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Ukraine Invasion Part 14

999 replies

MagicFox · 17/03/2022 14:49

New thread

OP posts:
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25
ChardonnaysPetDragon · 17/03/2022 17:21

Blimey, what happened on the previous thread?

The scaremongering was BAD.

PestorPeston · 17/03/2022 17:22

considered analysis takes time and is what specialised journalists and academics are paid for.

Should we only be able to use peer reviewed reports ?

Unsubstantiated stuff from twitter is usually described as such and then discussed and analysed.

LaDoIceVita · 17/03/2022 17:25

@Goldenbear

'Analysis' - yes but not tea leaf reading. Arguably there is lots of cut and paste of information from all over the Internet. The data from the flight app is just that, 'data' there is no analysis, there is certainly opinion but that is not the same thing and there is an attempt to apply meaning to that data which is guesswork.
Opinion and guesswork are usually accepted on discussion forums and I've never seen anything to suggest that MN is different in that respect.
Igotjelly · 17/03/2022 17:26

Sometimes the analysis on these threads is really thorough, other times it seems to go from planes taking off to us being at imminent risk of nuclear attack. Unfortunately I think it’s fear feeding fear.

holliem91 · 17/03/2022 17:29

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

I've been at work today and when I read some of the posts on that last thread I just went numb and couldn't communicate with anyone! I feel a lot better now people have rationalised it all.

AgnesWestern · 17/03/2022 17:34

Saw this on Twitter:

Russia warns Bosnia and says it will also face the same fate as Ukraine if it decides to be part of NATO

Was Bosnia going to join NATO?

LaDoIceVita · 17/03/2022 17:35

@Igotjelly

Sometimes the analysis on these threads is really thorough, other times it seems to go from planes taking off to us being at imminent risk of nuclear attack. Unfortunately I think it’s fear feeding fear.
I see it the other way round. Somebody posts and suggests things aren't looking good in one or more ways and that's immediately seized on as 'You mean nuclear?'. I appreciate that for some posters nuclear war is the biggest (possibly the only) concern but that isn't the case for everyone. People are free to post as they wish and that includes speculating about the future.
ChardonnaysPetDragon · 17/03/2022 17:36

Unfortunately I think it’s fear feeding fear.

Analysis is all fine, but what we seem to have here, earlier today and a couple of day ago, was speculation , presented as analysis, feeding fear.

Shuuu · 17/03/2022 17:37

@AgnesWestern

Saw this on Twitter:

Russia warns Bosnia and says it will also face the same fate as Ukraine if it decides to be part of NATO

Was Bosnia going to join NATO?

How much power does Russia have?! Are they capable of invading Ukraine, Finland & Bosnia. This is getting stupid.
Igotjelly · 17/03/2022 17:38

@Shuuu they’re barely capable of invading Ukraine alone!

holliem91 · 17/03/2022 17:39

I've just read this comment on another forum and thought it might help some regarding the nuclear worries. It's helped me so I wanted to share so others with similar anxieties surrounding this can read...

"Unless there's some unforseen psychology or physical ailment Putin has that we don't know about, he will not risk the world, let alone his country to nuclear annihilation. So this business about him putting us in our place is purely symbolic, and part of his rhetoric. He wants us to fear him, but since the start of this conflict, he's lost that element against the rest of the world.

The only way I see him pressing the big red button is something akin to an order Hitler gave when he knew he had lost. He ordered his commanders to destroy everything, bridges, roads, infrastructure, anything the bore any resemblance to his dystopia. Sort of "my country failed me so it shouldn't exist."

Russia is far from this point, despite all the sanctions.

A lot of people see WW3 as a nuclear war, and while there is the very real possibility that it will be, at least to some limited capacity, I think countries will actively try to steer away from the use of nuclear weapons. They will all want to come out on top, and they can't do that over a pile of radioactive ruble rubble."

