Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 10

[cakeorwine]

That filled up quick

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4497950-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-9

Are batteries, the 'next Gold Rush'?

(And why the fuck haven't I invested in them yet?)

@Tuba437

With Zelenskey claims about being ready to compromise on crimea and Dombas and the sense he doesn't fancy joining Nato anymore. Mixed with the high keel talks tomo between foreign ministers in Turkey. Is this our best chance of some sort of negotiated peace tomorrow?

It is certainly the first best chance we have had since Russia invaded.

I doubt that a solution will come out of the talks tomorrow, but hope that perhaps by the end of the day a solution will be closer.

@RedToothBrush

Are batteries, the 'next Gold Rush'?

(And why the fuck haven't I invested in them yet?)

Or concrete ...

www.wired.co.uk/article/energy-vault-gravity-storage

@Tuba437

With Zelenskey claims about being ready to compromise on crimea and Dombas and the sense he doesn't fancy joining Nato anymore. Mixed with the high keel talks tomo between foreign ministers in Turkey. Is this our best chance of some sort of negotiated peace tomorrow?

Your post makes me feel more hopeful than I have, I appreciate it

And hopefully closer

Hence the US trying to run Russia’s capital right down, but not sure how successful this will be.

Wasn't this some of the impetus behind the Cold War arms race - bankrupt the USSR? This succeeded, caused a vacuum and gave rise to Putin.

Erdogan to welcome Israeli Pres Herzog on Wed, Greek PM Mitsotakis on Sat, and host Ukraine-Russia peace talks in between, in Antalya on Thurs.

Strangely this makes me quite confident.

www.politico.eu/article/western-europe-listen-to-the-baltic-countries-that-know-russia-best-ukraine-poland/
‘We told you so!’ How the West didn’t listen to the countries that know Russia best
Poland and the Baltic states understand the Kremlin better than Western governments, but found their warnings about Putin ignored.

“The Western Europeans pooh-poohed and patronized us for these last 30 years,” said Radosław Sikorski, a former Polish foreign minister. “For years [they] were patronizing us about our attitude: ‘Oh, you know, you over-nervous, over-sensitive Central Europeans are prejudiced against Russia.'”

The Easterners say they ran into a brick wall when they made pleas for increased NATO deployments, drew attention to cyberattacks and called on Berlin not to let the EU be held hostage by giant pipelines pumping gas straight into Germany. The outspoken, pugnacious Sikorski, then defense minister, triggered outrage in thin-skinned diplomatic circles in 2006 when he dared compare the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream gas pipeline project, which bypassed Poland, to the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact of 1939 that divided Poland between the Nazis and Soviets.

Polish and Baltic leaders saw Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 as a defining threshold that signaled that Putin needed to be stopped with a genuine show of force from the West, or otherwise he would go on to attack more targets. In fruitless meetings in Brussels, however, Polish and Baltic diplomats found that most of the European Union was reluctant to impose heavy sanctions on Moscow despite its invasion of an EU ally. The furious anti-Putin camp dubbed the Italian-led opposition to sanctions as the “Club Med” grouping.

And

The most recent cycle of Russian aggression has many of its origins in 2007. That year, Putin made a speech at the Munich Security Conference that provided a bedrock for many of the decisions that followed. In the speech, he lashed out at the U.S. for creating a unipolar world “in which there is one master, one sovereign,” criticized NATO’s eastward expansion and challenged the post-Cold War order in Europe.

Sikorski, who became Poland’s top diplomat the same year, began asking for more NATO forces in his country. After all, Germany had 35,000 American troops stationed there, and a further effort toward rebalancing of power in the face of Russia’s military modernization campaigns seemed to make sense.

Not everyone in NATO thought so at the time.

“When I demanded on numerous occasions that our membership in NATO be fulfilled by physical presence — and I was only asking for two brigades, which is to say 10,000 American troops — this was regarded as outrageous. Germany in particular, but others too, for the first time in history found themselves surrounded by exclusively friendly states. And they didn’t feel our pain of being a flank country, of being on the edge of the world of democracy, rule of law and security,” Sikorski said.

And

Estonians remember another episode in 2007.

In April, the Baltic country’s computer servers were hit by a massive wave of DDoS (distributed denial-of-service) attacks on public and private websites alike, essentially shutting the whole country down digitally for weeks. Nearly a million “zombie” computers were deployed, according to the then-defense minister, shortly after a plan to relocate a Soviet “Monument to the Liberators of Estonia” out of Tallinn’s city center.

While the Russian government repeatedly denied involvement in the cyberattacks, Estonia was unconvinced. But what was even more shocking to officials in Tallinn was yet to follow, when they presented their case to fellow NATO nations.

“We were told by some of our NATO allies in Europe that, ‘Oh you don’t know what you’re talking about, you’re just being Russophobic’ — and this at a time by people who wouldn’t know a computer from a toaster while we were already then part of the most digitally advanced [country] in Europe,” said Toomas Hendrik Ilves, who was the Estonian president at the time of the cyberattacks. He was born in Sweden after his parents fled the Soviet occupation. Eventually, NATO conducted an internal assessment

And

He [Linas Linkevičius - former Lithuanian Foreign Minister] stressed that the West bears no blame for what’s happening in Ukraine today, as it is entirely Russia’s own doing. Still, he said, if “those who would have had opportunity in time to do something, didn’t [do anything], they must share responsibility.”

