Ukraine Invasion Part 12

[MagicFox]

I see the other thread is filling up so starting the twelfth...

@Chewibacka

People really need to stop deifying other posters on here. Not a single person on this thread is an expert.

I absolutely agree with this.

Absolutely @toastfiend @Chewibacka

Please be mindful of those with anxieties on this thread. 🙏

@Chewibacka

People really need to stop deifying other posters on here. Not a single person on this thread is an expert.

Yes.

It's quite simply all conjecture, presented as if it is fact.

Oh @AgnesWestern I also suffer from anxiety so I know what it feels like but please, make a hot drink, turn off the news and maybe put some relaxing music on.

China do not want nuclear war. Also it sounds promising that there are peace talks with Russia and Ukraine.

Sending you love

@Ijsbear

RedToothBrush have you drawn any conclusions about these last bits of news?

With respect to people who suffer from anxiety, gently please find ways of dealing with it. This thread is really for information sharing and practical discussions and it would be a shame if knowledgeable posters have to refrain from posting. It might be an idea to start a thread about worries over the war, and keep this thread more informative.

I was told it's possible that Turkey is keeping the air corridors open as they have asked Russia if they can remove trapped Turkish citizens in Mariupol, of whom apparently there are numbers.

If China get involved Russia can get a lot more weapons. At the moment I think this one of their biggest limiting factors. China can out produce the West. It also would put the West on more of a collision course with China. To me it pretty much would ultimately mean any chance Ukraine had, is gone. It blows it up into more of a World Issue. The whole dynamic of there being an arms race between China and the West in Ukraine isn't a good one on several levels.

It undermines the West's plan on a massive scale.

It looks like Turkey is doing a bit of an Israel here by being more neutral - my suspicion on this is that wheat is their big concern; more so than perhaps the US breathing down their necks. They are already making money from the war by selling drones to the Ukrainians.

In other news:
IAEA says Ukrainian regulator informed it that staff at Chernobyl no longer carrying out repair and maintenance of safety-related equipment, partly due to fatigue - Reuters

[quote AgnesWestern]**@MagicFox that’s a worrying article

I didn’t think he wanted war against NATO or else he would have attacked a NATO country directly surely? Why would he do all this messing around and pretending? Surely he could just do it.

I don’t know what to think right now and it’s making me feel physically uneasy. I hate the underlying uncertainty. I wish we could just see into the future.[/quote]
@MagicFox

He is a Researcher, Technologist, and Investor in Baltimore, Maryland. Public speaker, writer, podcaster.

So hardly an expert

Please be mindful of those with anxieties on this thread

I mean, I'm not "anxious" about WW3 etc, we're in a concerning time but I'm not suffering with anxiety because of it. But it's not just about anxiety.

These threads were a lot more factual early on, and now have reams and reams of speculation and opinion. Which of course is fine in a way, of course anyone can post what they wish - but you have to wade through them to get the more factual information.

I obv haven't read all the threads - or even the posts on this thread but just wanted to join in as no-one I know (as was said earlier) if talking about this much - although I am studying and don't get out much!!

My neighbour and I text each regularly as we both panic a bit but my DH & DS take it all their stride. My DH actually told me I was being irrational when I cried about being scared of a nuclear war . However, that was a day I had been watching the news non-stop and had got myself into a bit of a state.

I don't believe Putin will go nuclear but I do believe he is gearing up for some chemical attacks on Ukraine. I think he is so frustrated and ready to just blow everything to bits as he's losing face. My main worry atm is the poor souls stuck there - especially in Mariupol who have run out of food and water. It's beyond evil that they are not letting them escape through the humanitatian corridors. I just cannot stop thinking about it when I'm in bed and I've been waking up in the night worrying about them. Sadly I think this is one of Putin's ploys - to cause such death and destruction that they simply lose the fight....I am so in awe of the Ukrainian people, they are incredible - I bloody hope someone stages a coup soon in the Kremlin. I want Putin alive though - and to suffer for what he has done.

I

In fairness to @RedToothBrush.
If China were to help with the "war" it would be BAD and the report initially came from the Financial Times, another respected source.
There are plenty of reasons China will refuse to help and the reasons all include self interest. China will help China first.

I cannot see China getting too involved personally.

@RedToothBrush

You clearly follow a lot of people who peddle crap. I suggest you rectify this.

Actually it was this article that spurred me to look further but I do agree that The Gaurdian has lost its credibilty in recent years:

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/27/hunter-biden-joe-biden-president-business-dealings

Last Para first:

Turley said: “It’s how powerful ruling elites make much of their money, and Congress has never seriously tried to crack down on it. The children and spouses of powerful leaders continue to receive windfall payments from companies and foreign interests, but we’ve never quite seen the likes of Hunter Biden’s enterprises. His contracts go beyond anything we’ve seen before.”

