Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 10

[cakeorwine]

That filled up quick

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4497950-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-9

I'm someone with Iranian heritage. A country which has the most sanctions on it then any other. Unfortunately sanctions play into the hands of the hardliners and heavy repression prevents the population from overthrowing the government and have to put up with rigged elections at best.
Economic sanctions mean the ordinary people suffer and the regime holds on to power and wealth.
I'm quite cynical about the effects of sanctions as a punishment as it seems to punish the people who have no chance to topple the government.
When my mum moved to London in the early 70s the rial was so strong. She used to shop in Harrods as as a young woman from money she'd earned brought over, lived in Kensington etc etc. The currency became worthless by the time the Islamic regime was established and has been since. The regime have still been there for 42 years and no sign of them ever departing.

The business case for the investment in solar panels was predicated on batteries as part of the overall project

And let me guess: someone along the line decided to "cut costs" by leaving out the batteries?

It might have been mentioned above (sorry, not kept up with these threads properly) but Elon Musk is doing great work with batteries. He's a prick and I wouldn't like to sit next to him, but he is doing superb work. He built this battery farm in South Australia for a bet, after PM Malcom Turnbull dissed renewables. It stores energy from renewables and smooths the grid, and is so successful a bigger one has been built in Victoria.

Elon Musk's Battery Farm Has Been a Total Triumph. Here Comes the Sequel.
www.popularmechanics.com/science/green-tech/a34598095/elon-musk-battery-farm-sequel-australia-tesla-powerpack/

Neoen-Tesla Victorian battery starts up
www.afr.com/companies/energy/neoen-tesla-victorian-battery-starts-up-20211207-p59fmr

If Ukraine is carved up as part of peace talks, what of the women who have been raped by Russian soldiers?

Would clearly be an uneasy and very temporary form of ‘peace’.

I’ve also never felt less confident in what NATO actually achieves, surely every war would now carry the but nukes line?

To whoever asked about Russia not meeting its foreign debt obligations,

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60672085
Shane Oliver of investment management company AMP Capital believes a default on Russian debt was "effectively already occurring".
"It will only service it in much depreciated roubles anyway and foreign investors are offloading it at fire sale prices. Fortunately the global exposure to it is relatively low," he told the BBC.

It is already priced in.

@dibly

If Ukraine is carved up as part of peace talks, what of the women who have been raped by Russian soldiers?

Would clearly be an uneasy and very temporary form of ‘peace’.

I’ve also never felt less confident in what NATO actually achieves, surely every war would now carry the but nukes line?

Not if the invasion is a NATO country

@workisnotawolf

To whoever asked about Russia not meeting its foreign debt obligations,

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60672085
Shane Oliver of investment management company AMP Capital believes a default on Russian debt was "effectively already occurring".
"It will only service it in much depreciated roubles anyway and foreign investors are offloading it at fire sale prices. Fortunately the global exposure to it is relatively low," he told the BBC.

It is already priced in.

After last crash relieved to read global exposure is relatively low

the news that Russia might be starting to get supplies in by train and mass arrests in occupied areas - show things definitely aren't as good as many of us would like to believe.

www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220306-ukraine-dominates-social-media-info-war-with-russia

@Peregrina

It was someone who was defending Putin's actions as justified when set against the long history of Western aggression, starting with Vietnam, and that it was quite right that Putin had had enough. Stuff it to the elites etc.

At the same time, we have to try to understand where he is coming from. The West (primarily USA) does have a long history of what can be seen as aggression - with Vietnam turning out to be a spectacular failure. As was Afghanistan (which had also been a failure for the USSR and the British Empire before that.)

mmhmm, just like Russia invading Afghanistan, Chechnya and Syria you mean?

Neither side is covered in glory, and the USA has unforgiveably broken promises eg the Marsh Arabs, but I know which one is better to live in - the one where people just sigh at the woman in the gym who puts forward an unpopular pov, instead of the police arresting her.

Lisa O'Carroll
^NEW: Ireland has now taken in 2,500 Ukrainian refugees - justice minister Helen McEntee just now. She is at airport welcome building
"We have rooms for children, we have toys, cots, food, you know we even have the companies that have donated chargers, adapters and sim phones"^
Refugees taken to welcome building once they get to passport control and explain they are Ukrainian. They are given the equivalent of a national insurance number to access medical services and helped get accommodation if needed.
Justice minister Helen McEntee: "there are other types of supports, be a psychological being held or otherwise. there is a package that has been given to everybody when they arrive in the one stop shop that will have all of the details all of the information that they need"

@MarshaBradyo - if I get really bored this afternoon, I am going to watch today’s ECB (European Central Bank) press conference to see what they have to say about monetary policy now. It happens every 6 weeks.