The report yesterday also gave me confidence, that said the peace talks were alot further along than the west was being told. Which would make sense as I never understood if the demands weren't changing why they kept meeting for talks.

Part of me thinks the consistent asking for a no fly zone and it being rejected will give zelenskey that face saving (not that he should need them as he has been more than heroic) reason to concede the donbas and crimea regions to save the rest of the country. This may just be me being over optimistic. I wandered if this is why the attack on Kyiv has stalled while these negotiations are happening.

Olga Tokariuk @olgatokariuk
Russian occupation forces torture the staff of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant they captured four days ago, Ukraine energy minister German Galushchenko said. 'There are about 500 Russian soldiers and 50 units of heavy equipment inside the station'

'A breakdown at a nuclear power plant due to the use of weapons by Russian troops will lead to a disaster for the whole of Europe. The responsibility for this will be entirely on Russia', he said^

'If a breakdown happens, Europeans will be forced to switch the comfort of their homes to radiation shelters. We must stop Russia's nuclear terrorism together. We must do it now – until it's too late', Ukraine's energy minister urged

In the latest developments, Chernobyl nuclear power plant, that has been also captured by Russians, was fully disconnected from the power grid, Ukraine's state energy company Ukrenergo reported

Chernobyl 'Nuclear station has no power supply. The military actions are in progress, so there is no possibility to restore the lines. Slavutych city [near to which the plant is located] is also out of power supply'.

Ukraine's atomic energy Energoatom said that without electricity it is impossible to ensure the cooling of spent nuclear fuel stored at Chernobyl NPP. 'The temperature in the holding pools will increase, release of radioactive substances into the environment may occur'

This also raises concerns about backup generators. You'd probably power them via diesel. Which in a war zone might be problematic to get hold of (especially if you aren't in control and Russians want to use the diesel for something else)

I spoke to my Ukrainian friend today and she is feeling optimistic that this will all be over by the end of the month. Her family are in Lviv so unaffected by the war but certainly anxious and aware of the thousand of refugees passing through their city. They are not leaving. It’s only one person’s view but she says Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk are already considered Russian by everyone she knows and the Ukrainian govt just need to formally acknowledge that. She also think joining NATO is madness in terms of winding up Russia but that most Ukranians would like to be in the EU.

Clearly this is just one individual but I found it interesting and reassuring.

That is worrying about the reactors.

Ukraine's UK ambassador urges temporary easing of visa rules
Jennifer Scott
Political reporter, BBC News

Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK is urging the UK government to drop visa rules for a limited time to allow refugees to get out of his country faster.

Appearing before a committee of MPs, Vadym Prystaiko, says over seven million people have now been displaced as a result of the war with Russia.

He insists few Ukrainians will want to move away from their “natural home” near “Slavic tribes” in Eastern Europe, and the government hopes to welcome them home soon to rebuild.

And he tells MPs he knows immigration is a very sensitive issue in the UK, and any changes are “frankly for you to decide”.

But Prystaiko asks MPs if they can vote for "some temporary releasing of us from the rules to allow people to get here”.

He adds: “I would be happy if all the barriers are dropped for some period of time when we can get maximum people, then we will deal with that and my embassy is here to help.”

Been a long time Mumsnet visitor, dipping in and out over the years and these threads have finally convinced me to create an account. The rate at which they fill up is impressive. From a lurker- thank you all

Worrying news about the reactors, surely if they did blow up or radiation escaped it would go in the direction of Russia too?

Batteries. Its going to be all about batteries.

Yes. Without wanting to derail the thread too far, it's been All About Batteries for the last 25 years (to my knowledge).

Advances in battery technology were what allowed mobile phones and laptops to take off; battery size, weight and life previously being the key limiting factors. It's a virtuous circle, because once mobile phones/devices became useable and affordable, sales thereof provided the funding and impetus for further battery development.

Home generation and electric vehicles are also in a virtuous circle.

The other way to store solar power moderately efficiently is to use excess electricity to pre-heat your hot-water tank, topping up with your usual gas or electric heater. So prettybird, it's hard to see what's going on at your rugby club. If they have well-insulated hot-water storage and aren't trying to store the heat over too many days, they should be getting the benefit of solar. But it is easy to create white elephants by failing to match generating/storage system with expected usage!

@Motherdare

I spoke to my Ukrainian friend today and she is feeling optimistic that this will all be over by the end of the month. Her family are in Lviv so unaffected by the war but certainly anxious and aware of the thousand of refugees passing through their city. They are not leaving. It’s only one person’s view but she says Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk are already considered Russian by everyone she knows and the Ukrainian govt just need to formally acknowledge that. She also think joining NATO is madness in terms of winding up Russia but that most Ukranians would like to be in the EU.

Clearly this is just one individual but I found it interesting and reassuring.

Everyone thought WWI would be over by Christmas too though

So, ill hang on to the bucket of salt im keeping for sanity a while longer if thats ok...

