Ukraine Invasion Part 14

[MagicFox]

New thread

Is this the new power move, dissing RedToothBrush?

I find her posts extremely useful and informative, along with lots of other voices on political threads. They're a great resource. Never seen her or anyone else try to set themselves up as an "oracle". No need for cock-swinging, as t'were; there's plenty of that crap elsewhere (everywhere) on the internet and IRL.

TheABC

XenoBitch I think you’d feel reassured then by what’s trending there now. My comment was in no way meant to be goady. I often scroll through AIBU sometimes feeling a bit of a curtain twitcher but it’s all quite regular stuff there now.

@PestorPeston

I thought that signified 'Nuke' stuff? Why? If it was nuke stuff, their transponders would be off.

How about Putin feared a coup or was just sick of yes men, so he posted six generals to far off places. Those planes only just landed before they took off again.

Loads of other reasons are available for pondering.

Nobody, even the Russians are keen to use nukes.

Seemed strange that's all. I've kept seeing that all the 'government planes' are now in Siberia. Seems further away from Ukraine so could it be they are going to launch a tactical Nuke there and they are further away from the fall out?

Red, with fame comes responsibility

I think these threads do very well inspite of many things and reds gathering of Twitter stuff is the beating heart of them.

But it's a presentation of information.

Temur umarov @tumarov
Uzbekistan becomes the first Central Asian country to openly support the territorial integrity of Ukraine and condemn "military actions and agression"

Also increasing talk today that Kazakhstan told Putin to piss off.

Twitter has not done a great job of stopping disinformation so personally I would be wary of everything put out there.

I can't remember if it was posted already, but in case not The Terminator is going to save us all. I wonder if this is the first tentative steps towards a presidential campaign?

twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

From BBC, “imposter” claiming to be Ukraine PM spoke to Defence Secretary Ben Wallace:

16:49
'Imposter claiming to be Ukraine PM tried to talk to UK minister'

UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says an "imposter" claiming to be Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal tried to contact him.

"He posed several misleading questions and after becoming suspicious I terminated the call," Wallace wrote on Twitter, without providing further details.

In a follow-up tweet, he described the incident as "desperate".

Does beg the question how the call got through in the first place, I’m sure calls to Defence Secretary have to go through a switchboard.

@Goldenbear

Twitter has not done a great job of stopping disinformation so personally I would be wary of everything put out there.

Absolutely.

Where have you seen that @elephantmarchingin ? The majority of the planes turned round and went back to Moscow.

[quote elephantmarchingin]@RedToothBrush 'Planes do not go from Moscow and go back to Moscow if things are tickyboo. Especially with a very senior government official on board. Keep focused on that not the nuke stuff.'

Not too sure what you mean here? I thought that signified 'Nuke' stuff? [/quote]
Na. Panic in the ranks. Russian ones. Nkt Western ones.

Golden bear, we are all grown ups here who take personal responsibility for ourselves.
It's a chat forum.

It's not the NATO hot room discussing whether to invade Russia.
It's not a classroom teaching young minds.

It's ok to speculate, for some people to fear Nuclear war, to be fearful, it's ok to post without evidence because guess what.

This isn't an exam. It's a chat forum.

[quote elephantmarchingin]@RedToothBrush 'Planes do not go from Moscow and go back to Moscow if things are tickyboo. Especially with a very senior government official on board. Keep focused on that not the nuke stuff.'

Not too sure what you mean here? I thought that signified 'Nuke' stuff? [/quote]
No one knows what it signifies because we don't know why they were going there. It could have been a drill, disseminating important information to other officials in person, all sorts of things. It could have been a tactic to make everyone jumpy. But Western leaders clearly weren't jumpy about it, because they were still having meetings etc.

I think it's important to try and not jump to nukes every time a development occurs. There are lots of things that can happen that would bode ill for Ukraine that wouldn't spell nukes falling from the sky, so if posters seem concerned, it doesn't necessarily mean that they're concerned about that particular outcome.

I wonder whether, with pressure from all sides (China not playing ball, Central asian countries making dubious comments, the ICJ thing, Syrian fighters not materialising in the numbers hoped for etc) Putin has lost his last marble and tried to order a tactical nuke strike somewhere crazy like Kyiv or Chernobyl, and his generals/other officials have mounted some sort of resistance? Pure fantasy, but possible?

@PestorPeston

Just to show it can be done

Red I disagree, it can be done if it is deemed worth it.
Geography issue here: How is Russia going to invade Bosnia?
Fly in from Syria, round Greece and up the Adriatic Sea. Can be done if you are determined. Or by ship, where are those amphibian ship heading?

