Ukraine Invasion Part 12

[MagicFox]

I see the other thread is filling up so starting the twelfth...

Ah right from your post about noise I thought you’d heard something else. I also saw another article that said they’ve been asking since the beginning of the invasion and China so far haven’t helped so far.
Surely this would escalate things hugely if they did get involved with military assistance?

@RedToothBrush what are the implications if China say yes?
Is it that we’ll have to sanction them too?

Reported here www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7

I’ve also read it as Russia having asked/been asking China since the initial invasion? As PPs have said, surely China’s economic interests in the EU and US aren’t worth getting involved? The news of the talks between Ukraine and Russia sounded so positive too.

The FT hardline sounds alarming but it might be worth trying to get through the paywall and read the actual FT piece..I won’t do a C&P but as I read it:

1. It may well not be brand a new request,
2. It’s for equipment and other unspecified assistance
3. Possibly triggered by level of attrition to Russian materiel.
4. Might be an attempt to find a work around for sanctions.

Doesn’t sound to me as if at this stage the Russians have asked for Chinese boots on ground.

Reuters @Reuters
U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who is due to meet with China's top diplomat on Monday, warned Beijing that it would ‘absolutely’ face consequences if it helped Russia evade sanctions over the war in Ukraine

“Other US officials have also said there were signs that Russia was running out of some kinds of weaponry as the war in Ukraine approaches the start of its third week,” the FT report said

Optics not great on that for Putin's Russia , a special military operation that you can't keep going longer than three weeks without running out of stuff ? I thought Russia had loads of capability, had tons of natural resources and could make their own weapons forever and a day ? Now they need to ask China to sell them stuff whilst their economy nose dives ? Interesting.

Turkey will not join Western sanctions against Russia - Turkish Foreign Ministry

It has also left airspace open to Russia.

I'm only seeing reports that they're asking for equipment so far and nothing solid yet as to how China will respond. I don't think predictions that this is BAD are that helpful at this stage without any real foundation, especially on a thread where some people are known to be extremely anxious.

As far as I was aware it is about work around regarding sanctions, not to do with providing weapons or boots on the ground.

China deciding to provide military equipment would be a pretty big departure from its stance so far though wouldn't it? I thought it had recently refused to provide aircraft parts.

From what I understood, Russia has already been asking China to help it get round sanctions. Could this not be an attempt by Russia to force China to show its hand? I imagine knowing how far China is willing to go to support Russia would help Putin figure out his position ahead of negotiations. Watching on tenterhooks 😖

@Tuba437

As far as I was aware it is about work around regarding sanctions, not to do with providing weapons or boots on the ground.

Yes, I thought Russia had been asking China for help to cushion the financial blow and, therefore, assumed the US was sending out a strong message that anyone who helps Russia will be sanctioned too.

Several good. FT articles.
My take, Russia might ask China to bail them out and compensate them in commodities

I’m physically shaking, I feel like vomiting, will someone please calm me down?

Is it because of the nuclear issue that this would be really bad or because of sanctions? I’m going to come off this later tonight as I need to try and keep myself from having a breakdown, but can someone explain why it’s so bad? I know I sound stupid but I don’t quite understand it all completely.

They've not been overwhelmingly supportive of Russia so far. They've made a few supportive noises, but, fairly significantly, they abstained from the vote in the UN Security Council, so they weren't willing to show notable support to Russia then. It's quite a drastic change in position to go from that to supplying weapons and assisting them with evading sanctions.

@Alwayscheerful My take, Russia might ask China to bail them out and compensate them in commodities

How do you think China will react to that ? What position would that put Russia in economically going forward ?

Come off the thread and make yourself a herbal tea. I don't quite understand it either but my instinct is to say sanctions and also just another country getting involved. Please don't have a sleepless night over an FT article. It isn't breaking news anywhere xx

@AgnesWestern

I’m physically shaking, I feel like vomiting, will someone please calm me down?

Is it because of the nuclear issue that this would be really bad or because of sanctions? I’m going to come off this later tonight as I need to try and keep myself from having a breakdown, but can someone explain why it’s so bad? I know I sound stupid but I don’t quite understand it all completely.

I think it would be very, very bad for Ukraine. It would reduce the effects of sanctions on Russia's economy, which would not be a good thing. Please don't panic. Just wait and see, China's position has been really difficult to figure out. But a nuclear escalation would not be in China's interests either.

@AgnesWestern see my comment above, sorry didn't tag the first time. X

Nigel Gould-Davies @Nigelgd1
So in the past few days, Russia:
1. waiving usual standards to recruit for combat in Ukraine
2. seeking to recruit thousands of Syrian mercenaries
3. asking China for help.

Each one spells trouble. Together, they spell desperation.

Got to hope its desperation and China doesn't go with the idea.

@AgnesWestern calm down. Breathe. Slowly. Red Toothbrush is a great poster but they don’t know anything more than the rest of us. Saying things are BAD is an opinion and not fact. Other posters have pointed out what it also could mean - getting around sanctions.
China won’t want World War III any more than we do, that’s my opinion.

I think taking a break again would be worthwhile. I suffer with anxiety too so I sympathise.

I don’t think China can get involved didnt they make some kind of historic pledge to Ukraine?

China relies heavily on its trade, I don’t think they are going to put that at risk. But maybe I’m wrong. God I hope so.

Agnes ❤️ try to keep calm. We are ok here in the UK. I don't believe China would shoot itself in the foot helping the shit show that Putin has proved he is. China are also aware of the power of NATO should they ever wish to use it. They don't want that. They don't want to compromise their position.

I believe Putin will be taken out soon.

@toastfiend

They've not been overwhelmingly supportive of Russia so far. They've made a few supportive noises, but, fairly significantly, they abstained from the vote in the UN Security Council, so they weren't willing to show notable support to Russia then. It's quite a drastic change in position to go from that to supplying weapons and assisting them with evading sanctions.

China always abstains

I get the impression China don't want to be dragged into this and are trying to stay semi neutral as it’s in their own interest. Anyway, they have a big problem with an outbreak of Covid at the moment so would imagine (hope) focus is on that right now.