyWinter · 06/04/2022 14:44

There's a cross over between the covid deniers, anti-vaxxers and now war crime deniers, I suspect they are mostly bots (covid denial and anti-vaxxer coverage tailed off sharply just as the invasion of Ukraine started, it's suspicious timing) and their purpose is to try and destabilise other countries covertly. Just think about how much division there is on covid and climate change, and then think about who that is good for. Whilst we are busy fighting each other, there is no time to notice what Russia is up to. They need other countries to be divided, because it makes those countries weaker.

ClaudineClare · 06/04/2022 14:46

@Igotjelly

On the one hand there are clearly Russian bots and genuine idiots, on the other hand I wonder how much of it is people being unable to comprehend or digest the truth. Social Media is a dangerous echo chamber for many.
I think you might have a point. I have seen some stuff today that I honestly wish I hadn't seen. It would be comforting to convince myself it is all made up.
Alexandra2001 · 06/04/2022 14:59

There's a cross over between the covid deniers, anti-vaxxers and now war crime deniers

^this :( add in brexitiers too, the most ardent cv and anti vaxxers i know are anti EU... few though deny war crimes in Ukraine, though why Bojo can't say its a Genocide is beyond me....

I doubt his opinion will compromise any trials.

DGRossetti · 06/04/2022 14:59

Absolutely, when the history books are written about this, we will all have to hang our heads in shame.

Pastor Niemoller again ...

DuncinToffee · 06/04/2022 15:13

@Alexandra2001

There's a cross over between the covid deniers, anti-vaxxers and now war crime deniers

^this :( add in brexitiers too, the most ardent cv and anti vaxxers i know are anti EU... few though deny war crimes in Ukraine, though why Bojo can't say its a Genocide is beyond me....

I doubt his opinion will compromise any trials.

No leaders, apart from Zelenskyy, have called it a Genocide yet, I assume there must be reasons for that.

Has Johnson at least called it a War Crime?

DGRossetti · 06/04/2022 15:58

Rather than refusing to sell, I'd put a 100% levy on the goods and send it to Ukraine while at the same time letting Moscow know whose money it was so they can be arrested for treason when (if !) they return to Russia.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-socialites-shopping-dubai-fuming-26630585

Wealthy Russian socialites fleeing the war to shop in Dubai are outraged that Chanel has refused to sell them their favourite accessories.

BoreOfWhabylon · 06/04/2022 16:04

ablistering speech by Guy Verhofstadt
"Your strategy of incremental sanctions doesn’t work. Cannot work…"

twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1511667812137377804?s=20&t=mf_rNbdNLGrivzul3Bh1HA

DuncinToffee · 06/04/2022 16:09

Biden is making a direct link between Bucha and new US sanctions

I made clear that Russia would pay a severe and immediate price for its atrocities in Bucha. Today, along with our Allies and partners, we’re announcing a new round of devastating sanctions.
twitter.com/POTUS/status/1511715451738464256?t=TrjBH8lXipamdrQrB9DOUg&s=19

Including two daughters of Putin

DuncinToffee · 06/04/2022 16:15

Bit of a cop out from Chanel
“Next, the manager said that starting from today they were selling to Russians only if they sign an agreement not to wear their items in Russia.”
Hmm

HappyMaltesers · 06/04/2022 16:17

@notimagain Thankyou for your posts about the fighter jets! I had no idea just how different they could be... kind of assumed that all the ones with the same name would be really similar with only small changes to suit each country.
I never needed to think about it before but it makes total sense that nobody is going to want everyone else to know exactly what their capabilities are, so everyone does their own custom thing hoping to have the best version!

ScrollingLeaves · 06/04/2022 16:18

“”DuncinToffee

Bit of a cop out from Chanel
“Next, the manager said that starting from today they were selling to Russians only if they sign an agreement not to wear their items in DuncinToffee

Bit of a cop out from Chanel
“Next, the manager said that starting from today they were selling to Russians only if they sign an agreement not to wear their items in Russia“

Yes, and they also apologise profusely.