Ukraine Invasion Part 12

[MagicFox]

I see the other thread is filling up so starting the twelfth...

@AgnesWestern
Take a complete break from the thread until tomorrow. Watch some Netflix or do something physical that demands some level of concentration (so you can't check your phone). Baking something or gardening works for me usually. Jigsaws also - bizarrely.
Don't beat yourself up for feeling anxious.

China doesn't know how this might end up... Russia using Chinese weapons to attack civilians? bring down a NATO plane? or even an civilian airliner.

Can't see it other than a ploy to get something from the Americans.

China always does whats best for China, a global recession, sanctions, isolation doesn't suit the needs of the Chinese for growth.

Then again Xi did make himself President for life didn't he, maybe he also believes he is a God?

I also agree with the previous poster who said that throwing out words like BAD out there without much explanation might not be that kind when people are obviously very worried. Unfortunately @RedToothBrush (or fortunately) you’re a very trustworthy poster to a lot of us so I think you might have the ability to make anxious posters panic more than others :)

I also agree with the previous poster who said that throwing out words like BAD out there without much explanation might not be that kind when people are obviously very worried

I agree, and posters need to remember that no one on this thread is party to the inner workings of the American, Chinese, Russian, Ukrainian or British governments. Anyone can state an opinion with an authority, but at the end of the day all of us are just anonymous people on a forum.

@AgnesWestern

I’m physically shaking, I feel like vomiting, will someone please calm me down?

Is it because of the nuclear issue that this would be really bad or because of sanctions? I’m going to come off this later tonight as I need to try and keep myself from having a breakdown, but can someone explain why it’s so bad? I know I sound stupid but I don’t quite understand it all completely.

My instinct is still that China will NOT provide weapons to Russia, but I really don't think there is cause to panic at the moment. It would be absolutely horrendous for Ukraine if it happened and I pray that China doesn't do it. But please don't feel like you're in danger, think of all the people busily beavering away behind the scenes to stop this from escalating.

This situation is like a rollercoaster. I wish I could give you a big hug. Please try to take a break from it, have a cup of tea and try to distract yourself with something comforting on the telly.

I wonder how the asking China for help is being reported in Russia, if it is at all ?

@meditrina in that case it would surely signify an even greater deviation from a usual pathway of abstention/refusal to commit to a side if they then jump to supplying arms and ways to evade sanctions when Russia is not in a position to offer them much in return at present.

@AgnesWestern Try and take a deep breath and take a break from the news for tonight. I'm not sure China will choose to get involved as will affect sales to their main markets. Financially, Russia isn't in a strong position and China will probably choose to follow the money as it will be best for their economy. I don't think Russia could replace their key markets (US, Europe...) and I'm not sure they will want to become embroiled in this.

@RedToothBrush

Noise on this is NOT good. Looks like China is about to make this go BAD....

The obvious glee here is distasteful.

Russia asks China for military assistance in its invasion of Ukraine

They can ask, just the way I ask the DCs to stop bringing coffee up to their rooms. It doesn't mean they will do it.

Still can't help thinking China are looking at Putin and thinking ODFOD.

Really can't see China going for this. China looks out for China. There's no real advantage in this for them that outweighs the disadvantages.

RedToothBrush have you drawn any conclusions about these last bits of news?

With respect to people who suffer from anxiety, gently please find ways of dealing with it. This thread is really for information sharing and practical discussions and it would be a shame if knowledgeable posters have to refrain from posting. It might be an idea to start a thread about worries over the war, and keep this thread more informative.

I was told it's possible that Turkey is keeping the air corridors open as they have asked Russia if they can remove trapped Turkish citizens in Mariupol, of whom apparently there are numbers.

@AgnesWestern I think acing posters who are usually level headed such as @RedToothBrush saying things are BAD are panic inducing.

Unfortunately @RedToothBrush hasn't explained what they meant by this!!!

This thread is really for information sharing and practical discussions and it would be a shame if knowledgeable posters have to refrain from posting.

I agree, which is why it irks me when certain posters say things "this is BAD" with no actual evidence, sources, or, frankly, a crystal ball.

It was the same with Brexit and with Covid. I want factual information. The above example isn't factual information.

China is having another COVID19 outbreak. I very much doubt they’ll get involved. They have their own issues now. They have too much money coming from the west to do this. Plus, China has seen how the world has responded to Russia I don’t think they’d want that heat, they’ll lose too much money

@Ijsbear 'This thread is really for information sharing and practical discussions and it would be a shame if knowledgeable posters have to refrain from posting'

Normally yes I'd agree but someone who clearly has a big part in the discussion that people have thought highly of saying something is 'BAD' in capitals is a bit shitty with no explanation

@StormzyinaTCup

I get the impression China don't want to be dragged into this and are trying to stay semi neutral as it’s in their own interest. Anyway, they have a big problem with an outbreak of Covid at the moment so would imagine (hope) focus is on that right now.

That would be my hope too.

They may struggle if they end up with lots of production shut downs (which is looking possible). They economically are facing a problem if that happens, that perhaps gives america a bit more leverage. (hopes).

I'm seeing reports that only 50% of the elderly are fully vaxxed and sinovac isn't performing as well as other vaccines anyway. There's next to no natural immunity. There's reports of City Heads disappearing. Basically, a zero covid policy is about to blow up in their faces in a bad way. As NZ found, it simply doesn't work but unlike NZ they didn't ensure they vaccinated properly.

So China has a lot of things going on and to consider right now.

@Chewibacka

This thread is really for information sharing and practical discussions and it would be a shame if knowledgeable posters have to refrain from posting.

I agree, which is why it irks me when certain posters say things "this is BAD" with no actual evidence, sources, or, frankly, a crystal ball.

It was the same with Brexit and with Covid. I want factual information. The above example isn't factual information.

Agree with all this.

@Ijsbear

RedToothBrush have you drawn any conclusions about these last bits of news?

With respect to people who suffer from anxiety, gently please find ways of dealing with it. This thread is really for information sharing and practical discussions and it would be a shame if knowledgeable posters have to refrain from posting. It might be an idea to start a thread about worries over the war, and keep this thread more informative.

I was told it's possible that Turkey is keeping the air corridors open as they have asked Russia if they can remove trapped Turkish citizens in Mariupol, of whom apparently there are numbers.

I completely agree with this, but also, posting "this will go BAD" without any knowledge sharing isn't helpful to anyone, really. When someone is obviously knowledgeable and has positioned themselves as something of an expert on the thread, with lots of people asking their opinions and hanging off their every word, there is then an element of responsibility needed in not posting things that are needlessly frightening to others - who have posted that they're very anxious - without any obvious insider knowledge or grounding that would give the supposition credibility.

If people respect your words generally then unfortunately they will often take your unfounded opinions as gospel truth. Hence why I don't feel the post mentioned was very sensible.

[quote Wrongkindofovercoat]**@Alwayscheerful* My take, Russia might ask China to bail them out and compensate them in commodities*

How do you think China will react to that ? What position would that put Russia in economically going forward ?[/quote]
It depend what Russia does with the US dollars. Russia are about to default on their bond payments.
Russia owe money to the countries currently freezing their assets.
The world economy is affected as much as Russia.

Sky news says Ukraine war: Russia says there has been substantial progress in peace talks and joint position could be reached soon. For those worrying please please stop it is not in anyone's interest to have a nuclear war, China are not stupid they will want this over as quickly as we all do as this will be impacting everyone's economy.

Highly doubt China would be getting involved in this way personally. Not their style surely. Just because Russia asks doesn't mean they are going to get.

People really need to stop deifying other posters on here. Not a single person on this thread is an expert.