Ben Wallace's Defence update to the HoC is well worth listening to. (should be on Parliament TV, from approx 12.35). I am actually quite impressed with him. Covered a lot of stuff and was well received on all sides of the House.

Is Chernobyl about to leak radiation?

Pallab Ghosh
Science correspondent, BBC News

The Ukrainian atomic energy company Energoatom has said the loss of power supply at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant could lead to the release of radioactive substances into the air, which could spread into the wider environment.

Power is needed to keep 20,000 spent fuel rods cool by circulating water in the large tank in the nuclear fuel storage facility near reactors one and three. There are back-up generators able to do this for a few days.

@DuncinToffee

Is Chernobyl about to leak radiation?

Pallab Ghosh
Science correspondent, BBC News

The Ukrainian atomic energy company Energoatom has said the loss of power supply at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant could lead to the release of radioactive substances into the air, which could spread into the wider environment.

Power is needed to keep 20,000 spent fuel rods cool by circulating water in the large tank in the nuclear fuel storage facility near reactors one and three. There are back-up generators able to do this for a few days.

If the main power is not brought back online then there is no risk of an explosion, but the water will begin to gradually evaporate and the vapour may well be radioactive, since it can contain material leached from inside the fuel rods.

But any such vapour should be kept within the building, according to Prof Claire Corkhill of Sheffield University, who is familiar with the plant. There is little danger of radioactive material being blown to other parts of the Ukraine or Belarus, she says.

"I don’t think this would lead to a release of radioactivity because it would take a very long time for the water to eventually evaporate. The spent fuel is kept in a modern building which should be sealed and have structural integrity."

Prof Corkhill added that while it would be hazardous for people to enter the facility, but very little - if any - radiation is likely to leak outside.

Of wider concern though is the fact that the air conditioning of the safe confinement structure which covers Chernobyl’s reactor number four, which was the source of the nuclear disaster in 1986, won't be working either.

That would lead to condensation which would lead to corrosion of the £1 billion structure which in turn would put the decommissioning of the facility on hold for a prolonged period, if not indefinitely.

@workisnotawolf

To whoever asked about Russia not meeting its foreign debt obligations,

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60672085
Shane Oliver of investment management company AMP Capital believes a default on Russian debt was "effectively already occurring".
"It will only service it in much depreciated roubles anyway and foreign investors are offloading it at fire sale prices. Fortunately the global exposure to it is relatively low," he told the BBC.

It is already priced in.

Thank you.

Reminder of what each one of us can do for climate change in the immediate future:

www.theccc.org.uk/the-need-to-act/what-can-we-all-do/

What can we all do?
We as individuals can all support the global effort to tackle and adapt to climate change. In the UK, our scenarios to reduce UK greenhouse gas emissions to Net Zero point to actions that individuals and households can take to reduce their carbon footprints and contribute to the UK and global goals.

The way you travel

Choose to walk and cycle or take public transport in preference to a car
Make your next car an electric one, and then charge it ‘smartly’
Minimise flying, especially long-haul, where possible
In your home

Improve the energy efficiency of your home (or ask your landlord to) through draughtproofing, improved insulation, choosing LED light-bulbs and appliances with high efficiency ratings
Set thermostats no higher than 19°C and the water temperature in heating systems no higher than 55°
Consider switching to a low-carbon heating system such as a heat pump, especially if you live off the gas grid; if you are on the gas grid consider a hybrid system
Reduce the risk of overheating in the summer by opting for thick curtains or blinds.
Install water and smart energy meters to manage water and energy use, whilst also helping to identify water leaks
What you eat and buy

Eat a healthy diet, for example with less beef, lamb and dairy.
Eliminate food waste as far as possible and make sure that you use separate food waste collections if available. Reduce, reuse and recycle your other waste too.
Use only peat-free compost.
Choose good quality products that will last, use them for longer and try to repair before you replace.
Share rather than buy items like power tools that you don’t use frequently. If you don’t/won’t use your car regularly then consider joining a car club instead.
What else?

Look for changes that you can make in your workplace or school to reduce emissions and support your colleagues to make changes too.
If you’re in a flood risk area sign up to flood warnings and devise your own household plan to prepare for possible floods
Talk about your experiences and help to raise awareness of the need to act. Consider the wider impacts of your actions (e.g. through your pension or ISA and via the companies you buy from).

The Russian central bank has also blocked the sale of foreign currency, making the Ruble non-convertible. It's pretty loo roll now.

www.barrons.com/news/russia-suspends-forex-sales-to-september-9-central-bank-01646776207

[quote TheABC]A question for the wise heads on this forum: how much does this matter?