@Neverendingdust

Been a long time Mumsnet visitor, dipping in and out over the years and these threads have finally convinced me to create an account. The rate at which they fill up is impressive. From a lurker- thank you all

Sorry. You are now fucked. Welcome to the Hotel California.

Looks like a swing back to nuclear energy after unfashionable for a while in 90s etc

And on shore wind. Very interesting piece on Times radio

Just caught up with today’s posts - thank you all, as usual.

Incidentally I heard Jenny Hill on R4 this morning reporting from Moscow. Listening to her report it was a master class in not saying anything that would break the “fake news” laws. Nonetheless, Russia is absolutely not where I would choose to be right now. Kudos again to all the journalists covering this war.

PRAGUE, March 9 (Reuters) - The Czech government approved on Wednesday the dispatch of up to 650 soldiers to Slovakia to bolster NATO's eastern flank, the Defence Ministry said.

Quick question. Do we expect sanctions to be dropped if a peace deal is made? I'm assuming they wouldn't all be dropped together but I imagine they may be used as part of the bargaining during the talks?

So nucleur reactors. I thought this might get its own thread. What could happen?

The poor people trapped in there. This is obviously intentional.

What happens if you cut power to nuclear reactor!?

@Tuba437

With Zelenskey claims about being ready to compromise on crimea and Dombas and the sense he doesn't fancy joining Nato anymore. Mixed with the high keel talks tomo between foreign ministers in Turkey. Is this our best chance of some sort of negotiated peace tomorrow?

Tomorrow?

No chance.

IMO, the end of this war will result in some kind of partition of Ukraine.

"The response that we are getting from the NATO countries is that they are not ready to even discuss having us in NATO, not for the next period of five or 10 years. We are ready to discuss some non-NATO models. For example, there could be direct guarantees by different countries like the U.S., China, UK, maybe Germany and France. We are open to discussing such things in a broader circle, not only in bilateral discussions with Russia but also with other partners."

Source: Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia

www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-open-discussing-non-nato-models-negotiator-tells-fox-news-2022-03-06/

And:

"I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that ... NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine. The alliance is afraid of controversial things, and confrontation with Russia.

I'm talking about security guarantees.

[Donbas and Luhansk] have not been recognized by anyone but Russia, these pseudo republics. But we can discuss and find the compromise on how these territories will live on."

"What is important to me is how the people in those territories are going to live who want to be part of Ukraine, who in Ukraine will say that they want to have them in.

So the question is more difficult than simply acknowledging them.

"This is another ultimatum and we are not prepared for ultimatums. What needs to be done is for President Putin to start talking, start the dialogue instead of living in the informational bubble without oxygen."

Source: Ukrainian President Zelensky

www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-russia-ukraine-says-no-longer-insisting-on-nato-membership

In other words, Ukraine wants a security guarantee agreement from the United States, United Kingdom, France and so on on a personal State to State level.

With zero involvement from NATO.

Zelensky also seems to be open to discussing the possibility of Ukrainian partition which is something I discussed on the previous page or two as the most likely outcome.

But partition is not easy or simple to do given both Russia and Ukraine will have a significant minority in either state who don't want to be part of one or the other.

So, it looks to me that Ukraine is talking about:

1. Security guarantee for Ukrainian Security as a state similar to the Budapest Memorandum. But much more robust and binding on the West.

2. Security guarantees for any Ukrainian minority who might yet find themselves living on the Russian side of the border in the east.

As I said, I see this ending in partition with a smaller Ukraine and slightly bigger Russia.

In my view, it's definitely far, far too early to feel even slightly hopeful. Any negotiations between Ukraine and Russia has a very long way to go.

The longer Ukrainian resistance continues, the more they strengthen their hand at the negotiation table. Yet Ukraine still lacks the military capability to push Russia out of Ukraine completely.

That gives Russia a certain degree of bargaining power.

The idea of non-NATO security guaranteed arrangements for Ukraine is not new and has been done before - the Budapest Memorandum.

Russia repeatedly broke that agreement whereas the United States, United Kingdom and, to a lesser degree, France have not kept their side of the Security defence.

Neither has China who, along with France, didn't agree to do as much as Russia, USA and UK.

Putin's view is he blames various countries for the problems in Ukraine - USA, UK, Poland and even Lithuania. He really, really does not want the main western powers involved in Ukraine in any way.

Right now, I can't see him agreeing to it. He might well do if Russia is hurt enough economically, but that will take months to really bite.

By then, a lot of death and destruction will have occurred. As of this moment, Putin believes he can either take Kyiv OR raze important Ukrainian cities to the ground in a scorched earth policy.

Very difficult to see how a new security arrangement can or will be agreed right now.

How different would it fundamentally be from the failed 1994 Budapest Memorandum?

Russia has form for breaking such agreements. And now, the West has form for failing to properly live up to its own obligations.

Very worrying about the nuclear reactors. Wonder what the wind situation is at the moment/likely to be over the next few days.

Another thing about being less dependent on other countries - most of the potassium chloride needed for fertilisers comes from Russia and Belarus, and they are limiting exports now.