But to do that they'd have to pass through NATO airspace and NATO territorial waters. Wouldn't that be the same as putting one boot into NATO territory?

[quote PestorPeston]This appears to me to be the least efficient way ever to transport troops from presumably Siberia to Ukraine, I may be missing hot air balloons.

Japan's military said on Thursday that it had spotted four large Russian amphibious warfare ships sailing close to its islands as they travelled west, possibly towards Europe.
www.reuters.com/world/japan-spots-four-russian-amphibious-transports-sailing-far-east-2022-03-17[/quote]

Not sure how, if they are indeed planning on going to the Black Sea, they're going to get there as Turkey has said that they won't let vessels from any country through the Bosphorus Straits

Only exception would be any ships that are normally berthed in the Black Sea. Apparently three ships have already been refused entry on this basis. There was a 4th one that could have entered but stayed with the other three.

They're allowed to do this in a "war situation" under the Montreux Convention.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/02/turkey-closes-the-dardanelles-and-bosphorus-to-warships/

I really think some people are not benefiting one iota from following these threads. Of course nobody wants to think of nuclear weapons being used. But keep jumping to 'omg are we going to get nuked' whenever someone posts about a possible 'development' is just not rational or helpful
There's always a chance however small nuclear weapons may be launched. But that would not benefit anyone . Speculating drawing conclusions on sketchy information only hurts yourself. Seriously step away from it, do stuff you enjoy or that just takes your mind off doom. This is all totally out of our control and if something is going to effect us we will find out

I’m lost to how it originated on other thread, it was quite frantic

But I’m pleased if people are feeling calmer was a bit tense there for a moment

It's Goldenbear not Golden Bear. Yes, don't let a thing like 'truth' or substantiating your concerns get in the way. I find it quite alarming that people are so willing to find fact and opinion interchangeable, tbh this is one of the biggest threats to democracy and why we have sleep walked in to this situation.

@thebellsesmereldathebells

I wonder whether, with pressure from all sides (China not playing ball, Central asian countries making dubious comments, the ICJ thing, Syrian fighters not materialising in the numbers hoped for etc) Putin has lost his last marble and tried to order a tactical nuke strike somewhere crazy like Kyiv or Chernobyl, and his generals/other officials have mounted some sort of resistance? Pure fantasy, but possible?

At the very least, there must be real chaos when deciding how to proceed. I'm feeling more and more confident that China isn't going to pander to Putin now- I suspect that the American intelligence was correct, and that China had probably intended to go just far enough to keep Putin sweet while trying to play neutral. America has put the kibosh on that- China either has to go all in and help out come what may, or refuse, because they're under intense scrutiny and can't get away with anything covert. China might now be wondering how America came by that intelligence and to what extent it has established surveillance.

So, assuming I'm right (and I may well be totally wrong) and some of its other allies are also telling Russia to get stuffed, it must be real squeaky bum time for the people around Putin wondering how on Earth he's going to try to weasel out of this and whether he's planning to be reckless. They're aware that they could be held personally responsible for playing any part. I'd be really surprised if NOONE close to Putin is beginning to feel a coup coming on if those are indeed the circumstances, even if they wouldn't have dreamed of challenging him a week ago.

He's cornered and dangerous, which means he's also cornered and dangerous to the people around him too.

@DrBlackbird

Another way to relax/take a step back is to read what’s trending on AIBU on MN… kind of reassuring that what you might find there as the concerns and issues posted about now are not so dissimilar to what others have always posted about… like life carrying on.

To be fair, even in the event of imminent nuclear attack there would be AIBU posts. Probably along the lines of 'AIBU to be pissed off that DH has invited MIL and her yappy dog to share our bunker?'

Interesting one here where a flight from Moscow has gone right through nato airspace with no issues. One can only assume its been given clearance to do so?

Sorry image didn't attach.

@theyhavenothingbuttheaudacity

I really think some people are not benefiting one iota from following these threads. Of course nobody wants to think of nuclear weapons being used. But keep jumping to 'omg are we going to get nuked' whenever someone posts about a possible 'development' is just not rational or helpful There's always a chance however small nuclear weapons may be launched. But that would not benefit anyone . Speculating drawing conclusions on sketchy information only hurts yourself. Seriously step away from it, do stuff you enjoy or that just takes your mind off doom. This is all totally out of our control and if something is going to effect us we will find out

Couldn't agree more with this.

@RagzRebooted That gave me a well needed chuckle