"By the time he's desperate enough to use nukes, he's lost the support of the military and they're not going to let him launch one."

notimagain · 17/03/2022 17:40

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

Unfortunately I think it’s fear feeding fear.

Analysis is all fine, but what we seem to have here, earlier today and a couple of day ago, was speculation , presented as analysis, feeding fear.

Do you have any posters in mind?
ChardonnaysPetDragon · 17/03/2022 17:41

Oh no, not doing that.

I've said my thing.

Shuuu · 17/03/2022 17:41

[quote Igotjelly]@Shuuu they’re barely capable of invading Ukraine alone![/quote]
Exactly! Perhaps it’s time Finland, Bosnia, Georgia & Ukraine announced they’d make there way to the Russian border if he continues to threaten other countries

RedToothBrush · 17/03/2022 17:45

@AgnesWestern

Saw this on Twitter:

Russia warns Bosnia and says it will also face the same fate as Ukraine if it decides to be part of NATO

Was Bosnia going to join NATO?

Geography issue here: How is Russia going to invade Bosnia?

There are EU forces IN Bosnia on a peacekeeping mission following the war. They are not large but they are there. They have a mandate without NATO under the peace accord. And these forces were recently beefed up admit concerns about Russia and Ukraine destabilising.

Serbia is caught up in the Russian economic meltdown. It has close ties with Russia and has some economic backing.

But this goes down the toilet if Russia is economically screwed. And Serbia isn't in a 'no war' media blackout.

I'm not seeing Serbia in any great rush to attack Bosnia after the Russian military collaspe. Some stirring up shit is possible. Full scale war? No.

wonderfullife123 · 17/03/2022 17:48

Chinese state media reporting Russian war crimes in Ukraine... 👀

JimmySecUK on Twitter twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1504513334560927745?t=IR7Y7HV0Ppu7XhAE-XS_-g&s=19

CaveMum · 17/03/2022 17:48

Thanks for the new thread.

Goldenbear · 17/03/2022 17:51

'The medium is the message' so it does matter, it matters quite a bit and it is particularly ironic that this is not understand.

husbandsmellshelp · 17/03/2022 17:52

Thanks

shreddednips · 17/03/2022 17:55

[quote wonderfullife123]Chinese state media reporting Russian war crimes in Ukraine... 👀

JimmySecUK on Twitter twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1504513334560927745?t=IR7Y7HV0Ppu7XhAE-XS_-g&s=19[/quote]
Good, I hope this signals a change in China's stance. If true, I suppose the Lavrov plane mystery and Putin's apparent desperation slot into place.

This is just speculation, but I don't think China is going to provide any (significant) aid to Russia now. Xi has to choose between China's stability and his special friendship with Putin, I still think he'll ultimately choose stability. The US was right to be firm on this matter.

shreddednips · 17/03/2022 17:56

Although I'd be interested in what its Chinese language coverage says and whether it follows the same line

Alexandra2001 · 17/03/2022 17:57

Geography issue here: How is Russia going to invade Bosnia?

Quite!
Does Truss work for Putin?

Russia is struggling to deal with a far smaller force, armed with far superior weapons, if they want to get to Bosnia, they'll have to go through NATO countries first

Putin, is bluff and bluster, he threatened nukes in 2009, 2014 and 2022 but is also a long way from the Nuclear trigger.

notimagain · 17/03/2022 17:58

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

Oh no, not doing that.

I've said my thing.

Sorry, I shouldn’t have asked…

I just get the impression some posters get cut a lot of flex when it comes to “considered analysis”..others do it and they are guessing..

I’d best leave it there.

ScrollingLeaves · 17/03/2022 17:58

Thank you for thread 14.

MagicFox · 17/03/2022 17:59

@RedToothBrush @shreddednips et al: have you read those leaked FSB reports published on Twitter? @EsmaCannonball mentioned them in the previous threads. Just wondered what your thoughts on those were. The early ones seem quite prescient but the later ones a bit fear mongering. I suppose it's possible the West is meant to see them.

OP posts: