Holger Roonesmaa @holger_r
I talked with an Estonian analyst who has access to info and who I regard as one of the best we have here. His main conclusion: "The danger is far from over but there is reason for a very cautious optimism. Russian advance has clearly stalled." More below:
Since last Sat it's been relatively stable on the fronts. There is an expectation of a reforming of RU units and a new line of attack, but so far little evidence of it. "If Russia doesn't achieve a remarkable advance by end of week, difficult to see how it should come at all."
The sth line of attack has split in 2, one advancing twd Mykolaiv, the other to Kryvyi Rih. This is serious risk to RU forces as the supply lines, which we already know are crap, will be dragged even longer. "This leaves the Ukrainians plenty of chance to 'beat them to pieces'.
The question is if Moscow today forces Lukashenko to send in the troops from Belarus, but BY troops' motivation is even lower than that of RU. "The Western-Ukrainian national & anti-Russian environment would be extra hostile towards them."
The idea of bringing in Syrian fighter is extra desperate. "One thing is to fight in the narrow streets of Arabian cities. It's something else in Kyiv or Kharkiv where the boulevards are 100m wide." Also refers to cold climate and low morale of Syrians.
About possible mobilization in RU. That was on the agenda last Friday in Fed Council and duma but allegedly high-ranking military re-convinced Putin. "Reserve units have no training, they even don't have enough uniforms for them."
"They've included very few reservists in Zapad exercises. Of the few thousand they usually include, the officers complain about them "messing up" the exercise."
Fatigue of RU units "massive". A third has been replaced, but incoming units have even worse quality. Another third has been destroyed, killed or wounded. Re-formation of units doesn't have a good impact on combat capability.
Ukraine's counter-offensive has so far been small-scale but when RU stalls, they have resources to start pressing. First aim would be to drive RU out of country in the North (Kyiv and Kharkiv).
Regarding Russia's shortage of missiles. "Putin was told he had 10,000 missiles. In fact, he had 1,000. It's peculiar he didn't remember how he was lying to his own bosses as a young KGB officer. Such lying is common in the culture."
It will be more difficult to gain back ground in South, also because of terrain. "In steppe you will be an open target from air."
Is this true? Had to say, but there might well be reason to support it.
Zelensky has been quoted today as saying Ukraine have 'reached a strategic turning point', which undoubtedly is of interest given the context of Lukashenko visit to Moscow today and talk of a potential Belarusian false flag incident.
Putin calling for foreign fighters also seems pretty desperate stuff for a country which supposedly has such a great army.
Of course you don't have angry Russian mothers or body bags to send home if you use foreign fighters. What was even more telling was asking for fighters who don't want to be paid. Thus trying to make it into some sort of ideological war against the west. This idea of an ideological war worked for ISIS but its kind of hard to see it working in the same way under a Russian flag. Its a different thing to have a 'religious war'.
And that doesn't address the reality here is that most mercenaries fight for money. If you look at who Wagner recruits its men from poor backgrounds you have some practical issues about how you get thousands of international fighters from around the world to Ukraine. Of course there could be attempts at effectively press ganging or conning fighters. But these men are hardly going to be high on morale. And you still have issues about equipment and (checks notes) basic uniform. You can move men, but i remain unconvinced that they have tanks and infantry vehicles they can bring with them. I'm guessing its still quite a long walk to get to the front lines in Ukraine from Russia.
The numbers of a third replaced by reverses, a third exhausted and a third destroyed seems reasonable. All estimates (US, European and Ukrainian) would put KIA plus wounded and POWs at probably about a third. The concern here has to be that if the Russians are exhausted, so are the Ukrainians (Zelensky himself is showing the strain) and theres not much hope of getting relief for the Ukrainians.