Russia soon unable to pay it's debts warns Fitch.
||www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60672085||[/quote]
Could be as early as 15th April. Being predicted economy will go the way of Venezuela.

BUT

Russian external debt is about $478. Which sounds like a lot, but really really isn't:
tradingeconomics.com/country-list/external-debt
Ukraine's is $125037 to give you some context. No I haven't got decimal place in the wrong place by accident. See link above.

Where Russia will struggle is if everything goes tits up, it can't get external loans. My best guess is that Putin will lean on Oligarchs at this point - Patrotic Bonds to the State would be my thought. If they can get access to money (this to me would be why personal sanctions matter).

You have to examine what has happened in Venezuela for some ideas of whats to come internally:

Hyper-inflation - 80,000% at one point.
Shortages in milk, meat, coffee, rice, oil, flour, butter, basic necessities like toilet paper and medicine. So a return to empty shops and queues. (Maduro's government has blamed the shortages on "bourgeois criminals" hoarding goods - you don't have to be a genuis to work out Putin's excuse)
Planning and maintenance issues have caused electric blackouts.
Venezuelans had to occasionally resorting to eating wild fruit or rubbish.
90% of the population living in poverty.
There were reports of gasoline imports happened because of extraction issues despite their resources (this is less likely for Russia because they are still exporting).
People were able at one point to make more money online gaming, than by working. (This won't be an option for Russia...)
Unemployment reached 44% in 2019; the IMF stated that this was the highest unemployment seen in the world since the end of the Bosnian War in 1995. Thats a lot of very bored, angry Russians.

I would make a point about North Korea here though too:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-60281129
North Korea: Missile programme funded through stolen crypto, UN report says

The report also referenced a study published last month by the security firm Chainalysis that suggested North Korean cyberattacks could have netted as much as $400m worth of digital assets last year.

Now, 1) Cryptocurrencies haven't blocked Russians and are making a point of being extreme libertarians and 2) Russia has cyber capability and I'd bet a fair ability to extort. Potentially including some high profile wealthy figures.

So I'd keep an eye on this side of things much more than the debt issue...

Meanwhile:
Ukraine has just said its lost $100 billion and 50% of businesses are closed but its still managing to service its debts atm.

There is talk of writing off Ukraine's debt. Liz Truss made warm fuzzy noises about it, but no commitment. It needs to happen, and this is much more of an issue than Russia's debt because there is much more of an exposure.

This needs to be higher up the agenda...

Are batteries, the 'next Gold Rush'?

A young family member works in battery development. He would say yes. (He’s in great demand as it’s such a specialised area. Can pretty much name his price. No one thought a degree in chemical computing would get him very far after he failed to get into medical school.)

I’d always thought Elon Musk was rich enough to do what he is atm due to focusing on batteries

[quote workisnotawolf]@MarshaBradyo - if I get really bored this afternoon, I am going to watch today’s ECB (European Central Bank) press conference to see what they have to say about monetary policy now. It happens every 6 weeks.[/quote]
Sounds quite good actually!

I can’t watch stuff but always interested in economic side of anything

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/biden-to-sign-crypto-order-as-industry-faces-sanctions-pressure
Biden to Sign Crypto Order as Firms Face Sanctions Pressure
Governmentwide plan poised to be announced this week
National security, regulation to be focus of executive order

Keep your eyes on this.

I think this might have a more interesting effect than Russian default.

@PerkingFaintly - no, the batteries just haven't been delivered yet (ordered as part of the project) because of a global shortage. So don't assume

What was cancelled by t'committee "because the club couldn't afford it just yet" was the ground source pump project (to the frustration of the project manager ). He's been doing a grand job applying for grants etc - and now can do it pretty much full time since he retired a few years ago (was a well regarded Chartered surveyor/Project Manager).

At least the new floodlights he's installed on one of pitches (to increase training space) are "low er " energy ones - even if they're not bright enough to permit official games to be held on them. Now, if it would just stop raining so that that pitch was not quite so muddy, despite said project manager's stalwart efforts to improve its drainage

The link indicates Russia's sovereign debt is USD 489 billion while Ukraine's is USD 125281 million (so USD 125 billion) (although that's as of September 2021 and Ukraine has since incurred further debt in the form of war bonds).

Can we stop using the daily mail as a credible news source?

It's making a joke of the thread.

The New York Times @NewYorkTimes
Russian conscripts were sent into battle in Ukraine, and some were taken prisoner, Russian officials said — an embarrassing admission after President Vladimir Putin’s pledge that conscripts “will not participate” in the war.

Always good to see reverse ferrets...