Ukraine invasion discussion thread part 11

[ScatteredMama82]

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4499310-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-10?pg=40

The Syrian fighters thing is ridiculous. These would be pro-Assad Syrian fighters, they are not impressive at all (Russia relied a lot on Hezbollah ground forces in Syria). They would mostly be cannon fodder.

Notice we're not hearing much about the Chechens anymore. A lot of them apparently have been killed and Kadyrov can't send all his best forces or his own regime becomes vulnerable.

This is another reason this whole war is so stupid for Russia, it creates an opportunity for people to challenge them in the Caucasus again.

Those saying it may come here…

Do you mean we’ll end up invaded? Or bombed like the blitz?
Or the nuclear thing?

Just wondering as I find I’m not sure what others are thinking.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

I think it's very optimistic to assume our nice normal lives will continue - they may well not. This war may well not stay in Ukraine. This is the most frightening time I can remember living through

I think this too. I grew up in the Cold War. It was nothing like this. It’s really scary.

I thought the Cold War was a lot scarier! But then I was in the US and we were convinced Reagan was crazy and was going to get us all nuked.

Honestly I would try not to worry too much. The chances of this war going beyond Ukraine are very very very slim. If there is any serious spillover it will be in the Balkans or the Caucasus, not the UK.

Also even if there is some limited fighting between NATO and Russian forces, this does not need to lead to a nuclear war. Did you know Turkey (NATO member) shot down a Russian fighter jet a few years ago? India and Pakistan have been at war for ages, they both have nuclear weapons, and yet they managed to fight some non-nuclear wars 20 years ago. Right now there are border skirmishes between India and China, again no nuclear war.

Obviously it is a very dangerous situation but personally I don't think people in the UK should be scared for themselves. Things are going to get even worse for Ukrainians, and that will be awful, but if you are here in the UK try not to let the anxiety overcome you.

I find you a very informed and calming presence on this thread @dreamingbohemian

"This is Ivan Fedorov, mayor of Melitopol, which is controlled by RU troops for several days. Today he was kidnapped with plastic bag on head from crisis center, where he continued to govern the city after he denied to work with occupants. Terror continues"

Tweet from Maria Zolkina

twitter.com/mariia_zolkina/status/1502306362960850949?s=21

Terrifying.

There's a snippet of CCTV showing the Mayor (I assume - obviously I don't know for sure) being led out.

I don't know if this has already been posted, but journalists are reporting that Ukraine is claiming the Russians carried out a false flag attack on a Belarussian border village earlier today.

@BlanketsBanned

Esma, what a load of absolute bollox, they also claim Ukraine and USA are developing bacteria and viruses carried by birds and fleas that only infect Russian and Slav people. They are just getting ridiculous and playing for time with more and more desperate pointless meetings.

So they mean Russian, Slav and Ukrainian people?

After all, we have it on good authority they are all one people.

Might have been mentioned already but the Moscow Times are providing English language up to date and insightful, independent news and it is not behind a pay wall but they would welcome contributions to keep operating. There are many Estonians and others in the Balkans etc who use this source for information
www.themoscowtimes.com/

Does anyone think the Russian army may be purposely doing a terrible job of this?

Thanks @MagicFox obviously I could be wrong about everything but I genuinely don't think there will be a nuclear war or WW3 or anything like that. I say that as someone who usually thinks the worst! (e.g. I did think Putin would invade to begin with)

There will be an economic impact in the UK and I don't want to minimise that, although that is not only down to the war. So yes it will be a tough year for everyone here I think, but not like nuclear apocalypse tough.

…Erm, how is a Moscow news outlet still producing independent news? Is it covering the war? Are it’s reporters outside of Russia?

@unname

Does anyone think the Russian army may be purposely doing a terrible job of this?

No. They're stuck there, the ordinary soldiers had no idea what they were getting into, many of them quietly disagree but I don't think all that many of them can be actively purposely doing a terrible job. They're under the direction of their officers, who must be much better trained and more committed.

They just seem to be undertrained, badly equipped and badly disciplined, far from home and in a war they had absolutely no idea was coming.

Bloody hell, now the Russians are claiming that the Ukrainians have been deliberately infecting the population with viruses

That'll be them projecting ahead of doing that very thing. Same tactics in Syria

Ahead? Just being a bit gloomy here

There is a lag between the release of a BW agent and the people infected becoming ill. And the use of BW can be undetectable until an unusual disease pattern becomes apparent.

It's a very uncertain weapon to use, especially if the people infected are also infectious, as they can carry the disease wherever they go. Also it suggests that the aggressor is planning a long campaign, as the effects can take days r weeks to take hold

Feelingbohemian, we were terrified of Reagan pushing the button too! And Thatcher would have been their helping him.

I still think it’s scarier though.

The evil-looking Russian guy at the UN is repeating the lie that the pregnant beauty-blogger injured in the hospital bombing was faking her injuries with make-up. This level of lying is breathtaking. It's almost comical, like those Kremlin hoods who had an unusual enthusiasm for English ecclesiastical architecture.

I just read this in regards to chemical weapons use:

Meanwhile, the UK’s technology minister Chris Philp says there will be a ‘dramatic increased response’ from the rest of the world if chemical weapons are used by Russia.

But earlier Boris said they wouldn’t get involved even if chemical weapons were used?

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow can I ask why it’s scarier now?
As I wasn’t alive then, born last year of the 80s but my parents were obviously and they’re not stressing about it at all.

@AgnesWestern

I just read this in regards to chemical weapons use:

Meanwhile, the UK’s technology minister Chris Philp says there will be a ‘dramatic increased response’ from the rest of the world if chemical weapons are used by Russia.

But earlier Boris said they wouldn’t get involved even if chemical weapons were used?

I assume he's being deliberately ambiguous

I think it's scarier becuase it's all new.

People under 35? or so never grew up in an us-and-them situation. People forgot nuclear weopons existed and could be used.

Now war is so much closer, a big country with nuclear weopons has invaded and people's certainty has been shaken deeply.

But it's not new. It's just that people are shocked.

@AgnesWestern

I just read this in regards to chemical weapons use:

Meanwhile, the UK’s technology minister Chris Philp says there will be a ‘dramatic increased response’ from the rest of the world if chemical weapons are used by Russia.

But earlier Boris said they wouldn’t get involved even if chemical weapons were used?

They won't want to be explicit because they don't want to find themselves painted into a corner.

And options will change every time there is a change to the situation on the ground

Oops sorry posted by accident. I've read so much about this the last few days that I get muddled where I've heard things, but I think there was something further they were considering sanctions-wise that would have a dramatic effect on the Russian economy. So I assumed he meant something like that as opposed to military involvement.

@AgnesWestern

I just read this in regards to chemical weapons use:

Meanwhile, the UK’s technology minister Chris Philp says there will be a ‘dramatic increased response’ from the rest of the world if chemical weapons are used by Russia.

But earlier Boris said they wouldn’t get involved even if chemical weapons were used?

"involved" and "responding" are quite different things.

I don’t ever remember such sanctions to be taken all at once. No one bombed nuclear fuel plants or threatened terrorist strikes against them. It just wasn’t as hot or intense.

There were sanctions, but not as dramatic or so many of them. And also we’d never had an era of relatively good relations with Russia.

But when Gorbachev arrived , it seemed like Russia would become, maybe not friends but something like that. There wasn’t as much anger around.

No one was sending arms to other countries and there weren’t refugees that l remember. Whilst the consolidation of the west is consoling, it was never as dramatic as this.

I think we got killed into a sense of false security that the Cold War was over, and we had relative peace for a long time. But this has just arrived with a bang.