"two witnesses called before a federal grand jury seated in Wilmington, Delaware, which is looking into the tax affairs of the president’s son, made the subject harder to avoid."

"On the political flip-side, House intelligence committee chair Adam Schiff said the laptop was a “smear” from Russian intelligence, and 50 former intelligence officials said it was probably Russian disinformation. Now, however, almost no one disputes its authenticity."

"But the larger question – beyond whether Hunter Biden correctly met tax obligations during a period in which, by his own telling, he was being paid $50,000 a month by Ukrainian firm Burisma – are Biden’s financial ties to foreign figures and businesses while his father served as Barack Obama’s No 2.

"n addition to Hunter Biden’s ties to Ukraine through the gas company Burisma, he has sat on the boards of BHR Partners, a private investment fund backed by a number of Chinese state entities; a hedge fund, Paradigm; a consultancy, Seneca Global Advisors; and the fundraising firm Rosemont Seneca.

I dont want to turn this into a Biden thread but I do not like to be patronised.

I think we just need to wait re China

Try not to stress too much, those who are finding it tough

The report was only about Russia "asking" for something.

The way Ukraine have been asking for a no fly zone.

Asking doesn't always
mean getting.

Btw, if Russia HAVE asked China for military help it once again backs up the idea that they are running out (which has been running for some days).

If China say No to them, its potentially good. We know Russia has limited options, and that might force them to the table.

If they say yes, Russia are not in such a corner and they have reason to negotiate. They just have to keep going til they get this help (which might take a while to arrive even with the best will in the world).

So what China says matters. They have now been put in a position where they get a say in the outcome pretty directly.

The idea of China being able to remain neutral therefore is blown out the water really. They are effectively being asked to pick a side.

Say No and they support Ukraine. Say Yes and they support Russia. There isn't much of a third option (I guess thats agreeing to a limited amount of military aid, but this still is effectively helping Russia not Ukraine)

@LoveCleanLaundry

Very fair point.

I mean, I'm not "anxious" about WW3 etc, we're in a concerning time but I'm not suffering with anxiety because of it. But it's not just about anxiety.

I think we just need to wait re China

Agree with this, too.

No point getting worked up at this stage.

BBC just now

At the risk of stating the bleeding obvious, Redtoothbrush is not the oracle.

If people want to take her word as gospel, that is their problem. She is allowed her own opinion and not obliged to rectify her views or justify her opinion to anyone FFS.

There is a Huge meeting in Rome tomorow so maybe this is a hard ball coming to the USA because they said publicy today - that they will not tolerate anyone giving Moscow a back route out of Financial sanctions.

Also, apparently Russia has been asking China since the start of the invasion. Perhaps this is why China if offering to assist with peace talks so they don’t have to suffer financial loss by taking sides. Don’t forget too the US is chinas biggest trading partner. I do believe chinas role in this is to remain neutral to prevent this from escalating & preventing financial loss from Russia or the west. Nobody needs to panic here, plus peace talks are looking promising. I’m a huge worrier too but I can see positives

"The report was only about Russia "asking" for something."
Precisely @ChardonnaysPetDragon doesn't mean they are going to get anything..

@RedToothBrush

Btw, if Russia HAVE asked China for military help it once again backs up the idea that they are running out (which has been running for some days).

If China say No to them, its potentially good. We know Russia has limited options, and that might force them to the table.

If they say yes, Russia are not in such a corner and they have reason to negotiate. They just have to keep going til they get this help (which might take a while to arrive even with the best will in the world).

So what China says matters. They have now been put in a position where they get a say in the outcome pretty directly.

The idea of China being able to remain neutral therefore is blown out the water really. They are effectively being asked to pick a side.

Say No and they support Ukraine. Say Yes and they support Russia. There isn't much of a third option (I guess thats agreeing to a limited amount of military aid, but this still is effectively helping Russia not Ukraine)

I agree with you that China is going to have to come off the fence soon. If it sticks with its current stance, it's going to piss off both sides.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/joe-biden-ukraine-china-jake-sullivan-russia-b2034820.html

President Joe Biden is sending his national security adviser for talks with a senior Chinese official in Rome on Monday as concerns grow that China is amplifying Russian disinformation in the Ukraine war and may help Russia evade punishment from economic sanctions.

The talks between national security adviser Jake Sullivan a.....

China has no issue with pissing off both sides.

I dont think unless they really go mad and openly supply Russia with weapons, it will always be a shady case of openly saying thing and doing another ie keep west happy - maybe soften the PR on the war to being more neutrual but - dont be surprised if you see " made in china" on any spent weapons.